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Wino
Wino
Joined: Dec 13, 2014
  • Threads: 45
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April 25th, 2017 at 12:45:43 AM permalink
Let's say this is about Blackjack straight counting; no advanced techniques. The question of acceptable Risk of ruin is a balance between our appetite for risk or risk-tolerance, bankroll size, personal financial circumstances, financial goals, and I am sure a bunch of other things I am missing. What percentage Risk of Ruin have you played at in the past and how about now? I have found that as my Bank grew, I was more reluctant to increase my betting levels therefore not fully embracing the Kelly Criterion at its fullest but with limitations. And so I ask myself, do I truly understand and appreciate Kelly enough? Personal experiences welcome.
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
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April 25th, 2017 at 1:25:10 AM permalink
Usually like 1% ROR or lower, if I remember correctly. Although I don't play much (blackjack) anymore. For me, it's more based on getting away with it and not burning out my welcome, even if I'm only making $100-200/hour. If/when I travel, my ROR would likely be higher because I'd be playing for higher stakes to make more EV/hour (I'm not going to travel to play BJ for $100/hour). But my ROR is less than whatever it is since I have money coming in from other forms of AP.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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April 25th, 2017 at 8:26:28 AM permalink
I checked 3... Throughout my career since taking the game quite seriously I've played with anywhere from .5% to 2% RoR. Recall though, that I'm not playing professionally as I still have a day job, even though we always put in at least 50-75% of the hours a professional would.

Let's not talk about the first few months I played blackjack... As discussed on the radio show I had a $1k bankroll and a $500 win goal each session spreading $25-$200... Don't really wanna calculate my RoR there ;-).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wino
Wino
Joined: Dec 13, 2014
  • Threads: 45
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April 26th, 2017 at 6:33:43 PM permalink
Nobody is playing closer to half-kelly or higher eh? Kelly is nice in theory.
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
April 26th, 2017 at 9:55:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wino

Nobody is playing closer to half-kelly or higher eh? Kelly is nice in theory.


If I'm not mistaken....

Kelly Criterion is used for maximum bankroll GROWTH. The problem is the high volatility of it. At a TC +4 (~2.5% edge) you should be betting something like 1% of your bankroll (half kelly). Losing 10 max bets in a session is a 10% of your bankroll. Fully kelly would be 20% of your bankroll. Uh, yeah.....I'll pass on that.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
April 27th, 2017 at 2:01:03 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Let's not talk about the first few months I played blackjack... As discussed on the radio show I had a $1k bankroll and a $500 win goal each session spreading $25-$200... Don't really wanna calculate my RoR there ;-).

IMO practically everyone starts out overbetting their bankrolls (10x Kelly). No shame there.

In reality, they may unconsciously be
(1) not be overheating their "implied bankrolls" (e.g. bankroll + ability to replenish from other avenues).
(2) trying a "shoot for the moon" strategy while close to broke, and shifting to a more sound strategy for bankrolls of $50K-100K+

Quote: RS

If I'm not mistaken....

Kelly Criterion is used for maximum bankroll GROWTH. The problem is the high volatility of it. At a TC +4 (~2.5% edge) you should be betting something like 1% of your bankroll (half kelly). Losing 10 max bets in a session is a 10% of your bankroll. Fully kelly would be 20% of your bankroll. Uh, yeah.....I'll pass on that.

Yep. I've heard most pro teams stick to 0.25 Kelly, or 0.50 Kelly.

Big problem of huge early losses...is people don't want to play for 1/2 hourly rate.

One solution is to play at 0.25-0.50 Kelly until you've doubled your bank (or similar target goal), then shift to 0.50-0.75-1.00 Kelly (with a ramp-down on a losing streak).

-----
I like to play "free rolls" on most games: (1) Make a win. (2) Totally play on profits.

Similar to Kelly-bet-shrink, if I lose a significant portion of my profits (say 20%-30%, depends on the size of the profits), I seriously analyze what I'm doing, and decide if I should go conservative (like shifting to 0.12-0.25 Kelly for awhile, splitting plays with other people, taking plays with higher edges, etc...).

Many times, it turns out to be normal variance.

However, sometimes it's a faulty strategy (possibly variance was much higher than first estimated). Hopefully if I had a faulty strategy, I still have 50% of my profits. In the past, I sometimes lost 75-100% of all profits.
Last edited by: mamat on Apr 27, 2017

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