Venetian $5 video blackjack large machines

Update on venetian. There are two large screen $5 min blackjack 5-player machines. They are 3-2, 4 deck, early surrender.

I am suspicious these machines are fair. I spent my day reading on here about basic strategy. I printed the strategy table vle and referenced it every hand. I played $10 bets on a $100 roll.

I lost all $100 in 40 minutes with 5 people on game the whole time. I was dealed several bad cards, getting 12-14 several times.

With that game and my bet limits, fair odds and house edge calculator would have said I could last hours. Of course there is variation, but $100 in 40 minutes is quite a large deviation and highly unlikely.

Since this was my first longer run with the machine, I am suspicious this machine isn't exactly fair. I could have just gotten very unlucky but that is very unlikely from probability. I wanted to play for a few hours and modified my betting to give me at least a couple hour expected play.

On paper, that machine offers the best blackjack in venetian, and good overall. However, if something isn't right with it then it's very misleading.

Any thoughts?

extremely small sample size. i've lost $100 playing $5 blackjack in 20 mins or so. Tell me what it's like after 1000 or 5000 hands....

The machines are fair.

I'd be rather willing to bet these machines are fair.

Assuming they have a generic .5% HE, you played 40 min so let's say something like 60 hands, and you bet $10 the whole time.

OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 11.5 ...(1.15 is the variance of blackjack)


EV(x hands) = (AvgBet*NumHands)*(HouseEdge)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

EV(60 hands) = (10*60)*(-.005) = -$3
SD(60 hands) = Sqrt(60) * 11.5 = ~$90

to be 95% confident we need to use 2SD... which 2SD = $180

So with 95% confidence when you played 60 hands you could expect to lose $3 +/- $180... which means losing $100 is well within that range. Nothing out of the ordinary here at all since you're looking at a VERY SMALL sampling size so the variance can (and will) be wild. Would you think the machines were gaffed for the player had you won $100 in 40 min? After all, each and every time you play 40 min on that machine for the rest of your life you should expect to lose $3.

I think they are late surrender not early surrender.

The number of hands was definitely under 60. No more than 40 for sure with the 5 people on and waiting time for bets on the machine. How does that affect your assessment? It should be a smaller range right?

Since it was my first time really on the machine, getting - $100 on a -$183 - +177 variation I knew was unlucky (and I think your calculations will have a tighter range with smaller hands) . I didnt count the number of hands but it was definitely under 60, try using 30 & 40.

I am just suspicious at this point, and getting a very bad result on the first shot adds to that. It is possible, sure, just unlikely.

People say machines are fair because the law requires it, but humans have to code the machines and there are always bugs. Ones that help the house don't make a priority list unless someone else discovers it (good luck proving that). Ones that hurt the house will be fixed pronto.

Sorry I might have said that wrong. It only lets surrender for your first option, not after a hit. Also, no surrender allowed when dealer has an ace.

I took photos of the machine rules.

I am ashamed to say I went a long time without realizing the machines often pay even money for a natural. In fact I flatly refuse to reveal how recently it was when I wised up! Thankfully, I almost never played them.

Since then I have been unable to find a machine on the East coast that paid correctly; not that I have any way of being thorough.

So I guess you can tell I am saying I hope you have made sure naturals don't pay 2 for 1 - which is how they usually put it.

Quote: Oddguy2017

The number of hands was definitely under 60. No more than 40 for sure with the 5 people on and waiting time for bets on the machine. How does that affect your assessment? It should be a smaller range right?

The reason I gave the generic formulas is so that anyone ( ;-) ) could now run them for whatever numbers they desired...

EV(40 hands) = (10*40)*(-.005) = -$2
SD(40 hands) = Sqrt(40) * 11.5 = 72... 2SD = $144

You're still well within the regular range... to imply cheating would have to be outside of 3SD AND you'd have to have a decent sampling size to go with it.

The smaller the number of hands the LESS of a case you have. That's like losing 1 single hand and saying "The game clearly has a 0% payout programmed in!" Well no, you just lost one hand...

Quote: Oddguy2017

Since it was my first time really on the machine, getting - $100 on a -$183 - +177 variation I knew was unlucky (and I think your calculations will have a tighter range with smaller hands) . I didnt count the number of hands but it was definitely under 60, try using 30 & 40.

I am just suspicious at this point, and getting a very bad result on the first shot adds to that. It is possible, sure, just unlikely.

Why would getting bad results add to anything other than your non-math based suspicion? Sure, it can add to your suspicion all day, but your suspicion doesn't mean anything towards the machine being fair or not. Math is what can determine that. I've seen the exact machines you're referring to, and I highly doubt in a prominent 'mid-strip' casino such as the Venetian that they would put in gaffed $5 video blackjack machines =p. So much so that I would be willing to bet you money these are fair games =).

Quote: Oddguy2017

People say machines are fair because the law requires it, but humans have to code the machines and there are always bugs. Ones that help the house don't make a priority list unless someone else discovers it (good luck proving that). Ones that hurt the house will be fixed pronto.

I'm also a programmer, and you're right they could, but why would they? They have a game where they are GUARANTEED TO GET MONEY FROM because it has a House Advantage built in. There's literally no need to program it to make "more" money while putting their gaming licence at risk and adding the possibility of fines. Past that, they have companies that review the code searching for said bugs and certifying the games randomness. Yes, there have been cases of cheating casinos before (mostly indian casinos but yes non) and while it does happen it's very few and far between (and usually not in Vegas).

Quote: Romes

The reason I gave the generic formulas is so that anyone ( ;-) ) could now run them for whatever numbers they desired...

EV(40 hands) = (10*40)*(-.005) = -$2
SD(40 hands) = Sqrt(40) * 11.5 = 72... 2SD = $144

You're still well within the regular range... to imply cheating would have to be outside of 3SD AND you'd have to have a decent sampling size to go with it.

The smaller the number of hands the LESS of a case you have. That's like losing 1 single hand and saying "The game clearly has a 0% payout programmed in!" Well no, you just lost one hand...

Thanks for updating on that, that confirms what I suspected that I was even unluckier on my first try at this game, being near the bottom of the range (and as you know, the tail ends of the range are less likely than near the mean)

Quote: Romes

I'm also a programmer, and you're right they could, but why would they? They have a game where they are GUARANTEED TO GET MONEY FROM because it has a House Advantage built in. There's literally no need to program it to make "more" money while putting their gaming licence at risk and adding the possibility of fines. Past that, they have companies that review the code searching for said bugs and certifying the games randomness. Yes, there have been cases of cheating casinos before (mostly indian casinos but yes non) and while it does happen it's very few and far between (and usually not in Vegas).

I'm not implying that they intentionally are rigging the machines, but I am implying that any bugs favoring the casino have a lot of reasons why they wouldn't be high priority fixes (unless it was discovered through a legal regulator or through months of collecting data on it to show an issue). However, a bug that was against the casino would only need the casino to discover it and you can bet that they would make that a very high priority fix.
There are bugs in every piece of non-trivial software - I would bet money that bugs exist in every single video/machine game in a casino.

... and btw, I was surprised you would think that a casino has no reason to want to add an advantage above the mathematical values? That's like asking why any entity would want more than a given amount of money - greed, self-interest, profit. Of course they would be motivated and tempted to add in additional advantages that they can get away with it. That's why they are very self-interested in discovering and fixing any bug that hurts them, but not as interested in discovering bugs that help them.


Getting a statistically very unlucky streak on your first seat at a game raises suspicion. I also doubt that there is much of a fault with the machine, but it sure made me wonder. I took photos of the rules again to see if there was anything I was missing in them - but they are fairly liberal rules for vegas (and I prefer the video machine where I can sit non-embarrassed with the basic strategy tables in front of me).

Most likely, I was just very unlucky - but it sure gave me pause and disappointment after I just spent hours learning how to play basic strategy and finding one of the lowest house-edge blackjack plays in Vegas.


btw - I went across the street to TI based on web reviews. They did have a live 2-deck table, $10 minimum, 3-2, h17 during a weekday evening, which would be better odds if other rules were the same as the video. I didn't have time to ask about the other rules though like surrenders and doubles, but they were probably good since the main ones were. I would give up a little edge though to play at a machine personally though.

I believe you are talking about the machines with the simulated dealer?
If so, almost every one I have seen pays 3-2 on BJ. I did see a few that paid 6-5, but never one that paid 1-1. Only BJ on Video Poker machines pays that, as far as I know. I don't frequent the strip so perhaps they do now pay that.

Quote: billryan

I believe you are talking about the machines with the simulated dealer?
If so, almost every one I have seen pays 3-2 on BJ. I did see a few that paid 6-5, but never one that paid 1-1. Only BJ on Video Poker machines pays that, as far as I know. I don't frequent the strip so perhaps they do now pay that.

Yes the large machines with simulated dealer - there are 2 in the Venetian by the tables, and they pay 3-2.

You lost 10 bets in 40min playing BJ? This would not even begin to raise suspicion about the game integrity sir.

Quote: Oddguy2017

Thanks for updating on that, that confirms what I suspected that I was even unluckier on my first try at this game, being near the bottom of the range (and as you know, the tail ends of the range are less likely than near the mean)

Actually my thought was that this proves you're right within the norm and possible variance swings of the game... Not that you were that much "unluckier."

Quote: Oddguy2017

I'm not implying that they intentionally are rigging the machines, but I am implying that any bugs favoring the casino have a lot of reasons why they wouldn't be high priority fixes (unless it was discovered through a legal regulator or through months of collecting data on it to show an issue). However, a bug that was against the casino would only need the casino to discover it and you can bet that they would make that a very high priority fix.
There are bugs in every piece of non-trivial software - I would bet money that bugs exist in every single video/machine game in a casino.

This is again EXCEEDINGLY unlikely and do you want to know why? When these games are tested they have simulations that play MILLIONS and MILLIONS of hands on the game... In the end they look at the win%, loss%, tie%, and much more to make sure they are mathematically what they are supposed to be. So over the course of millions upon millions of hands the game tested and was certified as correctly functioning. Any "bug" that would help the casino would 110% absolutely unbalance these numbers after that many hands and be EASILY noticed.

Quote: Oddguy2017

Getting a statistically very unlucky streak on your first seat at a game raises suspicion.

No, actually it raises less. Had this been your 10th time playing the machine and it was a loser, maybe that raises a "little" suspicion. If this was your 100th time playing the machine and losing, then yes that would rasie suspicion. If this was your 10,000th time playing the machine and losing, then that raises the red flags! However you can't say "I lost one time omg possibly rigged." Do you see how the FEWER number of occurrences (thus the less number of hands, etc, etc, that we've been repeating) the LESS suspicion you should have?

Quote: Oddguy2017

Most likely, I was just very unlucky

Most likely you were just unlucky, but not even "very" unlucky. To be "very" unlucky you'd have to be closer to 3SD which as shown above was like $220 or something.

Quote: mcallister3200

I think they are late surrender not early surrender.

I had to do a double take when he said early surrender(I couldn't wait to read on). I haven't seen early surrender on a machine since the Williams BJ machines in the 90s. Has anyone seen early surrender on a machine in the last 15 years?

There has been a few live early surrender games in LV(I didn't really travel a lot back then). I can only think of boardwalk right now, they offered it for a short time.

Has anyone found a good BJ game with early surrender?

Quote: AxelWolf

...Has anyone found a good BJ game with early surrender?

Are you asking us to expose a good AP play? For shame Axel... For shame.

Quote: AxelWolf

I had to do a double take when he said early surrender(I couldn't wait to read on). I haven't seen early surrender on a machine since the Williams BJ machines in the 90s. Has anyone seen early surrender on a machine in the last 15 years?

There has been a few live early surrender games in LV(I didn't really travel a lot back then). I can only think of boardwalk right now, they offered it for a short time.

Has anyone found a good BJ game with early surrender?

Sorry to get people excited about early surrender :) I tried to edit the post but the option isn't there anymore.

Quote: AxelWolf

I had to do a double take when he said early surrender(I couldn't wait to read on). I haven't seen early surrender on a machine since the Williams BJ machines in the 90s. Has anyone seen early surrender on a machine in the last 15 years?

There has been a few live early surrender games in LV(I didn't really travel a lot back then). I can only think of boardwalk right now, they offered it for a short time.

Has anyone found a good BJ game with early surrender?

Ya I played one last month a few times.

Max bet was $57 and you could only play one spot.
You also have to fly 6000 miles to get to it.😆

Quote: Oddguy2017

Getting a statistically very unlucky streak on your first seat at a game raises suspicion..

In addition to it being completely within reason to experience this, I would think that the longer you hop from game to game for 40 minutes winning and losing the MORE likely you are to experience the event you describe at some point in your gaming experience. In other words as your playing experience tends towards the long run the likelihood of you losing $100 for a single 40 minute period of blackjack tends towards 100%.

Quote: Romes

you can't say "I lost one time omg possibly rigged."

but it was the first time he played that kind of machine! You're supposed to have Beginner's Luck!

Don't be so much suspicions the machine is fair. If all the player who played with that machine lost then you can assume something is wrong with the machine. You just have a very unlucky day to play that machine.

Me and my team (my girlfriend) have done quite well on these.

When you say the game is "4 deck", do you mean cards are dealt from a 4 deck shoe? I've never seen a machine that plays a set number of decks (everything I've seen plays as if there is an infinite deck). If it truly deals from a 4 deck shoe, there is an AP opportunity here... with the added convenience of zero heat!! Am I missing something here, or are the casinos really that foolish?

Quote: harikarilord

When you say the game is "4 deck", do you mean cards are dealt from a 4 deck shoe? I've never seen a machine that plays a set number of decks (everything I've seen plays as if there is an infinite deck). If it truly deals from a 4 deck shoe, there is an AP opportunity here... with the added convenience of zero heat!! Am I missing something here, or are the casinos really that foolish?

The rules on the game information screen say:
In this game, 4 decks of cards are used.
After 80 cards have been dealt, the following game will commence with a shuffling of all cards before a new hand is dealt.

Across the street, Treasure Island had a live table with a 2 or 4 deck, I forget which one.

If I recall correctly it shuffles after something like 1.5 decks. Unless the value is in everything else, have fun beating your head against the wall.

Daaanggg - that is horrible penetration. Yep, definitely not worth an AP's time. Thanks for the clarifications!

Quote: harikarilord

Daaanggg - that is horrible penetration. Yep, definitely not worth an AP's time. Thanks for the clarifications!

Yep, nothing to see here :)