Expected Hands with results
January 8th, 2017 at 1:33:43 PM
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Does anyone know the expected number of wins/losses/double down/splits/ties and blackjacks one would expect to receive on average, playing 1000 hands of standard rules and basic strategy?
I think it's something like this if anyone can confirm:
Blackjack 50
Doubles Won 70
Doubles Lost 40
All Ties 80
Win 310
Lose 450
EV = (50*1.5)+(70*2)+(40*-2)+(80*0)+(310*1)+(450*-1) = -5
I think it's something like this if anyone can confirm:
Blackjack 50
Doubles Won 70
Doubles Lost 40
All Ties 80
Win 310
Lose 450
EV = (50*1.5)+(70*2)+(40*-2)+(80*0)+(310*1)+(450*-1) = -5
January 9th, 2017 at 7:01:20 AM
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A much, much simpler way to calculate the EV would simply be EV = (NumHands*AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)
For example, you play 1,000 hands flat betting $5 per hand at a decent game that only has .4% HE:
EV = (1000*5)*(-0.004) = -20... so after 1,000 hands you could expect to lose $20 playing perfect basic strategy.
...Several of the numbers you're looking for are well documented though. You get blackjack 1 in ~21 hands. The Win/Loss/Push percentages are well known to be 42%/49%/9% respectively. From there you can get everything but doubles won/lost, though I suspect it wouldn't be too hard googling the WOO site to find out how often one doubles down, etc. Simply apply those % and numbers to get your numbers... such as blackjacks... 1000/21 = 47.619.
For example, you play 1,000 hands flat betting $5 per hand at a decent game that only has .4% HE:
EV = (1000*5)*(-0.004) = -20... so after 1,000 hands you could expect to lose $20 playing perfect basic strategy.
...Several of the numbers you're looking for are well documented though. You get blackjack 1 in ~21 hands. The Win/Loss/Push percentages are well known to be 42%/49%/9% respectively. From there you can get everything but doubles won/lost, though I suspect it wouldn't be too hard googling the WOO site to find out how often one doubles down, etc. Simply apply those % and numbers to get your numbers... such as blackjacks... 1000/21 = 47.619.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
