fearlessdragon
Joined: Apr 13, 2017
• Posts: 23
May 29th, 2017 at 5:59:48 AM permalink
Hi,
Can i beat the below game with WOnging 1-4 bet spread? I have limited bankroll, so i am wonging. I am using Hi-Lo count. I enter the game with count >= +2 and leave when count <=0.

8 decks, S17, DA, DAS, LS. Pen> 75%

my betting ramp will be
count Bet
2 \$5
3 \$10
4 \$15
>=5 \$20

QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 274
May 29th, 2017 at 6:17:11 AM permalink
Yes, SCORE is about 25. But, your win rate will be very small as you will spend most of your time waiting.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
fearlessdragon
Joined: Apr 13, 2017
• Posts: 23
May 29th, 2017 at 6:21:56 AM permalink
Can you pls give me an example like avg hourly winnings? Thanks for your input
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 274
May 29th, 2017 at 6:24:37 AM permalink
Neighborhood of \$3 assuming you are standing behind one table. If there are a lot of open tables, this goes up as you can look for another table when you wong-out.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
fearlessdragon
Joined: Apr 13, 2017
• Posts: 23
May 29th, 2017 at 6:31:36 AM permalink
Ok. Thanks again for your inputs.
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
• Posts: 376
May 29th, 2017 at 11:53:06 AM permalink
Quote: fearlessdragon

Can you pls give me an example like avg hourly winnings? Thanks for your input.

I certainly do not have the wide-ranging math expertise of QFIT or the other Mathletes. I will just offer you the calculations made with Stanford Wong's TC frequency and EV. QFIT rounded it off to \$3.00

You can see from the Excel sheet that you could increase your EV by varying the amounts of your ramp, to the extent your BR allows. For example, ramp at \$25 for TC=+6, 7, 8 and your EV is now \$3.104.

Don't forget about HEAT if you are Wonging in/out.

As a newbie, I welcome clarification if the Mathletes say this is an incorrect use of Stanford Wong's table, or if I have overlooked other factors you should know about.

Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 274
May 29th, 2017 at 12:08:45 PM permalink

- Increasing to \$25 at TC +6 would also increase risk by 30%.
- A spread of 1:5 is not usually advised when Wonging as Wonging requires a lower spread than play-all.
- Wonging in at +2 and out at zero would still include hands at some of the +1 counts.
- But, there is a larger problem. The TC frequencies in that table are incorrect as Wonging alters TC frequencies. For example, if you Wong in at +2 and out at zero, the TC freq. at +2 will be double that of +1 instead of lower. Also, higher TCs will have higher freqs because you are skipping rounds near the beginning of the shoe and the deeper you go, the wider the range of TCs.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
• Posts: 376
May 29th, 2017 at 1:37:34 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

- Increasing to \$25 at TC +6 would also increase risk by 30%.
- A spread of 1:5 is not usually advised when Wonging as Wonging requires a lower spread than play-all.
- Wonging in at +2 and out at zero would still include hands at some of the +1 counts.
- But, there is a larger problem. The TC frequencies in that table are incorrect as Wonging alters TC frequencies. For example, if you Wong in at +2 and out at zero, the TC freq. at +2 will be double that of +1 instead of lower. Also, higher TCs will have higher freqs because you are skipping rounds near the beginning of the shoe and the deeper you go, the wider the range of TCs.

Thanks for chiming in with the experiences that I truly haven't had yet. I have yet to Wong, so I just can't add anything other than the table, and I didn't know about frequency changes when one skips rounds.

--> fearlessdragon, take note!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 274
Thanks for this post from:
May 29th, 2017 at 1:49:31 PM permalink
A basic rule in BJ. Everything affects everything else. Add one index, and other indices may change. Change one rule, and that may affect the EV of other rules. Another player entering or leaving your table during the shoe changes EV. Wonging in and/or out completely changes the performance calculations. Some of this is minor. Some not. And no, you don't need to know everything I spew.:)
Last edited by: QFIT on May 29, 2017
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
fearlessdragon
Joined: Apr 13, 2017