Chicago2016
Chicago2016
Joined: Feb 28, 2019
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February 28th, 2019 at 3:59:53 PM permalink
Apologies in advance if this has already been vetted - I am new to the site yet have been playing blackjack for about 30 years now both on physical tables and online.

Many online websites offer significant bonuses on deposits - upwards of 100% - with the standard rollover requirements of 20X - 30X on both the initial deposit and the bonus.

So, a 20X rollover (RO) on a $2,000 deposit with a 100% match gives you $4000 stake = $80,000 required RO; 30X on the same = $120,000, etc. You get it.

Moving onward...let's say you wager $50 per hand and have the $80K rollover requirement. You play by the book and don't do anything stupid and assume the game isn't rigged. This would mean that you would roughly have to play 1,550 hands if you factor in DDs and splits...

Yet to the point here - assuming all of the regular win/loss/push odds are in play, what is the needed casino match and corresponding rollover requirement that would realistically lead to a net WIN north of the initial deposit? I think the amount of the deposit is irrelevant if the wager size is adjusted according.y

I seem to have success with the 100% match as long as the rollover is 20X and possibly 25X. Once I approach the 30X requirement, it gets tough.

Thoughts?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 28th, 2019 at 4:34:20 PM permalink
When betting $50 per hand, the EV*** of the above bonus is about: +$1,691 (for 80k rollover) and +$1,555 (120k rollover)

***: This is true for a "cashable bonus"^^^ (so it may or may not be true for the bonus you are talking about)

^^^: "Cashable bonuses are the most common and most simple variety of casino bonuses. After completing a wagering requirement, you are able to withdraw the bonus" (according to the link below)

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/cashable.htm

Note: Most online casinos, that i have played at, apply a factor of 4+ times the rollover requirement when you play blackjack, see example below:

example: if the rollover for the bonus is 80k, then I wouldn't be surprised if the rollover when playing blackjack is at least 320k

Note 2: if this is a cashable bonus and you bet $50 per bet, then the max rollover for the game to still be +EV^*^ for you is about: 200 x (bonus + deposit) or $800,000 max rollover for the $2000 deposit + $2000 bonus.

^*^: based on a game of Blackjack with a house edge of 0.46%

The link below was used for all calculations (in my opinion, it is only applicable for cashable type bonuses)

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

Below are examples of some other types of bonuses (see links below) and possible ways to play them:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/sticky.htm

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/clearplay.htm
Chicago2016
Chicago2016
Joined: Feb 28, 2019
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February 28th, 2019 at 4:49:02 PM permalink
Thanks for the reply. The site that I use that gives these allows for the entire amount to be cashed out.

For example, my buddy and I recently split a $2000 deposit with a 100% match with a 20X rollover ($80,000).

Once we hit the $80K mark, we quit. Ending balance was $2,900 so we netted $900. On occasion, they will toss in 50% 'free money' that is used as part of the wagering on each hand yet not part of the rollover requirement. This makes losing pretty difficult provided we don't get irate and start firing $200 per hand.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 28th, 2019 at 5:00:29 PM permalink
Quote: Chicago2016

Thanks for the reply. The site that I use that gives these allows for the entire amount to be cashed out.

For example, my buddy and I recently split a $2000 deposit with a 100% match with a 20X rollover ($80,000).

Once we hit the $80K mark, we quit. Ending balance was $2,900 so we netted $900. ...


If this is true, then this is most likely a cashable bonus, so the figures in my original reply are likely to be correct***

***: based on a house edge of 0.46%

note: if you give me the house edge for the game you are playing, then I can give you a better estimated EV figure for the bonus you are playing.

Also, I think the casino will eventually stop^^^ giving you the bonus, so if and when that happens, can you PM the name of the casino(s) to me? (if they are still offering this bonus to new players)

^^^: That is a very good blackjack bonus, so I doubt they would let any one person use it "forever".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 28, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 28th, 2019 at 5:12:57 PM permalink
Update:

For the deposit and bonus mentioned in the OP, I would drop the bet-size to about $20 to $25 per initial bet because, I think*** you can still complete the rollover within a reasonable period at those bet sizes (it should take 12 hours or less for $120,000 rollover @ $20 per initial bet).

***: based on an average hourly rate of 500^^^ hands per hour.

^^^: for any skeptics out there, 400 to 800+ hands per hour is doable for "online blackjack RNG type games" (in other words it is easily doable for any "non-live blackjack game").
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 28, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 809
February 28th, 2019 at 6:17:15 PM permalink
Update 2: (important)

I forgot to mention a strategy on how to minimize the chance of being labelled a "bonus abuser" or "Advantage Player".

Note: No matter how "loose" the bonus terms are, online casinos^^^ (and casinos in general) do not like it when they have been taken advantage of.

^^^: Most online casinos can confiscate your winnings or ban you from getting future bonuses if they just SUSPECT that you are a bonus abuser ( even if they can't prove it).

One strategy to minimize the chance of being labelled a bonus abuser would be to:

1. Play through the game as mentioned in my previous posts
2. When you have reached the required turnover don't withdraw, instead continue playing*** for an extra half an hour+ (up to about 25% x the "bonus turnover requirement").
3. After you have played past the "minimum turnover requirement" in step 2, you can then make a withdrawal.

***: normally I would reduce my bet size after completing a bonus, but because this particular bonus is so good, I would continue to play at $20 per bet on the same or similar blackjack games.

Note: This strategy will reduce the theoretical EV per bonus, but it will also reduce the chance of the casino labeling you a "bonus abuser".

This is just one strategy to reduce the risk of being labelled a bonus abuser, but no matter what you do there is always a chance of the bonus being removed or your "winnings" being confiscated.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 28, 2019

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