SOFT 18
Soft 18 vs the dealer 3 card.
There are only three cards that could improve my hand; A, 2 or 3. There are six cards that could lower the count of my Soft 18, a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 giving me a new total of 12 thru 17. Of course there are a lot of ten counts that do not change the total. Not as good as my 18 to start. Dealer has to hit and his odds of bust is 37% (rounding). Counting his bust odds plus probability of his stand on 17, the odds of me beating the dealer is 50% if I stand. That may sound like 50/50, but if I Hit there are 6 cards that will lower my total for less that a 50% chance of a win.
What am I missing here?
Why do you think a three card hard 18 isn't as good as your starting two card soft 18?
| Rule | Dealer Up | Player | EV stand | EV hit | EV double | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S17 | 3 | 7,A | 0.151119 | 0.090730 | 0.179330 | source |
| H17 | 3 | 7,A | 0.141584 | 0.088230 | 0.175215 | source |
You can see that hitting A,7 is much worse than standing. But doubling A,7 is almost twice as good as hitting and better than standing.
Quote: billryanThe next card is going to be one of thirteen possibilities. If six of the thirteen cause your hand to deprecate, then seven either improve it or keep it neutral. Whichever number is higher is the better long term choice.
Why do you think a three card hard 18 isn't as good as your starting two card soft 18?
That’s really incorrect advice. You need to weight how the improvements and depreciations impact EV.
To the OP, I’m not aware of the basic strategy that says to hit a soft 18 against a dealer 3 ever. Would you mind linking to what says that?
Doubling is better than standing because it lets you bet more money into a +EV situation even though the hit sacrifices some EV vs standing. Make sense? Think about it as $10 at a 8.5% edge is better than only $5 at a 14% edge.
Quote: unJonThat’s really incorrect advice. You need to weight how the improvements and depreciations impact EV.
To the OP, I’m not aware of the basic strategy that says to hit a soft 18 against a dealer 3 ever. Would you mind linking to what says that?
Doubling is better than standing because it lets you bet more money into a +EV situation even though the hit sacrifices some EV vs standing. Make sense? Think about it as $10 at a 8.5% edge is better than only $5 at a 14% edge.
I'm not sure how it is incorrect advice when your advice is exactly the same. Yes, there are other considerations, but the bottom line is you want as much money out there as possible. A twenty page exploration of every single possibility isn't needed.
Quote: billryanI'm not sure how it is incorrect advice when your advice is exactly the same. Yes, there are other considerations, but the bottom line is you want as much money out there as possible. A twenty page exploration of every single possibility isn't needed.
Fair. I got caught up in the OP saying it was a Dh situation and thought you were agreeing.
Doubling S18v3 is correct. You're diminishing the expected return of the hand per unit bet slightly, but you get to DOUBLE YOUR BET.
If I gave you the option of
a) bet $1 with a 55% chance of winning/45% chance of losing
b) bet $2 with a 53% chance of winning/47% chance of losing
You'd pick option b if your goal is to win the most money.
Quote: PawpawYes, every strategy card out there, WinStar, Vegas, The Wizard of Odds or internet, shows hit the A, 7. It appears part of that reason is the probability of outcome on the dealer's hand.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
There is not a single strategy card posted on wizardofodds that says to hit A,7 vs a dealer 3.
That's because that is the WRONG PLAY.
If you can't double, you stand.
Thanks to all for posting.
EV goes up on double because you double your bet size. So you win more. So more EV.Quote: PawpawRight you are in your exact statement. I have mixed the meaning of words here. Taking a "hit" and "double" both mean you get a third card. Basic strategy shows to double when you can and I was taking that to mean hit and or double if I have funds or feelings for that. So it is stand or double, never hit. Last thing, can you explain why the EV drops off if you hit and the EV goes up if you double. Seems both numbers are based on the step of taking one card. Are those numbers on the Wizard's table based on projected bankroll over time or on a statistical probability on the next card? If I take a hit, I am worse off. If I double, I am better off even though I just took a hit with more money added to the bet. 3 7,A EV 0.151119 Hit 0.090730 Double 0.179330
Thanks to all for posting.
Quote: PawpawOK, thanks, the EV is based on money, not on cards.
EV means expected value and equals the amount of $ you are expected to win or lose.
