Bankroll Question

Hi everyone,

After reading some about blackjack, I've decided it might be wise to migrate some of my video poker play to blackjack: the return is higher and the variance is less.

The environment: our local tribal options feature 3:2 blackjack with what I consider "okay" rules (0.6% HA or so). Table minimums start at $10 and are $25 for DD. There are $15 six- and eight-deck options available.

I'd like to know if you would consider me bankrolled at a 1% RoR for a 5:1 spread for the following levels of play:

$10 1000 units 0.60% HA 1-5 unit spread
$15 670 units 0.60% HA 1-5 unit spread
$25 400 units 0.50% HA 1-4 unit spread

These are fairly narrow spreads, but the cameras are leery and people have had problems spreading further than is suggested here. Also assumed is good strategy (Hi-Lo, indices, betting ramps as above). Do you think these situations are playable at the risk level mentioned above? Thanks for any help!

Hey jsm,

Are you saying you have a $10k bankroll? So at the $10 tables you have 1,000 units? If so then I do believe you're playing below a 1% RoR. In my 3rd article I show how you can reverse engineer EV over X hands to show the 3SD min/max you will lose in the long run, and how you can apply that to your bankroll for RoR considerations.

1) If you want to be a very serious counter, and make any kind of decent money, I'd suggest revamping your spreads drastically. With a .6% HE game (so upping your bet at TC +2) and a 1-5 spread, I'm showing the following:

$10 ($10-$50) ~ $5.00/hour
$15 ($15-$75) ~ $6.50/hour
$25 ($25-$100) ~ $7.50/hour ...only due to the .5% HE instead of .6%

Note that this is wonging out at anything less than TC -1, and having your bet raised at TC +2 and you MAX BET at TC +3.

Also, you haven't touched on the 2nd most important playing condition (2nd to heat)... Which is Penetration. You might find the 8 deck games only cut off 1 deck, while the DD and $25 games give terrible penetration. Be sure to read up and understand penetration and that might drive you to which category you're going to play in, unless penetration is the same at all of the different games. I'd certainly rather play the .6% game with 90% PEN than the .5% DD game with 50% PEN.

2) If you're just trying to play for fun and to not lose money and maybe get some free food and mailers, then I would say you're in a good spot to do so with the bankroll/spread above.

Quote: jsm

Hi everyone,

After reading some about blackjack, I've decided it might be wise to migrate some of my video poker play to blackjack: the return is higher and the variance is less.

Assuming you are comparing card counting to VP. If by return you mean percentage? You should be getting a better percentage on VP or you're missing something. I suggest people look for 2% or better when playing VP unless you're well bankrolled and have nothing better to do. There's obviously some exceptions to that. Obviously playing something like a $5 9/6 with something adding 1.5 % would definitely be something to jump on.

Quote: AxelWolf

Assuming you are comparing card counting to VP. If by return you mean percentage? You should be getting a better percentage on VP or you're missing something. I suggest people look for 2% or better when playing VP unless you're well bankrolled and have nothing better to do. There's obviously some exceptions to that. Obviously playing something like a $5 9/6 with something adding 1.5 % would definitely be something to jump on.

Oh I wish. And I play quarters. There is a progressive machine that is usually above 100%, but not by much (< 1%) and they're taken most of the time. An okay slot club makes things a little better than even, but the variance is high and I'd like to step off the roller coaster for now.

By the way, penetration at these venues is two-thirds or so. I wrote in low spreads because the cameras and the floor are quite leery and I am not sure if they'd honor the kind of action that I could give within my financial parameters (1:10 spread at the $10 level).

JSM,

You can Wong in and Wong out of these shoe games is that right? Your risk of ruin shouldn't be a problem and you can really tailor what your win rate and hourly swings to be like and get comfortable before changing anything. This allows for fewer rounds of Blackjack that need to be played compared to playing through entire shoes and having to risk going bust at a much higher rate.