Playing multi-hands when count is really low
November 27th, 2016 at 8:44:55 PM
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Let say you are playing a shoe game heads up, and the count goes really really low. When there is no one else around to eat up the negative count together, is it better to play 2 or 3 hands minimum bet to eat up the card fast or just keep playing one hand til the end of the shoe? If it doesnt affect your hourly wage, i think playing multi hands minimum bet could also be a good cover play. Any thoughts?
November 28th, 2016 at 9:51:53 AM
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If you understand the house edge, TC frequencies, and your spread, then you can calculate your "gain per hand" and see just how much the negative true counts hurt you. Then when you play more than one hand you use the correlated ratios proposed by Thorp, Wong, etc... For example, 2 hands of $100 results in $200 of action... but really the EV is the same as though you placed ONE $150 bet. Read more about this if you do not understand covariance/etc.
So another example... Say you're playing a decent S17 game with a House Edge of .36%. At TC -1, the house advantage is roughly .86% total. On a 6 deck game with average (75%) penetration, TC -1 occurs roughly 13 times per 100 hands (this is your TC frequency). Let's assume the minimum bet you make is $10.
So your Gain Per Hand (TC -1, 1 hand) = (Bet * Frequency) * Advantage = (10*13)*(-.0086) = -$1.12
So if you play down to a TC -1 you will, ON AVERAGE IN THE LONG RUN, lose $1.12 in EV from playing this negative count. *Do note this is how some players maximize their EV by sitting out or leaving in ANY negative count... since if you simply didn't play TC -1, you'd make another $1.12 per hour (by avoiding the negative EV it brings).
If you were to play 2 hands of $10, this would be the same as 1 hand of $15... So what's your average loss in EV now?
Gain Per Hand (TC -1, 2 hands) = (15 * 13) * (-.0086) = -$1.68.
So if you play 2 hands every time you get to a TC -1, to try to "eat" the bad cards, you're going to lose another 56 cents per hour from your EV.
***THIS IS ONLY FOR TC -1. At TC -2, the house edge goes up to approximately 1.36%, and thus would carry more negative EV. So the more negative the TC, the more you're costing yourself from your hourly EV.
In the end my advice would be to sit out (if others are at the table) or to leave if you're alone and hop to another table. If that's not an option then you need to work out just how much each TC is going to cost you hourly and see if you're even still playing with an edge all said and done. If you have a great game/spread and you're making $100/hour and this is going to cost you a "total" (all negative TC's considered) of like -$5/hour, then perhaps it's "worth it" to you to keep your heads up table at $95/hour with only a 5% loss in EV. Then again, perhaps you're a low roller and that extra $5/hour is going to crush your $10/hour EV, resulting in a 50% loss =(. Lots to consider!
My first (of 3) articles gives a great screenshot of an excel document which you can re-create for yourself explaining Gain Per Hand, etc, etc, as discussed above:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
So another example... Say you're playing a decent S17 game with a House Edge of .36%. At TC -1, the house advantage is roughly .86% total. On a 6 deck game with average (75%) penetration, TC -1 occurs roughly 13 times per 100 hands (this is your TC frequency). Let's assume the minimum bet you make is $10.
So your Gain Per Hand (TC -1, 1 hand) = (Bet * Frequency) * Advantage = (10*13)*(-.0086) = -$1.12
So if you play down to a TC -1 you will, ON AVERAGE IN THE LONG RUN, lose $1.12 in EV from playing this negative count. *Do note this is how some players maximize their EV by sitting out or leaving in ANY negative count... since if you simply didn't play TC -1, you'd make another $1.12 per hour (by avoiding the negative EV it brings).
If you were to play 2 hands of $10, this would be the same as 1 hand of $15... So what's your average loss in EV now?
Gain Per Hand (TC -1, 2 hands) = (15 * 13) * (-.0086) = -$1.68.
So if you play 2 hands every time you get to a TC -1, to try to "eat" the bad cards, you're going to lose another 56 cents per hour from your EV.
***THIS IS ONLY FOR TC -1. At TC -2, the house edge goes up to approximately 1.36%, and thus would carry more negative EV. So the more negative the TC, the more you're costing yourself from your hourly EV.
In the end my advice would be to sit out (if others are at the table) or to leave if you're alone and hop to another table. If that's not an option then you need to work out just how much each TC is going to cost you hourly and see if you're even still playing with an edge all said and done. If you have a great game/spread and you're making $100/hour and this is going to cost you a "total" (all negative TC's considered) of like -$5/hour, then perhaps it's "worth it" to you to keep your heads up table at $95/hour with only a 5% loss in EV. Then again, perhaps you're a low roller and that extra $5/hour is going to crush your $10/hour EV, resulting in a 50% loss =(. Lots to consider!
My first (of 3) articles gives a great screenshot of an excel document which you can re-create for yourself explaining Gain Per Hand, etc, etc, as discussed above:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
