Comment on Tonight's GWAE - Colin

As usual, I thoroughly enjoyed the podcast tonight with Colin. But this is the second week in a row their guest mentioned the “cost of cover” discussed in Ian Anderson’s ‘Burning The Tables’ as being too formidable. Of course, I have heard this from others too, it’s just coincidence that almost verbatim the show’s guest said the same thing two weeks in a row. I may be wrong, but I think even Munchkin agreed with them. And he's at the top of the intelligent BJ players' heap. He's a super star.

I personally think “Burning” is one of the best books on BJ ever written. I would not consider myself any better at general reading comprehension than the next guy of average intelligence. But I read the book, thoroughly, and I don’t see the “point” at all. His cover is NOT costly. That’s the whole point of the book. What am I missing? Nothing, that’s what. I’m right, and they’re wrong. Do I play blackjack for a living? Nooooooo. Hardly. But I’m not stupid either. And I can read English.

Agree to disagree.

Idk what any of them people said FWIW. But something being too costly is relative and subjective. I might be willing to give up 10% of my EV if it means I’ll last longer, while someone else doesn’t give a **** how long they last. After all, there are different strategies on just how to play. Are you going to (potentially) burn down a store for an extra $20/hr or are you going to try to milk it as long as possible?

When was that book written? I thought it was written in like the 80’s or some time long ago. If so, it’s possible both are right, but for their time. I could see how back then if you did some cover plays, the pit boss and/or surveillance would be like “he bet big on first hand of shoe, nope not a counter” then let him play with impunity for the next 500 hours. Maybe a slight exaggeration but ya know what I mean.

Just because someone is popular/famous and/or has made a lot of money doesn’t mean they’re smart nor that the advice they’re giving is right for you. Mostly the latter. And I’m not saying any of them are dumb by any means. Their advice could be good or could be bad for you specifically.

For example, and I don’t know how true this story is or when/where I read it, but whatever. Read about a guy who was playing a game for about $1k/hr EV. His form of cover was by tipping $500/hr, so his net EV was +$500. Is tipping 50% of your EV good advice? No, generally it’d be terrible. But if you have the bankroll to support it, have nowhere else to play, and whatever other kind of factors play into it....then yeah, go for it.

Quote: RS

Idk what any of them people said FWIW. But something being too costly is relative and subjective. I might be willing to give up 10% of my EV if it means I’ll last longer, while someone else doesn’t give a **** how long they last. After all, there are different strategies on just how to play. Are you going to (potentially) burn down a store for an extra $20/hr or are you going to try to milk it as long as possible?

When was that book written? I thought it was written in like the 80’s or some time long ago. If so, it’s possible both are right, but for their time. I could see how back then if you did some cover plays, the pit boss and/or surveillance would be like “he bet big on first hand of shoe, nope not a counter” then let him play with impunity for the next 500 hours. Maybe a slight exaggeration but ya know what I mean.

Just because someone is popular/famous and/or has made a lot of money doesn’t mean they’re smart nor that the advice they’re giving is right for you. Mostly the latter. And I’m not saying any of them are dumb by any means. Their advice could be good or could be bad for you specifically.

For example, and I don’t know how true this story is or when/where I read it, but whatever. Read about a guy who was playing a game for about $1k/hr EV. His form of cover was by tipping $500/hr, so his net EV was +$500. Is tipping 50% of your EV good advice? No, generally it’d be terrible. But if you have the bankroll to support it, have nowhere else to play, and whatever other kind of factors play into it....then yeah, go for it.

You're right about it being a long time ago. "Burning" was out in '99, his other book, "Turning", was maybe 20 years earlier. I don't even know where Anderson stands on this now, heck I don't even know if he's alive. I hope so. I assumed most had read the book, it's the second book that writes about his "Ultimate Gambit". Did you read his first book, Turning the Tables? Anyway, I should not have said anything about Munchkin, I don't know what his thoughts are on it, but I would not disagree with him on anything. He's really smart. Munchkin's great. Even though I liked all three of the show's co-hosts, (including our leader, Wizard), I think the show is perfect with Munchkin. But Anderson didn't get backed off. That was his thing. Longevity. Although I don't know how it works in today's environment, especially since I'm not a player, I'm sure Munchkin would have a correct opinion, I would trust him with any question. He's at the top of the game, very smart. What I disagreed with was what the last two guests had to say about about Anderson's approach in "Burning". And I've heard others say the same thing. I think they both mentioned it by name, I know Colin did yesterday, he mentioned it exactly. And he said the "cover was too costly". That's not so. If it's not effective or practical today, that's a difference subject. I'm just saying the "cover" did not cost too much, hardly anything. You'd have to read it, I can't explain it in a few words. Great book, as I mentioned earlier. You may have seen me post about it a couple months ago and what he said about GARLIC. That was very interesting, and it's what prompted me to start eating a lot of garlic. I still do.

I always like the show. Yesterday was a good one, imo. You might want to add that book to your letter to Santa this year. Even APs who aren't into BJ would like it, I'm sure of that.

I’ve read a bunch of different AP books. I just don’t remember all the specifics of each book and stuff. I probably read his, just don’t recall exactly. I’m familiar with the type of cover (I think) you’re talking about. Basically spreading inversely but really really big, always taking insurance & BJ even money, never hitting 16vT, among a few other matchups. Essentially using something like a counter’s basic strategy where you just always (or almost always) do the same thing.


There are always going to be people that want to play 10000% perfectly always. I think that’s a little too much. IDGAF about learning the 500 exceptions on 9/6 DDB so I can get an extra 0.0031% return. Playing 1 extra hand per hour would be like 10x better return than learning all that crap.

Quote: RS

I’ve read a bunch of different AP books. I just don’t remember all the specifics of each book and stuff. I probably read his, just don’t recall exactly. I’m familiar with the type of cover (I think) you’re talking about. Basically spreading inversely but really really big, always taking insurance & BJ even money, never hitting 16vT, among a few other matchups. Essentially using something like a counter’s basic strategy where you just always (or almost always) do the same thing.


There are always going to be people that want to play 10000% perfectly always. I think that’s a little too much. IDGAF about learning the 500 exceptions on 9/6 DDB so I can get an extra 0.0031% return. Playing 1 extra hand per hour would be like 10x better return than learning all that crap.

Yeah, you got it, buddy, that's pretty much it. And when those plays are minimally wrong, he's got a smaller bet out. When he's betting big, the plays are correct. And with his extrovert personality, he gets away with all kinds of sh*t. It's also a very entertaining read, at least I thought so.

Good point about DDB. I enjoy learning fine point exceptions, but I know you're right.

Don't forget, eat your garlic. :-)

I've got the book right here (Burning the Tables in Las Vegas).

The Ultimate Gambit includes:
*Always insure a blackjack
*Always stand on 16v10
*Always double on 11
*Always double 9v2
*Always double on 10
*Always stand on 12v3
*Always stand on A7 vs 9,10,A

Total cost - $13.25/hour on a $100 unit. Or 0.133% in absolute terms. I think this means if your edge is 1%, it's now 0.867%.

So basically, if I'm reading that right, about 13% of your base unit per hour. Not sure how that figure into percentage off your EV. Back in my more active playing days, I remember simming that I was making about 1.5 units per hour at the crappy games available these days (actually that was mostly S17 strip games IIRC). So let's say your EV is 1.5 units/hour, so your EV on a $100 unit would be $150, and you're giving up $13.25 of that, or about 8%.

That's not nothing tbh. And the style that many counters employ these days is a very aggressive, burn it down and when you get thrown out, you don't come back for a while. You have to travel a lot, and be ok with your face getting flyered everywhere.

If your play is longevity (as Anderson's is/was), then the UG makes more sense. But these days, they will probably run your play through a computer eventually, and realize that despite your slight mistakes, you are betting with the count and throw you out anyway. I think that's the big change from 1999 to today. So you're giving away part of your edge for minimal benefit is probably how these 2 guests both look at it.

Bob, I love garlic.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Bob, I love garlic.

I love garlic, but I ate at a teppanyaki hibachi restaurant last night and there was so much garlic in the food that I smell like garlic today while sitting at my desk. Yes, I took a shower this morning.

Quote: AcesAndEights

I've got the book right here (Burning the Tables in Las Vegas).

The Ultimate Gambit includes:
*Always insure a blackjack
*Always stand on 16v10
*Always double on 11
*Always double 9v2
*Always double on 10
*Always stand on 12v3
*Always stand on A7 vs 9,10,A

Total cost - $13.25/hour on a $100 unit. Or 0.133% in absolute terms. I think this means if your edge is 1%, it's now 0.867%.

So basically, if I'm reading that right, about 13% of your base unit per hour. Not sure how that figure into percentage off your EV. Back in my more active playing days, I remember simming that I was making about 1.5 units per hour at the crappy games available these days (actually that was mostly S17 strip games IIRC). So let's say your EV is 1.5 units/hour, so your EV on a $100 unit would be $150, and you're giving up $13.25 of that, or about 8%.

That's not nothing tbh. And the style that many counters employ these days is a very aggressive, burn it down and when you get thrown out, you don't come back for a while. You have to travel a lot, and be ok with your face getting flyered everywhere.

If your play is longevity (as Anderson's is/was), then the UG makes more sense. But these days, they will probably run your play through a computer eventually, and realize that despite your slight mistakes, you are betting with the count and throw you out anyway. I think that's the big change from 1999 to today. So you're giving away part of your edge for minimal benefit is probably how these 2 guests both look at it.

Bob, I love garlic.

Thank you, AcesandEights, this is really a good post you made. Just to mention again, when he's spreading real big, those plays are correct. Sadly, you're probably right about them running it through more scrutiny and kicking you out anyway. Thanks again, excellent post.

Nowadays, you could probably play absolutely terribly but as long as you spread big at mostly the right times, still get thrown out. Never double 9 or A6-A8, always hit 12, always stand 16, and do everything else correctly — throw in a massive spread and I think there’s a good chance you’ll get kicked out.

Quote: RS

Nowadays, you could probably play absolutely terribly but as long as you spread big at mostly the right times, still get thrown out. Never double 9 or A6-A8, always hit 12, always stand 16, and do everything else correctly — throw in a massive spread and I think there’s a good chance you’ll get kicked out.

El Cortez will toss you for spreading $5-$20.

FWIW I agreed with almost everything Collin discussed. If you're going to take the game of blackjack seriously now days, you're just spinning your wheels and burning EV not to slam them in their faces. No game of blackjack lasts forever, and that cost of cover adds up and is giving players less and less time anyways with countdowns, and rfid chips tracking betting. Just slam them, get the EV, and be genuinely surprised at how many places will let you slam for hours or days on end. THAT's the real EV you're usually MISSING by playing smaller and using cover. Big swings in EV when you can spread 1-20 for days on end.

Quote: Romes

FWIW I agreed with almost everything Collin discussed. If you're going to take the game of blackjack seriously now days, you're just spinning your wheels and burning EV not to slam them in their faces. No game of blackjack lasts forever, and that cost of cover adds up and is giving players less and less time anyways with countdowns, and rfid chips tracking betting. Just slam them, get the EV, and be genuinely surprised at how many places will let you slam for hours or days on end. THAT's the real EV you're usually MISSING by playing smaller and using cover. Big swings in EV when you can spread 1-20 for days on end.

I believe you, I know you're a player. And I'm not a player. Others in this thread agree with you. Given all that, I have to believe you. You're the man. But the way we discussed the "cost of cover", (even if it doesn't help in modern days), the "cost" didn't cost. I assume you read the book we're talking about. Right?

The cover costing is important, but nearly as important as the main point... If anyone listens to Small Cap's interviews as well (on GWAE and on BJApp I believe) he talks about being shocked that every 2 out of 10 places he goes just lets him spread $100 to 3x$500 openly for DAYS on end. That's the big message that I took out of it and that I also wanted to tag along and promote. Counters put 1 hour sessions together hustling from place to place and think of the savings on time/energy/stress, not to mention the EV, of just being able to BLAST $100 - 3x$500 openly for DAYS on end at a new casino each and every week. The EV goes through the roof for half the time/energy/stress of playing hit and run.

And yes I have bought it, but admittedly no I'm not through it.