Multi-card 16 vs 10 in no-peek
January 4th, 2017 at 8:01:05 AM
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Basic strategy is to hit 16 vs 10, but with three or more cards it's correct to stand (there are some exceptions which Mike has listed elsewhere).
However, is this also correct in the European no-peek game? The generic EV numbers for the US hole card game, -0.53888 and -0.53504 for stand and hit, are much worse in no-peek (the dealer has a one in 13 chance of making blackjack dropping an ace on the 10), but I don't know what they are. I also don't know if that currently unknown difference between the EVs would be sufficiently great to make it correct to always hit any 16 vs. 10, irrespective of the number of cards.
Feedback welcome.
However, is this also correct in the European no-peek game? The generic EV numbers for the US hole card game, -0.53888 and -0.53504 for stand and hit, are much worse in no-peek (the dealer has a one in 13 chance of making blackjack dropping an ace on the 10), but I don't know what they are. I also don't know if that currently unknown difference between the EVs would be sufficiently great to make it correct to always hit any 16 vs. 10, irrespective of the number of cards.
Feedback welcome.
January 4th, 2017 at 12:05:27 PM
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ENHC makes no difference with hit vs. stand decisions, since anytime the dealer gets a BJ you lose your bet regardless (the difference is you need to be a lot more conservative with doubling or splitting against a 10 or Ace since you risk losing multiple bets to a dealer BJ). The EV numbers will be lower as you said, but any hit vs. stand decisions wouldn't flip.
January 4th, 2017 at 12:31:38 PM
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I've known generic basic strategy for many years.
Generic stand / hit with 16 vs 10 = -0.53888 / -0.53504. Difference = 0.00384.
If, say, we assumed a uniform 1/13 decrease in EV (one ace in 13, which kills the hand), we have:
-0.58033 / -0.57619. Difference = 0.00413.
I have no idea how to calculate the EV of the no-peek 16 vs 10, but that seems a possibility. And the difference increases.
At some point, the size of the EV difference would mean that no composition-dependent variation would apply. And just to clarify that my question regards composition dependent standing with multi-card 16 vs 10, not basic strategy decisions. For example, with 10/ace/5 vs 10 in peek you stand. With 10/4/2 you still hit. There comes a point when the 10/ace/5 decision would revert to a hit IF the EV difference was wide enough.
Quote: KellynbnfThe EV numbers will be lower as you said, but any hit vs. stand decisions wouldn't flip.
Generic stand / hit with 16 vs 10 = -0.53888 / -0.53504. Difference = 0.00384.
If, say, we assumed a uniform 1/13 decrease in EV (one ace in 13, which kills the hand), we have:
-0.58033 / -0.57619. Difference = 0.00413.
I have no idea how to calculate the EV of the no-peek 16 vs 10, but that seems a possibility. And the difference increases.
At some point, the size of the EV difference would mean that no composition-dependent variation would apply. And just to clarify that my question regards composition dependent standing with multi-card 16 vs 10, not basic strategy decisions. For example, with 10/ace/5 vs 10 in peek you stand. With 10/4/2 you still hit. There comes a point when the 10/ace/5 decision would revert to a hit IF the EV difference was wide enough.
