Blackjack with 50% pen...

I was wondering what the Player edge (if any) and other relevant*** figures would be for a,
"Perfect information^^^" counter with 50% penetration for this game (see game rules below).

***: If there is a player edge for this game, then things like, average % of hands per shoe the player has an edge, the average advantage per hand, and anything else you think would be important.

^^^: By this I mean, you know the exact deck composition at all times.

Game rules:

6 decks
BJ Pays: 3/2
Hole Card: European/No hole card
Double: on 9 to 11 only
Split: Once
Double after split: yes
Surrender: Yes vs 2-9, Early vs 10, and No vs Ace
Penetration: 50%
Table limits: 1 - 100 (units)

Thanks in advance
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Edit (about 1:10 am)

I think I have asked a question like this before, but it was only for 20% penetration, the "spread"/ table limits were not as good as this one, and also that game didn't show you when it was shuffling

I don't know what the exact player edge would be, but if the player knew the EXACT deck composition at all times it would be gigantic. However, regardless of how intently you can scrutinize the shuffling, I doubt it would be possible to gain anything close to perfect knowledge of the composition.

I've only ever run simple simulations (so the bet is based on the count and sticking with regular strategy) so don't have the figures for 50%. I did use UK based but allowing any doubles (i.e. it allowed the soft doubles as well), infinite splits, but no surrender.

The measure I used is that you make a bet of $100 anytime the shoe is in your favour and pass on other hands. You see how much, on average, you would make per 100 hands watched. (I wasn't using this to analyse Blackjack per se but developing another game which was countable and needed an idea how this compared to BJ.)

$27.20 Six decks 83% penetration.
$18.36 Six decks 66% penetration.
$ 1.75 Six decks imitating CSM (I can't remember the logic I used for this).

It looks as if you would be making about 10c/hand, - the profit for accurate tracking and adjustment to play possibly offsets the House edge on the mandatory $1 bet to play the game. Hardly going to make a fortune.

I can see the logic of playing online and devoping a side program to keep track of the shoe ramping your bet to $100 when it's right. It's very risky from a money magaement point of view and there's the chance the casino will eventually spot you. If a casino is offering 50% penetration then one might imagine they know the risks involved and have added some tracking software to look for ramped up betting; also they will become curious if you keep on winning.

Quote: ksdjdj

I was wondering what the Player edge (if any) and other relevant*** figures would be for a,
"Perfect information^^^" counter with 50% penetration for this game (see game rules below).

I guess you are hoping to robotically play and crush an online game.
Though the edge could be significant, with big spread and LOTS of wonging out, I tell you now you would be wasting your time. If you are constantly calculating the deck composition and looking for your edge, you can be assured that the casino has it calculated too and would spot your strategy very quickly. Then your ass is grass and you would be evicted from that site.

Not so fast, all you pessimists...better things have happened. I agree, there are a lot of pitfalls, however, it might be good enough to where you could do well and get you some money before the s*** hits the fan. If you have the bank roll, the knowledge, and the willingness to try it, it could turn out well.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Thanks for all the replies.

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks for all the replies.

Use Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer to beat it !

Thanks ssho88,

Also, I ran a Combinatorial Analyzer with a simulator, and it confirms what has been said by charliepatrick earlier in the thread

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks ssho88,

Also, I ran a Combinatorial Analyzer with a simulator, and it confirms what has been said by charliepatrick earlier in the thread

How you ran a Combinatorial Analyzer with a simulator ? It took days to complete the 1million shoe simulations ?

Quote: ssho88

How you ran a Combinatorial Analyzer with a simulator ? It took days to complete the 1million shoe simulations ?

Sorry if I was using the wrong terms., but I was using trial version of a program called "cvdataa.exe".

Anyway here are the results of the latest one I did:

Betting Spread: 1 unit when TC <=0, 100 units for TC >=1

Rounds: 1,000,000,000
Shoes: 33,531,614
Win-rate: 0.0403956 units per hand
"Total Bet Advantage" %: 0.229
"Initial Bet Advantage" %: 0.248

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I think I will not be testing this any further, because it is only worth about $1 per hand playing $25 as 1 unit and $2,500 as 100 units (the table min and max).

If you want the name of the software provider and game , then PM me and I will probably tell you.

Again, thanks for everyone's input

I'm sure this has been beaten to a pulp, just wanted to throw my generic "50% pen beatable?" response in...

1) You have to have a massive bet spread.
2) You don't have the bankroll to have that massive of a bet spread.
3) The variance would be absolutely insane.
4) There are much better, lower variance, opportunities out there... even with just counting and not referring to more advanced play.