I like how you switched from "person A" to "player A" in your example.Quote: billryanPerson A rents an apartment for $1,000 and saves $1,000 towards paying cash for his house.
In 12 years, he has spent $144,000 on rent and can afford to buy a $144,000 house.
Person B buys a $125,000 house with $1,000 down. Gets a low interest mortgage and puts $2,000 a month into paying it off. He pays off his home in less than six years, continues to save that the same rate and after ten years , owns his home and has $100,000 in the bank
After 12 years, player A has a paid off house but no cash.
Player B has a paid off house and about $150,000, not to mention the extra cash he spent due to incredible tax benefits.
Yep, mortgages suck and should be avoided.
But this message is somehow what our hero took away from his business degree. After all, we should all be taking life advice on "avoiding handouts" as a path to financial success -- from a man in his mid-20s who can't hold down a job and lives with his parents.
Not that there's anything wrong with being in your mid-20s and living with your parents while realizing that your college degree didn't adequately prepare you for the corporate world, but that's an entirely different situation than simultaneously accepting free room and board while complaining that "handouts" have led to the decline of American society. What are the chances that his parents' house doesn't have a mortgage? Or the apartment building he's looking to rent next?
As I said before, there's very little hope for our hero if he can't understand the equivalence between one form of borrowing and another. He accused me of destroying the economy yet he wants to outlaw credit cards, mortgages, and car loans? Talk about destroying the economy...
Quote: MathExtremistI like how you switched from "person A" to "player A" in your example.
But this message is somehow what our hero took away from his business degree. After all, we should all be taking life advice on "avoiding handouts" as a path to financial success -- from a man in his mid-20s who can't hold down a job and lives with his parents.
Not that there's anything wrong with being in your mid-20s and living with your parents while realizing that your college degree didn't adequately prepare you for the corporate world, but that's an entirely different situation than simultaneously accepting free room and board while complaining that "handouts" have led to the decline of American society. What are the chances that his parents' house doesn't have a mortgage? Or the apartment building he's looking to rent next?
As I said before, there's very little hope for our hero if he can't understand the equivalence between one form of borrowing and another. He accused me of destroying the economy yet he wants to outlaw credit cards, mortgages, and car loans? Talk about destroying the economy...
You got a lot to learn buddy.
Your original reply is smitten with problems. It doesn't matter who you are, or how "good" you are, or how hard you work, a little luck goes a long way with anyone. Imagine being that good AND getting lucky... Variance is a fickle b*tch, and if you disrespect her she'll show you just how harsh she can be. Always be humble, because life is humbling...Quote: ZenKinGYou got a lot to learn buddy.
Of course I do. Your problems start and end with your mistaken belief that you don't.Quote: ZenKinGYou got a lot to learn buddy.
Quote: RomesYour original reply is smitten with problems. It doesn't matter who you are, or how "good" you are, or how hard you work, a little luck goes a long way with anyone. Imagine being that good AND getting lucky... Variance is a fickle b*tch, and if you disrespect her she'll show you just how harsh she can be. Always be humble, because life is humbling...
Funny you say that, what a coincidence. Read my post after your last one. You wont get any humble from me, the more i lose the cockier i get, cause i know just how unlucky i truly am. I see so many average joes get better results than me and im 10x the player they are, not just in blackjack but in life. But it's alright, im used to working twice as hard as the next guy to get the same results. No one will stop me, not in this endeavor and not in life. I actually still wish this was the 80s where they try and backroom you and beat you up, i would take on at least 5 security guards by myself and then come back the next day for more even if they broke my arm. They would need some type of weapon to ever get rid of me. I just would love to see anyone in the casino try to fight me and tell me to leave after backign me off. The hatred i have for this industry is something i cant even express in words.
You fight with the strength of many men.Quote: ZenKinGKeep it coming, no matter all the adversity, no one can still stop me.
I guess all good things must come to an end.
Quote: monet0412Just as I was thinking about 30 pages ago... Fake Post... Fake Player... but a ton of Real advice all through this thread from the Real Life APs!!
How am I a fake player? I logged more hours in the last year than i bet 95% of this forum when it comes to counting.
Logging hours doesn't put food on the table unless you get paid hourly. Obviously you don't:Quote: ZenKinGHow am I a fake player? I logged more hours in the last year than i bet 95% of this forum when it comes to counting.
Quote: ZenKinG700 hours since July 2015 and only up +20,200
You made a tad over $20k in 18 months. I'm not sure what you were doing with the other 2300 hours most people would have worked during those 18 months, but earning less than $13.5k/year won't last very long in Vegas. Or even if you live with your parents.
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
dip dip dip dip dip dip dip dip,
mum mum mum mum mum mum mum mum,
(if you don't know what goes here, look it up...)
Quote: ZenKinGWell just got pounded for 8k in 2 hours playing 1x50-2x250 wonging out at -1. Looks like Vegas is cancelled. I mean this just goes to show how good i really am. What the hell are the chances of this? I mean really, max bet at 2x250 and get cleaned out for 8k playing absolutely perfectly? God bless me, seriously and to make things even better, it couldn't have come at a better time. Just makes me laugh. What is that now, close to 700 hours since July 2015 and only up +20,200? HAHAHA. Even with all the bullshit that has happened to me and with casinos cheating, they still cant beat me, i seriously am blessed, im not even kidding anymore. Can you imagine if i had the same luck as the average counter? Jesus i'd be richer than bill gates by now. Just goes to show you how unfair the world really is. The people who deserve to be rewarded rarely ever do and to make matters worse they get thrown out of the casinos. I was also thrown out a couple of days ago at my favorite store. Keep it coming, no matter all the adversity, no one can still stop me.
Quote: ZenKinGHAHAHA
My thoughts exactly.
Quote: ZenKinGIm done with blackjack for good.
OK, time to move on to the most lucrative AP in the casinos: dice setting.
You really should look into it.
Don't listen to cautionary tales from the nattering nabobs of negativity: they're just jealous of your prowess.
Go get em, tiger!
It's good
Quote: ZenKinGWell just got pounded for 8k in 2 hours playing 1x50-2x250 wonging out at -1. Looks like Vegas is cancelled.
LOL, is anyone shocked to hear this?
For the life of me I can't figure out why anyone would count cards. It's got to be either pure blindness or sheer laziness.Quote: IbeatyouracesThe last time we played in PA we took over $27,000 in only 11.5 hours of play. Card counters are living in the stone age!!
I'm happily retired from those plays and don't mind dg'ing VP for a short time. Been running good :-)
The Ace sequencers I know about were professional bridge players, though there may have been others.Quote: IbeatyouracesWasn't us sequencing.
I'm happily retired from those plays and don't mind dg'ing VP for a short time. Been running good :-)
Quote: ZenKinGWell just got pounded for 8k in 2 hours playing 1x50-2x250 wonging out at -1. Looks like Vegas is cancelled. What the hell are the chances of this? I mean really, max bet at 2x250 and get cleaned out for 8k playing absolutely perfectly?
A B-79 bomber fly by........ ;-)
Spoke to a Las Vegas Vons checkout person. They are renting a 2-bedroom apartment in a 1990s building for $725/month.
----
BJ has it's ups and downs. I had a multi-year losing streak in the 2000s, but I also refused to raise the stakes to get out of the losing streak faster (didn't want the risk). I think most wannabe's in gambling (and stock market) underestimate real-world losing & winning streaks. They do 2x-3x-5x-10x in the early days, before they hit their first major set of losing streaks. Many pros that survive (but don't do really well) are willing to play with 5%/10% RoR...and wonder why their decade-long-record isn't so good.
-8k with 2x250 max bet is only 16-32 max bets (Depending on how you define "max bet", possibly only 4-8 "max bets" if you include double & split)
Kelly betting sounds good in theory, but it gives you a large chance of losing 25-50% of your bankroll quickly. From what I hear, many teams try 1/4-1/2 Kelly (I've never been on a pro BJ team). In the real-world, there are daily expenses, so if a losing streak decreases the bankroll too much, the hourly rate becomes non-workable (or other options become better).
------
The major reason I see many pros play with a high RoR (even higher than Kelly), is they want a higher hourly rate with an insufficient bankroll.
I've seen so many people work their bankroll up to $40K-60K, just to have it vanish next year... Rinse & repeat for next 5-10 years.
Casinos (and the poker players) do pretty well against people who overbet their bankroll.
In the short run (a few months), it feels like they have a better chance for a high hourly rate.
In the medium run (a few years), they usually end up with a much lower hourly rate (which is what Kelly analysis shows...when you overbet Kelly, it will take you longer to make the same amount of money).
-----
It's a strategy that some people recommend for (1) younger people, who don't mind going bankrupt & starting over (2) people with "implied bankroll" (e.g. salary, or lots of Free Play each month) ... and then shifting to a more conservative strategy once you have achieved some target amount (say $100,000 or $1 million).
I first heard the aggressive strategy described for making money in the stock market a few decades ago. Do what you want until you make $100,000. If you lose your stake, make some more money somewhere else, and try again and again. Then when you have $100,000, make sure that no more than 5% of your money is in any one investment (Adjusted for inflation, the target might be $200K or $400K in 2016 dollars).
----
Do you try for "home runs" or "base hits"?
Depending on whether you are a 21-25-yr-old new AP, or a veteran AP, may affect your choices...
There are many ways to win...and also MANY many more ways to lose.
Quote: mamatGuess this is more-or-less useless info now.
Spoke to a Las Vegas Vons checkout person. They are renting a 2-bedroom apartment in a 1990s building for $725/month.
----
BJ has it's ups and downs. I had a multi-year losing streak in the 2000s, but I also refused to raise the stakes to get out of the losing streak faster (didn't want the risk). I think most wannabe's in gambling (and stock market) underestimate real-world losing & winning streaks. They do 2x-3x-5x-10x in the early days, before they hit their first major set of losing streaks. Many pros that survive (but don't do really well) are willing to play with 5%/10% RoR...and wonder why their decade-long-record isn't so good.
-8k with 2x250 max bet is only 16-32 max bets (Depending on how you define "max bet", possibly only 4-8 "max bets" if you include double & split)
Kelly betting sounds good in theory, but it gives you a large chance of losing 25-50% of your bankroll quickly. From what I hear, many teams try 1/4-1/2 Kelly (I've never been on a pro BJ team). In the real-world, there are daily expenses, so if a losing streak decreases the bankroll too much, the hourly rate becomes non-workable (or other options become better).
------
The major reason I see many pros play with a high RoR (even higher than Kelly), is they want a higher hourly rate with an insufficient bankroll.
I've seen so many people work their bankroll up to $40K-60K, just to have it vanish next year... Rinse & repeat for next 5-10 years.
Casinos (and the poker players) do pretty well against people who overbet their bankroll.
In the short run (a few months), it feels like they have a better chance for a high hourly rate.
In the medium run (a few years), they usually end up with a much lower hourly rate (which is what Kelly analysis shows...when you overbet Kelly, it will take you longer to make the same amount of money).
-----
It's a strategy that some people recommend for (1) younger people, who don't mind going bankrupt & starting over (2) people with "implied bankroll" (e.g. salary, or lots of Free Play each month) ... and then shifting to a more conservative strategy once you have achieved some target amount (say $100,000 or $1 million).
I first heard the aggressive strategy described for making money in the stock market a few decades ago. Do what you want until you make $100,000. If you lose your stake, make some more money somewhere else, and try again and again. Then when you have $100,000, make sure that no more than 5% of your money is in any one investment (Adjusted for inflation, the target might be $200K or $400K in 2016 dollars).
----
Do you try for "home runs" or "base hits"?
Depending on whether you are a 21-25-yr-old new AP, or a veteran AP, may affect your choices...
There are many ways to win...and also MANY many more ways to lose.
Appreciate your response and the time you took to write it. I think my main problem has been i have been 'overestimating' my EV. By the way, do you know where he got that $725 price for a 2 bedroom? Doesnt seem to be in a good area if it's that type of price. Also are all or at least some utilities included? I recently found a 1 bedroom or i think it was a studio for around that same price in the arts district by the strip(yes, still a bad area, but seems to have good reviews about safety, etc) that seems to be of good value with most utilities included. It said it was furnished as well and i thought it was a steal, but come to find out it's not furnished. In the $700 range you can get a 1 bedroom in a decent area from what my research has found so far, but a 2 bedroom for $725? Either that person doesnt have any utilities covered at all or it's in a bad area because that's a really good price for a 2 bedroom place in las vegas.
Then add $25 for my dog,$96 for the mandatory technology package, $16 for water, $21 for garbage , administrative fees, etc,etc and my check to the landlord is $1033. That doesn't cover electricity($50-150) and gas ($21 balanced budget plan). Throw in HBO and Netflix and I'm just south of $1200 a month all in in the summer, $1100 in winter.
The young couple next door flipped out when they realized what they were paying. They'd been seduced by the low base rent and ended up getting evicted in three months.
Quote: billryanMy base rent is $825 for a two bedroom. That is what my leasing office will quote you. They advertise that on the websites.
Then add $25 for my dog,$96 for the mandatory technology package, $16 for water, $21 for garbage , administrative fees, etc,etc and my check to the landlord is $1033. That doesn't cover electricity($50-150) and gas ($21 balanced budget plan). Throw in HBO and Netflix and I'm just south of $1200 a month all in in the summer, $1100 in winter.
The young couple next door flipped out when they realized what they were paying. They'd been seduced by the low base rent and ended up getting evicted in three months.
LOL
teliot, I can shed some light on this one as a full AP who hasn't actually counted cards in a while now... Card Counting is something anyone can learn, tonight. You can't learn Hole Carding or Machine Plays or Rebates or Promotions because the vast majority of the time you need to know about the plays/etc to even be aware of them. Card counting is in the main stream light and also has the information on how to do it readily available. Any average joe can go look at my articles, practice, and start counting and earning money from casinos in a short period of time. Now take that same average joe and tell him to start hole carding that game over there... he won't know where to even begin. To start off and NOT start with card counting would be the same as a salmon swimming upstream... Not to mention I think card counting is the perfect entry game for tons of people who've never done any casino AP'ing. It teaches a tremendous amount about variance, patients, work ethic, cover, the sleazy side of how casinos don't really want winners, and so much more.Quote: teliotFor the life of me I can't figure out why anyone would count cards. It's got to be either pure blindness or sheer laziness.
Quote: Henri16Guys, you know something about new gambling site - SlotsCocktail? I heard there is some special good things.
Stop spamming Henri, there's a good chap.
Quote: Henri16Guys, you know something about new gambling site - SlotsCocktail? I heard there is some special good things.
You got a couple answers the first time you asked. Asking again is odd. I suggest you stop there or I will consider it spam.
Actually Babs, the first poster to ask about it was Argentoz. Are you assuming they are the same person? Might not be a bad assumption.Quote: beachbumbabsYou got a couple answers the first time you asked. Asking again is odd. I suggest you stop there or I will consider it spam.
Quote: teliotFor the life of me I can't figure out why anyone would count cards. It's got to be either pure blindness or sheer laziness.
Seeing how I got into counting because of The Blackjack Zone, I don't quite follow you
Re-read chapter 41.Quote: billryanSeeing how I got into counting because of The Blackjack Zone, I don't quite follow you.
Quote: teliotRe-read chapter 41.
It was a long time ago. Book is long gone.
I heard that you get a virus just by even typing SlotsCocktail into you3H@(AYV(Y!H!NB!!BNN###Quote: Henri16Guys, you know something about new gambling site - SlotsCocktail? I heard there is some special good things.
Quote: ZenKinGLooks like Vegas is cancelled. I mean this just goes to show how good i really am.
Confirming what many already believed. All the best in whatever you do, where ever you end up.
IT'S 100% SPAM. It's not just in this thread but another one and it's also on one other forum that I know of.Quote: beachbumbabsYou got a couple answers the first time you asked. Asking again is odd. I suggest you stop there or I will consider it spam.
If there ever was a good reason and time to be Banhammerbabs this it.
Quote: beachbumbabsYou got a couple answers the first time you asked. Asking again is odd. I suggest you stop there or I will consider it spam.
You getting soft for the Holidays? Pure spam.
Quote: Henri16Guys, you know something about new gambling site - SlotsCocktail? I heard there is some special good things.
Nuke for dupe id, previous spammer nuked. Needed to confirm before nuking; his first post was not spam.
Didn't ask. He said he moved from the East coast, and it was cheaper than where he used to live, and a 1990s building, much nicer than his east coast place (a 1970s building). ...so I assumed it was in a decent neighborhood.Quote: ZenKinGBy the way, do you know where he got that $725 price for a 2 bedroom?
I went to Bally's Spa two days ago, but didn't see the attendant who told me studio prices in April ($200 North Las Vegas, $400 better neighborhood, $600 nice neighborhood). He lives in a $400 place. I almost wrote down his building unit in April... Oops. Will check again this week.
I just ask locals.
My suggestion is fly out here for a month, try it out, and you can visit locations in person. Las Vegas really varies in neighborhood quality, and you might get an idea of what you like. A couple friends have stayed in weeklies for $180-200/week ($200-230 with tax). Do that while you scope out Vegas.
I was thinking of buying a house in the Henderson area six years ago...but after 2 years in Vegas, decided to hang out mostly in California.
Prices out there are ridiculously cheap.
Quote: billryanI'm headed out tomorrow to look at a place in Pahrump. It's about an hour drive but I can get a free hot room anytime I want in Vegas.
Prices out there are ridiculously cheap.
It's the side activities out there that will cost you the extra $$'s.
This is all true, every bit of it. And, if you count cards then you will likely be caught, added to a data base and your days as a player will be shortened before you're even out the door. Not to mention the low win rate, high volatility and scarcity of good games.Quote: Romesteliot, I can shed some light on this one as a full AP who hasn't actually counted cards in a while now... Card Counting is something anyone can learn, tonight. You can't learn Hole Carding or Machine Plays or Rebates or Promotions because the vast majority of the time you need to know about the plays/etc to even be aware of them. Card counting is in the main stream light and also has the information on how to do it readily available. Any average joe can go look at my articles, practice, and start counting and earning money from casinos in a short period of time. Now take that same average joe and tell him to start hole carding that game over there... he won't know where to even begin. To start off and NOT start with card counting would be the same as a salmon swimming upstream... Not to mention I think card counting is the perfect entry game for tons of people who've never done any casino AP'ing. It teaches a tremendous amount about variance, patients, work ethic, cover, the sleazy side of how casinos don't really want winners, and so much more.
I understand that for the average Joe, card counting is the brightest shiny object in the room. But on these and other advantage play message boards, with loads of experts on all sorts of areas of advantage play, why is it still all about card counting? The discussions are 20 years old and almost nothing new is discussed.
I'm not a player, and that may make my view slanted. I see what the real players are doing in jurisdictions internationally to crush casinos. I am invested in stopping them. The best game protection advice I can give to a casino (and I give it all the time) is to not bother with card counters, deal deeper through the shoe and remove the "no mid-shoe entry" signs. Card counters cost casinos a lot of money - in lost game protection resources and lost hands-per-hour.
//end rant
I agree with Romes and what he said and I also agree with you said. Other tactics are harder to actually do. However it's significantly better. If the OP's skill was a fraction of his ego he would be sitting pretty.Quote: teliotThis is all true, every bit of it. And, if you count cards then you will likely be caught, added to a data base and your days as a player will be shortened before you're even out the door. Not to mention the low win rate, high volatility and scarcity of good games.Quote: Romesteliot, I can shed some light on this one as a full AP who hasn't actually counted cards in a while now... Card Counting is something anyone can learn, tonight. You can't learn Hole Carding or Machine Plays or Rebates or Promotions because the vast majority of the time you need to know about the plays/etc to even be aware of them. Card counting is in the main stream light and also has the information on how to do it readily available. Any average joe can go look at my articles, practice, and start counting and earning money from casinos in a short period of time. Now take that same average joe and tell him to start hole carding that game over there... he won't know where to even begin. To start off and NOT start with card counting would be the same as a salmon swimming upstream... Not to mention I think card counting is the perfect entry game for tons of people who've never done any casino AP'ing. It teaches a tremendous amount about variance, patients, work ethic, cover, the sleazy side of how casinos don't really want winners, and so much more.
I understand that for the average Joe, card counting is the brightest shiny object in the room. But on these and other advantage play message boards, with loads of experts on all sorts of areas of advantage play, why is it still all about card counting? The discussions are 20 years old and almost nothing new is discussed.
I'm not a player, and that may make my view slanted. I see what the real players are doing in jurisdictions internationally to crush casinos. I am invested in stopping them. The best game protection advice I can give to a casino (and I give it all the time) is to not bother with card counters, deal deeper through the shoe and remove the "no mid-shoe entry" signs. Card counters cost casinos a lot of money - in lost game protection resources and lost hands-per-hour.
//end rant
It's beyond me why he would consider counting further after his 650 hours of mistake free counting.
And of course.... if card counting becomes obsolete, so will Romes ABC guide to counting.
By using techniques that give much larger player edges, you don't need to put in nearly as many hours and might not be seen again in that particular establishment for months or even years.
It's not going anywhere.
I'm not saying CC is great, because compared to other plays, it's about as bad as it gets (okay, $100 UX with a 0.001% advantage is worse). At least for me, it's more like supplemental AP income. Earning an extra $400 in EV per week is an extra $20k a year....not a significant amount, but a nice little chunk.
And for many, BJ CC is strictly supplemental income, where they have a regular 9-5 job, but CC recreationally/hobbily.
I'd say counting card situations are more stable (like video poker without promotions).Quote: RSThat's a big benefit of counting cards, you can do it at any casino anywhere at any time. You don't have to wait for the big promotion weekend, or wait & scout dealers, or any of that other stuff. Sure you still should do your scouting, but it's not as intensive as scouting for the bigger stuff. And you may not find the good stuff for a while.
Still need scouting for (1) penetration (2) game types/hours (3) helpful dealer/pit bosses - conversely dealer & pit bosses to say away from (4) heat (5) whether you want to play solo...or at a full table.
One you've found a decent game, you can put it on a list for future reference.
Then whenever you want, you can go play one of the games on your "good game list".
...not quite, "you can do it at any casino anywhere at any time."
but a lot easier than many other AP strategies (and you can do it solo, without a team).
Counting has a high bankroll requirement for the hourly rate.
It kills not-so-hot APs with sub-$5K bankrolls.
Very cool. Every good player I've met has worked out their own personal approach - what they like, what they avoid. They are all very unique. (At least in my limited experience).Quote: RSAt least for me, it's more like supplemental AP income. Earning an extra $400 in EV per week is an extra $20k a year....not a significant amount, but a nice little chunk.
And for many, BJ CC is strictly supplemental income, where they have a regular 9-5 job, but CC recreationally/hobby.
On the other hand, not-so-hot APs often fit some very basic patterns.
Quote: billryanThrow in HBO and Netflix and I'm just south of $1200 a month all in in the summer, $1100 in winter.
$1,200 a month? Why not $1,200 period?
Add a bit for gen power fuel and you're golden. Unless the value of a studio is worth $10k+ a year to you...