NewtoTown
NewtoTown
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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September 14th, 2019 at 5:41:00 PM permalink
How can I calculate what the odds of winning are if I do *not* surrender when basic strategy calls for it (like when I have a 16 against a dealer 9, 10 or A)?

Is surrender in my favor or is it a sucker bet?

I guess the other way to ask is, what is the formula to calculate what % of the time I will lose for any given surrender opportunity (according to basic strategy), if I do *not* accept surrender?
bobbartop
bobbartop
Joined: Mar 15, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfNewtoTown
September 14th, 2019 at 7:34:07 PM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown

How can I calculate what the odds of winning are if I do *not* surrender when basic strategy calls for it (like when I have a 16 against a dealer 9, 10 or A)?

Is surrender in my favor or is it a sucker bet?

I guess the other way to ask is, what is the formula to calculate what % of the time I will lose for any given surrender opportunity (according to basic strategy), if I do *not* accept surrender?




Surrender is not a sucker play. It is in your favor, when it is in your favor.

If you're counting and the deck is negative enough, you'd rather hit 16 v T than surrender.

Since you're new, you may not have seen Wizard's calculator on this site yet. It's worth looking at.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
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September 15th, 2019 at 4:18:46 AM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown

How can I calculate what the odds of winning are if I do *not* surrender when basic strategy calls for it (like when I have a 16 against a dealer 9, 10 or A)?

Is surrender in my favor or is it a sucker bet?

I guess the other way to ask is, what is the formula to calculate what % of the time I will lose for any given surrender opportunity (according to basic strategy), if I do *not* accept surrender?



NewtoTown,

Welcome to the Wizard of Vegas forum!

Here's a link to the WoO's BJ hand calculator:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/hand-calculator/

If you select a full 8-deck shoe and give the dealer a King and the player a 10 and a 6, then click the "Calculate" button, you'll see the Expected Value (EV) for each of your options in units of your original bet.

Surrender is -0.5 (that is, you lose half of your original bet), Stand is about -0.541, Hit is about -0.536, and Double is about -1.072. Since Surrender has the highest (least negative) EV, Surrender is the best play here.

If you choose not to Surrender, then the next-best option is to Hit, which on average will cost you 0.536 of your original bet. Thus, if you choose NOT to surrender, you'll cost yourself an additional 0.036 (or 3.6%) of your bet.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
September 15th, 2019 at 10:56:11 AM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown

How can I calculate what the odds of winning are if I do *not* surrender when basic strategy calls for it (like when I have a 16 against a dealer 9, 10 or A)?

If you do not know how to calculate it, most do not, use a program.
most are also NOT interested in only the winning probabilities. (your odds)
Quote: NewtoTown

I guess the other way to ask is, what is the formula to calculate what % of the time I will lose for any given surrender opportunity (according to basic strategy), if I do *not* accept surrender?

no easy formula as in a+b=c
computer programs do this effortlessly
some results I had from here: http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
their windows program (I do not know if it is still available)

the formatting is not what it should be
looking at about 21-22% chance of winning your 16 against a Dealer 9,T and A is lower as expected.
I used specific rules
************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 10 6
Dealer's Hand: 10
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7883042316 0 0.2116957684 0 -0.5766084632 0.8170206119 -0.7057453078

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7578147247 0.05518781701 0.1869974583 -0.5708172663 0.786752713 -0.7255358093

Results for Doubling
p-2 p-1 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.68014482 0.077669903 0.055187817 0.18699746 -1.0639646 1.5537755 -0.68476085

******************************************************************************

************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 10 6
Dealer's Hand: 9
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7712523296 0 0.2287476704 0 -0.5425046593 0.8400527928 -0.6457982926

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7223257 0.0598953509 0.2177789491 -0.5045467508 0.8279717539 -0.6093767673

Results for Doubling
p-2 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7223257 0.0598953509 0.2177789491 -1.009093502 1.655943508 -0.6093767673

******************************************************************************

************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 10 6
Dealer's Hand: 1
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.860793076 0 0.139206924 0 -0.721586152 0.6923246531 -1.042265574

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.8193867416 0.04266099805 0.1379522604 -0.6814344812 0.7021296531 -0.9705251418

Results for Doubling
p-2 p-1 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.51194338 0.30744337 0.042660998 0.13795226 -1.0554256 1.3390679 -0.78817932

******************************************************************************

************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 9 7
Dealer's Hand: 10
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7863925549 0 0.2136074451 0 -0.5727851098 0.8197055679 -0.6987693292

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7582230482 0.05503181611 0.1867451356 -0.5714779126 0.7863721634 -0.7267270374

Results for Doubling
p-2 p-1 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.68055315 0.077669903 0.055031816 0.18674514 -1.0652859 1.5530708 -0.68592231

******************************************************************************

************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 9 7
Dealer's Hand: 9
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7713968586 0 0.2286031414 0 -0.5427937172 0.8398660492 -0.6462860569

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7225395607 0.05991344831 0.217546991 -0.5049925698 0.8276889852 -0.6101235836

Results for Doubling
p-2 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.7225395607 0.05991344831 0.217546991 -1.00998514 1.65537797 -0.6101235836

******************************************************************************

************************Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer v1.60***********************
Player's Hand: 9 7
Dealer's Hand: 1
Rules: H17, Dealer Peaks
Deck Composition: Ace(24) Two(24) Three(24) Four(24) Five(24) Six(24) Seven(24) Eight(24) Nine(24) Ten(96)
******************************************************************************
Results for Standing
p-1 p0 p+1 p+1.5 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.8603505684 0 0.1396494316 0 -0.7207011368 0.6932458954 -1.0396039

Results for Hitting
p-1 p0 p+1 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.8198081966 0.04237002542 0.137821778 -0.6819864186 0.7018008973 -0.9717662391

Results for Doubling
p-2 p-1 p0 p+2 EV(units) SD(units) DI(EV/SD)
0.50912858 0.31067961 0.042370025 0.13782178 -1.0532932 1.3375554 -0.78747634

******************************************************************************


not many ask these type of questions
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 1468
September 15th, 2019 at 11:05:54 AM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown


Is surrender in my favor or is it a sucker bet?



It is most definitely not a sucker bet, which is why it is getting harder to find good tables that offer surrender.

There may be some deviations depending on the type of game, but the general rule is, if you have a hard 16 on a hand that you would normally hit, surrendering is the best move.

Having the option to surrender takes a dent of the house edge.

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