this poster on bjtf claims the El Cortez is cheating at BJ in that their ASM is ordering the cards in a particular way
unlike most claims of cheating this one appears to be more thoughtful
unlike almost all claims of cheating the veteran APs of bjtf did not reject the claim automatically. some thought it feasible
I posted this hoping the Wizard would comment and possibly look into it further and of course hear other knowledgeable APs comment
here is the post verbatim, I had no ethical problem re-posting it since it is already public
also, in this thread on bjtf there was talk of "oppositional " wagering
that is a thinly discussed subject that I would be interested in hearing more about - specifically whether or not it has value
I'm really hoping ZK does not respond to this post because I regard his claims of cheating as having zero credibility
here is the re-post:
"This will sound like a conspiracy theory the likes that a former member here posts at several other sites through the community. And BTW, I am not that former member. And I fear Norm will deleagte this to the disadvantage forum. But I urge you to read the entire post and then play and see for yourself.
First a little background. I have played El Cortez regularly for years, meaning multiple times per week. Hundreds of sessions per year. Unlike other players who find El Cortez unplayable because of the sweatiness that that are known for, I have found a way using a form of opposition betting to play regularly at EC with minimal heat. I combine this form of opposition betting with short sessions and showing bet spread but a couple times per session. And my results have been that every year, EC has been among my best individual casinos, usually top 2. Combined for the last 8 years, EC is my number 1 money maker.
This year started out the same for me, doing quite well at EC. And then things changed about 3 months ago. At this point I want to describe the layout, so those familiar with EC will know what tables I am tabling about. As you enter from the corner of 6th and Fremont, the first 'pit' or group of tables is usually not open. These tables are only in operation during busier times, weekends and holidays. The next 'pit' or group of tables is always in use. And there are 2 double deck tables, one on each side of pit. These tables still remain the typical EC tables. My results are excellent and heat is typical of EC. They sweat even small stakes and small spreads. Opposition wagering seems to confuse them though, even at the green level. Tip: keep your wagers green, even when betting up to $200.
Now at the end of this second pit, there are two new (in the last couple months) double deck games. They are the final two games (end games) of this second pit, before you hit the third pit. One of the games is next to a roulette game, for reference. Now these are the two games that I have had unusual results and have done some pretty significant research (trial size) on.
These are $5 minimum games during the week, maybe $10 on weekends, with newer model ASMs. The kind that can be programmed by entering a code. Not only by my results but my observation of several hundred times through the shuffle of these machines, I believe these machines are in what you may have heard a former member refer to as "beast mode" Basically there is a clump of high cards somewhere in play. A significant clump. This results in every shoe or time through the 2 decks (until shuffle point) at some point reaching a TC of +4 or -4 EVERY single time through the cards.
One of 3 scenarios. 1.) high card clump comes out at the beginning, resulting in a very negative count immediately, that remains, slowly moving back towards zero throughout the remaining cards. 2.) high card clump comes out later, either in the middle or end of cards that are played. This results in a rising count that always reaches TC+4, often more and then the high card clump comes out and the count returns close to zero before the shuffle. You might think this is a card counters dream but it is not. You are at a disadvantage for several rounds when low cards are coming out, and then push 20's when the high card clump comes out. If you are playing with several other players you will notice a round that almost everyone including dealer has 20's. 3,) is that the high card clump is after the shuffle, in which case the count rises throughout the played cards, the counter raising his bets with the rising count and the high value cards never come out (after the shuffle point).
The machine, in this mode that I refer to as "beast mode" makes the high card clump. The player cutting determines the placement of the clump, meaning which of the 3 scenarios above will occur. And all 3 favor the house to varying degrees.
So in my play of these two tables over the past few months, the first thing I noticed was my results, losing results, which I have never had at EC. As continued to play while I suspected what was going on, I noticed something else. There is no heat at these games. Those that play EC regularly know that you frequently see other card counters, usually very low level, small spread and often questionable skill. And you have probably witnessed other counters backed off and likely been backed off yourself. Well at these two tables, card counters spread blatantly and receive no heat. AND they lose!
Over the last month, even though I strongly suspected what was going on, I have continued to play this game, 4-5 times a week, flat betting table minimum, just so I could have a reasonable sample size before I made such accusations, which I am sure sound like a conspiracy theory.
So, for those that play El Cortez, I just wanted to post a heads up.....BEWARE. For those that doubt what I am saying or want to take a look for yourself, I urge you to. Go in and flat bet these two specific tables. You will witness a high card clump with one of the three scenarios stated above....every single time through the cards. TC of +4 or more or -4 or I guess lower (since dealing with a negative). And spread if you want, you will notice the lack of usual EC heat at these two tables."
I'd be interested in observing these tables, simply because it should be very, very easy to observe what the OP is claiming. Go watch 10 deals, and you should see a giant rise or fall of the count nearly every time, with situation #2 yielding a round of all large cards for the table. So I think that's another reason the OP isn't immediately discredited, because he provides his theory in a very, very easy to test way. I would love it if we could get a couple locals to just go watch (not even bet) like 5-10 shuffles each. If we got a few people to do that we could get a bit of a better picture of the OP's theory as immediately even with a smaller sampling size of something like 20 shuffles we should see the scenarios above happening, and we should notice the "high card clump."
I'd be curious of the legalities of said shuffle... "assuming" this is happening (yes a decent sized assumption right now) since the players cut the cards and move the clump "randomly" would it violate any laws/restrictions on keeping the game random? The cards might be random-ish, but the outcome would favor the house more, so not random?
And wouldn't it be sweet irony if it was then possible to exploit it !!!Quote: Romes... and we should notice the "high card clump."
I didn't even want to mention... ;-).Quote: OnceDearAnd wouldn't it be sweet irony if it was then possible to exploit it !!!
Quote: RomesI figure his post wasn't immediately thrown to the wolves because he brings factual and statistical mentions to it. While still not bringing hard facts, the poster shows that he has a large sampling size with EC, enough to possibly see a change.
I'd be interested in observing these tables, simply because it should be very, very easy to observe what the OP is claiming. Go watch 10 deals, and you should see a giant rise or fall of the count nearly every time, with situation #2 yielding a round of all large cards for the table. So I think that's another reason the OP isn't immediately discredited, because he provides his theory in a very, very easy to test way. I would love it if we could get a couple locals to just go watch (not even bet) like 5-10 shuffles each. If we got a few people to do that we could get a bit of a better picture of the OP's theory as immediately even with a smaller sampling size of something like 20 shuffles we should see the scenarios above happening, and we should notice the "high card clump."
I'd be curious of the legalities of said shuffle... "assuming" this is happening (yes a decent sized assumption right now) since the players cut the cards and move the clump "randomly" would it violate any laws/restrictions on keeping the game random? The cards might be random-ish, but the outcome would favor the house more, so not random?
I already observed it, but in another casino. Planet Hollywood, every single 8 deck shoe rises to a TC of +2 using Halves within the first 2.5 decks or so.
Im still in utter disbelief but it looks like my instincts were right ever since I got to Vegas. There are casinos in this town doing some shady shit and thats the unfortunate truth. It honestly makes me not want to play ever again because whats honestly the point if any casino can cheat at will at any point in time.
Quote: ZenKinGIt honestly makes me not want to play ever again because whats honestly the point if any casino can cheat at will at any point in time.
If you really believe they’re all cheating, just keep reading that sentence I quoted over and over again (which should have actually ended with a question mark) until you don’t want to play anymore.
Quote: ZenKinGI already observed it, but in another casino. Planet Hollywood, every single 8 deck shoe rises to a TC of +2 using Halves within the first 2.5 decks or so.
How often should you see a +2 count within 2.5 decks of an 8 deck shoe? It seems like that scenario would be very common in a fair game.
Yeah, but to then go on to lose a hand is unthinkable. For it to happen twice is absolute proof of cheating...Quote: DRichHow often should you see a +2 count within 2.5 decks of an 8 deck shoe? It seems like that scenario would be very common in a fair game.
... not
Which is it? I’m fine with either claim. Pulling tens? Manipulating the order of the cards coming out? Just pick one.
Quote: dogqckHard to believe not one AP in all of Vegas could figure out to bet more at + 4 and less at -4. My, how the mighty have fallen.
I don't think there are many, or possibly any who knew this was happening other than the OP. and it's still not clear if it really is happening.
so, if that was meant as a serious criticism it's not really valid.
If anyone is accusing shufflers of cheating, it is #FakeNews. You can end the thread now.
as everybody know that doesn't sound like the El Cortez.
if it's true and there is no cheating that would mean those tables are slammable
it it's true it sounds strange and you have to wonder
here is what he said about that in case anybody missed it:
" As continued to play while I suspected what was going on, I noticed something else. There is no heat at these games. Those that play EC regularly know that you frequently see other card counters, usually very low level, small spread and often questionable skill. And you have probably witnessed other counters backed off and likely been backed off yourself. Well at these two tables, card counters spread blatantly and receive no heat."
Quote: lilredroosterI don't think there are many, or possibly any who knew this was happening other than the OP. and it's still not clear if it really is happening.
so, if that was meant as a serious criticism it's not really valid.
The OP on the other forum says he has won over a million dollars as an AP. I believe that as much as I believe in beast mode.
Quote: SM777Didn't read the post, but read your summary of it.
If anyone is accusing shufflers of cheating, it is #FakeNews. You can end the thread now.
Prove it
Quote: ZenKinGProve it
Like that would settle anything. There are still dice setting schools. DUH
but it's easy enough to find out if it's true that there is no heat at those tables he's referring to as he claims
any AP who lives in Vegas or is visiting should go there and see if there is no heat at those tables
and absolutely slam them if you believe there is no cheating
If a shuffle machine is capable of 'unshufflng' a deck, and It's generally accepted that they can, then it's a pretty basic modification to have it unshuffle them into some arbitrary but predetermined ( and configurable) order. So, as an engineer, I'd accept the possibility of it clumping the deck. But I'm far, FAR from convinced that a casino would do it. If they did, then a small number of players would analyse and spot what's happening and absolutely destroy those games.Quote: TigerWuI honestly have no idea how card shufflers work, but it doesn't seem like you can just "program it" to have it stack cards in a certain way. I would think there would have to be an entirely separate physical component added on to a fair machine to sort, hold, and stack the cards, and then put it back into circulation with the rest of the deck.
from wikipedia:
"MindPlay was a technology designed to monitor blackjack players' actions while playing in a casino, first released in 2003 and discontinued in 2007.
Because MindPlay tends to thwart their efforts to beat a blackjack game, card counters generally avoid casinos which use the system and its competitors, and often circulate news of such installations on various Internet sites. Some card counters have tried to make the general public aware of the use of these systems, in an effort to convince others not to patronize the games. Indeed, MindPlay has been somewhat slow to spread among American casinos, partly because of the cost (which must be weighed against that of card-counters) and partly because of negative reaction by players. On the other hand, there were many problems with the systems and some players were able to exploit them."
In 2007 Bally stopped supporting MindPlay. The product was plagued by a host of problems, from the cameras not staying calibrated, to the controller boards malfunctioning. These technical problems along with the need for constant software maintenance by Bally staff contributed to the phasing out of this system.
from the 2nd link dated 2005:
"MindPlay is new technology, owned by Alliance Gaming, a leading slot manufacturer. Each card and each chip on the table is marked. By marking both chips and cards, casinos using this device can determine not only a players average bet but also their skill level. By marking every card, the casino can also determine when the shoe (or deck) has turned in the players favor (when it is rich in aces and ten value cards). They can then use this information to reshuffle the cards, thus nullifying the temporary edge the player has."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MindPlay
https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowTopic-g45963-i10-k179572-Blackjack_and_Mindplay_beware-Las_Vegas_Nevada.html
http://www.cboe.com/publish/TTStockSM/06-211.pdf
He said it would set the cards up to kill the player during a shoe. So, when a shuffle was complete I told him why dont you fool the shuffle? You were only playing one hand before the shuffle. Now all the cards are in the shoe now. Spread to 2 or 3 hands. There's no way to adjust once they are in the shoe. Next show go to one hand, or maybe wait for additional players.
It's always the shuffle or the dealer or the other player messing the shoe up or something else ridiculous. The fact that he was down $10,000, bought in for another $1,000 and built it to $15,000, but didn't leave has nothing to do with it. It's the algorythems fault.
Shufflers are not gaffed. They can not be programmed to make people lose more often the the odds and their bad play, there is no best mode, a other player at the table standing on hard 12 with a dealer face card doesn't throw the whole shoe off. But it sure is funny listening to this stuff every night.
ZCore13
Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?
More importantly, I'm trying to figure out who you are/were.Quote: dogqckOP "I'm really hoping ZK does not respond to this post because I regard his claims of cheating as having zero credibility."
Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?
I think what the OP is claiming is that there are multiple clumps of multiple 10s in a shoe. When you are in a clump of Tens, no one wins because it is generally TT vs TT. In between the clumps, it is significantly negative EV because of the absence of Tens. And because there are multiple clumps, it does not greatly matter where the cut card is placed. So that might add 2-3% to the house edge. If done correctly, there would probably be no way for APs to take advantage of it.
Has anyone ever attempted to model the EV from such a pattern?
Quote: gordonm888The technology for ordering a deal from a shuffler certainly exists. There have been multiple patents on this, and many modern shufflers scan and ID all the cards (using microchips in the cards or optical recognition technology) and can deal them in any order for which they are programmed to. The safeguards against crooked shuffler machines are with the certification labs that verify the shuffler machines and their internal programming before they are certified for use.
I think what the OP is claiming is that there are multiple clumps of multiple 10s in a shoe. When you are in a clump of Tens, no one wins because it is generally TT vs TT. In between the clumps, it is significantly negative EV because of the absence of Tens. And because there are multiple clumps, it does not greatly matter where the cut card is placed. So that might add 2-3% to the house edge. If done correctly, there would probably be no way for APs to take advantage of it.
Has anyone ever attempted to model the EV from such a pattern?
Splitting tens?
If the cards are indeed clumped splitting and resplitting tens would grab all the clumped cards - unless yhe dealer takes both cards up front
But if he takes his second card after dealing everyone else then split and resplit until tens fail to appear
Just a thought
EDIT: I know i have seen this somewhere but I imagine in most places the dealer takes both cards upfront
Definitely insurance is offered its upfront
Tie baby Tie
Quote: darkozSplitting tens?
If the cards are indeed clumped splitting and resplitting tens would grab all the clumped cards - unless yhe dealer takes both cards up front
But if he takes his second card after dealing everyone else then split and resplit until tens fail to appear
Just a thought
EDIT: I know i have seen this somewhere but I imagine in most places the dealer takes both cards upfront
Definitely insurance is offered its upfront
The dealing procedure you described (dealer taking the hole card at the end) is done in AC casinos when two or less decks is used. Previously, most stores offered multiple games dealt like this, now only two total games in one property remain.
Quote: Jmarch79The dealing procedure you described (dealer taking the hole card at the end) is done in AC casinos when two or less decks is used. Previously, most stores offered multiple games dealt like this, now only two total games in one property remain.
Thanks
Too bad. Would have been a great counter to this situation i suppose. Would really have thrown them off lol
But, not every shuffler model can sort a deck. And there certainly isn't anything in the software shipped by SHFL that allows you to change the arrangement when the shuffler is in shuffle mode.
Quote: ChumpChangeI'd try to split tens against a dealer low card if I thought it would alter a bad shoe and I was playing alone.
Great idea, because altering a shoe works great. Sometimes I move one spot left or right to throw things off when I'm alone on a table.
ZCore13
lol. I do that. confuses the hell out of the dealerQuote: Zcore13Great idea, because altering a shoe works great. Sometimes I move one spot left or right to throw things off when I'm alone on a table.
ZCore13
How are the decks originally loaded into the shuffler? Let's not start another tangent on pre-shuffled decks, but assume that somehow a clumped-up deck or combinations of decks were loaded into the ASM at the start of the day/shift. Could the overloaded clump of tens be perpetuated across multiple "shuffles" where the mixing of the cards is not random enough to redistribute all of the cards? Suppose a pre-clumped deck was never really shuffled when it was returned to the ASM?
This possibility would not be effected by playing hands differently so that the EXACT sequence of cards is not repeated. Other than a slight variation based on differences in play, all of the cards of a single round would be put into the discard pile together, more or less like they were the shuffle before.
Is this an ASM like I have seen everywhere - two sets of cards are alternated so that play is more or less continuous? Does this situation arise only on every other shoe? So that one deck is pre-conditioned with clumps of tens whereas the alternate deck is not?
Send in a sacrificial player who sits down at the table, plays a few rounds, and then demands that the cards be removed from the shoe and washed in his presence. Or "accidentally" spill a drink on the supposedly gaffed set of cards such that a fresh set of cards needs to be brought out. Rinse and repeat to see if the observed situation continues.
I do not believe that Oswald acted alone. Rosemary Woods erased the 18 minutes on purpose. Tom Brady wanted less air in his footballs. But I don't think this one is a conspiracy. If it is, they got some big ones, those guys running the EC, that's all's I know.
Quote: dogqckYour profession is not listed on your profile. I am guessing casino management employee. Or a member of SHFL's evil empire.
Is that reply directed at me or one of the earlier posters?
Regardless of my profession, further testing of the hypothesis is easy enough to do.
I assume even EC has some kind of daily opening routine that they go through on a regular basis, although where I play they re-open closed pits for business, with fresh decks and an elaborate "wash" of the cards, all the time. Do 24-7-365 casinos in the wild west not have such a mandated process? So does this cheating situation arise right off the bat after opening, or is there some delay before it happens?
Regardless of when it starts, there's an easy way to cause a reset. Force new cards into the shuffler. A spilled drink that lands on the cards will do that.
My profession is a secret, but I bet at somebody at El Cortez as well as SHFL's minions have read this thread.
So maybe that in and of itself has made this irregularity go away due to the increased scrutiny we have all brought to it.
My understanding of some modern shufflers is that a Random Number Generator is used by software to determine a random predetermined sequence of cards for a designated "deal", and then the shuffler machine finds those predetermined cards (on its shelving systems) and makes the random sequence happen. So, in those kind of machines, there is no mechanical shuffling of a stack of cards. Mechanical shuffling has been found to be undesirable because it wears out the cards quicker, and mechanical wear in the ASMs is greater as well, requiring more maintenance, etc. So, doing the randomization of the sequence of cards in the deal with software (much like a monte carlo simulation would) leads to a more reliable mechanical ASM.
I guess there are still automated shufflers that use mechanical systems to scramble the order of the cards into a quasi-random sequence.
"I now have the machine in my possession and in only a couple hours of playing around with it, want to at this time say: This model machine, absolutely have the capability to organize the cards in such a manner. In less than an hour since posting I have received a threatening email, stating it is illigal for me to be in possesion of this product. "
another poster wrote this:
" if true (that this functionality has been built into the machine) then all hell needs to break lose... multimillion dollar class action lawsuits against SHFL Entertainment, letters to government officials demanding that shuffling machines are made to be illegal, etc."
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13The problem is, it's not true.
ZCore13
it's documented that the casinos did something similar with 𝐌𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐘. see the post in this thread from july 10 at 10:46.
I'm not convinced that it's true what the OP at bjtf alleges
but you seem to be saying it's an impossibility
dude, there are a lot stranger things that have happened in this world we live in
it's not an impossibility
Quote: lilredroosterit's documented that the casinos did something similar with 𝐌𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐘. see the post in this thread from july 10 at 10:46.
I'm not convinced that it's true what the OP at bjtf alleges
but you seem to be saying it's an impossibility
dude, there are a lot stranger things that have happened in this world we live in
it's not an impossibility
For it to be a possibility you would have to believe in a lot of almost impossible things. Like:
Shufflemaster changes the code/programming after GLI inspects the chips and then when the chip is received by the casino, their compliance department either doesn't scan the chip for the correct or is in on it and scans it in as GLI compliant even when it's not. If this is the case Shufflemaster would have employees that would know about this and the casino would have people in compliance turning their back that know about it and there would be people in Table Games that set it all up, got Shufflemaster to agree and got their compliance department to lie. And through all of this nobody every blows the whistle.
Or
The chip comes to the casino compliant, but someone in Table Games knows how to reverse engineer the programming to make it do something it was not made to do. It has no capabilities of doing anything other than shuffling and (some machines) sorting back into new deck order. There are no other options. So this rogue Table Games person does this on his own or finds someone in IT or finds some sort of black market hacker and gets this done without anyone ever finding out, including all Table Games personal that would know how to turn this magic setting on and off. But not one person in the department ever blows the whistle.
ZCore13
I presume then he'll SHORTLY post an anonymous video to YouTube proving the shuffler cheating? Repeatedly I might add...Quote: lilredroosterthe OP at bjtf has now posted this;
"I now have the machine in my possession and in only a couple hours of playing around with it, want to at this time say: This model machine, absolutely have the capability to organize the cards in such a manner. In less than an hour since posting I have received a threatening email, stating it is illigal for me to be in possesion of this product. "
another poster wrote this:
" if true (that this functionality has been built into the machine) then all hell needs to break lose... multimillion dollar class action lawsuits against SHFL Entertainment, letters to government officials demanding that shuffling machines are made to be illegal, etc."
Literally, the only major barrier to automated shufflers dealing non-random pre-determined sequences of cards seems to be GLI and their certification protocols.
It is difficult for any of us to know how difficult or easy it would be to change the shuffler from its certified "random" mode to another mode that could conceivably already exist within the operating software package.
Zcore is always very quick to insist that he knows every automated shuffler device in every casino in the US and that they are all random. Here again, he has reacted to charges of casino cheating like a religious zealot who has absolute faith in his ideology. He may be a knowledgable guy, but it is difficult to learn anything from a zealot who does not listen or give credit to anything that he is told.
Quote: gordonm888As has been pointed out before, SHFL was granted a patent >10 years ago for the methodology for an automated shuffler to deal the cards in any pre-determined sequence - with "random" being one of the possible predetermined sequences.
Literally, the only major barrier to automated shufflers dealing non-random pre-determined sequences of cards seems to be GLI and their certification protocols.
It is difficult for any of us to know how difficult or easy it would be to change the shuffler from its certified "random" mode to another mode that could conceivably already exist within the operating software package.
Zcore is always very quick to insist that he knows every automated shuffler device in every casino in the US and that they are all random. Here again, he has reacted to charges of casino cheating like a religious zealot who has absolute faith in his ideology. He may be a knowledgable guy, but it is difficult to learn anything from a zealot who does not listen or give credit to anything that he is told.
Show me one case, just one, of a Shufflemaster shuffle being hacked to not shuffle randomly. This can include a State investigation, criminal charges against a person, an employee having knowledge of a casino changing the chip/coding. Anything. Just one.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13Show me one case, just one, of a Shufflemaster shuffle being hacked to not shuffle randomly. This can include a State investigation, criminal charges against a person, an employee having knowledge of a casino changing the chip/coding. Anything. Just one.
ZCore13
I believe Zcore is most likely correct, with a confidence level of somewhere over 99%, but certainly not 100%.
A few years back if there was someone on "Wizardof Autos" web forum who said the exhaust from a Volvo smelled so bad they must be putting an illegal chip in their cars to fool inspectors I would have said I am over 99% sure that that is just BS for many of the same reasons I list why I don't believe that shuffle machines aren't random. Just food for thought....