Taroxus
Taroxus
Joined: Jan 24, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
January 24th, 2019 at 5:39:36 PM permalink
Hi guys,

I was thinking about advantage blackjack play on online live dealer games.

So the rules are:

- 8 decks, deck penetration 50%
- stand soft 17
- no double after split, split only 2 hands, can't hit split AA
- double on any two cards
- no surrender
- blackjack 3:2
- blackjack checked when A, otherwise forfeit all additional bets

That's pretty bad, at 0.62% house edge.

My question is, what if one can see the tables, and the player does not need to bet. We only bet when the shoe is rich. Is this feasible? What ROI could one expect, on average, per bet made. How often would a profitable opportunity come up?

Would there be a big difference between playing basic strategy with high/low count OR using software to determine perfect play for every hand?

Would an online casino catch on to this? If so, could we disguise ourselves by making -EV bets on other games/ playing poker?

In short, my idea would be to have software developed that allows to track a high/low count and give basic strategy input, watch 6 tables, and make bets accordingly. After that, you could develop better software to increase the EV of every bet made.

I'm new to advantage blackjack, and perhaps this isn't doable, for reasons that I don't understand yet. But to me, it looks easy. So perhaps I'm missing something.
Taroxus
Taroxus
Joined: Jan 24, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
January 24th, 2019 at 6:02:02 PM permalink
Also, I'm very interested in the 'legal' side of things. I'm assuming at one point you get banned from the site, but there are many providers, so that doesn't matter much.

- when would I get banned?
- can they confiscate funds?
- can they sue/ is this legal? (assuming that I do not cheat in any way, apart from card counting, so I would not use multiple accounts or breach T&C in any way)
- does this break terms and conditions of, fe partypoker
- do they track programs your using?

I'm a fairly seasoned professional mid-stakes online poker player, and have an engineering degree (mathematically this is not difficult for me). Also I know a lot of (trust-worthy) micro-stakes players, and my end-goal would be to provide the software and coaching to these people. I'm looking to make $20/h at least; so that these people (from eastern Europe), could make a decent living, and I would make money from them.

But I'm a complete newbie, and I've never counted cards (on-line or live). So any help is very much appreciated. It looks so easy, but I'm sure I must be missing something.
FCBLComish
FCBLComish
Joined: Apr 11, 2010
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 549
January 25th, 2019 at 4:32:48 PM permalink
50% pen probably makes this very difficult.

If you are running any kind of software, do it on another box.

Only trust sites that have the Wizard's seal of approval.

Good Luck
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 44
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Thanks for this post from:
rainman
January 25th, 2019 at 4:43:16 PM permalink
Quote: Taroxus

Hi guys,

I was thinking about advantage blackjack play on online live dealer games.

So the rules are:

- 8 decks, deck penetration 50%
- stand soft 17
- no double after split, split only 2 hands, can't hit split AA
- double on any two cards
- no surrender
- blackjack 3:2
- blackjack checked when A, otherwise forfeit all additional bets

That's pretty bad, at 0.62% house edge.

My question is, what if one can see the tables, and the player does not need to bet. We only bet when the shoe is rich. Is this feasible? What ROI could one expect, on average, per bet made. How often would a profitable opportunity come up?

Would there be a big difference between playing basic strategy with high/low count OR using software to determine perfect play for every hand?

Would an online casino catch on to this? If so, could we disguise ourselves by making -EV bets on other games/ playing poker?

In short, my idea would be to have software developed that allows to track a high/low count and give basic strategy input, watch 6 tables, and make bets accordingly. After that, you could develop better software to increase the EV of every bet made.

I'm new to advantage blackjack, and perhaps this isn't doable, for reasons that I don't understand yet. But to me, it looks easy. So perhaps I'm missing something.

I know the long answer from experience. Short answer = forget it.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 164
January 26th, 2019 at 12:19:40 AM permalink
"
My question is, what if one can see the tables, and the player does not need to bet. We only bet when the shoe is rich. Is this feasible? "

Yes, you will beat the game if you never play any negative counts.

"What ROI could one expect, on average, per bet made."

0.5% to 1%. Unfortunately with that penetration more advantageous counts will be extremely rare.



A better question is what would your hourly be. And the answer is not very high, even if you have a $20,000 bankroll. Bad penetration, bad rules, and slow game speed make online live dealer games not very attractive.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 44
  • Posts: 4328
January 26th, 2019 at 2:12:55 AM permalink
Quote: BlackjackGuy123

"

Quote:

"My question is, what if one can see the tables, and the player does not need to bet. We only bet when the shoe is rich. Is this feasible? "


A better question is what would your hourly be. And the answer is not very high, even if you have a $20,000 bankroll. Bad penetration, bad rules, and slow game speed make online live dealer games not very attractive.


The OP is considering doing the wonging and counting robotically, so hourly rate is irreverent. Unfortunately, I KNOW that it would be detected (also automatically) and get flagged for a banning. That makes it pointless unless the OP can keep hopping to a new and unrelated gaff. With the rules that the OP describes, he could watch a table for about 4 hours before even seeing a true count >2. The casino would frequently bounce a lurker from the table (as brief as 2 minutes) and it's that table lurking and hopping that makes him conspicuous.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5467
January 27th, 2019 at 12:34:57 AM permalink
I think I've made at least 100 posts about Online Live dealer blackjack games. Long and the short of it is you'd better have a massive bankroll... due to the short penetration you'll see far fewer betting opportunities and thus when you do see them you'll need to bet harder to make your EV, shooting your RoR up and requiring a rather large bankroll. I've got to imagine some sites will ban winning players, just like regular casinos too...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 842
January 27th, 2019 at 1:45:21 AM permalink
Just when I find a bitcoin ATM within 50 miles of me, I've read that the US Gov't is back on track to prohibit online gambling again.

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