Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
• Posts: 2
December 11th, 2019 at 7:17:33 PM permalink
Hi, Just making sure I understand the Blackjack hand calculator. Let's assume The dealer card is a 5 showing and I have an 8 and 10. Calculator says:

Surrender -0.500000
STAND +0.195388
Hit -0.612793
Double -1.225586

So, my assumption is with a 100 dollar bet I should average a \$19 win. 100 occurrences at 100 = 1900 But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins. To win 1900 in 100 hands I need what 60 wins and 40 losses to win 2000. 59 wins gets 1800.

This appears to be a 59.5 win %. Am I correct?
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 922
December 11th, 2019 at 8:33:41 PM permalink
Quote: Bucky

Hi, Just making sure I understand the Blackjack hand calculator. Let's assume The dealer card is a 5 showing and I have an 8 and 10. Calculator says:

Surrender -0.500000
STAND +0.195388
Hit -0.612793
Double -1.225586

So, my assumption is with a 100 dollar bet I should average a \$19 win. 100 occurrences at 100 = 1900 But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins. To win 1900 in 100 hands I need what 60 wins and 40 losses to win 2000. 59 wins gets 1800.

This appears to be a 59.5 win %. Am I correct?

When you stand on 18 vs dealer's 5 up, the dealer could end up with a total of 18, too. To calculate your probability of winning, you would need to know the probability of a push as well as your EV.

You're right--if your EV = 0.19 and the probability of a push is 0, then your probability of winning would be 0.595.

But if your EV = 0.19 and the probability of a push is 0.10, for example, your probability of winning would be 0.545.

The formula is: w = (1 + EV -p)/2, where w = prob. of win, and p = prob. of push.
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
Thanks for this post from:
December 11th, 2019 at 10:32:16 PM permalink
Quote: Bucky

But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins.

use a Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer
like this one
formatting really ugly
the probability depends on the rules of the game you play
`Player's Hand: 8 10Dealer's Hand: 5Rules: H17, Dealer PeaksDeck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)******************************************************************************Results for Standingp-1	p0	p+1	p+1.5	EV(units)	SD(units)	DI(EV/SD)0.3404023985	0.1236611566	0.535936445	0	0.1955340465	0.915480901	0.213586156Results for Hittingp-1	p0	p+1	EV(units)	SD(units)	DI(EV/SD)0.7926638822	0.02648144609	0.1808546717	-0.6118092106	0.7740852949	-0.7903640782Results for Doublingp-2	p0	p+2	EV(units)	SD(units)	DI(EV/SD)0.7926638822	0.02648144609	0.1808546717	-1.223618421	1.54817059	-0.7903640782`
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019