New AP blog
The first post is just an introduction to the concept of advantage play, while upcoming posts range from differentiating dangerous casino heat from simple sweating, saving money on hotel rooms using Priceline Express Deals while actively picking specific hotels, making judgment calls on showing ID in a casino, and a variety of other topics.
The site is APStreet.com. It only has one post right now, but it will be updated daily this weekend, followed by 3x/week updates after that. Check it out and shoot Lee some feedback, if you'd like!
I am just a beginner BJ player of 6 months, and recently had my first experience card-counting. Perhaps the more experienced WoV members will add comments too. Your introduction to the APStreet blog was appealing and promising. However, for me, I thought your initial article left much to be desired. Good luck, anyway!Quote: LonesomeGamblerCheck it out and shoot Lee some feedback, if you'd like!
Anyways I do like where he was going when he said this.
"AP Street is a collection of advantage play-related insight from me, as well as from other professionals I have met in my career. I want to share this insight with the AP community at large because I believe that “bad” APs or new APs with bad habits cost all advantage players money in the long run"
TMI also cost all advantage players money in the long run.
there will be anything most of us don't
already know. If they post a pic of Axel,
that would be something we could use.
We could follow him around with a
notebook.
Feedback is always appreciated, and there's a comment section on each post. To be clear, this is not an article that I wrote—the author is Lee Jensen, who is the owner of the blog. Keep checking back, and I'm sure you'll find plenty of interesting things. I'm a full-time professional player and can vouch for the material that's slated to run in the site this month (I was involved in the editing).Quote: LostWagesI am just a beginner BJ player of 6 months, and recently had my first experience card-counting. Perhaps the more experienced WoV members will add comments too. Your introduction to the APStreet blog was appealing and promising. However, for me, I thought your initial article left much to be desired. Good luck, anyway!
Keep it between us...Quote: AxelWolfAP street sounds like AP heat.
You don't need to tell me! Anyway, I can't speak for Lee, but I know he's very careful about what he does and doesn't talk about. The truly valuable stuff I've seen written for this blog is not of the "here's how you read hole cards" variety.Quote: AxelWolfTMI also cost all advantage players money in the long run.
I've met many long-time, wildly successful APs and am fortunate to call many of them my friends. None of them know everything already, and in fact, that's one of the reasons that they've become so successful.Quote: EvenBobI'll read for awhile but am not hopeful
there will be anything most of us don't
already know. If they post a pic of Axel,
that would be something we could use.
We could follow him around with a
notebook.
Pretty sure you can raise enough money by crowd funding / donation for web hosting cost.
If I had to guess, he got pied handsomely to do that.Quote: supergrassI don't understand why APHeat is merged into a terrible conglomerate/composite website. I find other articles/authors on the new website dubious; it really cheapens the more scholarly written article on APHeat. Even if you only add new article once a year, it is still better stand alone. Like discountgambling.
Pretty sure you can raise enough money by crowd funding / donation for web hosting cost.
Quote:By helping advantage players avoid common pitfalls and improve the subtlety of their play, we make it harder for casinos to pick off plays and identify skilled players. That benefits everyone. It means more money to go around before leaks and loopholes are closed, which means more money for you—and for us.
From their 'mission statement'.
Hmmmm. But casinos can't learn something? It's hard for me to believe that APs welcome any output of information that is so public. But since I am not amongst their ranks I won't try to speak for them.
Quote: AxelWolfIf I had to guess, he got pied handsomely to do that.
And at the end of the day, getting paid for all your hard work is all that matters. People who say they worry about the legacy of their work leave money on the table. If Elliot max cashed in on his work, good for him.
Quote: AxelWolf. I want to share this insight with the AP community at large because I believe that “bad” APs or new APs with bad habits cost all advantage players money in the long run"
TMI also cost all advantage players money in the long run.
I assume bad and new APs cost other APs money by somehow killing plays. I also assume that talking about good opportunities fills up seats and makes the play less profitable. This seems like a catch 22. Are there any reasonable solutions? How do you teach someone to get better without talking about a specific game or technique?
Risking TMI, are plays like hole carding MSS and TCP, or vulturing VP already dead? The strategies are clearly doucmeted and published. Or do people still screw it up for others somehow?
I'll freely admit that I'm new and I'd hate to think my poor play is costing everyone by closing an opportunity. On the other hand, if I get my cheeks in the seat before you, then that's the way the ball bounces, right?
If the problem is something like too many vultures filling too many seats, so all you can find is a single nickels game with a single 2x, it seems like the solution is less blogs, books, and forums not more. On the other hand, I've watched some vultures that are dressed marginally better than a homeless person and noticed that they don't even check $1+ denominations. I would call skipping high denominations poor advantage play. And sure, we are all losing a few bucks at the nickels level, but no one is going to pay a mortgage betting nickels. Right?
I think I only called out well known plays, and didn't mention any locations, so I think I avoided TMI... But from a pragmatic point of view, how do I get better while still being allowed to play and not screw it up for everyone else?
Finally, as I was writing I couldn't help but think that there should be some guidelines established for discussing advantage play, like the wizards ten commandments of gambling. Does that exist anywhere?
Thanks
Yes. I sold APHeat to 888 last August. I offered my site to Zuga ... They didn't bite. I am very happy with the sale.Quote: BozAnd at the end of the day, getting paid for all your hard work is all that matters. People who say they worry about the legacy of their work leave money on the table. If Elliot max cashed in on his work, good for him.
As 4 the blog that is in consideration here, I hope to see some articles on beating automatic and continuous Shuffle machines. There is some big stuff going on that I know very little about.
I'm more interested in the real stuff of which I know nothing.Quote: teliotThere is some big stuff going on that I know very little about.
Quote:casino advantage play is essentially about finding hidden value
There is absolutely nothing hidden about comped drinks, the casinos want everyone to know about them. And it's even debatable about how much value there is in spending $15 in EV to buy a round of drinks. For the more profitable advantage plays, there have been movies made about playing blackjack, the best video poker games often have huge screens screaming over 100%. Casino advantage play is entirely about being able to take away the house advantage and make it a player advantage. Hence the term Advantage Player
Quote: teliotYes. I sold APHeat to 888 last August. I offered my site to Zuga ... They didn't bite. I am very happy with the sale.
As 4 the blog that is in consideration here, I hope to see some articles on beating automatic and continuous Shuffle machines. There is some big stuff going on that I know very little about.
I certainly hope not to see any articles about beating csms or asms,that would clearly fall under TMI.
It's always a shame when the authors and others who dispense "TMI" fail to get rich with it as their player followers. Always something "big" going on, with them, but they just can't see it.Quote: mcallister3200...EJ's site were just too much damn info for anybody including irrational thinking/rash reaction casinos management.
Even though I published a lot on Advantage play and may have burned out a few things before their time, there has never been a better time in the history of casinos to be an advantage player.
I'm an editor on a poetry website, performing as an actor in local community theater, am a volunteer docent for the elephants at the local Zoo, and have a new band. That's plenty to do.
Thanks 😀Quote: mcallister3200Enjoy your retirement Eliot! Glad to hear it;) sounds like plenty of leisurely interests/pursuits to keep active with.
Quote: teliotI had lots of work and was getting big offers internationally. I just decided to retire for no good reason other than I didn't feel like working anymore. I don't need the money. I've met some great people along the way on both sides.
Even though I published a lot on Advantage play and may have burned out a few things before their time, there has never been a better time in the history of casinos to be an advantage player.
I'm an editor on a poetry website, performing as an actor in local community theater, am a volunteer docent for the elephants at the local Zoo, and have a new band. That's plenty to do.
When do you play Vegas? Laughlin?
Most information about gambling will help casino revenues.Quote: DiscreteMaths2I think explaining how to do something in principle is ok or about old games/machines that aren't on any gaming floors anymore. Where I think you get into trouble is when you are essentially writing a tutorial on what exactly to do. Like go to xyz casino, play abc game, bring $1234 bankroll, place $123 on the defg bets and you will make $12.34 an hour. Basically when you take all the effort out and all a person has to do is show up with money. If you look at articles online about stuff like basic strategy for blackjack or house edge for craps and they are given a lot of negative feedback and people saying that its wrong despite being 100% mathematically correct shows having to apply knowledge yourself is just too big a hurdle for the average gambler.
There is huge unmet demand for gambling.
Casino gambling revenues are maybe $160 billion/yr (international) & $71 billion/yr (US, of which about half is Indian gaming). (via Statista)
https://www.statista.com/topics/1053/casinos/
In comparison, NYSE dollar trading volume in ONE DAY averaged $110 billion (over the past 3.5 years).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48780316
The vast majority of wannabe profitable gamblers can not connect the dots between all the information they are given, so as DiscreteMaths2 states, a detailed step-by-step do A-B-C-D-E-F is one of the few types of information which can hurt casinos.
Major gambling problems:
(1) Overbetting bankroll - Knowledge about bankroll size, risk of ruin, "implied bankroll", and ability to adjust these during losing/winning streaks (e.g. money management)
(2) Inability to save money - Affects most people with regular jobs. The desire to "live a little of the good life".
(3) Patience to look for better opportunities - It's really tough to do nothing when there isn't anything good to play.
(4) Camouflage - When making a profit, being too greedy & obvious. Finding someway to look like someone profitable to the casino, or at least "who doesn't cost the casino too much" & may increase casino revenues by (a) making some games more popular (b) keeping tables active to attract other players (c) making the casino look busier during slow times
(5) "Leaks" - Winning on one game, but losing on another game
(6) Inability to compare "hourly rate" & risk between two situations.
(7) Managing expenses
Most gambling information...in contrast... focuses on "how to beat Game X".
A step-by-step discussion of how to handle problems #1-7 could be bad for casino business, and thus for APs.
Piecemeal information is probably ok, because the vast majority of wannabe profitable gamblers just can't connect A-B-C-D-E-F on their own. Just look at the volume of really stupid posts on this WoV discussion board...and you can see why most people just hand casinos their money (unless they get very lucky).
If you find 200 plays/day (all nickels), and your average play has three 2X multipliers, the daily EV = 200 x .75 = $150/day ($55,000/yr).Quote: prozema...but no one is going to pay a mortgage betting nickels. Right?
I think $55,000/yr - expenses...is enough to pay off some mortgages. :-)
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It's not what the size of each play is, it's the total EV/hr you can find.
...and too much of this kind of information in one place can be TMI, because so many people can't connect-the-dots.
I think a little bit here or there is ok. Smart and/or motivated people can extrapolate the info to other situations.
But a comprehensive comparison of 20-100+ situations, connecting the dots, could be bad for business (both for casinos & APs).
For APs to do well, casinos need to be very profitable. As APs, we should do things to increase overall casino revenues (so we can get a tiny cut).
Quote: mamatIf you find 200 plays/day (all nickels), and your average play has three 2X multipliers, the daily EV = 200 x .75 = $150/day ($55,000/yr).
I think $55,000/yr - expenses...is enough to pay off some mortgages. :-)
----
Ok, fair enough but that means you have to find one every 4.6 minutes for 16 working hours a day 365 day a year. BRUTAL!
This sounds like people who complain they can only make $10/day recycling plastic bottles because you have to pick up X bottles/min all day.Quote: prozemaOk, fair enough but that means you have to find one every 4.6 minutes for 16 working hours a day 365 day a year. BRUTAL!
Reality is effective bottle recyclers pick up entire garbage bags loaded by home/apartment dwellers, hotels, businesses, bars ... and hit beaches with massive parties & family gatherings. $100-200+/day.
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One loaded UX machine might have 10-40 plays. Some casinos have 60-80+ UX machines, and if your timing is right, you might check all of them in about 2-3 hrs, picking up a couple multipliers from each machine. [In the old days, it would have been a ridiculous number of plays, $30-50/machine. But competition is much heavier in 2017].
Working 8 hrs/day, it's still possible in some areas to find $150/day of plays (Average $16-20/hr. Much more on weekends, but less on weekdays).
If you are finding less than $12/hr, switch locations (if possible) and/or times. - It's NOT a good location.
If you get lucky, you can arrive at a casino, and still find $400-800 of plays in 2-3 hrs. ...but it's rarer these days.
Just a few days ago, someone found a 10X1 play and got dealt 4 deuces...
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P.S. Vulturing UX is an nine-year-old play (late-2008), and yet many people fail to understand the dynamics (what does a good location look like?)/
This is why a little information is not very dangerous, but step-by-step-by-step instructions may be TMI.
For various reasons, the proportion of people who can connect the dots is VERY LOW.
Romanto-intellectualism? Look, many persons think that they are exceptional, but they are average like every one else. It's a matter of different paths to the same end. With feelings of exceptionality come feelings of inadequacy.Quote: teliotI had lots of work and was getting big offers internationally. I just decided to retire for no good reason other than I didn't feel like working anymore. I don't need the money. I've met some great people along the way on both sides.
Even though I published a lot on Advantage play and may have burned out a few things before their time, there has never been a better time in the history of casinos to be an advantage player.
I'm an editor on a poetry website, performing as an actor in local community theater, am a volunteer docent for the elephants at the local Zoo, and have a new band. That's plenty to do.
Quote: IbeatyouracesHopefully, his blog won't abruptly end like Moo's did.
I thought the exact same thing. It will go
a couple months then will completely
disappear like they all do. Oops, we've
said too much, what the heck were we
thinking.
Quote: EvenBobI thought the exact same thing. It will go
a couple months then will completely
disappear like they all do. Oops, we've
said too much, what the heck were we
thinking.
At least this guy isn't ripping people off. Get a load of the other guys prices.
https://cashcowconsultingblog.wordpress.com/class-schedule/
But there's a difference between explaining the specifics of how to do something, like WHAT the actual play was. For example, saying something like, "This new machine Crazy X Sunflowers has a banking feature.....when there are more than 8 sunflowers in the bank, its +EV" just hurts APs in general. Or "casino X has promotion Y, they have this game and that game. It's worth $Z/hr".
What I imagine this blog is about is more of the "how not to burn out plays" and technical type stuff. Grosjean's blog has a few excellent entries on this kinda stuff. One is on handing off a seat and another is what to do if you suspect your card is toast. You don't wanna burn a play because some idiot offered a ploppy $2k to take her seat on a packed table and boss/dealer/players overhead that. What kinda stuff you should or shouldn't do when you spot another AP in a casino especially on the same play you're on.
Quote: IbeatyouracesAt least this guy isn't ripping people off. Get a load of the other guys prices.
https://cashcowconsultingblog.wordpress.com/class-schedule/
"Getting Away With It. April 28-29. Columbus, Ohio. $2999."
Does that refer to them getting away with
these prices?
"Secrets of the Temple II. September 15-17, Las Vegas, NV. $19,999. Alumni only."
$20K? That better include a week of drugs,
penthouse hotel room and new girls every
night.
Quote: mamatIf you find 200 plays/day (all nickels), and your average play has three 2X multipliers, the daily EV = 200 x .75 = $150/day ($55,000/yr).
I think $55,000/yr - expenses...is enough to pay off some mortgages. :-)
With no benefits, no time off for vacation and working 7 days a week to go along with other expenses?
I'll pass.
ZCore13
Quote: IbeatyouracesGet a load of the other guys prices.
Wow! Only $20K for the "Secrets of the Temple" class. Where do I sign up? Oh, drat! It's only for "Alumni," so I guess that leaves me out.
I'm not saying the money is good or anyone should do this, but the fact that you can take a vacation anytime you want without giving notice or asking anyone.... certainly is a plus. They never have to set an alarm clock, they never have to be on time("It's 1 pm?" "Oh FK it, I'm going back to bed until whenever") they never have to deal with anyone they wish not too, no one tells them when they can eat or what to do.Quote: Zcore13With no benefits, no time off for vacation and working 7 days a week to go along with other expenses?
I'll pass.
ZCore13
You will also find that the people who do stuff like this really enjoy doing it. It's more like a hobby that makes you money. Some even consider it a mini treasure hunt. They don't watch the clock hoping their shift will end (i'ts more like where did the time go?) They don't dread Mondays.
As they check the machine and then see that next hand multiplier, they get a short quick boost of happiness/ adrenaline each time. When they hit something the same thing happens. If they don't hit anything they don't usually care because they know they had value. They just add the big misses to their gambling war stories( "I found a dealt FH 12x multiplier on a $1 10 play and blanked it" )
Some people would gladly give up a significant amount of money per year if it meant really enjoying what they are doing and having freedom.
It's especially good for someone who's got a nice little nest egg saved up. They don't care if they blanked on all the multipliers that day, they don't have to worry how manny hours they put.
For what it's worth, Lee is one of the most active APs I know, and you'd be surprised how deep the well of topics can go when you're on the road all the time.Quote: mcallister3200Most blogs seem like that, start out strong, at least from a quantity perspective, with ideas that are stored up. Then seem to often die when either aren't accomplishing what they hoped or run out of ideas. Have liked all but the first one so far though
ZCore13
Yes, some people live that life - 365/24/7. Reasons: Some are ex-cons and have problems finding regular jobs. Some don't want a regular job, and don't have the bankroll to retire - it is "the grind"...dreaded, yet needed. A lot of these people would like to "get out of the life".Quote: Zcore13With no benefits, no time off for vacation and working 7 days a week to go along with other expenses?
I'll pass.
----
However, some do it for fun - part-time, maybe a few weekends or evenings here and there.
One guy has a six-figure job (60 hrs/wk), and stops by to play when he has time (about 1,000 hrs/yr).
Gambling provides a supplemental high 5-figures (6-figures in a good year).
Another person retired in the 1970s (via poker), and does UX for fun (almost no other games). Very low 5-figures each year.
He likes to have 200-300 day winning streaks, so doesn't like more volatile games.
His money is not invested in the stock market, but in fixed income, because he doesn't want the risk.
No poker. No blackjack.
----
P.S. Benefits are room, board, shows, weird gifts like kitchen stuff. No medical, unemployment, or disability.
Vulturing UX is the gambling equivalent of "picking up recycling cans/bottles", or like driving around "picking up Free Play".Quote: AxelWolfAs they check the machine and then see that next hand multiplier, they get a short quick boost of happiness/ adrenaline each time. When they hit something the same thing happens. If they don't hit anything they don't usually care because they know they had value. They just add the big misses to their gambling war stories( "I found a dealt FH 12x multiplier on a $1 10 play and blanked it" )
Vast majority of gamblers will find it BORING.
Even if you find hundreds of plays a day, and look 7 days a week...
$100 only happens once a week.
$200 maybe twice a month.
$500 a few times a year
$1,000+ once a year
$2,000+ once every two years
...unless your area has a lot of $1-2-5-10 plays.
If you find 100 plays/day, you will only hit about 4-5 royals/year, and they will mostly be on nickels.
It is a very solid $15-20/hr strategy in some locations.
...but if you want to hit jackpots ($1,200) every day, or have days where you win $20K-100K, it's the wrong game to play.
It's the deepest math you will find, leading up to the super and sur- real numbers. But, if you have to prove something to the world, or thus prove something by not proving it, then you're not "there", which is what you'll know when you see it.Quote: LonesomeGambler... you'd be surprised how deep the well of topics can go when you're on the road all the time.
Quote: Zcore13I'll give it 6 months before he's tired of blogging.
ZCore13
Tired, or, like I said, pressure from the
outside that he talks too much. You
run out of topics and start giving away
real secrets and that's when it ends.
It goes away like it was never here.
Quote: mamatVulturing UX is the gambling equivalent of "picking up recycling cans/bottles", or like driving around "picking up Free Play".
Vast majority of gamblers will find it BORING.
One of the first jobs I ever had was in a liquor store. Massachusetts was very stingy with their liquor licenses, so only a few in each town. And the town I grew up in had 30,000 local residents and 20,000 college students. There were people collecting bottles full time making $50 per day and plenty of others doing it sparingly making $50 per week. Tax free in the 90s, that wasn't great, but a decent opportunity available to anyone willing to work.
If that's equivalent to Ultimate X, then it is definitely a great opportunity, because if you can earn that at one casino game, you can add other video poker, slots, blackjack and sports, and earn even more.
I'll add something to it: just because someone is betting big, they don't have to act like a high roller to avoid suspicion. Another way is to just look like an addict. Spending so much time bottom feeding in Las Vegas casinos, I've hung out with than a few guys who earn less than $30,000 per year and still manage to lose more than half amount at the casinos. They generally have a sense of humor that helps them survive, but they're not necessarily the big talkers, drinkers, or tippers. Think of the people losing their rent check as they escape into the mindlessness of a slot machine. It's rarer to see at the tables, but it does happen, they often do seem disinterested, like they know the outcome is inevitable, but they're just trying to fight off their withdrawal symptoms.
It can be related to the other article "Is it Heat, or is it Sweat?" At the lung cancer factories, it is often drool over catching a whale. That can sometimes be used for an advantage
I can't believe people somewhere are still talking about this sort of garbage as some way that they are the chosen ones. Look, casinos look at what you win or lose, nothing else.Quote: TomGGood article today "Don't Look Like an AP."
I'll add something to it: just because someone is betting big, they don't have to act like a high roller to avoid suspicion. Another way is to just look like an addict. Spending so much time bottom feeding in Las Vegas casinos, I've hung out with than a few guys who earn less than $30,000 per year and still manage to lose more than half amount at the casinos. They generally have a sense of humor that helps them survive, but they're not necessarily the big talkers, drinkers, or tippers. Think of the people losing their rent check as they escape into the mindlessness of a slot machine. It's rarer to see at the tables, but it does happen, they often do seem disinterested, like they know the outcome is inevitable, but they're just trying to fight off their withdrawal symptoms.
It can be related to the other article "Is it Heat, or is it Sweat?" At the lung cancer factories, it is often drool over catching a whale. That can sometimes be used for an advantage
