Ace-Five Question

Sorry - reposting this from the "Betting Systems" page as it belongs here instead (admin - feel free to delete the other one):

I've been using the Ace-Five count for a few years now on trips to Vegas and I'm very happy with it. I had a question on the following phrase: "If the count is greater than or equal to two, then double your last bet, up to your maximum bet." Do I take this literally, i.e. if the count stays at 2 for three hands and I'm playing $100 a hand, do I double to $200 on hand 2, then to $400 on hand 3 and then to $800 on hand 4? Or do I keep it at $200 until the count goes to +3, then double to $400, then when it goes to +4, double again to $800.

I've played both ways and had success both ways (small sample size yes, have only been using this for the past 8 trips to Vegas). Basically when I have a lot of money, I'm more likely to double if the count stays at +2, but If I just started a session or if I'm getting beaten around, I'll tend to be more conservative and only double again on +3 and +4 or above.

Anyone know which way the Wizard used in the simulation mentioned on the Ace-Five page?

Pretty please, spare me the "if you're going to learn a count, just learn hi-lo" speech. I just can't have play and have fun using hi-lo, I don't have those skills yet. I've done it, but I feel like the walls are closing in on me. Ace-Five (plus of course good table selection and perfect play) at least assures me that I'm doing something to shift the odds in my favor. Plus it's working - can't argue with the results, and it's more or less effortless. I put down my mlife card for comps, chat up the dealer and pit boss and have fun. No need to hide or be sneaky. Anyway, I just wanted to respond to those questions before they even come up.

Thanks!

From the quote you posted it would sound as though you do indeed keep doubling your bet up to your 'max bet.' The idea here is if the count is high, then it stays high it's 'trying' to account for getting deeper in to the shoe. In other counts they take the number of cards remaining in to count. Since you're slightly familiar with Hi/Low this is how they convert to the true count. Thus in A-5 if "more cards come out" and the count remains the same then it's making the assumption that the solution of cards still left is even better (i.e. the true count would raise) albeit in a crude fashion.

What's your bankroll, average bet, total spread, RoR, and EV for each of your trips? Doesn't matter if you use A-5 or any other counting system you still need to know all of these things or inevitably you'll go to ruin. Thus, if you don't know these things you're not getting the odds in your favor and playing with a real advantage. Any successes would be short term variance.

The idea of re-doubling consecutive wins using A5 with a +2 or better count prevents your "bank" of remaining chips from growing during your lucky streak. I would increase like this 20, 30, 40, 60, 80.

When I did work on this a long time ago, and capped it off with CVData 3.0, its better to use the count to determine the wager.... +2 or +3 = 2x, +4 = 4x, and +5 or better 7x. (conservative play is +4 or +5= 4x, and +6 or more is 7x) Its also important not to increase the bet until you win, and never more than a parlay... you don't want to look like a counter.

JMHO's
98

How many number of decks are you playing? Single deck from Ace-5 literature has pretty much disappeared. H17 as well right? Can this count overcome the House Edge with reasonable confidence. I suspect the variance would be insane in 6 deck? Anymore thoughts and actual analysis done by anyone about these factors?

Quote: andyv718

Do I take this literally, i.e. if the count stays at 2 for three hands and I'm playing $100 a hand, do I double to $200 on hand 2, then to $400 on hand 3 and then to $800 on hand 4?

Based on the wizardofodds article this would be correct

Quote: andyv718

Pretty please, spare me the "if you're going to learn a count, just learn hi-lo" speech. I just can't have play and have fun using hi-lo, I don't have those skills yet. I've done it, but I feel like the walls are closing in on me.

This is a reasonable position, but you're barely shifting the odds in your favor. It should be possible to come up with a modified hi-lo, that requires virtually no additional mental calculations then what you're currently using. I'll come up with one this afternoon and ask for opinions. Again based on the wizardofodds article, maximizing ace-five count requires a 1-32 spread. For some that would be risking all the fun for the possibility of feeling sick after a losing streak.

Quote: Romes

What's your bankroll, average bet, total spread, RoR, and EV for each of your trips? Doesn't matter if you use A-5 or any other counting system you still need to know all of these things or inevitably you'll go to ruin.

Very few people who visit casinos know anything about these things other than most basic and unrefined estimate, yet only the poorest or most addicted will ever reach complete ruin.

Thanks for all the responses - I appreciate it. I'm still looking for a definitive response from the Wizard on how he ran his simulations. It seems the consensus is that even when the count stays at +2, I should keep doubling. I agree. I have the software that he mentions he uses to run the simulations, but I can't quite get it to work correctly.

A few things - I always only start at tables with a .28% advantage (from the bj survey page here. 6 decks, liberal rules). Since I'm playing for comps, it's always at the MGM properties. It seems that nowadays the only tables that have these favorable rules are the higher limit tables, so that's what I've worked up to. Good table selection and perfect play are (obviously) pre-requisites.

I only spread 1-8 for a few reasons, but mostly as you spread more, your average bet increases and at these higher limits, my required trip bankroll would be more cash than I'm comfortable getting onto an airplane with. Plus, I'm fine losing my trip bankroll and not playing anymore. I fly into vegas a few times a year for work and plan to spend about four hours a day for four days at the tables (just a few thousand hands per trip). I don't do this professionally.

I fully realize that I'm only getting a small edge. But I'm fine with it. The idea of playing a game with any house edge seems crazy - why would anyone do this? If I can barely shift the odds in my favor, then I can enjoy gambling (and, of course, the comps) and at least sleep well at night knowing that I'm not blindly giving my money away and that it's at least a fair fight. If you can come up with a better system that's just as easy to learn, then I'll be on board. But I've practiced Ace-Five and I'm fine with the tiny edge, so that's what I went with. Plus, I like the fact that I can be relaxed and use it, I literally look at the table for two seconds when the cards come out, and then adjust the position of my toes/feet to lock in the count - it's idiot proof.

In terms of trip bankroll, I use the Ace-Five page as my guide. At a $50 table, my average bet would be $135 spreading 1-8, and at a $100 table, it would be $270. I always bring 200x average bet as bankroll so that's either ~$25k, or ~$50k. In terms of RoR and EV, I'm squarely in the "unrefined estimate" category that TomG mentioned. In fact, perhaps one of you guys can calculate my EV and RoR from this info and let me know. Because it's a trip bankroll, my "ruin" just means I stop playing and do something else. But that hasn't happened for at least the last half dozen trips.

I'm probably a step or two above "average guy going to vegas playing blackjack" but three or four steps below most people on this forum. Variance was a good friend of mine when I first started playing, now I think my most important skill is setting upper and lower limits on playing, and sticking to them.