5 cards plus don't lose hand=2x stake bonus

A casino near me is doing a special offer on Blackjack this weekend: if you have exactly 5 cards in your hand and stand, and you push or win the hand, you get 2 times stake. For example if your original stake was $10 and you stand with 5 cards then if you win you get $40 and if you push you get $30 including original stake. If you take a 6th card or lose you don't get any bonus. The rules are:

Dealer stands on all 17s
European No Hole Card, dealer takes everything on the table in case of BJ
One split only, no hitting split aces.
Soft 21 automatically stands

My guess as to some variations to basic strategy I ought to use are

5 cards:
Stand on everything

4 cards:
Hard 17: Hit against dealer 9, 10 or A
Hard 16 or lower against anything except 4 5 or 6: hit
Hard 12, 13, 14 versus dealer 4: hit
Hard 12, 13 versus dealer 5 or 6: hit
Soft 20: hit except against dealer 9 or 10
Soft 18/19: hit on everything.

3 cards:
Soft 18: hit on everything

Don't split Aces or 2s
Don't double 11s v 10 or 9

I haven't crunched the numbers as I don't know how, but that modified strategy feels right to me, although I'm sure it could be improved a lot. Any advice/suggestions?

Make sure you use the restroom before the timeframe of the promotion starts. Keep beef jerky with you as it's filling and hopefully will make you pee less. Play until they cut the promotion off, lol.

Also, you said 2x stake... if you bet $10, one would think you'd win 20 (2x)... but you said $30 for push and $40 for win?

Quote: Romes

Make sure you use the restroom before the timeframe of the promotion starts. Keep beef jerky with you as it's filling and hopefully will make you pee less. Play until they cut the promotion off, lol.

Also, you said 2x stake... if you bet $10, one would think you'd win 20 (2x)... but you said $30 for push and $40 for win?

I think he's saying if you bet $10 and win the hand, you get your $10 for winning Plus An additional 2x your original bet.

A simpler way to put it would've been a 5 card win pays 4-1 and a 5 card push pays 3-1

Quote: Romes

Also, you said 2x stake... if you bet $10, one would think you'd win 20 (2x)... but you said $30 for push and $40 for win?

As I said in the OP those were values including original stake so a win is $10 original stake+$10 normal winnings+$20 bonus from promo. Push is $10 OS+$20 promo.

Quote: michael99000

A simpler way to put it would've been a 5 card win pays 4-1 and a 5 card push pays 3-1

No, that would be confusing. If someone told me they were going to pay me 4-1 on a $10 bet with no clarification, I'd assume I was getting $40 of their money, plus my $10 back for a total of $50

Quote: DapperDanMan

No, that would be confusing. If someone told me they were going to pay me 4-1 on a $10 bet with no clarification, I'd assume I was getting $40 of their money, plus my $10 back for a total of $50

No, your way is confusing. I've never heard of blackjack winnings being quoted as including the amount that the player originally bet. You said "if you bet $10 and win you get $40". The way to phrase it is, if you bet $10, you win $30. It's already implied in non video blackjack that you get to keep your original wager on any win

Quote: michael99000

No, your way is confusing. I've never heard of blackjack winnings being quoted as including the amount that the player originally bet. You said "if you bet $10 and win you get $40". The way to phrase it is, if you bet $10, you win $30. It's already implied in non video blackjack that you get to keep your original wager on any win

No, my way was perfectly clear. I specifically stated "including original stake" in the OP. You said I should have said 4-1 when I said $40 including original stake. Blackjacks are normally paid out at 3-2. By your logic that would mean I only get $15 back on a $10 stake. In any case please drop your pedantic nitpickery. If anybody can give me any actual advice on the strategy please help.

Quote: DapperDanMan

5 cards:
Stand on everything

Yes! (except hit these extremely rare hands: 10 vs all, hard 11 vs 7-A, and soft 15 and 16 vs A.)

Quote: DapperDanMan

4 cards:
Hard 17: Hit against dealer 9, 10 or A
Hard 16 or lower against anything except 4 5 or 6: hit
Hard 12, 13, 14 versus dealer 4: hit
Hard 12, 13 versus dealer 5 or 6: hit
Soft 20: hit except against dealer 9 or 10
Soft 18/19: hit on everything.

The strategy for 4 cards is simpler: hit soft 20 and hard 17 vs all.

Quote: DapperDanMan

3 cards:
Soft 18: hit on everything

And hit soft 19 except vs 7 or 8. Stand on hard 15 vs 2, hard 14 vs 3-6, and hard 17 vs 7-A.

Quote: DapperDanMan

Don't split Aces or 2s
Don't double 11s v 10 or 9

Only split Aces vs 2-6. Split 2s vs 5-6; split 3s vs 4-7. Yes--double 11 only vs 2-8. Double 10 vs 2-8.


These results are based on an infinite-deck model with your rule that pushing and winning hands get a bonus of two units. The split advice is based on the pushing/winning bonuses applying to each hand of the split, too. My preliminary infinite-deck player's edge is 2.08%.

Quote: DapperDanMan

No, my way was perfectly clear. I specifically stated "including original stake" in the OP. Blackjacks are normally paid out at 3-2. By your logic that would mean I only get $15 back.

If I bet $10 on a hand, and I get a blackjack, the way to phrase what occurred is that "I won $15". Not that "I got back $25" lol. You never gave up the original $10 to begin with. You only put it in the circle.

Thanks Chester Dog

Michael, you're wrong but I'm not going to engage you any further.

Quote:

Yes! (except hit these extremely rare hands: 10 vs all, hard 11 vs 7-A, and soft 15 and 16 vs A

This is confusing me. Why would I hit, foregoing any chance of the bonus, on S15 and S16 but not S12, S13 or S14 given that as stood hands they're identical but Soft 12-14 is clearly a better hittable hand?

Quote: DapperDanMan

This is confusing me. Why would I hit, foregoing any chance of the bonus, on S15 and S16 but not S12, S13 or S14 given that as stood hands they're identical but Soft 12-14 is clearly a better hittable hand?

I was going to write, "hit soft 12-16 vs A," but then I realized that soft 15 is the smallest five-card soft hand (AAAAA.)

withdrawn - I misunderstood Chesterdog's post.

Quote: DapperDanMan

Thanks Chester Dog

Michael, you're wrong but I'm not going to engage you any further.

There is no right or wrong as it's a matter of PERSPECTIVE. I too was a bit confused by the "bet $10, get $40, but yeah it's a 2x promotion!" but you clarified what you meant and that was that. Personally (not right or wrong just personal preference) I'd refer to this promotion as paying a 3-1 BONUS in addition to the hand on any 5 card hand that pushes or wins. Thus, $10 bet push = $30... $10 bet win = $40.

Quote: ChesterDog

I was going to write, "hit soft 12-16 vs A," but then I realized that soft 15 is the smallest five-card soft hand (AAAAA.)

Of course! D'oh!

Is $10 the max bet or was that just an example?

Quote: AxelWolf

Is $10 the max bet or was that just an example?

$50 max bonus per hand. (You can bet more than $25 per hand if you wish, but that would be diminishing EV whilst this promo is on.)

Quote: DapperDanMan

$50 max bonus per hand. (You can bet more than $25 per hand if you wish, but that would be diminishing EV whilst this promo is on.)

Ouch, $25 max bet... Well, there goes that ship.

Even if you're getting 100 hands per hour, $25 max bet, 2% player edge (as suggested previously)... Let's say you played for 20 hours in the 1 weekend:

EV(20 hours) = (2000*25)*(.02) = $1,000
SD(20 hours) = $1,285... 2SD = $2,571

So with 95% certainty, assuming you get 100 hands per hour for 20 hours, you'll expect $50/hour for a total profit of $1,000 +/- $2,571. I mean, if you're a red chipper then hey this isn't too bad at all ($50/hour), but for trying to make serious money looks like a dud.

Quote: Romes

Ouch, $25 max bet... Well, there goes that ship.

Even if you're getting 100 hands per hour, $25 max bet, 2% player edge (as suggested previously)... Let's say you played for 20 hours in the 1 weekend:

EV(20 hours) = (2000*25)*(.02) = $1,000
SD(20 hours) = $1,285... 2SD = $2,571

So with 95% certainty, assuming you get 100 hands per hour for 20 hours, you'll expect $50/hour for a total profit of $1,000 +/- $2,571. I mean, if you're a red chipper then hey this isn't too bad at all ($50/hour), but for trying to make serious money looks like a dud.

It's not bad If it's right there in your back yard.

Can you plz share where's this casino located if you don't mind?

Quote: DapperDanMan

Thanks Chester Dog

Michael, you're wrong but I'm not going to engage you any further.

I have to take Michael's side on this,it was confusing.