How can I get peace of mind?

I dont want to beat a dead horse, but how can i get some peace of mind once and for all that certain casinos dont cheat? There has to be something i can do so i can just focus on playing rather than having my mind wander everytime i hit a big loss at the stores i struggle at, which are only 2, but really only 1. Im not too far off from EV after close to 800 hours and over 36k. But im now at 228 hours at Sands and am back in the negative down $500. Even worse ive put over 100 hours at Harrahs and im down close to 19k. NINETEEN THOUSAND. To be down 19k after over 100 hours at the same store with absolutely great rules and great pen only playing positive counts 90% of the time betting only 2x50-2x250 along with the coincidence that ever since they went to 6 decks i havent won ONE session, raises some serious red flags. They have to have the gaming commission in their pocket or something is going on. As for Sands, i dont even know what to say. Close to 250 hours and in the negative with also great rules and a HE also under .30. Sands is number 1 in table revenue in the state by a WIDE margin, which raises even more red flags.

Surely there has to be a way to my mind at ease and prove that they're not cheating so i can just play. It's not so much the losses that frustrate me, but the fact of not knowing whether or not it's a fair game from my losses clumping together at the same stores. I killed Mohegan Sun the other day for +4700 in 6 hours only to stop by sands on the way back and give back -3k in 4 hours. Im almost 100% sure that if i went to another store and played those same exact 4 hours there's no way in hell i would've lost 3k. My biggest losses only come at Sands and Harrahs. Im a net winner everywhere else and up until last night I wouldve been a net winner at every store except only Harrahs. Yes im only down 500 at Sands, but what raises red flags is the amount of hours i logged there and still down.

Is there a way i can find a way to see if all the cards are in the 6 decks and not an altered stack? The cards come pre shuffled and they never show the cards face up and when they do after being persistent enough that it's in the regulations they then proceed to flip over only 1 deck for 5 seconds and with it being pre shuffled, there's no way for me to actually see whether it's a short or stacked pack.

Ideas?

why do you want so much attention?

Counting cards does NOT guarantee you'll win....even lifetime.

In all seriousness, card counting does not seem to be for you.

You probably already know the answer to your question. But I guess I'll say it anyway.

First of all, is it theoretically possible for the casino to be stacking the deck? Yes. If you really want peace of mind why not trying to just sit behind a table and keep track of a certain rank of cards and their suit, like the 5 of hearts, if you see more than 6 of them in a shoe... you will have your answer. Albeit, you throw out logic and assume that a casino would risk their reputation and gaming license over slightly altering an already low-edge game (of which they make very little as compared to their overall bottom line). Roughly 80% of casino revenue is through slots.

The most probable answer? Variance.

Give us more info like Rules, number of hands so we can mathematically model it and prove to you that these results you have aren't that abnormal.

Weed might help

Harrahs = S17, DAS, DOA(double on any card), RSA, LS 1 deck cut off from 6 decks.

Sands S17, DAS, DOA, LS about 75-80% penetration on 6 and 8 deckers

Not sure if you can split hands to 3 or 4 times. I know SugarHouse and Parx is split to a total of 3 hands, I'm sure harrahs is the same. Sands might be split to 4 hands.

They don't cheat. Jesus. You really have to be smarter then that.

Quote: ZenKinG

I dont want to beat a dead horse, but how can i get some peace of mind once and for all that certain casinos dont cheat? . . .
Ideas?

Psychotherapy? Hypnosis? Jack Daniels?
Or just avoid those casinos where your variance has been negative (pointless, but whatever makes you feel better )

I did some writing just to jog my mind. Edit.

Adding low cards to a shoe wouldn't make sense to cheat -- as there'd be damned proof if someone videotaped a shoe where seven 5 of clubs came out. Instead, it'd make much more sense to short the shoe of aces/faces/tens. So if you wanna go that route, I'd suggest keeping track of each card rank (ignore suit first). After a while if it's true they're shorting the deck, then just focus on whichever card is coming out too frequently. But even then, it'd take a lot of time and effort to do this. And why's it matter, aren't you coming out to LV soon anyway? Your best bet might be to take a quick break from BJ for a week or so before you make the big move.

Do the math or use CVCX to figure out how many SDs you're up or down in each casino separately, then again for all of your play. See how likely or unlikely those results are.


I somewhat remember recently you saying you were down like 1 or 1.5 SDs.

Also, how do you know you're playing accurately and correctly? Unless you have another AP test you out in a live setting, IMO, you won't know. Playing on the kitchen table or on software can maybe tell you how likely you are playing accurately in the casino......but there are lots of things in casinos going on and you might not even realize something normal is distracting you. Could be as simple as the fronts of the cards at one store have small pips and ranks in corner while the other store doesn't, and for whatever reason that throws you off without you realizing it. Or one casino flips over the hole card one way than the other, such that you're more likely to accidentally double count the up card if it's a 4-6, or something like that.

Playing 100plus hours hours in a store, claiming to be down over 19K and not being certain of its rules makes me wonder how many other holes are in his game.

Quote: billryan

Playing 100plus hours hours in a store, claiming to be down over 19K and not being certain of its rules makes me wonder how many other holes are in his game.

If you're talking about the splitting to 3 or 4 hands....in his defense, the difference between splitting to 3 or 4 hands is negligible and rarely happens [getting the cards to be able to split to a 4'th hand]. It's not something that has some substantial meaning, happens frequently, or changes strategy -- like DAS vs noDAS or H17 vs S17.



ZenKing -- it seems like you're seeking closure, in a sense, about whether casinos cheat or not. You're never gonna get that. You're never going to be able to prove they do cheat nor are you going to be able to prove they don't cheat, unless you spend a considerable amount of time investigating it, in which case, you likely won't be able to find absolute proof they cheat or not, but a strong confidence one way or the other at the most. Hell, even if a shoe had an extra or missing card in it, that alone wouldn't be damning proof. Even honest casinos make mistakes on accidents sometimes.


But why am I wasting my breath? You already made up your mind.

One test that you can do is determine the EV of your betting - that must be hard to do when you vary your bet size, but people talk about doing it.

You can then compare your results at the point at which your EV should be equal to one standard deviation of randomly expected standard deviation - as if you were not betting based on advantage. If you aren't at least close to even, you have to wonder if something is wrong; this is not proof though. But you can also question your own sanity if you think you are getting killed but your EV is far less than one SD.

I've heard of this kind of thinking with others - it often matches my own. my 2 cents.

You thinking the casinos cheat might be the best thing that ever happened to you. Based on all of your posts it seems you do not have what it takes to succeed in card counting. Try poker instead. Although if you don't win at it you will probably suspect cheating is going on.

Still going on eh ZenKing? Peace of mind is achieved through the 4 noble truths and the 8-fold path. Use Google to its full potential so that one may better use one's potential. :-)

Finally got peace of mind. Went to a store the other day that fanned all the cards face up and the cards came in order. You could clearly see all the cards were there. It almost felt too easy. Of course I cleaned up and made a killing. Respect to that casino for actually showing its patrons the cards and not have them preshuffled either. Other stores clearly have something to hide

Let me know the next time you are at Harrahs. Ill meet up with you.... Id love to see what goes on in your opinion. I will then show you how to win in craps.

Simple. Just think about the BILLIONs of people who go to casinos, win some, lose some, have a good time and leave. The keyword here is BILLIONS! Hope that helps.

Quote: WatchMeWin

I will then show you how to win in craps.

Lies.

Quote: AxelWolf

Lies.

I have a feeling you have had bad experiences on the craps tables... and you're that negative guy cursing every roll....hmmm

Quote: WatchMeWin

I will then show you how to win in craps.

ROFLMAO

Quote: WatchMeWin

I have a feeling you have had bad experiences on the craps tables... and you're that negative guy cursing every roll....hmmm

I don't play craps often. I dabbled in DI before all the hype. I quickly realized it was bunk. The slow motion video was even more conformation.

Played for mail when it was good.

I have played a few times for "fun". A few times with Ahigh and a few times with other's. I have never went and played by myself unless I had a +EV situation. It's rare to find a +EV situation on craps, but they do come up occasionally.

I'm up over all on craps either by playing or having action on a craps play.

Quote: ThomasTrig

Simple. Just think about the BILLIONs of people who go to casinos, win some, lose some, have a good time and leave. The keyword here is BILLIONS! Hope that helps.

Eh, while the idea here is sound that tons and tons of people gamble in casinos, I'd definitely disagree with your figures =P.

My crude estimates:
1) Access to casinos. The vast majority of people don't even have access to a casino. Only casinos in India are a small cluster on the west coast, yet 1.2+ billion people live there and probably 90% of them don't have access to these casinos. Got to imagine several billion of the 7 billion world population don't even have access to those casinos. Let's just half it, for sh*ts and giggles (though I think it's more)... 3.5 billion remaining.

2) Some quick google: ~35-40% of the world population is under 21. Average at 37.5%, and of the remaining 3.5 billion means we lose another 1.3 billion... down to 2.2 billion.

3) Don't gamble. I clearly have been to a casino, and so have several of my friends. So I'd think I'm a weighted case for "the people I know that go to casinos." I think of the people I know I'd estimate that about 50% don't go to a casino. Which also online I found a metric that said 50% of the population does gamble. So of our remaining 2.2 billion we're cut down by people that actually gamble to 1.1 billion.

I'm still pretty shocked it's in the billions. Though, this is "world wide" crude estimations so perhaps only like 150 million comes from the US, etc, etc. I'd assume if I gave it some more thought there are some other 'major' reasons for people not to gamble. But a topic can only hold my attention for so long...

Quote: OnceDear

ROFLMAO

: )