MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:35:12 PM permalink
Hello. I have a coupon that allows me to push a hand of 22. I can hold onto the coupon until my first 22. It doesn't apply to doubles or splits. What is the value of this?

Thanks.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:05:11 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

Hello. I have a coupon that allows me to push a hand of 22. I can hold onto the coupon until my first 22. It doesn't apply to doubles or splits. What is the value of this?

Thanks.



One betting unit. It turns a sure loss (-1 unit) into a sure push (0 units).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:20:13 PM permalink
I believe something like 4.x% percent iirc. Would be worth close to 6% if you could double according to blackjackreview.com. Definitely hit your 12 vs 4-6 with the coupon if you’re going to leave once you use it.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:18:53 PM permalink
Did not this come up on latest GWAE podcast?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:33:16 PM permalink
If you mean the Anthony Curtis GWAE, then maybe, as the coupon I'm talking about is part of the LVA book. But I don't recall any discussion of its value.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:36:55 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

One betting unit. It turns a sure loss (-1 unit) into a sure push (0 units).



If you offered to simply pay me one unit, I think that's better than the coupon, because I don't have to play any -EV hands to get that unit. So my intuition is that the value is less than one unit. The fact that the 22 might take a while to happen makes it less valuable...right...?
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:19:42 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

If you offered to simply pay me one unit, I think that's better than the coupon, because I don't have to play any -EV hands to get that unit. So my intuition is that the value is less than one unit. The fact that the 22 might take a while to happen makes it less valuable...right...?



But if someone was definitely going to play blackjack anyway , with or without buying the coupon , then wouldn’t the prior -EV hands necessary to use it not matter ?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:21:32 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I believe something like 4.x% percent iirc. Would be worth close to 6% if you could double according to blackjackreview.com. Definitely hit your 12 vs 4-6 with the coupon if you’re going to leave once you use it.


The answer above seems to be the most correct so far. If I were to guess, I would say the value of the coupon is 3.75%^^^ (or more) based on the limited information I have found so far.

^^^: Until you have a better answer/ reply, I would use 3.75% as the "rough value" for the coupon.

Also, it was quite hard for me to find anything about "% of hands where a player busts on 22", but here is a link below that may be of some use:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/entry.php?55-Player-Bust-Rates ***

***: The actual value for you could likely be less than the % figure in the above link, because with that figure "...split hands count...".

Lastly, paraphrasing what mcallister said, you should hit H12 vs "everything" while you still have the coupon (there may be some other BS exceptions, but generally play BS for all other hands, IMO).

----
Update (about 1050 pm):

Some of my reply above was still being written/re-written, so that is why my post above may look a bit different to anyone quoting an earlier version of it (see post below, for one example of this).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 4, 2020
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:30:47 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think the answer above is the most correct so far. It was hard for me to find anything about "% of hands where a player busts on 22", but here is a link below:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/entry.php?55-Player-Bust-Rates

Note: The actual value for you will be less than the % figure in the link/graph because with that figure "...split hands count...".

Lastly, paraphrasing what mcallister said, you should hit H12 vs "everything" (while you still have the coupon).



What would you do with A-A v dealer A or dealer 10?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:57:56 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

What would you do with A-A v dealer A or dealer 10?


If it is a game with "American" hole card rules, I would:
1) split A-A v dealer A
2) split A-A v dealer 10

Note : This is correct for both S17 and H17 "dealer rules".

---
Update (1110 pm):

I used "infinite deck", and can not DAS or re-split A's.

S17: for hitting AA with this coupon, it costs a BS player less than 15.5% in EV vs a dealer 10 and that it costs a BS player less than 3.5% in EV vs a dealer A.

H17: for hitting AA with this coupon, it costs a BS player less than 7.25% in EV vs a dealer A (for "vs a dealer 10", the answer is the same as it is for "S17" above)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 3, 2020

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