Advice Needed on Count Increases and Count Drops

As the title states, I'm looking for some advice.

Game Rules:

6D or 8D (rules are the same)
3:2 payout
Shoes (no shuffler machines)
Penetration 70-90% (depending on the dealer)
Min Bet is $15-$25 on 8D
Min Bet is $50 - $200 on 6D
Dealer stands on Soft 17
Early Surrender
Even Money accepted
Split to only 2 hands on Aces, one card only after split
Split to only 3 hands max, double allowed

Blackjack is the game I've been shifting a majority of my casino time towards. Most of you know I am normally a craps player but I've been practicing blackjack now for approx. 9 months. I've mastered Hi-LO and KO counting. I know up to 4 deviations.

Here's a scenario that happened to me on two different shoes this weekend (one was an 8D and the other was a 6D).

I started with small bets on the 8D first. The RC was up to 22 and the TC was at 5. I started increasing and working on deviations (standing on 12s against 2/3 since the count was high). The RC quickly went up to 29 and TC at 6. I increased a bit more, losing on every hand.

My first question is should I wait on increasing when I see a drop in the count once it peaks? I felt like I was losing because the count was still increasing. If I should wait until the count drops, should I wait a couple of hands to confirm? What is the optimal strategy on handling this type of event.

The same thing happened on the 6D shoe as well. Normally I do well but this weekend everything seemed odd and out of place, almost like all of the high cards were hiding in the back of the shoe behind the yellow card.

I went through both shoes and came out at a loss on both so stopped playing immediately since I knew that A) I'm doing something wrong here, or B) I'm just hitting a bad bit of distribution.

I would appreciate any advice on TC strategy betting. I had thought I was doing fairly well but now I'm losing a bit of confidence.

Hey Joel... while we don't see eye to eye on other things, I have zero problems giving you some card counting advice, so regardless of our lack of friendship, I hope you still take the advice.

For 6D, S17, DAS, DA2, RS3, NRSA: .46%...with Early Surrender to 10 (worth .24%), I'm showing the House Edge of your game is .22%.

I assume this is a European No Hole card style of game? Does the player lose their double downs if the dealer draws a blackjack? This could definitely change the house edge... but for now I'll work on the assumption that you found some pretty great game.

Next, I find it hard to believe you've master 2 counting systems and you only know 4 deviations. I can "claim" to of mastered Hi/Low, and I know about 50 deviations, but that's still a drop in the bucket to some pro's that learn hundreds of deviations. Have you ever been tested or checked out by another competent counter?

Next, what do you mean min bet on 8D is $15-$25? Does that mean there's numerous 8D tables, all with the same rules, and just different min bets? Same question for your 6D. That's what I'm going to assume you mean.

Next, I'd be interested in your spread. Every competent counter on these forums would agree with me that you should have your max bet out preferably before TC +5, but at TC +5 AT THE LATEST. Yet you stated above that at TC +5 you started increasing your bets and at TC +6 you increased some more. IF you in fact found a good game that has a .22% HE, then you'd want to start upping your bet at TC +1, and again ideally have your max out at around TC +4.

1) "should I wait on increasing when I see a drop in the count once it peaks?"
No. We can never know when the count is going to "peak." I've seen a TC +5 do nothing but raise up and up for the last couple decks of a shoe. We don't know the order of the cards that are left, just the concentration of "big cards" to "little cards." If you read my articles you'd know: Just because the count is TC +5 or even hell TC +10 DOES NOT MEAN you're some huge favorite to win the hand... The money in the game is due to:
a) getting paid 150% on your blackjacks, while the dealer does not.
b) getting to double and put more money out in good situations, while the dealer does not.
c) getting to split your pairs in advantageous situations, while the dealer does not.
d) the dealer will bust slightly more often in larger counts.

What you definitely need to learn is just because the count is high does not mean you're going to win more hands. The whole idea here is let's say the TC is +20... Then let's pretend you and the dealer get nothing but blackjacks back and forth every other hand. The dealer is just another hand at the table and is just as likely to get better hands with a high TC as you are. Yes, the dealer will ALSO GET BETTER HANDS in good counts. The idea here is that if you traded blackjacks back and forth for this TC +20 shoe, you'd WIN. You get 150% for your blackjacks, the dealer just gets your regular bet. So if you traded back and forth in this high TC, you'd win. You must understand that again, because the TC is high, that does NOT mean you'll win more hands or that you should expect to win every hand in a high TC.

Quite often if a place has 75% PEN on 6D (for example) the last 1.5 decks could definitely contain a slug of high cards that you never even see come out. This is rare, but then again other times you might think the count is negative and yet nothing but face cards continue to come out (because the little cards are all behind the cut card). It happens and is quite normal.

In my articles I discuss TC betting, what to bet, when to bet it, and a lot of that will come down to your bankroll and what you mathematically can and can't bet (kelly betting). Feel free to read and re-read my 3 articles and ask any questions. While we may not get along, I'll still answer them if you ask.

Lastly, because we don't get along, this is why... You claim to have "mastered" two different counts but you clearly don't even know the I18 deviations (which is a basic essential to counting) and you clearly have a lot to understand about the game. It's okay to say you're not good at something or don't know something... saying you've "mastered" it then proving you don't understand even basics with your follow up is the disconnect that I don't like, and you've done it on numerous topics.

Quote: Romes

Hey Joel... while we don't see eye to eye on other things, I have zero problems giving you some card counting advice, so regardless of our lack of friendship, I hope you still take the advice.

Thank you so much Romes. I was hoping you would be the one to give me advice because I know you are extremely knowledgeable with this game and I consider myself a novice counter with a lot to learn. I will always take the advice of someone that knows more than me. And, I definitely don't think I'm an expert on any gambling topic at all. My specialty is really computers, programming and problem solving. I know I can come across the wrong way a lot of times and I should probably realize that I'm alienating myself with some of my posts. Once a person digs a grave it's hard to climb out of the hole and put the dirt back.

I'll do my best in the future. I can promise that much.

Quote: Romes

For 6D, S17, DAS, DA2, RS3, NRSA: .46%...with Early Surrender to 10 (worth .24%), I'm showing the House Edge of your game is .22%.

I assume this is a European No Hole card style of game? Does the player lose their double downs if the dealer draws a blackjack? This could definitely change the house edge... but for now I'll work on the assumption that you found some pretty great game.

Next, I find it hard to believe you've master 2 counting systems and you only know 4 deviations. I can "claim" to of mastered Hi/Low, and I know about 50 deviations, but that's still a drop in the bucket to some pro's that learn hundreds of deviations. Have you ever been tested or checked out by another competent counter?

I'll correct myself and tone down the wording as well. I simply meant that I can count using either system with fairly good accuracy. If I miss a card I treat that card as 0. If there's a very fast dealer I might miss one or two cards out of an entire shoe. I always sit on the side of the shoe, one or two spots from the end. I only use 4 deviations that I'm currently comfortable with in my play. Again, I still have a lot to learn and grasp.

Quote: Romes

Next, what do you mean min bet on 8D is $15-$25? Does that mean there's numerous 8D tables, all with the same rules, and just different min bets? Same question for your 6D. That's what I'm going to assume you mean.

Next, I'd be interested in your spread. Every competent counter on these forums would agree with me that you should have your max bet out preferably before TC +5, but at TC +5 AT THE LATEST. Yet you stated above that at TC +5 you started increasing your bets and at TC +6 you increased some more. IF you in fact found a good game that has a .22% HE, then you'd want to start upping your bet at TC +1, and again ideally have your max out at around TC +4.

The low end tables are all 8 deck (min $15 or min $25). They all have the same rules. In order to play at a 6 deck, I have to move up to a $50 min. And, again, the rules on the 6 deck tables are the same as 8 deck tables. The only difference is with prop bets. All of their tables have match the dealer play. 8D pays out 3 to 1 on unsuited and 14 to 1 on suited. 6D pays out 4 to 1 on unsuited and 11 to 1 on suited.

I used to not play the match because I know it's a sucker bet. I figured if I played some of the time the house would not consider me a counter because I don't know of any counters that play prop bets. But, I did the math and the average hit is roughly 1 in 7 hands. I have a special way to play in order to reduce the visibility of me counting cards. On Matches I don't play anything until I see that I haven't hit a match 7 times in a row. So, zero is placed on the prop bet until the side count of prop plays hit 7 hands without a match. If I don't hit after 7 hands I put in the bare minimum of 5 and progressively increase every 2 hands by 5 to a max of 25. I cover the play with a match on my normal hand so if I'm at 15 normal play and have 5 on the match, I move up to 20 on the normal hand. I usually do fairly good on the matches using this particular strategy. Once I hit, I repeat the null 7 hand strategy. I find that it keeps the eyes off of me even though it's a little bit more work to count side bets in addition to cards.

The only time I don't use the strategy above is if the TC is 1 or less. I'm limited on venues where I live so I try not to burn bridges. I don't want to get outed down the road. If there's a better way to limit exposure I'm more than happy to do something different. I figured if I was confronted for counting I would say that I'm counting 7 hands without a match before putting a match in play.

Quote: Romes

1) "should I wait on increasing when I see a drop in the count once it peaks?"
No. We can never know when the count is going to "peak." I've seen a TC +5 do nothing but raise up and up for the last couple decks of a shoe. We don't know the order of the cards that are left, just the concentration of "big cards" to "little cards." If you read my articles you'd know: Just because the count is TC +5 or even hell TC +10 DOES NOT MEAN you're some huge favorite to win the hand... The money in the game is due to:
a) getting paid 150% on your blackjacks, while the dealer does not.
b) getting to double and put more money out in good situations, while the dealer does not.
c) getting to split your pairs in advantageous situations, while the dealer does not.
d) the dealer will bust slightly more often in larger counts.

What you definitely need to learn is just because the count is high does not mean you're going to win more hands. The whole idea here is let's say the TC is +20... Then let's pretend you and the dealer get nothing but blackjacks back and forth every other hand. The dealer is just another hand at the table and is just as likely to get better hands with a high TC as you are. Yes, the dealer will ALSO GET BETTER HANDS in good counts. The idea here is that if you traded blackjacks back and forth for this TC +20 shoe, you'd WIN. You get 150% for your blackjacks, the dealer just gets your regular bet. So if you traded back and forth in this high TC, you'd win. You must understand that again, because the TC is high, that does NOT mean you'll win more hands or that you should expect to win every hand in a high TC.

Quite often if a place has 75% PEN on 6D (for example) the last 1.5 decks could definitely contain a slug of high cards that you never even see come out. This is rare, but then again other times you might think the count is negative and yet nothing but face cards continue to come out (because the little cards are all behind the cut card). It happens and is quite normal.

In my articles I discuss TC betting, what to bet, when to bet it, and a lot of that will come down to your bankroll and what you mathematically can and can't bet (kelly betting). Feel free to read and re-read my 3 articles and ask any questions. While we may not get along, I'll still answer them if you ask.

This is very good info and thanks once again. That makes sense to me logically and I follow what you are saying. I have a question on cutting the deck. Is it all completely random or is it more beneficial to place the cut card one deck forward, one deck back, or middle? I only ask because I see dealers replace other dealers very close to the end of the shoe and I'm often left wondering if they know which side of the deck was top heavy with lows or highs. It makes me wonder if they shuffle in a way to make things advantageous for the house. I'm probably just being a bit OCD here but it drives me nuts when a dealer hits a 6 card 21 after someone splits 3 8s against a dealer up card of 5 and ends up with 13, 14, 12 against a TC of 4 or higher.

Quote: Romes

Lastly, because we don't get along, this is why... You claim to have "mastered" two different counts but you clearly don't even know the I18 deviations (which is a basic essential to counting) and you clearly have a lot to understand about the game. It's okay to say you're not good at something or don't know something... saying you've "mastered" it then proving you don't understand even basics with your follow up is the disconnect that I don't like, and you've done it on numerous topics.

I'd like to apologize for the times I say something that is perceived as touting. While in the past I've won big in sequences, I attribute it mainly to luck and variance. Sometimes I'm being sarcastic but I don't throw out a sarcasm tag. When others don't get it at the time of my post, I don't follow-up or explain it.

I'm a simple person that loves humor and I'm downright silly a lot during my day. I do have a very strong memory, and math is one of my stronger subjects. My strongest subject is logic. So, if you hear me say something illogical, it is highly likely I'm being sarcastic or attempting to be humorous.

Thanks so much for this help and for any help you give me in the future.

Quote: JoelDeze

Thank you so much Romes. I was hoping you would be the one to give me advice because I know you are extremely knowledgeable with this game and I consider myself a novice counter with a lot to learn. I will always take the advice of someone that knows more than me. And, I definitely don't think I'm an expert on any gambling topic at all. My specialty is really computers, programming and problem solving. I know I can come across the wrong way a lot of times and I should probably realize that I'm alienating myself with some of my posts. Once a person digs a grave it's hard to climb out of the hole and put the dirt back.

I'll do my best in the future. I can promise that much.

Appreciate your response and again I have no problem sharing advice to those who seek it.

1) I 'really' hope one of your 4 deviations is insurance =)... That's worth HALF of the value of the I18 altogether. At TC +3 with Hi/Low... Take insurance.

2) Fast dealers should be your friend, not your foe. Fast dealers will give us more hands per hour. More hands per hour means more EV per hour. Even if you can count well enough to be in a casino, if I personally would have trained you I wouldn't be letting you play in a casino while still missing cards simply due to a fast dealer. I would suggest going back to some counting drills (see LostWages recent counting drills thread).

3) The side bet is a sucker bet, as you know, and yes there could be some cover in playing it 'occasionally', especially in front of the pit. However, I want you to know the system you have of waiting to bet it doesn't make any sense. It's the gamblers fallacy. It's the same as waiting for 7 blacks to come up in roulette then betting red on the next hand. Since you're not tracking any cards for that side bet, it doesn't matter what happened on the last 7 hands. Just as it doesn't matter in roulette what happened on the last 7 spins. The next spin is still ~18/38 on red/black just as it was on the past 7 spins. I hope you know the House Edge of that bet and your average bet and number of times you play it per hour... because that's going to be "Cover with a Cost" as I call it in my 2nd article. That's going to subtract from your hourly EV, and maybe more than you previously realized (especially if your spread is smaller or concentrated around TC +5 then you might not have a high hourly EV to start with).

4) What is your spread for the average game of BJ you play? Let's say the game above (which you didn't answer if it was ENHC or not and if you lost your doubles if the dealer pulls a BJ). Your spread vs true count and your bankroll will tell a LOT about where you're at in your counting career... and in a non-rude way I can tell you what you need to focus on... because being honest, not trying to be mean, it sounds like you still have a fair amount to learn.

5) On your cut question... Cutting the deck, so far as you know it, is completely random and has nothing to do with how the shoe plays out next round. Whether you "cut thin to win" or cut thick literally has no outcome on the following shoe. Think of it logically... How on Earth could it help to put it at the front or back if you don't know the order of the cards? There are advanced AP techniques for cutting that does come with an advantage, but that also comes with more knowledge (say we know the bottom card). If you're just cutting the deck to cut and don't know additional information, then no, it doesn't matter where you cut the shoe. When the dealer puts the last cut in for the cutoff of the shoe, they should ALWAYS be placing it near the back of the shoe, approximately 1-2 decks from the back (however good the penetration is there).

6) For basic strategy, or for a TC of +4 it's the right play to split your 8's vs a dealer 5. For that matter though, just so you know, whatever ANY OTHER PLAYERS at the table do does NOT affect your EV in the long run. Since we don't know what order the cards are going to come out of the shoe them doing something stupid, like hitting 16 vs dealer 5) is JUST AS LIKELY to help or hurt you. Hell, what if the idiot hits 16v5 and pulls a 5, which would have made the dealer 20, then the dealer busted? Most people don't remember when "bad play" helps them, only when it hurts them. Remember though, no matter what anyone else does at the table it literally has the same chance of helping you as hurting you and doesn't affect you AT ALL in the long run.

7) I do hope you have read, or will read the 3 articles I posted. It explains a lot about the math and logic of the game that I think you would benefit from. Most people I've mentored read the articles several times and each and every time tell me about something new they learned. There's a ton of info to unpack from them and I'd highly encourage you to give them a couple reads.

8)

Quote: JoelDeze

I'd like to apologize for the times I say something that is perceived as touting...

Apology accepted and no more worries about it. Consider it buried, until the next time you claim to be the best Pai Gow Player in the world or something lol =).

On your advice I gave up the prop bets altogether.

On betting spread, it definitely depends on my bank roll and what table I'm on. The tables I've played at are the following min ($15, $25, $50, $100, $200). On the $200 my bank roll was $7,500. On $15 my bank roll is around $1,200. As for betting spread I usually play between (min and 35% of table max).

I've read your articles and feel that I have a lot still to learn. On BJ lately I'm averaging about 1 in 4 good sessions. Some of the bad sessions I'm not taking a huge loss but it's hit my confidence quite a bit now so I'm staying away from BJ until I can regain some confidence and learn to play better. I get a bit discouraged when I have a high count and the shoe still goes the dealer way. It bothers me when I play fairly solid, regardless of the play of others around me at the table, and yet the dealer shoe seems to be tilted greatly in the house favor.

I really appreciate the information and the advice.

Quote: JoelDeze

I get a bit discouraged when I have a high count and the shoe still goes the dealer way. It bothers me when I play fairly solid, regardless of the play of others around me at the table, and yet the dealer shoe seems to be tilted greatly in the house favor.

I believe the events you're referring to are simply called the Variance. When the events you describe happened to me -- while it's NOT fun to lose -- I tell myself if I played correctly, I've already won!

Correctly for me, besides playing perfect basic strategy (I'm still a beginner) means I know the numbers for these 5 questions:

1. . . . the house edge
2. . . . my bet spread
3. . . . my session bankroll
4. . . . my hourly EV (expected value) of the game I'm going to play
5. . . . the PEN? Avoid playing if PEN < 60%, because I'll rarely get a TC to merit raising my bet.

EDIT: These questions are not my original creation - I adapted them from the 3 Articles of Romes. There are several other elements that favor even more positive EV, but I'm not quite there yet, like memorizing I18.

Quote: JoelDeze

...I get a bit discouraged when I have a high count and the shoe still goes the dealer way. It bothers me when I play fairly solid, regardless of the play of others around me at the table, and yet the dealer shoe seems to be tilted greatly in the house favor...

And you've found the cornerstone of why many give up blackjack =). You can count correctly for hours, all night waiting for a hot shoe... Then you finally get one and the dealer gets the Blackjacks over and over. It can be pretty frustrating when this happens and even more crazy when it happens for weeks or even months on end. It takes a pretty solid stomach to be able to handle these sick runs (in both directions). On a good variance night you'll get all the BJ's. On a bad variance night the dealer will... but notice and remember this is what we want because we get 150% for ours and the dealer doesn't. So we'll win when this happens, but it takes time and hands to smooth out the variance of the game. A lot of "counters" want to see more instant results and if they're not winning after 10 sessions (with like 2k hands) they'll quit, when in reality you can mathematically guarantee you're positive after like 75k hands. It takes time, patients, and a great understanding of the math of the game to stick with it to get to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

EDIT: As LW also pointed out, your bet spread is a very important factor here. As shown in article 1 with the excel table, what you bet and when will greatly change your EV. Two counters could both spread $10-$200... and one could DOUBLE the other's EV by modifying how/when they spread to what.

Player 1: EV = ~$26/hour... TC -1 to +5... 10, 10, 30, 60, 110, 150, 200

Player 2: EV = ~$18/hour... TC -1 to +5... 10, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 200

Quote: Romes

And you've found the cornerstone of why many give up blackjack =). You can count correctly for hours, all night waiting for a hot shoe... Then you finally get one and the dealer gets the Blackjacks over and over. It can be pretty frustrating when this happens and even more crazy when it happens for weeks or even months on end. It takes a pretty solid stomach to be able to handle these sick runs (in both directions). On a good variance night you'll get all the BJ's. On a bad variance night the dealer will... but notice and remember this is what we want because we get 150% for ours and the dealer doesn't. So we'll win when this happens, but it takes time and hands to smooth out the variance of the game. A lot of "counters" want to see more instant results and if they're not winning after 10 sessions (with like 2k hands) they'll quit, when in reality you can mathematically guarantee you're positive after like 75k hands. It takes time, patients, and a great understanding of the math of the game to stick with it to get to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

EDIT: As LW also pointed out, your bet spread is a very important factor here. As shown in article 1 with the excel table, what you bet and when will greatly change your EV. Two counters could both spread $10-$200... and one could DOUBLE the other's EV by modifying how/when they spread to what.

Player 1: EV = ~$26/hour... TC -1 to +5... 10, 10, 30, 60, 110, 150, 200

Player 2: EV = ~$18/hour... TC -1 to +5... 10, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 200

Alright, this makes me feel better. When I'm counting correctly, in general I do feel confident. When I see that I'm to a +29 RC and the TC is at +4 and hear people around the table saying this table sucks, I'm leaving, I just calmly sit there knowing that I'm where I need to be. Sometimes I break even at that point and other times I lose a little. I have only had a couple of big nights where the variance went my way in a large fashion. On one weekend (about 10 months ago) I won $5,500 on Friday and $8,500 on the next day. Of course, the next week I went back thinking I had mastered everything and lost $7,500. So, I learned my lesson then. It was a hard lesson.

I'm going to wait 3 to 4 more weeks, reading and digesting some of the information while I practice my counts. I'll especially pay attention to the betting spreads and the i18. I do have a question on the i18 regarding decks. Does it mainly work on 6-decks or will it work on 8-decks. I play on both.

Also, which books do you recommend for reading? I purchased Blackjack Attack and Blackjack Bluebook II.

Quote: JoelDeze

Also, which books do you recommend for reading? I purchased Blackjack Attack and Blackjack Bluebook II.

I'm pretty sure you'll get responses from readers that will include "Beat the Dealer" by Edward Thorp. I got mine yesterday on Amazon for under $9 (advertised as used, but it felt brand new). It's amazing to read a 60+ year old book telling us "stuff" that is mostly relevant today! (except for time-machine info like "Minimum bet in BJ is $0.25 up to $5 . . . ha! ha!). BTD is the card-counter's bible! Wait to hear from others . . .

Quote: JoelDeze

I had thought I was doing fairly well but now I'm losing a bit of confidence.

I feel bad when anyone is experiencing what you have been. When I read the article below, it reminded me of your sorrows. HTH,

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/28407-absolutely-sickened/

I had two smaller winning sessions after deciding to go back. I changed my betting spread and learned 5 more orders from the I18. I felt it helped a lot. I'm waiting on my books to come in so I can read and absorb. I stopped playing prop bets. I relaxed. It helped to relax and realize that variance may or may not be on my side today. When it was, I felt really solid.

Quote: JoelDeze

Alright, this makes me feel better. When I'm counting correctly, in general I do feel confident. When I see that I'm to a +29 RC and the TC is at +4 and hear people around the table saying this table sucks, I'm leaving, I just calmly sit there knowing that I'm where I need to be. Sometimes I break even at that point and other times I lose a little.

Wait, you're taking a break when the TC is +4? That's a card counting sin if I'm reading that correctly =).

Quote: JoelDeze

I have only had a couple of big nights where the variance went my way in a large fashion. On one weekend (about 10 months ago) I won $5,500 on Friday and $8,500 on the next day. Of course, the next week I went back thinking I had mastered everything and lost $7,500. So, I learned my lesson then. It was a hard lesson.

The real lesson here is even if/when you HAVE actually mastered the game, you'll STILL win $8k this weekend and lose $8k the next. That's the natural swings of the game that skill cannot overcome... Time and hands (playing correctly) will overcome the variance. Like I tell my ploppy friends that know I count: "On any one single given night I can't tell you whether I'll win or lose... but over 5,000 trips to the casino, I can and will mathematically guarantee I win."

Quote: JoelDeze

I'm going to wait 3 to 4 more weeks, reading and digesting some of the information while I practice my counts. I'll especially pay attention to the betting spreads and the i18. I do have a question on the i18 regarding decks. Does it mainly work on 6-decks or will it work on 8-decks. I play on both.

That sounds like a solid plan to study and practice. One thing I'd suggest... STICK TO ONE COUNT. Pick the one that you make the least amount of mistakes with (so long as it's a 'mainstream' count - no ace/5 or simplified counts). I've been counting for over a decade and I've never needed more than 1 count... for the main blackjack game =).

Quote: JoelDeze

Also, which books do you recommend for reading? I purchased Blackjack Attack and Blackjack Bluebook II.

Beat the Dealer (Ed Thorp), Playing Blackjack Like a Business (Revere), Professional Blackjack (Wong). These 3 books will cost you under $50, provide you hours of fun reading since you like blackjack, and return THOUSANDS of dollars to you from the knowledge you pull out of them.

Lastly, the I18 will work for 6 or 8 D. In general, you can apply the I18 to any number of decks you use, though when you get in to the nooks and cranny's of 1D and 2D the numbers can change ever so slightly. Just learn the I18 for 6D and use that for all number of decks and you'll get the mass majority of the advantage from it. If you want to learn more indexes, instead of learning those small differences, learn more index numbers for 6D. A good counter will know about 25 indexes, a great one 50 or more.

Quote: Romes

Wait, you're taking a break when the TC is +4? That's a card counting sin if I'm reading that correctly =).

He said when others leave.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He said when others leave.

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol

Quote: Romes

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol

When I counted regularly, one of my biggest shoes came as the players left a rising count. Had a nice 7's split to four hands with three doubles. Dealer obliged busting a hard 13. :-)

Quote: Romes

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol

Yeah, I don't leave the table when the TC is +4. I feel bad for others that leave because the variance is not working out for them at that point in time. I can't stand up and say, hey you really shouldn't leave. The count is in your favor. I'm probably a little too sympathetic at times. But, I'm there for the duration.

I do have a question regarding the negative RC count. At what point of PEN into the shoe and at what count should you generally leave the table? For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?

Quote: JoelDeze

...I do have a question regarding the negative RC count. At what point of PEN into the shoe and at what count should you generally leave the table?

The penetration doesn't matter because you're accounting for this in your True Count conversion. You should sit out, take a phone call, go to the bathroom, switch tables, get something to eat, or flat out leave when the TC drops below your threshold. Every count has a different one. Some never play negative counts so they do one of those things when the TC < 0. However, most of us that don't live in Vegas or don't have a ton of casinos near by are limited on our casino options. Some people only have 1 casino around within hours. For the rest of us this is just not an option because you'll be sitting out or table hopping, etc, entirely too frequently and draw attention to yourself... and since we only have 1 or maybe 2 casinos near by, we really don't want to get 86'd from them.

Thus, most players with just a couple casinos near them need to "camp out" a little bit more than the Vegas hit and run pros. I generally play down through TC -1. Thus when the TC hits -2 I will do one of those things above to not play. Some players though that only have 1 casino ANYWHERE near them that only has a few tables (thus can't table hop too easily), or perhaps it's crowded and the tables are full, etc, etc, they will play down a bit further through TC -2 and sit out/etc when the TC hits -3.

This all depends on what you want to make hourly. Remember the excel sheet? When you put a NON-ZERO bet in for your bet at TC -2, this is going to generate negative gain per hand (because the house has an edge against you at that point). Thus, this is going to take money away from your hourly EV to play TC -2. So it's a give and take balance that you need to work up your own spreadsheet, figure out what hourly you're comfortable with for the balance of your play as to not get booted/banned from the places around you, etc.

For "generics" I'd recommend sitting out/etc when the TC hits -2. Thus, on the spreadsheet your bet for TC -2 should be 0. A good option, if you can get away with doing it every now and then, is to just simply say something like "I'm gonna take a few hands off" and just sit there and count. If the count dips more then find a reason not to come back in. If the table is winning then "This must be a X player shoe, I'll stay out of your way!" or if the table is losing "This is a dealer shoe, I'll wait for the next one..." Experience will provide you with endless excuses to play when you want to and not to play when you don't want to.

Quote: JoelDeez

For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?

In this example, there are 3 decks left and the RC is -19... Thus, the TC is (-19 / 3) = -6.3333... Yeah, I would have been sitting out a while ago =).

Quote: Romes

For "generics" I'd recommend sitting out/etc when the TC hits -2. Thus, on the spreadsheet your bet for TC -2 should be 0. A good option, if you can get away with doing it every now and then, is to just simply say something like "I'm gonna take a few hands off" and just sit there and count.

Just wanted to say that for the first time since Oct 2016 (after your recent explanation on how to calculate EV), I could finally read a paragraph like this and understand what's going on!

Quote: Romes

Quote: JoelDeez

For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?

In this example, there are 3 decks left and the RC is -19... Thus, the TC is (-19 / 3) = -6.3333... Yeah, I would have been sitting out a while ago =).

Thanks again Romes. I've re-read your information and I've now gone through half of my first book, "Blackjack Attack", and I'm starting to see he picture a bit more clearly now.

First, I'm able to calculate EV and SD and see my range now per hour. I'm not upset anymore given that I was still in the 1 SD range on losses (roughly in the 68% range). I also realize that I'm not playing a very advantageous game when I go to the 8-deck shoe (min of $15 to $25). The 6-deck shoe offers a better return but in Twin Rivers case, the tables are $50 and allow no midshoe entry. So, I don't think I can take advantage of any back counting techniques. I've decided that I won't play until TC +1 now, even with my limited casino choices. I can either back count to TC +1 and sit at an 8-deck shoe or min bet at a 6-deck play all shoe and hope that I move to a positive TC as soon as possible. Or, if moves negative I could say I want to sit a few hands out and count like you suggested.

Given my limited choices, what do you suggest?

Quote: JoelDeze

...Given my limited choices, what do you suggest?

Well a lot of this is going to depend on heat. I've had casinos where their 6D S17 $50 min shoe games are watched like HAWKS while just down the pit there are some $15 H17 8D games that they could give two sh*ts about and you can BLAST away at those games all day. In that case, the 8D game is a wayyyyy better game to play. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I consider HEAT to be the #1 playing condition / rule to be aware of. If you can find a game with zero heat, even with bad rules it can be a gold mine. I look at heat, then penetration, then the table rules themselves. In the same scenario above with 6D S17 $50 min and 50% penetration... then 8D H17 $15 min with 90% penetration, the 8D game will yield you more per hour guaranteed, without even considering the heat the better rule game will bring.

It also depends on your bankroll and spread. Can you bankroll handle a $50 min game and spreading $50-$450 or so? If not, then well this game isn't an option anyways. Say you can handle a big bet of $300... Well, with the spreadsheets or whatever ways you're calculating your EV, you should be able to plug in your spread ($50-$300 even) and then $15-$250 or so and take a look at your hourly EV's for each game at that point. This way you're within your bankroll tolerance and you can see just what each game will make you hourly (without heat) and move forward with a decision from there.

So in order to make a good suggestion, I'd need to know:
1) The level of heat on both games
2) The penetration on both games
3) Your max bet for your Bankroll

Quote: Romes

So in order to make a good suggestion, I'd need to know:
1) The level of heat on both games
2) The penetration on both games
3) Your max bet for your Bankroll

Sorry for the late reply Romes. I'll do my best to answer the questions.

1) Heat Below.

(3) games ($15 min 8-deck, $25 min 8-deck, $50 min 6-deck)

$15 min seems to have the most heat, but mostly if you hit the $100 bet or you come just under at $90. I hear them call checks play around that time and see the pit coming over, watching the table and scribbling notes. Since most, if not all of them, know me by name they also know the tendencies of my game. So, if I deviate and increase to say $150 on this table on TC4 or TC5 they seem to take notice. But, I've never been backed off or pulled aside in this place.

$25 tends to call checks play at the $150 mark but I don't see a lot of heat.

$50 I've never seen any heat. Or, none that I know of. I don't hear any calls nor do I see anyone watching me or writing notes.

2) Penetration varies. They swap dealers in the following rotations (20 min shift to another table or 20 min move to break and return to table). Therefore, it's hard to find a good advantage unless I specifically know the dealer and I tip well. When I do that I can usually just say something like, "I really hope this is a long shoe... I hate shuffles" and then the dealer seems to take the queue and cut deeper. Avg is 75% - 90%. I only see 90% on novice dealers or dealers that I know well. But, both games are 75% to 80%.

3. My session bank roll is 100x of min table so $1,500 or $2,500. I'm not actively playing $50 anymore until I improve. I bet up to 10x on each table as a max bet (so $150 or $250).

I hope the info helps.

Joel,

The info does help a bit, but you're still leaving out some key information. Your session bankroll can be $2500, but if your max bet is $1k, then you're only taking 2.5 max bets to your session... If your max bet is even $500, I'd say you're not taking nearly enough money to your sessions that you need to. So actually defining your max bet is very important.

If your max bet is $200, given the heat and "average" PEN all around described above, then you should stick to the $25 games.

If your max bet is $150 then your only choice is really the $15 game.

If your max bet is $300 or more, and you actually have the bankroll to keep a low RoR, then you should play the $50 min game (mostly)... though I'll still caution while it may seem like little heat the higher the min "usually" the more the game is watched. I've found places where this wasn't the case, but they're definitely the exception to the rule. Perhaps the leverage surveillance more at those tables and let the PB's handle the lower min tables.

If you have the BR and Max Bet to play any game, you could play a mix of the $25 and $50 games pending your favorite dealers, how empty the tables are (so you can get more hands per hour), etc, etc. Your BR and Max Bet simply let you know what your hard restrictions are for choosing a game. After that, a good counter will hunt for the better options within their realm of possibilities.

Hi Romes,

I've been doing just that thanks to your advice. I now play $25 tables only with my max bet at $200.

Last night I played really well and ended up clearing $1,400 on a couple of advantageous shoes that encountered a great count and positive variance. I felt comfortable and confident and I played relaxed but focused. I really appreciate the advice and I've been reading quite a bit now. As the casino has opened up a lot more $25 tables recently, I'm able to back count to TC 1 before sitting down.

Quote: JoelDeze

Hi Romes,

I've been doing just that thanks to your advice. I now play $25 tables only with my max bet at $200.

Last night I played really well and ended up clearing $1,400 on a couple of advantageous shoes that encountered a great count and positive variance. I felt comfortable and confident and I played relaxed but focused. I really appreciate the advice and I've been reading quite a bit now. As the casino has opened up a lot more $25 tables recently, I'm able to back count to TC 1 before sitting down.

That's great to hear you've been reading up a bit more and having some nice positive variance. Also sounds like you found your home on the $25 tables for now (which is not at all too terrible a place to be!)... especially if you can back count and always wong in at TC +1 =).

Interesting discussion about heat. My local casino's BJ table is $5 - $100, with absolutely NO heat whatsoever, at least as far as I can tell. For instance, last night this guy comes in during the middle of a shoe, plops down $200, and spreads to 2 hands ($100 each). One hand requires a double, so back to the wallet. He loses the double but wins the other. Loses both hands the next deal, more $$ from the wallet. At one point he spreads to 3 hands, $100 each. He also asks the dealer about raising the house limit, but is denied. After about 6-8 minutes the guy is in for a bout $900-1000, but finally catches a few good breaks, wins a few hands, but walks away down $200-300. All in less than 10 minutes. And during the play he's asking the table how to play: "13 v. dealer 7, should I hit that?", "Should I split these 2s against the dealer 4?" Geez, if I'm betting $100 a hand I'd absolutely know how to play!!

Anyway, the casino doesn't really have a pit boss, but rather something akin to a 'floor manager.' The manager is only called over to a table when someone buys in for $100 or more (usually the dealer just calls out 'check one' and the manager replies 'okay'), or when the result of play requires a dealer payout of $100+, or there's a late bet, or the dealer forgets to pay a bet, etc. A lot of times, the floor manager is simply another dealer who's waiting to go on shift. No one EVER takes notes, or watches play. They're usually watching the ball game on the 4-5 TVs in the room or chit chatting with the dealers or some of the regulars. If I suddenly raised my bet from $5 to $75, no one would bat an eye. Perhaps an advantage of smaller-town casino?

Quote: theoriemeister

Interesting discussion about heat. My local casino's BJ table is $5 - $100, with absolutely NO heat whatsoever, at least as far as I can tell. For instance, last night this guy comes in during the middle of a shoe, plops down $200, and spreads to 2 hands ($100 each). One hand requires a double, so back to the wallet. He loses the double but wins the other. Loses both hands the next deal, more $$ from the wallet. At one point he spreads to 3 hands, $100 each. He also asks the dealer about raising the house limit, but is denied. After about 6-8 minutes the guy is in for a bout $900-1000, but finally catches a few good breaks, wins a few hands, but walks away down $200-300. All in less than 10 minutes. And during the play he's asking the table how to play: "13 v. dealer 7, should I hit that?", "Should I split these 2s against the dealer 4?" Geez, if I'm betting $100 a hand I'd absolutely know how to play!!

I've actually done this before while getting called in to a hot shoe. Come in, bet large, and play the role of a dummy. The BEST hands to ask for advice on are the hands that are the most obvious, because if I have 10v10 and the TC is +4, I want to double, so I don't want the table to tell me "just hit." So when I get 13 v dealer 10, I'll ask "should I hit this?" because the answer is always going to be "yes" which is also the correct play =).

Quote: theoriemeister

Anyway, the casino doesn't really have a pit boss, but rather something akin to a 'floor manager.' The manager is only called over to a table when someone buys in for $100 or more (usually the dealer just calls out 'check one' and the manager replies 'okay'), or when the result of play requires a dealer payout of $100+, or there's a late bet, or the dealer forgets to pay a bet, etc. A lot of times, the floor manager is simply another dealer who's waiting to go on shift. No one EVER takes notes, or watches play. They're usually watching the ball game on the 4-5 TVs in the room or chit chatting with the dealers or some of the regulars. If I suddenly raised my bet from $5 to $75, no one would bat an eye. Perhaps an advantage of smaller-town casino?

Well, this happens in big and small casinos it just depends on their education level and/or tolerance. Some of the smarter places don't care AT ALL about the low limit tables because they know they can't be beat for much on them, and the majority of counters are under funded anyways and will bust themselves out due to regular variance. Then, at places that have no clue about counting they still don't care about the $5 tables because well, they have no clue. The "no clue" in general (each casino is different) happens at the smaller-town casinos that you mentioned.

You should definitely work up a 1x$5 to 3x$100 spread and bankroll then =D. At a "decent" (.4%) HE game you could make $25-$35/hour. Not too bad for some part time entertainment.

HA!! Counting cards is WORK! :-)

I was once told, "you WORK too hard."

Do you have the link to the articles? I would be interested to take a look at them and learn your abbreviations. I don't play blackjack often but when I do I look for single deck games. I have a very crude system I try and use to count cards (though here in tampa they never get past 60% of the deck) I use three counts

1 "10's" (10-k)
2 Aces
3 2-6 's

I have not really tied counting the 7-8-9 because I never have completely figured out their impact on the game and like I said I do not play much BJ so it has never been enough for me to research. I have played only because a friend wanted to maybe 3 times in the last 3 years.

Quote: troopscott

Do you have the link to the articles? ...

If you're referring to my 3 A-Z articles they're available in the Articles Section of this site. Here are the links:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: Romes

I've actually done this before while getting called in to a hot shoe. Come in, bet large, and play the role of a dummy. The BEST hands to ask for advice on are the hands that are the most obvious, because if I have 10v10 and the TC is +4, I want to double, so I don't want the table to tell me "just hit." So when I get 13 v dealer 10, I'll ask "should I hit this?" because the answer is always going to be "yes" which is also the correct play =).

This guy was not back counting. He had no flipping' idea of the count. (In fact, I think the RC was slightly negative.) I think he was playing poker in the back room and came over to the table games room to kill time. Even when he didn't ask for help, he still misplayed a few hands (e.g. NOT doubling A-4 v. dealer 5) and didn't ask for help. Still, I suppose I could always be wrong about the guy, too.

Once my counting improves, I won't be such a wuss at betting more! :)