Blackjack edge research

I'm currently trying to figure out if my play on a unknown/shady online blackjack is profitable or not.

According to the house edge calculator, the casino edge should be 0.49%

On top of that, they have a 0.085% back on stakes.

This puts the theoretical house edge on 0.405%.

I'm using a classic HI-LO card counting system and I play 3 boxes.

My goal is to figure out the following:
Does the casino have an actual RNG or not? If they don't, my efforts are useless.
Do they reshuffle the deck after every hand or not? My impression is that they reshuffle the deck when you change your bet size. Otherwise it's after 50% of 6 decks.

I restart the game when the running count is a positive number.
After about 1854 hands this has resulted in an overall running count of -134.
So if the casino has a RNG, I'm doing better than the 0.4% house edge.

Another thing I keep track of is the first two hands and their returns.
If they want to discourage card counting and they have a RNG, they might give the customer a low count in the first two hands so they play with a higher count after. So far I'm profitable on the first two hands, but the sample is too low.

I also noticed that after a positive running counted hand, the next hand has around a 75% likely hood of getting a negative count. This number seems high and might indicate lack of RNG.

The last thing I'm trying to figure out is what the house edge would be if I don't change my bet sizes but just restart the game any time my running count turns positive. If this way of playing proves profitable, there is no way for them to get suspicious about my play at all.

To confirm the RNG and continuous shuffling I could track every single card coming out of the deck until I hit the same card 7 times (6 decks are played).
Can you think of any other variables I should track?

I want to play at least 50K hands and decide on the profitability after that.

Hi,
Welcome to the forum.

I play a lot of online RNG blackjack. House edge on the game I play is stated in the game rules as 0.41% and they give me cashback points worth 0.1% So, for recreational play, it's about as good as it gets. But the game rules also say the 6 deck shoe is shuffled after every hand, so to count is useless.

You say you are unsure if your game has an RNG. Well, it will have. The real question is ''does the game faithfully use the RNG to simulate a real game', or is it gaffed to present a game that only looks fair and random but which applies a higher edge.

I'd be surprised and disappointed if the site does not feature a thorough game description which tells you the expected edge or RTP and tells you explicitly when shuffling happens

I wouldn't trust the house unless those details are posted there.

Maybe post a link to the game, or if you wish PM me a link and I'll look at it discretely.

Another issue is when you try and cash out, they can say that they found out that you were counting and they will not pay you your winnings. You will then argue with them and they may or may not then refund your original deposit only, keeping the amount that you beat them for.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Another issue is when you try and cash out, they can say that they found out that you were counting and they will not pay you your winnings. You will then argue with them and they may or may not then refund your original deposit only, keeping the amount that you beat them for.

ZCore13

Indeed. Only trust online casinos as far as you can throw them. I trust mine to a large extent, but even prime brand casino have, and apply a 'we won't pay you if we don't want to' rule. And that's the good ones.

No amount of counting or game strategy will help you if the house is dishonest.

Ok, thank you for the info

I will keep you updated of my progress in testing

Hi peter, and welcome to the forums.

Quote: peter776

I'm currently trying to figure out if my play on a unknown/shady online blackjack is profitable or not.

Well this should really just be the end of the thread. If you're not comfortable playing online then you absolutely shouldn't, ESPECIALLY if the casino in question is "unknown/shady." You really are just gambling at that point because the game could be rigged, it could be rigged well so you just fall 1SD down every time (so the only way you would notice is if you ran 3SD down NORMALLY then got the extra 1SD down for 4SD down)... basically if they did it right they could cheat you and you'd have no way to mathematically prove it.

Next, all of the time, energy, brain power, and money you're wasting on evaluating this could be used elsewhere in a casino or life to come up with another, better, more solid advantage or way of making money, hobby, etc, etc. I swear, if people took HALF the effort they put in to just verifying online casinos to REAL casinos, they'd realize they can make TONS of money at LEGIT casinos governed by laws and rules with HALF the effort =).