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Bucky
Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
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December 11th, 2019 at 7:17:33 PM permalink
Hi, Just making sure I understand the Blackjack hand calculator. Let's assume The dealer card is a 5 showing and I have an 8 and 10. Calculator says:

Surrender -0.500000
STAND +0.195388
Hit -0.612793
Double -1.225586

So, my assumption is with a 100 dollar bet I should average a $19 win. 100 occurrences at 100 = 1900 But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins. To win 1900 in 100 hands I need what 60 wins and 40 losses to win 2000. 59 wins gets 1800.

This appears to be a 59.5 win %. Am I correct?
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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December 11th, 2019 at 8:33:41 PM permalink
Quote: Bucky

Hi, Just making sure I understand the Blackjack hand calculator. Let's assume The dealer card is a 5 showing and I have an 8 and 10. Calculator says:

Surrender -0.500000
STAND +0.195388
Hit -0.612793
Double -1.225586

So, my assumption is with a 100 dollar bet I should average a $19 win. 100 occurrences at 100 = 1900 But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins. To win 1900 in 100 hands I need what 60 wins and 40 losses to win 2000. 59 wins gets 1800.

This appears to be a 59.5 win %. Am I correct?



When you stand on 18 vs dealer's 5 up, the dealer could end up with a total of 18, too. To calculate your probability of winning, you would need to know the probability of a push as well as your EV.

You're right--if your EV = 0.19 and the probability of a push is 0, then your probability of winning would be 0.595.

But if your EV = 0.19 and the probability of a push is 0.10, for example, your probability of winning would be 0.545.

The formula is: w = (1 + EV -p)/2, where w = prob. of win, and p = prob. of push.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
blackjacklad
December 11th, 2019 at 10:32:16 PM permalink
Quote: Bucky

But, what what I really want to know is the % of the time that hand wins.

use a Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer
like this one
formatting really ugly
the probability depends on the rules of the game you play
Player's Hand: 8 10
Dealer's Hand: 5
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.3404023985 0.1236611566 0.535936445 0 0.1955340465 0.915480901 0.213586156

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7926638822 0.02648144609 0.1808546717 -0.6118092106 0.7740852949 -0.7903640782

Results for Doubling
p-2 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7926638822 0.02648144609 0.1808546717 -1.223618421 1.54817059 -0.7903640782
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Bucky
Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
  • Threads: 1
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December 12th, 2019 at 7:46:53 AM permalink
Thanks guys for your reply - I understand the Wizards EV calculation a little better. My motivation was that although I have the strategy memorized on when to hit-stand, etc. I was curious about what % the various moves improved my chances of winning that hand.

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