successful at counting?

id like to know how many successful counters out there ?

whats your bankroll? tables min? your max bet?

Fred Renzy claims you have a 10% chance of winning at blackjack using basic strategy

i wonder if these counters are using there systems and fall into this "10%" category? i read lot of posts people losing there 2k-5k-even their 10k+ life savings matter of shoes and days

and then theres Collin who started with a 500$ bank and never looked back so any input would be greatly appreciate!

last thing would you counters prefer a hand shuffle over a machine shuffle??

1) Read my A-Z Articles:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Not only is is probable and plausible, there are many successful counters out there. The thing is most of them either move on to higher EV plays or they want to fly under the radar ghosting for the most part.

2) Fred Renzy is 100% wrong.

3) There's a mix of people whom call themselves "counters" and are actually counters with a winning game. Sure, most just watch for big or little cards, but there are people out there attempting to learn the real deal. I've taught dozens over the years personally, and I'm sure others have some the same.

4) I don't care what kind of shuffle they use so long as I'm relatively positive it's random-ish. Even if it wasn't random it STILL WOULDN'T AFFECT ME due to payers hopping in and out, the number of hands changing, the number of cards the players take changing, etc, etc. The only way it could affect me is to literally pluck out 10 and Ace valued cards and to intentionally put them behind the cut card, which again, you don't know where the player is going to cut. So yeah, doesn't matter even if they did have chinese preshuffled cards.

page 150 and i quote "if that still sounds depressing let me remind you that your chances would be 10% after 1000 hours of perfect strategy" unquote you mean to tell me i cant double my bank account after 6 months of b.s? its still a reasonable chunk of hands played and i ran sims where i flat bet and trippled my bank roll on flat betting alone you sir need to get your facts right!

if the machine tempers with the shuffle I"E puts the high cards behind the cut card 2/3 of the time then you will fail so dont give me that i dont care what shuffle they use, if that machine is cherry pickin them cards where to be in the shoe then you are royally screwged...

as far profitable is concerned i high;y doubt there are more successful counters out there than non successful (threads on this site and on others has proven that) people with higher skill then me get hammered i honestly believe it has to do with the shuffle of the machine its the core of the out come and i think thats why our friend did not succeed in his adventure...

How is this guy not considered a troll? Also squid there is this thing called spellcheck, it works wonders to make your post litterate.

How would the machine put the big cards behind the cut card? How does the machine know where the HUMAN PLAYER will cut, front to back? Answer: it doesn't, AND if AP's noticed the high cards did get chunked they'd 100,000,000% figure out where the big cards were going and just flat bet and HAMMER these machines ALLLLL day long.

There's absolutely positively 99.99% more UNSUCCESSFUL counters than successful... but that doesn't mean there aren't "any" successful ones. If there are 323,000,000 people in america, and of that 73% of are over 21 (wikipedia)... that leaves us 235,790,000 potential gamblers... 64% of which "admit" they gamble, which leaves us 150,905,600... Blackjack has got to be one of the most basic games that everyone has at least tried. Let's say there are only 50,000,000 people that play blackjack on occasion in the US. From that 50,000,000 I'd estimate (as I have done in other threads) that about 1%, or 500,000 people consider themselves "card counters." From that (again my estimation in other threads) I think only another 1% has a truly winning game... which still leaves us 5,000 "winning" card counters in America alone.

Do note that I clearly am rounding down taking 1% of 1% and all of my other numbers about population can be found via Google. So you see, the vast majority are not card counters, but there still are plenty of successful card counters out there.

Quote: sidthesquid

page 150 and i quote "if that still sounds depressing let me remind you that your chances would be 10% after 1000 hours of perfect strategy" unquote you mean to tell me i cant double my bank account after 6 months of b.s? its still a reasonable chunk of hands played and i ran sims where i flat bet and trippled my bank roll on flat betting alone you sir need to get your facts right!

if the machine tempers with the shuffle I"E puts the high cards behind the cut card 2/3 of the time then you will fail so dont give me that i dont care what shuffle they use, if that machine is cherry pickin them cards where to be in the shoe then you are royally screwged...

as far profitable is concerned i high;y doubt there are more successful counters out there than non successful (threads on this site and on others has proven that) people with higher skill then me get hammered i honestly believe it has to do with the shuffle of the machine its the core of the out come and i think thats why our friend did not succeed in his adventure...

I think Fred meant perfect card counting strategy.

And the shufflers can't tamper with anything. They don't know where people will cut the cards.

Quote: sidthesquid

page 150 and i quote "if that still sounds depressing let me remind you that your chances would be 10% after 1000 hours of perfect strategy" unquote you mean to tell me i cant double my bank account after 6 months of b.s? its still a reasonable chunk of hands played and i ran sims where i flat bet and trippled my bank roll on flat betting alone you sir need to get your facts right!

if the machine tempers with the shuffle I"E puts the high cards behind the cut card 2/3 of the time then you will fail so dont give me that i dont care what shuffle they use, if that machine is cherry pickin them cards where to be in the shoe then you are royally screwged...

as far profitable is concerned i high;y doubt there are more successful counters out there than non successful (threads on this site and on others has proven that) people with higher skill then me get hammered i honestly believe it has to do with the shuffle of the machine its the core of the out come and i think thats why our friend did not succeed in his adventure...

The only thing I see from your posts is a desire to criticize and insult a contributing member of this forum. Sad state of affairs that your existence is tolerated. JMO

I don't believe Fred is wrong, I think Timthetroll is quoting him out of context.
The actual quote is this. " As your hours with an edge mount however, your cumulative chances keep improving. After 1000 hours of playing the KISS Count, the chances you will be a net winner are over 80%. If that sounds depressing, let me remind you your chances would be 10% after 1000 hours of perfect basic strategy."
At this point, his KISS count is only tracking 6 1/2 ranks. KISS2 adds the 3 and the 10 so you are now tracking 8 1/2 ranks.

alright Mr smarty pants then why in the world only 1% of counters succeed (if that!) and rest are bankrupt losers when they punch in their 1k-2khours or 6-12months of pure blackjack?? answer me that

i dare you go to a blackjack table with min bet is 20$ like in sands pa fight those 8 deckers, those better rules than atlantic shtty with their h17 and no surr and resplit aces once go for it, i wanna hear how you lost your cool 1k$ or doubled it, i presume 1-8 bet spread will last you about 3-5hr ish if your lucky, and 2hr with the full blown 1-12 spread with a 1k$ bankroll bet min being 20$ or 25$

so go for it tell us all about it

And if you want some fun sing ob la di bla da

For that game, I'd have a minimum BR of $10,000.

Quote: billryan

And if you want some fun sing ob la di bla da

You left out an "ob"

did you take your 10k$bankroll down? what? im sorry you did not want to lose your money trying to count cards like so many others? i honestly believe counting cards is a bunch of Krap!

Quote: DeMango

You left out an "ob"

That's the chorus. I quoted the last line of the song.

Quote: sidthesquid

alright Mr smarty pants then why in the world only 1% of counters succeed (if that!) and rest are bankrupt losers when they punch in their 1k-2khours or 6-12months of pure blackjack?? answer me that

First, I'm guessing from my experiences and from teaching dozens of students myself... so the number could be much higher than 1%, that's just my guess.

Next, most counters fail because they learn the basics of +1 and -1, and maybe even deviations, but they have no concept of Bankroll Management, Kelly Betting, or Risk of Ruin. Without understanding these fundamental blocks, one is doomed. That simple. Did you know that if you bet more than 2x kelly on your bankroll you are MATHEMATICALLY GUARANTEED to bust??? No matter what else you do... and the vast majority of new counters vastly over-bet their bankroll... Quite simple to understand really.

Quote: sidthesquid

i dare you go to a blackjack table with min bet is 20$ like in sands pa fight those 8 deckers, those better rules than atlantic shtty with their h17 and no surr and resplit aces once go for it, i wanna hear how you lost your cool 1k$ or doubled it, i presume 1-8 bet spread will last you about 3-5hr ish if your lucky, and 2hr with the full blown 1-12 spread with a 1k$ bankroll bet min being 20$ or 25$

so go for it tell us all about it

First, the rules are "kinda" important, but what's VASTLY more important is the penetration and the heat on the game. If the PEN and heat are good, then I'll be spreading 1-15 or 1-20 on those 8 deckers... After that, one session means literally nothing. You might win you might lose but if I did that on those games for 75k hands or more, then yes, I'll be a winner. Sounds like you had a few bad sessions and you want to complain and blame something else other than yourself or variance... That's not the proper mindset for a counter/AP at all as it shows you don't fully understand the math behind the game and what variance even really is.

Quote: sidthesquid

did you take your 10k$bankroll down? what? im sorry you did not want to lose your money trying to count cards like so many others? i honestly believe counting cards is a bunch of Krap!

annnnnnnd clearly you're just a troll at this point. There's beyond enough literature and mathematical analysis to PROVE it works. It's not a debate. It's not an argument. It 100% works. Try reading my A-Z articles, as that explains all the facets one needs to know to have a winning game... and the articles prove that not only is it mathematically proven, but it's also viable/plausible with today's games. You clearly either don't understand the game or you're just flat out trolling.

Quote: Romes

Next, most counters fail because they learn the basics of +1 and -1, and maybe even deviations, but they have no concept of Bankroll Management, Kelly Betting, or Risk of Ruin. Without understanding these fundamental blocks, one is doomed.

All of this here is very important. It happens when you watch videos of clowns like Patrick, Morgenstern, and a host of other fools. This game takes a lot of practice and definitely a nice sized bankroll. Walking in with $1000 (Or $300 like some YouTubers) hoping to succeed is wishful thinking.

if you believe im a troll then i believe casinos are taking everyones money at the black jack tables counters and non counters (atleast early in for the counters) maybe the ZenKing and the Stabworld fell into that 5% of margin of failure early in maybe they did not?
one thing is certain that the majority of shuffles do favor the dealer (if it wasn't so many counters wouldn't have gone broke)
and reading how on other counters went broke at the tables really begs the question if they went in with 100 or even 50 max bets

theres only two blackjack software that emulate real life blackjack shuffle and casino verite is certainly not one of them

you forgot donny millionaire ibeatyouraces =)

you forgot donny millionaire ibeatyouraces =)

Squid, you may have read a book and have a friend who tried to be a card counter - but that does not mean you are knowledgable about the world of card counters and what can and cannot be done.

Romes has been a successful Advantage Player (Card counting and other methods) for many years. Your claims/assertions come across as juvenile, and your attempt to pick an argument with Romes and others is pointless. We know Romes and we don't know you. And, so far, we are not impressed with you.

If you ask a question, then pay attention to the answers you get. Its okay to keep an open mind -but if you want to be abusive to the people that post polite and knowledgeable answers then perhaps you should go somewhere else.

First I have to say I admire the more experienced members of this forum for answering this so seriously. I initially dismissed it as the usual troll ranting against casinos and calling conspiracy, but it shows I got a long way to go! Kudos guys.

And to answer your post Squid, yes counting works, but it takes many things for it to work.
Casinos don't need to rig the shufflers they have the advantage anyway, and even more than the house edge they have human emotion on their side, and it's really hard to get the advantage over it, and very easy to forfeit that advantage. I have seen it with overbetting, emotional decisions on big bets or not keeping track of tips when winning for example. And even if you have a winning game I wouldn't recommend it as a way to make money, it's a very small edge with high variance.

But more importantly understand before you rant that most people here understand the math, and know for a fact why counting works. Many have proof of it on their bank accounts and they don't have to convince you or prove it to you. I am personally amazed at their restraint!