tyler498
tyler498
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
December 23rd, 2019 at 11:51:54 PM permalink
Hey guys,
I'm used to sticking to shoe games when counting to have some longevity, but near where I live right now the conditions for shoe games are crappy, so I'm exploring working the 2D games. Since this is a bit outside my bread and butter, I need some advice:
The 2D rules are just as crappy: h17, No DAS, Double only 9-10-11, no surrender. No resplit aces and no hitting split aces.
WOO shoes an initial house edge for BS with cut card of: -0.71932%
The upside is the pen is very good. Often 0.3 to 0.4 decks when not a lot of players. 0.5 decks on a full table.
I have checked some tables for H17, No DAS no surrender, BUT DA2 and with a 1-4 spread and indices I am getting a roughly 1.2% IBA, which is pretty good to me.
question 1: What's the damage of Double only 9-11? I couldn't find data on it but I'm sure this is particularly bad for counters since you cant double the soft hands on high counts.
question 2: better a low spread alone or higher spread with others?
Explanation: this place has very little heat, so I can get away with 1-4 easily playing heads up, but more could get noticed. But on full tables, I have seen players randomly go from table min to table max (300$) and back to min randomly one hand to the other (players were not counting) and they were getting zero heat. These guys could provide great cover for me as I don't get noticed betting small most of the time and then going to 150 or 200. The dealers don't even call checks play anymore on me since the guy next is betting 300. Problem with that is not only the game is slow, but we get about 4 hands per shoe if the table is really full then we shuffle, which means I don't often get to play the hands right before the shuffle card which tend to have the extreme true counts, but I could spread 1-12 easily.
Which game would you prefer?
Romes
Romes
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Minty
December 24th, 2019 at 12:04:05 AM permalink
Q1: You can plug in the rules above to the Wizards house edge calculator. Set it to DA2, then change it to D9-11 and see the difference and that will tell you the damage of the D9-11 rule.

Q2: "There are other players at the table?" Whether there are other players at the game or not pretty much doesn't matter here. At the end of the day the pit and surveillance are going to be looking for someone fluctuating their bets, and then run them down (which is even easier in short deck games). As with most joints, the higher the spread, the more risk of getting the boot, but the higher the EV. One thing I like doing to try to get the best of both worlds is jump up a color but then lower the spread. So for example instead of a 1-15 spread ($5-75) with red chips, try out a 1-4 spread ($25-$100) with green chips. You can usually get your max bet out by TC +3 with the shorter spread too, which will definitely also help you maximize your EV. Don't forget to take bankroll, kelly, and RoR considerations in to account, which will increase a bit with your average bet increasing, but if you're properly funded for red chips (most aren't) then "usually" you're still properly funded for a green chip low spread play.

Speed should also be taken in to account. You stated that you only get like 4 rounds per deal on a full table. Go see how many hands per hour that gets you as opposed to heads up. Your hands per hour are super important. More important than the rules.

If this were some silly voting thing, I'd still vote you play shoe games.... well, pending your situation I guess. If you only have 1 or 2 local shops to play at and don't plan to travel, ABSOLUTELY stick to shoe games. You can get years of longevity on shoe games at the lower limits with all of the little tricks, etc. If you're not worried at all about getting backed off, comps locked, etc, etc, then by all means hit the DD games. While the rules are hideous, the PEN sounds interesting.

I've always said my list of importance with counting is as follows:

1) Tolerance
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Rules
...etc
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Joined: Jun 15, 2018
December 24th, 2019 at 12:34:06 AM permalink
Just when I was getting ready to press my bet after a win during a positive count, the dealer knew too.
tyler498
tyler498
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
December 24th, 2019 at 1:53:33 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Q1: You can plug in the rules above to the Wizards house edge calculator. Set it to DA2, then change it to D9-11 and see the difference and that will tell you the damage of the D9-11 rule.

Q2: "There are other players at the table?" Whether there are other players at the game or not pretty much doesn't matter here. At the end of the day the pit and surveillance are going to be looking for someone fluctuating their bets, and then run them down (which is even easier in short deck games). As with most joints, the higher the spread, the more risk of getting the boot, but the higher the EV. One thing I like doing to try to get the best of both worlds is jump up a color but then lower the spread. So for example instead of a 1-15 spread ($5-75) with red chips, try out a 1-4 spread ($25-$100) with green chips. You can usually get your max bet out by TC +3 with the shorter spread too, which will definitely also help you maximize your EV. Don't forget to take bankroll, kelly, and RoR considerations in to account, which will increase a bit with your average bet increasing, but if you're properly funded for red chips (most aren't) then "usually" you're still properly funded for a green chip low spread play.

Speed should also be taken in to account. You stated that you only get like 4 rounds per deal on a full table. Go see how many hands per hour that gets you as opposed to heads up. Your hands per hour are super important. More important than the rules.

If this were some silly voting thing, I'd still vote you play shoe games.... well, pending your situation I guess. If you only have 1 or 2 local shops to play at and don't plan to travel, ABSOLUTELY stick to shoe games. You can get years of longevity on shoe games at the lower limits with all of the little tricks, etc. If you're not worried at all about getting backed off, comps locked, etc, etc, then by all means hit the DD games. While the rules are hideous, the PEN sounds interesting.

I've always said my list of importance with counting is as follows:

1) Tolerance
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Rules
...etc



Thanks Romes for the detailed answer as usual!
1) I know that part. I just assumed it would have a much bigger impact on the counter than the average player?
2) I typically stay at shoe games, but the one there is H17 with 1.5 deck pen. .. gotta go to the high limit (25$ high limit lol) for a S17, but no surrender.
I don't mind the 25$ limit, and I have the bankroll to spread to 300 or 400 and used to do that consistently. But then the problem is I often found myself to be literally the only player in the highlimit room, outnumbered by 2 pit bosses so that wouldn't last very long.
The H17 10$ shoes are crowded and slow as hell, that's when I got bored making 20$/h EV when I'm used to play 25$ to 400$ spreads heads-up PA rules and nobody would care. I guess I was spoiled a bit in that aspect.
I originally dismissed their DD game because of the rules, but when I figured the shoes will not be worth my time I looked again, and noticed dealers cutting a third of a deck!
I assumed a crowded table with people fluctuating their bets more than me would provide cover on DD, even with a bigger spread the EV would still be worse if I'm playing half the number of hands per hour, but I thought that would give me some longevity on DD...
If they do replay the tapes afterwards then yeah.. it won't matter much
Romes
Romes
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December 25th, 2019 at 9:53:24 PM permalink
Quote: tyler498

...I assumed a crowded table with people fluctuating their bets more than me would provide cover on DD...

There's a reason counters often avoid one another, and don't play at the same table... these guys fluctuating their bets wildly (even in the right and wrong times) still will match you from time to time. In the end it's not always the camo you think it is, and it can even hurt your image because if they're spreading wildly and the pit calls in to review THEM then guess who's gonna get reviewed along side them? "Oh bob, those guys are idiots, but that guy in seat 4 does raise his bet with the count!"
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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