Blackjack Trip Bankroll

Hey guys, I have an upcoming blackjack trip and wanted to get some feedback on my bankroll system. I am a card counter, have been going on trips here and there over the past few years and I am thinking of doing something a little different with my bankroll this year. I always take $2,500 for blackjack on my trips and strictly play double-deck H17, DAS, 3:2 payout using Hi-Lo count with Ill 18 deviations. I always use a 1-5 spread, $25-$125 (TC+1-+5), and if I run out of money I just hang it up for the trip. Ive had trips where I have lost it all, trips where I have doubled my bankroll, and everything in between. This play generates an overall EV of around $30 an hour (or roughly $4 per shoe) and I usually try to play through at least 100 shoes on a trip, which isnt bad. But this year I was thinking of doing something a little different, I was thinking of adjusting my betting unit based off the $2,500. If my bankroll dips below $2,000, I will start betting $10-$50, but go back to betting $25-$125 if my bankroll increases back above $2,000. If my bankroll dips below $1,000 I will start betting $5-$25 until it increases back up over $1,000. Also, if my bankroll is doubled ($5,000) I will start betting $50-$250. If it is doubled again and reaches $10,000 I will start betting $100-$500. So to break it down:

Below $1,000 = $5 - $25 spread
Over $1,000 = $10 - $50 spread
Over $2,000 = $25 - $125 spread
Over $5,000 = $50 - $250 spread
Over $10,000 = $100 - $500 spread

Please let me know what you guys think about this. I am not really sure what the expected outcome is, I just thought it might be a cool idea as I am somewhat bored with the system I have been using and I thought this up LOL. Thanks friends!

You are so successful, it's become boring? I hate it when that happens.

LOL It really hasnt been extremely successful, but I have shown a small profit over the years. Just thinking about doing something different. Blackjack is just something I do for fun, not exactly for income. I just like card counting.

You are doing a rudimentary version of the Kelly criterion, but I don't remember enough of the details to know what your risk of ruin would be with those numbers (or even with your old rules). There are calculators out there...I would use google for "blackjack risk of ruin." Or maybe you need the qfit software to calculate these, not sure.

I will note that jumping from 25-125 to 50-250 you will likely get more heat than before. Depending on where you're playing, I would expect even $25-$125 at DD to receive *some* heat. But since you've been doing that for a long time, I'm assuming you are in tune with whatever heat that betting level warrants. But at double that, it will likely be more.

I guess it depends on what your goals are and what your overall bankroll for blackjack is. If you go on a run and lose $10k, would you still take another trip and play another $2500? What about if you lose $15k? Ask yourself this question and see what your "cutoff" is, and that's your real bankroll... The amount of money total you're willing to put towards your card counting adventures.

I'd assume just playing double deck you've had some back-offs then? Is this in Vegas? If not, no need to mention the region unless you want to.

Resizing will keep you playing all trip, but will also fluctuate your EV. Spreading $5-$25 won't really make you any kind of money, especially if you happen to have a mistake or two per hour... and being HONEST with ourselves anyone that's not a pro (and even a lot of pros) will in fact make a couple mistakes per hour. If your goal is just to count the whole trip and play as that's what you find fun then resizing is a very good idea. If you want to make $X per hour then you'd be better off bringing a larger trip bankroll so you could use your regular spread the whole trip no matter what.

Thanks for the response guys! I typically take $2,500 on each trip regardless of what happens, there have been 2 occasions that I have lost it and quit playing for the trip, but thankfully made it back the next trip. Honestly I have never been backed off spreading $25 - $125 on a double deck game, in Vegas and a few other places but I have never spread $50 - $250 yet. The only time I have ever been backed off was spreading $10 - $100 in Atlantic City on an 8 deck, but they just told me I wasnt allowed to bet more than $50. I guess my goal going forward is 2-fold: Minimize the risk of losing the entire $2,500:: And have the possibility of playing higher stakes in the future without bringing a bigger bankroll (like $100 - $500) or wildly increasing my ROR. Just wondering how constant resizing like what I mentioned above would effect the game and what the expected outcome would be. I know of course the expected value is cut in half every time the bankroll drops and I resize my bets, but also the expected value be doubled as the bankroll increases.

~$1250 Buy-in session, (30 Big Bets):
Below $500 = $5 - $25 spread
Over $500 = $10 - $50 spread
Over $750 = $15 - $75 spread
Over $1200 = $20 - $100 spread
Over $1700 = $30 - $150 spread
Over $2500 = $40 - $200 spread
Over $3500 = $50 - $250 spread
Over $5000 = $100 - $500 spread
Over $7500 = $150 - $750 spread
Over $12,000 = $200 - $1000 spread
Over $17,000 = $300 - $1500 spread
Over $25,000 = $400 - $2000 spread
Over $35,000 = $500 - $2500 spread
Over $50,000 = $1000 - $5000 spread
Over $75,000 = $1500 - $7500 spread
Over $120,000 = $2000 - $10,000 spread

That looks awesome ChumpChange! I will seriously consider running this betting / bankroll management system. I could be wrong but it seems to me that this would both maximize your profits on winning streaks and minimize the risk of losing the bankroll. Great work!

I played my home Blackjack game with Hoyle Casino. I was already at $3.3 million. I fell to $3.0 million, then got to $3.5 million and raised my spread to $50K - $250K. Early on I won on a positive shoe and got near $5 million. Then I hadn't seen a positive shoe that bumped a +2 TC in quite awhile, so I maintained a base bet. Dealer started busting like crazy on a negative shoe and I raised my bets to $100K at $5 million. Luck continued with +1 to negative shoes and I got to $7.5 million, then raised my bets to $150K. Then I had a positive shoe and got to $8.6 million, but then I started betting 5X my base bet on a TC of +5 and lost several hands. I reduced my spread when I fell through $7.5 million, and continued to fall down to $5.4 million. I made a recovery back to $6.0 million and quit.

The computer would tell me what my true count was, I wasn't counting. But I think not doing a spread or maybe a 1-2 spread would work better for how infrequently positive shoes came around. I'd have to recalculate the betting chart above for a 1-2 spread. I can press a bet on a win easier than I can come out for 1 or 2 hands to make an even higher bet that may not pay off despite the good count. I was playing on a 6 deck shoe with 3 other virtual players.

Update: I lost it all back down to $1 million in $50K Blackjack. Game wants to set me back like WinCraps does.

You should never lose your entire trip roll because after a certain point you shouldn't place another bet because you won't be able to cover all splits and doubles (probably around 4 or 5 bets to really minimize the probability of running out of money). Anyway 30 max bets is a good rule of thumb. Also your spread should be determined by your bankroll not your triproll.

Yeah to clarify, I have never really lost my entire trip roll. Once I got knocked down to a few hundred bucks I pretty much just called it quits. I have always just replenished my trip rolls, otherwise betting that much on just $2,500 is vastly over-betting. This time around I am going to resize as I win or lose and see how that works out!

it all depends on what you want to get in the end and what your goals

I've never lost my entire bankroll because sometimes you can tell that it's just not meant to be and you don''t have enough funds to ride a favorable shoe. It's better to just leave and come back later and then just put the remnants of your old bankroll onto the new one.

Yep I agree. I wish I knew how to set up a sim on a re-sizing bankroll. For example, if I am starting out with $2,500 as my TOTAL bankroll and I am going to resize as I win or lose, what would the eventual outcome be? Lets say for example I generate about $5 EV per shoe (its not quite that but its close), it should take me approximately 500 shoes played through to double that bankroll (theoretically of course). So if I were to resize my bets up to $50 - $250 once my bankroll is doubled (generating double the EV) and then again up to $100 - $500 once my bankroll reaches over $10,000, what would be the expected outcome after about 10,000 shoes played through or 25,000 shoes played through. Should we expect the bankroll to be doubled after approximately every 500 shoes in the long run? Any math guys in here?

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