What kind of action can you get away with at major strip casinos?

Would a top bet of 2x300 attract a lot of attention if you keep all your sessions to one hour max? I will most likely mix up playing styles but what if I use the 1 hour to purely back count and then move on to another store?

Now I have read a huge amount of information on how KJ does it, i read several books such as Wong's book 'Blackjack Secrets' which has some good longevity infotmation, as well as Vinny DeCarlo's book on all the major casinos and how they bring heat in different ways. My question is not about any of that, I'm already aware of the heat aspect. I just want to know, if possible, a general idea if a 2x300 top bet will attract enough heat to get me flyered/backed off within a year if I keep sessions short to 1 hour or possibly even 45 minutes at a time. By the way, when I say 'sessions' I'm not talking about a session in a particular pit at one store I'm talking about one actual session and I'm on to another store.

Right now I have 12 casinos in my future rotation that I compiled from CBJN that have the best games in town. The plan is to play 6 days a week and mix up morning, afternoon, and graveyard shifts to not have one shift at a particular store see me more than one hour once a week. Of course, 6 days a week is a bit aggressive, but that's the plan for now and I also have some other tricks up my sleeve that should buy me a lot more time, and no I won't be using any cover plays. I'm not a fan of cover plays and I believe when you get made as an AP, its all about your minimum to max bet exposure as well as your back counting exposure.

I'm doing really well right now locally and it looks like I won't have any excuse anymore not to move out there. I'm going there very soon and I would post the date, but I rather not have the rare possibility of a casino critter relaying info to major strip stores to keep an eye out for me. Yes 2x300 is still small fish but it is an amount that does start attracting attention at most places, especially if you start winning a lot and which is why I started this thread in the first place.

Thanks in advance.

About $3.50

Insufficient information has been given for anyone to properly answer.
The Wover's are gonna ask for min bet & betting ramp etc..

Well, I said I would most likely be back counting and when you back count you usually don't spread much so I thought just giving out my top bet would be sufficient, but I guess I should've gave a bit more details on my wong out points. I will be wonging out aggressively at 0 when purely back counting(in at +1 out at 0; YES i have an edge at +1) and when playing off the top I'll be wonging out aggressively at -1. Max bet for both play styles will be max bet at +5.

My pure Wong spread will be something like 2x50-2x300 and my off the top spread will vary from 2 hands off the top to 1 hand off the top(maybe even use grifters gambit) as i know spreading to two hands in + counts is not well tolerated in vegas. The off the top spread will be something around 1x25 - 2x300 or 2x25 - 1x450 for example and wonging out aggressively at -1. The 2x25 off the top will vary with 1 or 2 hands throughout, as my biggest thing is to just start the shoe with 2 hands to confuse the pit a bit maybe even start with 2x50 or 3x25 and quickly retrace to 2x25 or even 1x25

You aren't back counting at most of these casinos, you just aren't going to be able to. There's like 1 3:2 table per pit in most of them, or only the usually dead other than weekend swing higher limit pits are only 3:2.

Quote: rainman

Insufficient information has been given for anyone to properly answer.

Right.

Quote: rainman

The Wover's are gonna ask for min bet & betting ramp etc..

Wrong.

So basically each store is going to be independent from every other store. You might be able to have a top bet of $1k at Casino A, but only a top bet of $300 at Casino B. You'll have to learn the Tolerance Levels of each casino in your rotation for each of their shift/bosses/etc. This is going to take a little bit of time and learning (without a seasoned vegas vet to give you the ins and outs of each casino).

So what you should be doing now is finding a top bet that will make you decent EV, but you're "pretty sure" is under the radar. Then, when you're in the field you can test these different shops by pressing up a little bit every now and then. See which ones knee jerk react, see which ones simply take notice, and see which ones don't even blink and eye. These are then the casinos that you can't go above X, probably need to stick to just above X, and can go way above X (respectively).

KJ posted before that at some stores he was only able to go to mid blacks (250-300) while at others he could go much higher. I believe he also said that there was something like the "purple rule" that pretty much he avoided betting purple chips (500 or more) at most all stores. I'd take this as a good guideline to starting out.

I think your 2x300 is a decent starting point... though Vegas sometimes casinos definitely do care if you spread horizontally. Start with 2x250 or 2x300 and see what kind of heat you get, then tailor your spread per casino/shift/pit pending what heat/reactions you get... and regardless of 1 hour or not, you should leave after exposing your max bet. Then they'll never see you "reset."

Also, I wouldn't worry about CBJN and "the best games" exactly. Sure, try to play better games, but the "best" games are going to be games with deep PEN and little or no Heat... Who cares if it's S17 or H17. I've said it 1,000,000 times... Vegas is QUANTITY, not QUALITY. Find the tolerant games and you'll find your EV.

A good team can spread $500 to $10,000 for New Year's, Super Bowl, and Mayweather fights. They're game will be discovered, but not until after they've made their bets and flown away.

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A $600 max bet should be fine most places, most of the time. But what happens when you do get backed off? If you keep recycling through the same 12 places every two weeks it will happen eventually. Expand the places you go to and your style of play as wide as you can and you can survive earning $100 to $200 per day indefinitely.

What TomG said.

You can get away with 2x300 on the strip, but don't expect to be able to do that day in and day out.

ZK, everything you plan/ask smells of that you're making all these plans without ever having been to vegas, or at least very little. Why not try to answer some of these questions yourself? You have more than enough BR to book an inexpensive flight, get a reasonably inexpensive hotel for a week or so, and use the time to gauge if you think you can pull off your plan after scouting these places with your own eyes on different shifts etc.

Quote: mcallister3200

ZK, everything you plan/ask smells of that you're making all these plans without ever having been to vegas, or at least very little. Why not try to answer some of these questions yourself? You have more than enough BR to book an inexpensive flight, get a reasonably inexpensive hotel for a week or so, and use the time to gauge if you think you can pull off your plan after scouting these places with your own eyes on different shifts etc.

I've been to vegas only twice. My most recent visit was last March in 2016. CBJN seems to be somewhat accurate from what i saw there with the only exception being that they must be listing some hi limit games because there definitely weren't that many tables with 3:2. If they are indeed hi limit games, i find it strange that CBJN says those games let you jump in mid shoe as i dont see a 'nmse' note on it. Here on the east coast where i play, all hi-limit games are 'nmse'. I probably wont do much backcounting anyway in a hi limit room as that brings way too much attention.

Quote: RS

What TomG said.

You can get away with 2x300 on the strip, but don't expect to be able to do that day in and day out.

Well if im not playing at least 5 days a week, the EV will be worthless. I might have to add at least 6 more stores to my rotation then.

Quote: TomG

A good team can spread $500 to $10,000 for New Year's, Super Bowl, and Mayweather fights. They're game will be discovered, but not until after they've made their bets and flown away.

-----

A $600 max bet should be fine most places, most of the time. But what happens when you do get backed off? If you keep recycling through the same 12 places every two weeks it will happen eventually. Expand the places you go to and your style of play as wide as you can and you can survive earning $100 to $200 per day indefinitely.

Yea i might have to add at least 6 more stores. The problem is there aren't 6 more 'playable' stores in vegas. That means i would have to bite the bullet and play marginal games which im not at all used to. Im a big fan of surrender and that's all im used to at where i play. Would be a big change standing on stiffs against 10's, etc. Might have to lower my bets even more to withstand that type of variance once i play no surrender games.

"The plan is to play 6 days a week and mix up morning, afternoon, and graveyard shifts to not have one shift at a particular store see me more than one hour once a week. "

It's not only who you see you have to worry about. I suspect the security in the sky would work different shifts than the pit does, so you could be playing in front of the same person more than you know. If I ran a casino, I certainly wouldn't want my game managers and game protection crews always working together.

double post.

Quote: billryan

"The plan is to play 6 days a week and mix up morning, afternoon, and graveyard shifts to not have one shift at a particular store see me more than one hour once a week. "

It's not only who you see you have to worry about. I suspect the security in the sky would work different shifts than the pit does, so you could be playing in front of the same person more than you know. If I ran a casino, I certainly wouldn't want my game managers and game protection crews always working together.

Well surveillance and pit crews more often that not work the same shifts and if anything it's staggered by 1 hour or so. If pits work 4am-12pm for example, surveillance might be 5am-1pm or 3am-11pm. What could happen though is probably what you're trying to say and it's that several faces might switch up shifts from time to time and cause them to watch me more than once a week by 'accident'. I guess i should put a little more work into this, i still got a month though.

I have a feeling this is gonna be much harder than i originally thought. Im also aware of the NYNY bridge to MGM that one should never cross because of the good camera footage there? Im also thinking i probably should just play rated now that im in OSN. By saying i dont have a card etc. it might just raise red flags and cause them to look me up eventually and once they look me up, im toast since im already in the database.

So many little things. It's just unreal how casinos can get away with throwing you out and not letting you play. You simply can't offer a game to the 'public' and then pick and choose who plays it, which right off the bat lends off a bit of 'discrimination'. There's also a lot of hypocrisy in all of this. They want to use the public place argument to photograph you and share your info, but when it comes to letting you play, all of a sudden it becomes a 'private' argument and they can do what they want? Before my career is over im gonna get my revenge on these casino scum and you can bet the house on that. I hope they learned from Atlantic City because all these casinos starting with PA are gonna become the 2nd coming of that once great beach town. Vegas will be the hardest as the whole city is corrupt and relies on gambling for tax revenue etc and the courts wont want to hear the lawsuit.

Quote: ZenKinG

Well surveillance and pit crews more often that not work the same shifts and if anything it's staggered by 1 hour or so.

Im also thinking i probably should just play rated now that im in osn.

Many surveillance shifts are staggered by 3 to 4 hours from the pits hours.

Playing under your real name now that you're in Osn is a mistake in my opinion.

It might be helpful to have some sort of chart or spreadsheet that helps you easily keep track of when you've played where. I know that for me it's helpful, and can be a good way to jot down notes about either the casino, the dealers or impressions of heat while you were there.

Quote: ZenKinG

I have a feeling this is gonna be much harder than i originally thought.

I think that's one of the first things I said to you about this whole thing.

Get a plane ticket, fly out here with some bankroll. Rent a car. Stay for 2 weeks. Stay at El Cortez or some other dump. 14 days will be enough time to get a better gauge on LV and what needs to be done and how easy/tough it is. If you figure out it's tougher than you expected or you don't think you can make it work, you'll have saved a bunch of money by not driving out here, signing a lease or w/e on an apartment, etc. etc. as well as not being stuck in a lease if you quickly figure out LV isn't for you.

I'd estimate it'd cost $2k or less. With a bit of hunting and picking around, you could get the expenses down to $1000 or perhaps lower. $300 for airfare. 14x$70 for hotel room. $450 for a car. That's $1730. Throw in some gas and food.

The drive from Philadelphia to Las Vegas alone is about 2,500 miles, which is about $1,250 expense (at $0.50/mile).

Quote: ZenKinG

I'm doing really well right now locally and it looks like I won't have any excuse anymore not to move out there.

Side bet?

Quote: ZenKinG

So many little things. It's just unreal how casinos can get away with throwing you out and not letting you play. You simply can't offer a game to the 'public' and then pick and choose who plays it, which right off the bat lends off a bit of 'discrimination'. There's also a lot of hypocrisy in all of this. They want to use the public place argument to photograph you and share your info, but when it comes to letting you play, all of a sudden it becomes a 'private' argument and they can do what they want? Before my career is over im gonna get my revenge on these casino scum and you can bet the house on that. I hope they learned from Atlantic City because all these casinos starting with PA are gonna become the 2nd coming of that once great beach town. Vegas will be the hardest as the whole city is corrupt and relies on gambling for tax revenue etc and the courts wont want to hear the lawsuit.

You have no skin in the game and are blustering / threatening to sue the Las Vegas casinos for what, exactly?

Discrimination?

Invasion of privacy?

Your zeal would seem to exceed your knowledge of how things really work.

Talk to the number one Las Vegas blackjack-case attorney, Bob Nersesian, about this before spouting off publicly about your grand plan for retribution.

BTW, Las Vegas is no more corrupt than AC; probably a toss up, historically.

Quote: RS

I think that's one of the first things I said to you about this whole thing.

Get a plane ticket, fly out here with some bankroll. Rent a car. Stay for 2 weeks. Stay at El Cortez or some other dump. 14 days will be enough time to get a better gauge on LV and what needs to be done and how easy/tough it is. If you figure out it's tougher than you expected or you don't think you can make it work, you'll have saved a bunch of money by not driving out here, signing a lease or w/e on an apartment, etc. etc. as well as not being stuck in a lease if you quickly figure out LV isn't for you.

I'd estimate it'd cost $2k or less. With a bit of hunting and picking around, you could get the expenses down to $1000 or perhaps lower. $300 for airfare. 14x$70 for hotel room. $450 for a car. That's $1730. Throw in some gas and food.

The drive from Philadelphia to Las Vegas alone is about 2,500 miles, which is about $1,250 expense (at $0.50/mile).

Well regarding the lease thing, i was gonna stay at a weekly/monthly with no credit check or lease needed so that would give me flexibility in case vegas didnt work out as planned and i get flyered all over within a month or two. Secondly, you're way over-estimating the gas expense unless you're factoring in car depreciation. The gas expense according to http://beta.costtodrive.com is 290.57. And my manual calculations are a little bit over 300 give or take depending on the average gas price as i travel throughout the country. So it's going to be an average of 300 for gas. The biggest thing would be the car depreciation as a 2500 mile drive will take some future value off the car, but i still believe it's better than getting a plane ticket(even though it's dirt cheap in May at about $115 to go there or 260 round trip) and then about $900 to ship my car there.

0.50 or maybe it's 0.55 cents per mile is the standard IRS mileage deduction. This includes gas wear and tear ,depreciation .
Of course it's all irrelevant IF u never go.

Quote: Hunterhill

0.50 or maybe it's 0.55 cents per mile is the standard IRS mileage deduction. This includes gas wear and tear ,depreciation .
Of course it's all irrelevant IF u never go.

That's also considering that you will try to sell the car in the future. What if i never sell my car and ride it till it dies? Depreciation doesnt really matter anymore. I guess it could because once it dies i receive $0 and even though i rode it for a long time i end up losing money by not potentially selling it for 8-9k. I guess the real question that comes to mind is can i get more than 8-9k worth of value if i ride it till it dies. Then it's +EV. lol

That's where I'm at right now,I have 300k on my car,so it's basically worthless to sell,but it still runs well with no problems.
My new goal is to hit 400k.
Small thread hijack sorry.

I used to count cards, back when I was a poor college student.

A hugely overlooked problem, when it comes to casino jumping, is the time lost going from casino to casino. Time is money.

The problem going from casino to casino is that it takes like 15 minutes to go from one casino to another. You walk to your car, then you have to fight Vegas traffic. Then you have to park your car and walk to the pit. It's a good 15 minutes, and with bad traffic, 30 minutes.

Walking is a pain in the butt and sometimes no faster than driving because the casino properties are so vast.

Eventually, I got backed off at most of the casinos that I played at because I would always try to stretch my time at each casino.

For the record: I'm an old dude. I used to count at the Stardust and New Frontier.

People who fly under the radar will last a lot longer than those that don't.

I don't get the sense that the OP is a person who flies under the radar.

Quote: klimate10

I used to count cards, back when I was a poor college student.

A hugely overlooked problem, when it comes to casino jumping, is the time lost going from casino to casino. Time is money.

The problem going from casino to casino is that it takes like 15 minutes to go from one casino to another. You walk to your car, then you have to fight Vegas traffic. Then you have to park your car and walk to the pit. It's a good 15 minutes, and with bad traffic, 30 minutes.

Walking is a pain in the butt and sometimes no faster than driving because the casino properties are so vast.

Eventually, I got backed off at most of the casinos that I played at because I would always try to stretch my time at each casino.

For the record: I'm an old dude. I used to count at the Stardust and New Frontier.

Year?

Quote: ZenKinG

You probably already answered this question, but I will ask it again since it seems like you didn't give a logical or legit answer. I think even the most accomplished counters and AP's would agree what im about ti suggest is a good idea.

It is a good idea, I will never understand why you don't do it.....

Take a VACATION ( you seemed to miss the vacatio part the first time I asked) for 2, 3, 4 weeks.
Get a cheap flight to Vegas. Stay at a weekly for 2, 3, 4 weeks(There are 2 or 3 on Las Vegas BLVD). Rent a car if needed. Act as of you were here living and go do your thing and see how it goes.

I think making a permanent move to Vegas without testing the waters is a bad idea, especially since you are...well....YOU. I think everyone here would agree you are a special person.

Quote: AxelWolf

You probably already answered this question, but I will ask it again since it seems like you didn't give a logical or legit answer. I think even the most accomplished counters and AP's would agree what im about ti suggest is a good idea.

It is a good idea, I will never understand why you don't do it.....

Take a VACATION ( you seemed to miss the vacatio part the first time I asked) for 2, 3, 4 weeks.
Get a cheap flight to Vegas. Stay at a weekly for 2, 3, 4 weeks(There are 2 or 3 on Las Vegas BLVD). Rent a car if needed. Act as of you were here living and go do your thing and see how it goes.

I think making a permanent move to Vegas without testing the waters is a bad idea, especially since you are...well....YOU. I think everyone here would agree you are a special person.

Im going to be staying at a weekly/monthly anyway. So the only thing about saying im going there permanently is me telling my parents and friends that im moving there. Other than that, there's nothing permanent about it since there's no lease attached and it gives me a bit of flexibility. Maybe im better off telling everyone im gonna just test it out in case it doesnt work out and then not have people thinking i failed miserably lol.

I'm sure this was already said, but you can easily find places to take two hands of $300 in blackjack. However, it will get watched pretty carefully. The lower end the casino, the more they will sweat the action. Still, a good counter can get away with it, as long as he isn't too aggressive and puts on a decent act.

Long before I worked at the Venetian, in my more financially endowed days, I was a black chip bettor in blackjack doing a 1-3 spread in the high limit room. I know the EV wasn't great with such a low spread but I was giving them the play to justify free tournament entries. I felt no heat at all. Often other players came along betting much more.

That flexibility sounds nice. Definitely important for a counter to be flexible; make sure you're as flexible in your casino choice and times you play there as well. In my fairly limited experience what Ice seen is that I've been limited in play not due to large amounts of action but too many sessions in too short a time frame. Longevity > big takes in the short term.

Quote: Wizard

I'm sure this was already said, but you can easily find places to take two hands of $300 in blackjack. However, it will get watched pretty carefully. The lower end the casino, the more they will sweat the action. Still, a good counter can get away with it, as long as he isn't too aggressive and puts on a decent act.

Long before I worked at the Venetian, in my more financially endowed days, I was a black chip bettor in blackjack doing a 1-3 spread in the high limit room. I know the EV wasn't great with such a low spread but I was giving them the play to justify free tournament entries. I felt no heat at all. Often other players came along betting much more.

Shoe game or pitch? Maybe your spread was the reason why you got no heat since they know you weren't beating them for much regardless of bet size.