Bondy3
Bondy3
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 106
Joined: Jan 4, 2013
January 31st, 2017 at 11:13:21 AM permalink
I will be playing 20-30 hours of BJ, betting between $50-$100/hand (not counting cards, just randomly changing up my bets, table goes from like $25-$1000, but i'm not a min or max kinda guy)

the game I will be playing is going to be a standard single deck H17 game, I think the house edge is someplace around 0.2% but the deck is played till about 15-20 cards are left, so im guessing thats gonna raise the edge to closer to 0.5%, I play using basic strategy and never deviate from it. (I memorized the wizards single deck H17 strategy)

Also before you guys get all excited thinking this is a great AP opportunity, its not. they are quick to 86 people who spread more than 1:2 (regardless if they are counting cards or not)

How much money should I bring so I wont run out of chips while playing?
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5612
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
Thanked by
Bondy3
January 31st, 2017 at 11:24:07 AM permalink
61-71% on Single deck with apparently good rules (.2% HE) is a pretty good game. Careful not to get "randomly" backed off just betting $50-$100 lol. In single deck even an amateur can "count" by simply looking for small cards or denoting that all the 5's are gone or all the aces are still in.

Anyways, back to your original question...

Let's say your average bet is $75 then... You're playing with a House Edge of .25% (assuming you play proper single deck basic strategy!)... from there we can easily extrapolate your EV +/- SD's. The bigger question is hands per hour. Let's assume a couple people at your table and you're going to get about 80 hands per hour. So in 30 hours (max) of play, you're going to potentially play approximately 2400 hands of blackjack.

AvgBet = $75
AvgAdv = -.25%
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 75 = 86.25

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet*NumHands)*HouseEdge
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

EV(2400 hands) = (75*2400)*(-.0025) = -$450
SD(2400 hands) = Sqrt(2400) * 86.25 = $4,225.37

So what does this mean? This means after 30 hours of play you could expect to lose $450 +/- $4,225.37. Since this is one Standard Deviation (SD) that comes with 68% confidence. Let's at least do 2 SD's for 95% confidence...

2SD = $8,450.74

So to be 95% confident that you WON'T bust in your 30 hours of play (with $75 avg bet), you would need to bring (WORST CASE SCENARIO) -$450 - $8,450.74 = -$8900.74.

So bring $9k and you're practically guaranteed not to bust. =) If you want to be 68% confident in not busting then you'll need to bring about $4500. Or, if you play less hours or the pace of the game is slower than 80 hands per hour then you'll also need less. I'll leave it to you to run other examples (such as 60 hands per hour, or 20 hours) using the plug and chug formulas above =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Bondy3
Bondy3
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 106
Joined: Jan 4, 2013
January 31st, 2017 at 3:08:26 PM permalink
thanks for explaining how you got the numbers instead of just giving me the numbers, now I Feel confident running them myself for other values
Nathan
Nathan
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 4359
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
January 31st, 2017 at 6:17:14 PM permalink
Bring as much money you can afford to lose. Those 9 words should be every gambler's mantra. :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
  • Jump to: