Single Deck Blackjack 3/2 BJ Payout S17, Late Surrender

So, yesterday after a poker house game I was playing at broke, I offered if anybody wanted to play blackjack with me heads up, and they can be the house.

I got a bite.

1 deck
S17
Late Surrender
Resplit Aces
Penetration - "NO CUT CARD" Lol... 90%+

I was playing 1 hand on all 0 and negative counts, then played 3 hands anytime the count was +1 or higher.
My bet spread was $50-$300.
$50 on neutral and negative counts , (1 hand)
+1- $100 (3 hands)
+2 - $200 (3hands)
+3 or higher - $300 (3 hands)

We played for 12 hours straight.

My hourly EV+ I calculate at around $2,000. I estimated this based on casino verite playing 2 hands and multiplied by 1.5 to compensate for playing 3 hands. I notice when you input into the sim a single deck, it dosent give you the option to say you can play 1 hand at neatral and negative counts and 2 hands on positive counts. Also, you cant input playing 3 hands into the sim.

Anyway, I managed to actually lose $6,000 after 12 hours. The problem was, I only had $6,000 as a trip bankroll, so my risk of ruin was probably close to 50% playing at that level.

I want to try to convince him to play me again, (a chance to win my money back). But, this time I will bring a bigger bankroll. Maybe closer to 20k.

My expected value on this situation is Huge. But, I don't want to go broke again playing.

Any opinions, on what I should do to give myself the best chance of not losing my trip bankroll again?

Lower my max bet (sacrifice +EV),? bring more of a bankroll? Change the amount of hands I should play?

Quote: stabworld

$50 on neutral and negative counts , (1 hand)
+1- $100 (3 hands)
+2 - $200 (3hands)
+3 or higher - $300 (3 hands)

Why ramp up at all at +1? You are very barely at any advantage. In fact, I doubt you had any. Yet that is probably the bunch of games where you were throwing most money.
Were you afraid of heat :)

Quote: stabworld

I want to try to convince him to play me again, (a chance to win my money back). But, this time I will bring a bigger bankroll. Maybe closer to 20k.

Don't forget that the effort will be futile unless you can convince him to also bring a massive trip bankroll. Unless he's well trusted.

You should have a substantial advantage at TC +1. Almost certainly in the +.8% range, although I'd need to sim it to be sure. single deck is worth +.48%.


But if villain is cheating you don't have any advantage at all.

I estimate you lost about 1.7% of what you wagered. 12 hours of play for a single player is nothing. Just regular variance ?

Were the cards domestic or from China?

Quote: billryan

Were the cards domestic or from China?

Oh no. Not that again. Please - let's keep that in it's original thread. It's like kudzu and gypsy moths. Once it gets out, we won't be able to kill it.

I doubt he was cheating, although I was super drunk , the deck was used from the poker game and I know the guy well who runs the poker game , the deck wasnt marked/. Regardless - he was making no decisions - he has to hit stand according to dealer rules.

Anyway, on my way to play poker - he will be there- gonna try to get him to play me again.

Bankroll, he will have money .

well he could deal seconds

He didnt want to play -

Quote: OnceDear

Why ramp up at all at +1? You are very barely at any advantage. In fact, I doubt you had any. Yet that is probably the bunch of games where you were throwing most money.
Were you afraid of heat :)

I actually had an advantage even at a neatral count - .2% i believe-

No heat- he has no idea of advatage play or card counting - or that he was letting me play a single deck with the best rules, no cut card, and wheir there wasnt even a house advantage (as he was playing the house)

- he just wanted to gamble and play blackjack

Sounds like a dream scenario, assuming you still play perfectly when drinking, and that he wasn't cheating you since you were playing for a large sum of money at "someones house" after a poker game... Yeah, I've seen all kinds of people cheat in those scenarios. With a game that's +EV off the top, to play for TWELVE HOURS straight I find it almost hard to be down (then again you were under funded admittedly) but still...

If I read the rules correctly: 1D, S17, DA2, DAS, NRSA, SP4, LS you would have almost a .2% edge off the top.

I don't have the frequencies for 1D 90%+ PEN (forgive me lol) but based on other figures I'd estimate your Average Bet to be around $300?

Under assuming, estimating getting about 100 hands per hour... 12 hours = 1,200 hands

Also averaging saying you played with an average of a 2.5% advantage (most counters are 1-2%, but with the insane PEN and favorable rules....)

OriginalSD = 1.15*300 = 345

EV(1200 hands) = (1200*300)*(.025) = $9000
SD(1200 hands) = Sqrt(1200)*345= ~$12k... 2SD = $24k ... 3SD = $36k

So from my VERY ROUGH and VERY ESTIMATING numbers, you were almost down about 1SD. Not enough to confirm anything shady per say... but alas these are simply educated guesses to get a "rough idea." Your SIM is more accurate, for sure, but just wanted to do it to see some numbers myself and compare.