Bad Streak

I have posted here a few times as you know I was a progression player but now use hi lo with a 1-8 spread, I have been counting for 6 months or so, started out good with more winning sessions than losing ones. I had built up a profit of 3200 with a 10 dollar unit but last three trips have lost a total of 1600, is this normal I guess? Yesterday I actually played the same table for 3 hours I wong out at -2tc, but it never got below -1, hard to believe I know and I just got hammered, tc of 3 4 and 5 were not often of coarse but did happen and all I would get were 13vsstiff or 17 losing to a 18 or 19, not fun, should I have left that table even though the counts were running good on it.? Advice encouragement needed

Sounds like perfectly normal variance to me. The edge you play with in blackjack is so small it takes a lot of hands (pending different things but "usually" around 70k hands or so) to realize your advantage, if you're playing with one. Here's an analogy for you to contemplate... Say normally when you go to play blackjack just using basic strategy you lose 53/100 times. That means you still win 47 times you go even while playing a losing game. With counting, let's say you flip those odds back on the casino so you win 53/100 times. That still means you will LOSE 47/100 times while even playing with an advantage. Those numbers aren't exact, but I love using that analogy to show people who count that yes, you will lose, and you will lose often. Counting is all about getting to the long run, so getting tons and tons of hands and banking as much EV as you can along the way so that when you get to the long run and realize your advantage there will be a nice pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Regardless if you have a winning or losing session so long as you're playing properly you're adding money to that pot of gold that you can have access to once you've hit your "long run" or N0 (for a more technical term).

The 1-8 spread seems a bit small, what are the rules of the tables you most typically play? 6D S17 DAS DA2, late surrender, no resplit aces? If that's the case, let's pretend you get about 80 hands per hour (average speed) with that ~.42% HE off the top. I'm imagining your game is worse, but hey, let's show you in your "best case scenario" of game selection what your numbers should look like... Always wong out lower than TC -1... Max bet out by TC +4... 75% PEN...

***ASSUMING YOU'RE COUNTING AND PLAYING CORRECTLY*** - many before you have thought they had a winning game when they didn't. This is something you need to be honest and serious with yourself about... and perhaps try to find another more established counter to "check" your skills.

AvgAdv = 1.5% (.015)
AvgBet = $20.52
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 20.52 = $23.60

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet*NumHands)*(Advantage)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

You failed to mention how many hands you have played, but you said you've been playing for 6 months or so. Let's assume you go "on average" at least 1 session per weekend. Let's say your session in 4 hours, which at 80 hands per hour means you've gotten 320 hands per weekend, times 24 weekends (6 months) = 7,680 hands. So let's look at your EV along the way

Disclaimer: Better estimations would come from simulations of your exact play/conditions... This is a good estimate that I've never had issues showing a bit of proper expectation

EV(1,000 hands) = (20.52*1000)*(.015) = $307.80
SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 23.60 = $746.30... 2SD (95% confidence) = $1492.60...

1) So after 1,000 hands you could expect to be up $307.80 +/- $1492.60... meaning you could be DOWN ~$1200... and that would be within the realms of mathematical possibility for the natural variance of the game.

EV(4,000 hands) = (20.52*4000)*(.015) = $1231.20
SD(4,000 hands) = Sqrt(4,000) * 23.60 = $1492.60 ...2SD (95% confidence) = $2985.19...

2) So after 4,000 hands you could expect to be up $1231.20 +/- $2,985.19... meaning you could be DOWN ~$2700... and that would be within the realms of mathematical possibility for the natural variance of the game.

EV(7,700 hands) = (20.52*7700)*(.015) = $2370.06
SD(7700 hands) = Sqrt(7700) * 23.60 = $2070.89... 2SD (95% confidence) = $4141.78...

3) For where you're at NOW, with the above assumptions, you could expect to be up $2,370 +/- $4,141.78... so you could be DOWN ~$1900 and that would be PERFECTLY NORMAL right now. Yet instead you said you were up 3200, and you lost about 1600, so you're UP $1600.... almost near your EV of $2370. So far this means you're running right about your EV, but just slightly below (which trust me, anyone who runs on the left is jealous of this).

You will go through losing streaks that could potentially last months on end. You could see every single 20 you get dealt lose to a dealer 21 for sessions on end. It happens, but the best things you can do are follows:

1) Keep very exact records. You should be logging your sessions, hours played, number of hands played estimate, game rules, EV, AV, etc. Then you can always do what I just did for where you're at to get a little bit of a clearer picture of where you should be and where you could expect to be.
2) You should know your numbers... Hourly EV, RoR, etc.
3) Never stop learning! The most dangerous thing I've seen is someone who learns to count and then thinks "I can count, I don't need to do anything other than play now!" Wrong... Without knowledge of kelly and RoR even the best counter in the world could go broke. Continue researching, reading, and PRACTICING! I always see counters stop practicing at home once they've started counting in a casino. Check yourself, and your skills every so often to make sure you're counting/playing correctly. Learn more index plays. The I18 and F4 should be STANDARD when counting, but it definitely doesn't hurt to expand your knowledge and earn every penny you can while you're at the tables.
4) Evolve your game. As you learn more, grow you bankroll, etc, make adjustments! Up your spread, tweak it for the max EV per average bet (such as having the biggest "jump" in your spread at TC +3 because that's the most bang for your buck TC). Very very few (none that I know of personally) have ever started out with a 1-8 spread at $10 and ended their counting career with the same spread at the same types of games. You'll travel, play DD, 6D, 8D, H17, S17, surrender, no surrender, etc, etc. You must know how to play each of these different rules differently and all of the associated index plays to go along with them. Constantly be looking to evolve your play, counting, and spread so that you're always getting the MAX EV you can... so when you get to that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, there's something nice in it =).

Thanks for the help, as for the game I play a 6 deck 10 dollar table with great pen of about 85% H17 DAS resplit a's to 4, das ex ace, no sur I also play 8 deck 5 dollar table same rules and pen in which I can spread 5-80, what would you suggest as a ramp mine is tc+1> 5, +2 20, +3 40, +4 60, +5 80, on the 10 dollar 6 deck it is the same only 10 instead of 5

As for playing time 3-5 hrs once a week,ihav e a good job this is for additional income and fun

I'd recommend having your max bet out at any shoe game by TC +4... That's a nice spread $5-$80 on the $5 table. Do you spread to multiple hands when you do that?

i have tried it using +3 2h of 30 +4 2 of 40, +5 two of 50, do you feel this is better, what are your thoughts if you were playing it?

If there are other players at the table then two hands is generally better. I always play two hands and then drop to one in extreme negative counts. If you are playing heads up it doesn't matter. 20 max bet downswings are not uncommon, and it does sound like you have some unrealistic expectations about variance in card counting. The variance for winning blackjack players is like a random walk and you must develop a thick skin about it if you are to succeed in the long run. This is one of many reasons why blackjack makes a better part-time job than a full-time career. You should lose almost as frequently as you win. But you should also make sure that you are not making any errors in your play.

What you should do is record a video of yourself playing through several shoes and then post the video here so we can evaluate your play and point out if you are making any fundamental errors. Place a +10 to +15 slug at the start of the shoe so that is guaranteed to go hot because how you play the higher counts is more important.

Romes,

The time you spend dealing with all of us wanna-be counters is invaluable. Your responses are patient, non-confrontational and not the least condescending or patronizing, in spite of the obvious ignorance of the game that we exhibit.

I know a lot about the business I am in, that I've been in all my life. Maybe I'm at the same level as you with what I do. But I do not suffer fools, and that's what most of them are. Fortunately, for me especially, you do not have the same attitude.

I continue to learn, and, as you put it, evolve my game. I continue to have "bad luck" and need to be reminded about the thin margin in this business when I do. Luck, to paraphrase May West, has nothing to do with it.

Thanks again.

Quote: dwight56

i have tried it using +3 2h of 30 +4 2 of 40, +5 two of 50, do you feel this is better, what are your thoughts if you were playing it?

There's a long list of debating that could be done for numerous sides of this equation, but I've settled my opinion on the matter... 2 hands is optimal, but spreading "horizontally" as its referred to can often bring heat, pending where you are and how sweaty the place is. If you've already been going to 2 hands with no problem, then I don't see any reason for that to be a problem in the future. Like all things, you might need cover with or without cost to keep it going (pending how often you play there, only ever go to 2 hands in big counts, etc, etc, etc). Lots to consider on your individual front =).

Next, in Wong's book (again we've debated this on different forums as well) he mentions that 2 hands is the equivalent of 1 hand at 75% of your total bet. Thus, if you spread to 2 hands of $40, for a total of $80, that's not the same as 1 hand of $80. 2 hands of $40 is the same as 1 hand of $60. I too missed this earlier in my career until I started reading all of the books "for fun" after I thought I had a really polished game (first of many times lol). Then I came across this and had the "wow, I've been calculating that incorrectly for a while now." This is why I recommend people learn/practice counting on their own first, then go through and read all the books you can. With some base knowledge on the subject, when you go through the books you'll pick up those little tid bits that apply to your game, such as this.

Also in Wong's book I'm pretty sure he mentions never going past 3 hands or something about depreciating return... or something. It's been a while since I've given it a read, perhaps I need a revisit =P.

Quote: racquet

Romes,

The time you spend dealing with all of us wanna-be counters is invaluable. Your responses are patient, non-confrontational and not the least condescending or patronizing, in spite of the obvious ignorance of the game that we exhibit.

I know a lot about the business I am in, that I've been in all my life. Maybe I'm at the same level as you with what I do. But I do not suffer fools, and that's what most of them are. Fortunately, for me especially, you do not have the same attitude.

I continue to learn, and, as you put it, evolve my game. I continue to have "bad luck" and need to be reminded about the thin margin in this business when I do. Luck, to paraphrase May West, has nothing to do with it.

Thanks again.

racquet, I really appreciate your kind words. When it comes to blackjack it's not about suffering fools for me... I remember when I was starting out and didn't have any of the same information and had to research most of what I learned on my own. I remember ANYONE who was willing to answer any of my posts and being so grateful for them to share their information to help me grow by leaps and bounds in just a few simple responses. It's only because of those before me that I have accumulated as much information/knowledge on the topic that I have... so why not pass it on? The difference might be because blackjack is quite publicly known at this point, and as I said I didn't "think of it" or have any proprietary claim to the information. It's definitely different in other forms of business, or hell even other forms of AP'ing. I know a good amount of information about hole carding and other AP plays, but I'm not quite as willing to share with those =P. So don't paint me out to be too much of a sharing person, but I do like to give back where I can, and it's always nice to know it's appreciated.

Romes,

The information you provide is excellent. I have heard your "Gambling with an Edge" Pod Cast. Very nice.....

Regards....