Novice Counter Questions: Strategic Approach?

I was previously a member of WOV but can't, for the life of me, find my Username. So here I am. Again.

I used to travel a lot for work so I would often visit casinos with a moderate spread, camp for days using Hi-Lo, tip generously, and walk away netting $15-$20 an hour in EV by the time I would get backed-off, or they would move the cut card, or perhaps it was time to leave the city. Seemed like the perfect approach considering I never intended to return to those casinos.




Now I am making a trip to LA monthly and seriously considering making Vegas a regular addition to my trip (I'm not barred from any properties or major casino networks in the city) and trying to figure out the best approach.
I love the challenge of counting (both mathematically, socially, and whatever other heat or distractions come with it) which I'm sure most part-timers can relate to. It's a refreshing break from my normal day to day and I thoroughly enjoy the rush. With that said I'd like to keep a moderately low ROR and I am in no rush to build a 5-star bankroll over night.

Anyone else make periodic trips to Vegas? I don't want to camp for 15 hour sessions and risk getting barred from CET or MGM or any other big networks. But I also can't backcount at most properties seeing as the low-limit tables cap you at $100 for mid-shoe entry and the high-limit often won't allow mid-shoe at all anymore. And anything more than a 1-8 spread is going to flag all kinds of attention. I think? I've never really counted with the fear of getting caught before. This should definitely be something I should consider, right? I'm not overthinking it?

Thank you to anyone who took the time to read this request, could actually make sense of it, and has any input for me. I have a dedicated $20k BR, I'm clean at every casino in Nevada, and have studied and executed hi-lo (red sevens) for hundreds of hours with i18 and fab4 in my arsenal. Should I be considering learning a new system? New deviations? Is there a healthy approach in Vegas that tends to keep you under the radar? Can I even profitably play in Vegas? I'd really rather not keep attacking the tables for 20 bucks an hour... Any thoughts at all would be so greatly appreciated.
Thanks!

A $20K bankroll you say? You want that to last all year and next year? I'd suggest $25 tables with $500 sessions and just try to double or nothing your session money without counting. They can see your eye movements, it's not really about how you bet; but how you bet is what brings the backoff police within the hour.

mmk. thanks, chump

"socially"
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????

Hi AspireAP, welcome back to the forums.

One thing I've repeated many times on these forums that definitely applies here: Vegas is all about quantity, not quality.

Vegas casinos are pretty quick to pick off counters. If you're planning trips here you'll absolutely want to keep your sessions short and bounce around with a lot of hit and run. I wouldn't recommend session win, loss, or bankroll goals... more like hands/time goals of about 1 shoe per shop, or around ~30 minutes. It's going to be a lot of fun but make for some long days to get enough hands in to build up the EV.

***For the most accurate results you really should SIM the average game you plan to play with your bet spread and bankroll, but as far as Kelly is concerned

((1 * %win) - %lose) / 1= Avg Bet

You should be betting around $200 as your average bet, though that's full kelly which I don't support (very high variance). Half kelly, which will get your RoR down a lot as you want as well would be an average bet around $100. A spread that generates decent EV and should fly under the "generic" $500 "limit of attention" in most vegas shops would be something like $50-$300, with bonus points for taking your bet to $25 at TC -1.

Spread:
TC <= -2 = $0 or leave
TC = -1 = $25
TC = 0 = $50
TC = +1 = $100
TC = +2 = $150
TC = +3 = $300

TC > +3 = $300

This will help appear to be a 1-6 spread if you start at $50, while reducing to $25 at TC -1. Should be "some kind" of cover WITHOUT cost. Next, your average bet using this spread will actually be around $109... half kelly as we wanted.

The counting system I'd recommend to you is the one you're going to make the least amount of mistakes with, so long as it's a "main stream" system and not something like A-5 (sorry Wiz). Past that if Hi/Low is one of your options I would ABSOLUTELY recommend that for a bunch of reasons, a couple easy off the top of my head being:

1) You'll have the most information available and other people to help with any questions since this is the most mainstream.
2) It's one of the simplest, proving to have fewer mistakes than most other more complex systems.
3) You're playing hit and run, so do not worry about using a weird/different/complex system to try to throw off surveillance, which "on average" they won't do anyways.

Next, I would absolutely encourage you to learn ALL indexes from TC -2 up to TC +6. There's actually not that many of them, it's easy flash card practice just like the I18, and for me it was a ton of fun to use these on occasion. Do note they're not jumping your EV a ton, but they will definitely increase your EV a small percent (maybe to help with your "generous" tipping).

On that note, lastly, I would discourage your "ample" tipping as over hands, hours, and time in general you'll eventually piss away a LOT of EV. I'm not saying "don't tip," as if you're ordering drinks I think you should... but maybe re-think ordering a lot of things at the table, or understand how much you're going to forfeit in tipping. If you want to take this seriously you're going to have to consider this EV from tipping, and if you still want to tip then you can't take this "quite seriously."

If you haven't already, even if you're a rather accomplished counter, I'd still recommend taking a read at the 3 articles I wrote on this very site. Something might catch your eye or your might pick up a thing or two. If nothing else, it never hurts to keep the facts sharp in your head =).

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Tx romes as always for thoughtful detailed reply. Very helpful something I will take under close consideration. I spent some time navigating through all of KJs threads and blogs (the ones that pertained to bj at least) and you were absolutely next on my list to sort of stalk
I respect your experience and longevity at that and your sacrifices to help aspiring aps
Tx!

Quote: Romes

You should be betting around $200 as your average bet, though that's full kelly which I don't support (very high variance). Half kelly, which will get your RoR down a lot as you want as well would be an average bet around $100.

Could you please explain the difference between so-called ‘half Kelly’ and a normal Kelly with half the bankroll?
And also the rationale behind it, in terms of objectives, as compared to true Kelly?

Kelly Criterion is suggested bet-sizing intended to maximize profits. There is also risk associated with the high return. Betting half the calculated Kelly wager will reduce your profitability but will also drastically reduce your RoR - the likelihood of going bust. Does that make sense?

WoV has great article on Kelly Criterion especially if you can wrap your head around the math. Can be found here:
/gambling/kelly-criterion/

Also CV is a great application (even the free trial) for calculating appropriate bet sizing, assessing your risk of ruin, and seeing how variances to true Kelly impact both your profits and your risk.
CV can be downloaded for free for Windows at
m

Hope this answers your question.

Quote: AspireAP

<…> Hope this answers your question.

🥴 Thank you for your effort, but I already know much more than that. (I wrote the French Wikipedia page about Kelly criterion.)

No, Kelly criterion is not supposed to maximize profits.
Even if it were, what would then be the reason to « reduce your profitability »?
To maximize (expected) profit, one should bet one’s whole bankroll. Kelly is about optimizing the rate of growth of said bankroll. Time is of the essence.
Consequently, Kelly already takes into account the question of optimalizing risk of ruin.

(Actually, RoR is zéro since you never bet the whole remaining bankroll. So halving bets does not reduce something that was already zero.)

By changing it, you deviate from that objective. My question is, what is then your objective, if not maximizing growth and minimizing risk of ruin? Why refer to Kelly at all?

It is a bit like you had calculated the optimal speed to optimize travel time vs. gas consumption, and then you decide to drive at half that speed because you want to consume less. Well — then you are not optimizing anything;, you just decide arbitrarily.

Quote: AspireAP

Kelly Criterion is suggested bet-sizing intended to maximize profits. There is also risk associated with the high return. Betting half the calculated Kelly wager will reduce your profitability but will also drastically reduce your RoR - the likelihood of going bust. Does that make sense?

WoV has great article on Kelly Criterion especially if you can wrap your head around the math. Can be found here:
/gambling/kelly-criterion/

Also CV is a great application (even the free trial) for calculating appropriate bet sizing, assessing your risk of ruin, and seeing how variances to true Kelly impact both your profits and your risk.
CV can be downloaded for free for Windows at
m

Hope this answers your question.

Better to just ignore kubikulann as he'll just drive you insane due to "technicalities" or whatever gets him off.



I didn't read Romes post TBH but it's probably mostly all good. As far as Vegas goes, I think it ultimately depends on how long your trip is going to be and how much you care (if at all) of getting backed off / trespassed / put into databases and whatnot. There are many "good" double deck games, but they can also be a bit sweaty. Do you want to go play 30-60 minute sessions at a bunch of different casinos, hopping around all day? Or would you rather try to camp out a few places for longer sessions but not all day?

If I were you, I'd just hit the DD games and spread something like 25-150 or 25-200 for 30-60 minute sessions. Obviously modify the spread as you see fit for risk and all that stuff. You can also obviously go the shoe route like Romes is saying (I think?)....but personally, if I'm going to play a short session, I'd rather make more EV to make it more worthwhile. Remember there's quite a bit of time between ending a session at one casino and starting it at the next one -- even just Gold Coast & Palms, probably the two closest to each other casinos, the turnaround is going to be like 15 minutes (if not longer) from your last hand at one to your first hand at the next.

Lol @ the Kubikulann comment. Thought I would comment further but thought it best to leave it as is.

Helpful. Thanks, RS. Good to get your perspective on a healthy spread for DD and Rome’s input on a spread for a shoe game. I kinda of figured it was best to go for the throat and then move on to the next one. And I totally don’t mind walking the entire length of the strip everyday. Probably good for me if I’m gonna sit and play and eat at buffets all day anyway.

The intent was to go to Vegas for a 4-day weekend once a month. Do you think there are options I can explore where I can sit and camp as well? Or are 30 minute options pretty much the limit at most or all shops?

Quote: RS

Better to just ignore kubikulann as he'll just drive you insane due to "technicalities" or whatever gets him off.

Quote: AspireAP

Lol @ the Kubikulann comment. Thought I would comment further but thought it best to leave it as is.

Throwing pearls to pigs.
Reason cannot persuade believers that they are wrong. Nothing new.

I suppose if you think everyone in this forum is wrong your time may be better spent elsewhere.
Wouldn't want to waste anymore pearls, now would we?

Quote: AspireAP

Lol @ the Kubikulann comment. Thought I would comment further but thought it best to leave it as is.

Helpful. Thanks, RS. Good to get your perspective on a healthy spread for DD and Rome’s input on a spread for a shoe game. I kinda of figured it was best to go for the throat and then move on to the next one. And I totally don’t mind walking the entire length of the strip everyday. Probably good for me if I’m gonna sit and play and eat at buffets all day anyway.

The intent was to go to Vegas for a 4-day weekend once a month. Do you think there are options I can explore where I can sit and camp as well? Or are 30 minute options pretty much the limit at most or all shops?

I'm sure others can chime in with better inside regarding the strip....but when I played, I'd just back-count on the strip and play DD off-strip. I'm not sure what kind of mid-shoe-entry limits they have now, but I know they had $500 max at least at Flamingo & Planet Hollywood, not sure about others. I don't know how good the DD games are on the strip (I think there are or at least have been a few decent ones), but I generally wouldn't want to play DD on the strip, especially because if ya get backed off / 86'd from one -- well, it's either Caesars property or MGM, which are pretty big chains. Also, I'm not sure how quick the surveillance would be, if they would even do this, but send other surveillance rooms info on you if they were reviewing you. At least with back-counting, there isn't much to review and ideally you'll be in and out without being noticed.


Something kinda unrelated but still related -- if you plan on doing a trip every month, then look into starting a chip inventory, especially if you're gonna do any back-counting and/or hopping around a lot. Just wandering over to the cage to cash out takes quite a bit of time, as well as buying in (cash) when you start playing, and not to mention the other good reasons for keeping an inventory -- you'll get noticed less and they'll have fewer good opportunities to get a good picture of you, since the good / high quality cameras are at the cage. But a chip inventory might not be the best thing for you, especially since chips aren't liquid (if you need that cash when you're not at the casino) and not to mention, it means that by the time you get to your 10'th or whatever casino for the trip, you might be running fairly low on cash on hand, depending on how you've done earlier.


Don't know of any places where you can camp out...and I don't think anyone would tell you if they did know.

Quote: AspireAP

I suppose if you think everyone in this forum is wrong your time may be better spent elsewhere.
Wouldn't want to waste anymore pearls, now would we?

He’s not wrong. It’s fear or risk aversion, not logic, that drive people to be fractional Kelly.

Quote: unJon

He’s not wrong. It’s fear or risk aversion, not logic, that drive people to be fractional Kelly.

He is wrong because he knows nothing about AP. His knowledge comes from books and not actual knowledge of the game. There are other things to consider and not solely bankroll growth in a vacuum. There are expenses for one. Yeah, just because "the math" says you have a 0% ROR with full kelly, you really don't, because you can't bet micro-amounts. There is always going to be some amount of errors in your game as you're not going to play perfectly, or even stuff like tipping.

Also, everyone is in a different situation and has different goals. Someone's goal might not be to maximize bankroll growth. A single guy who's 21, no family, has a $80k+/yr job with a $20k BR -- if he goes bust on his BR, no big deal, he may as well take a shot (and if he loses it, rebuild from his job). Someone who has a family to take care of and all that stuff, he's going to have a different way to approach AP and may very well likely decide what's best for him is to play at some fractional kelly amount. IIRC, you only lose about 25% of expected bankroll growth betting half kelly instead of full kelly. I don't know all the math behind that, but I'm sure kubilikann can write up a few essays explaining why that is the case or why I'm wrong.


Also, risk aversion and logic are not mutually exclusive. It's not like there's an "exact" amount of risk everyone should be willing to take, because again, everyone is in a different situation.

Quote: RS

He is wrong because he knows nothing about AP. His knowledge comes from books and not actual knowledge of the game. There are other things to consider and not solely bankroll growth in a vacuum. <…>

Also, everyone is in a different situation and has different goals.<…>

Also, risk aversion and logic are not mutually exclusive. It's not like there's an "exact" amount of risk everyone should be willing to take, because again, everyone is in a different situation.

You begin by saying I’m wrong, then you expose exactly what I say.

I say that the Kelly criterion is only for a very specific goal in a very specific -and theoretical- environment. Quote: ‘solely bankroll growth in a vacuum’. I said several times that Kelly is for risk-neutral agents, and most people are risk-averse. As, quote, ‘everyone is a different situation’ , I say there is no logical reason to use the Kelly criterion in real life. AP or not.

I also say buttheads don’t read what I write, but revel in empty criticism just because they hate intelligence.

Finally, I remember a guy who had worked some months in Burkina Faso. Not a reader of books... He knew zilch about the political or historical situation, he just knew a few things about how the workers he knew lived. When I started to develop the nature of political interactions etc., which I knew because I READ BOOKS AND NEWSPAPERS, he threw a fit calling me Mr. Professor and saying I knew nothing because I did not live there.
Quite a butthole, isn’t it?

Quote: AspireAP

I suppose if you think everyone in this forum is wrong your time may be better spent elsewhere.
Wouldn't want to waste anymore pearls, now would we?

Never said everyone is wrong. Just that YOU are.

Look at the delusional newcomer who wants to dictate who can stay in the forum! Learn humility, young man.

Quote: kubikulann

Learn humility, young man.

Hahaaahahaa