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Joined: Dec 13, 2014
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September 6th, 2017 at 4:13:49 PM permalink
Pardon my ignorance but is it a myth that when a Progressive Blackjack's jackpot becomes unusually high, that playing the progressive bet becomes +EV? I thought there was no "memory" for when the jackpot will hit or rather nobody is "due" now or in the next hand/round for the game.
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September 6th, 2017 at 4:48:28 PM permalink
The odds of hitting don't change. The payout does.
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:16:19 PM permalink
Yes, some progressive side bets can be +EV. The Wizard of Odds site has a write up for the Super 4 bet and return values for several pay tables and numbers of decks. A “break even” meter value is given for each pay table above which the bet is +EV for a newly shuffled shoe.

Quote: sabre

The odds of hitting don't change. The payout does.

The odds do change based on shoe composition, just as they do for the base game of blackjack. I put together a single-web-page app that shows EV for pay tables you can change and deck compositions for which you can specify the cards left in the shoe. You can give it a whirl here: Super 4 Blackjack Progressive Single‑Level Analysis .

With the right shoe composition the Super 4 bet can be +EV even with a $0 meter. I touched on that subject with this post, a post that is at the end of a very long thread about the Super 4 bet.
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:18:34 PM permalink
If I ask you to pick a number from 1-100 for $1 and will pay you $50 if you hit it, it's a bad bet. If I pay you $200 for it, it's a good bet. Same idea.
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:19:43 PM permalink
Adding a progressive jackpot adds an element of "memory". But, beware. The variance can increase and a larger bankroll may be required.
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
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September 6th, 2017 at 9:05:59 PM permalink
It can become +EV, but I don't think it ever becomes a "worthwhile" bet. For 2 reasons: Huge variance and the taxman.
It might not be the case for all of them.

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