Tracking Opportunity

Hi all,

Question regarding a pretty decent blackjack game already pretty vulnerable to card counting. Double deck 3/2 game H17, DAS, double any two, split to 4, resplit aces not sure, penetration less than half a deck. When I was there I got hardly any heat doing large spreads with large progressions. Dealer shuffles riffle riffle strip riffle although I have seen many dealers only riffle riffle.

Question applies even with a strip, although this obviously would be a little harder. The dealer takes the cards left over at the end and always puts them in the middle of the discard rack. My question is if there is a large number of high cards left in this stack, how feasible is it to track these cards for the next shoe? Say the count is +6 at the end of a shoe, the dealer shuffles and you have a decent idea where these cards could be (even better if you get the cut card). What would you expect the count to be for this slug of cards and how would with this work while also counting?

How much of an edge would this give above and over regular card counting?

Hey lightningbolts, and welcome to the forums.

Basically you're asking how to Shuffle Track, and what it's worth. There's a good amount of information online that should give you all the information and answers you need. If you find a dealer with a real weak shuffle and you're the one that gets to cut, this could work out quite well for you as with a negative NRS (non random shuffle) you can keep doing it over and over =).

The value of shuffle tracking depends on the clump and if you're playing that clump then sitting out/etc. It's like playing only with good counts. The big benefit to shuffle tracking is the eyes in the sky can't track your spread because if you do this right, you shouldn't really be spreading... Just blasting away at the good slug.

With my limited knowledge in ST, I believe ST in DD is going to be very difficult, let alone a beginner.

Yeah I've done some reading in past week on ST and it's really for shoe games. I guess this is more like plug tracking? Dealer always puts leftover cards in middle of discard in such a way that cards end up at bottom of a deck for riffling. So cards are basically always at top when asked to cut the two decks after riffle riffle strip riffle or at bottom fof riffle riffle. Or pretty close...

Quote: lightningbolts

Yeah I've done some reading in past week on ST and it's really for shoe games. I guess this is more like plug tracking? Dealer always puts leftover cards in middle of discard in such a way that cards end up at bottom of a deck for riffling. So cards are basically always at top when asked to cut the two decks after riffle riffle strip riffle or at bottom fof riffle riffle. Or pretty close...

Yeah I missed that you said DD... DD is definitely still vulnerable to shuffle tracking, though it is much harder. Usually with more decks they will miss clumps, and the clumps are easier to identify. In DD the clumps might only be 10 cards and they're going to shuffle both decks multiple times (where as a weak shuffle in shoe they might only make one or maybe two passes on that clump). The cards in DD will get much more randomized due to getting passed many more times.

However, if you find a dealer with a very predictable shuffle as you say, then just play min on the game and practice. If you feel you can reliably and consistently track the clump of cards, then after proving that to yourself with some testing go ahead and use that information. As stated above not only is it quite profitable, but most shops will treat you great as they won't think you're a counter either =).