fletcher+ acefive

Hi Michael
This is Simon from Melbourne again ,recently I've read an article written
by Greg fletcher in blackjack (fletcher formula),just wanted to know your
idea about it,it's very similar to flat betting the way I've tried lots
of card counting system most of the time they work but still there are some
times that even though count is high but still dealer wins and it's really
annoying ( card counting does not work all the time),is there anyway to
overcome this problem ? I've tried your ace and five card counting it's
simple and effective,now I'm trying ace five card counting with fletcher
system ,what do u think ? Good combination? I've tried it on an application
(21 sim) lots of the time it worked ,been to crown 3 times and each time
won but not much 30,55,70 dollars.
just wanna know your idea about it,tnx for your time.

Hi Simon79, and welcome to the forums.

Card counting does work all the time... the problem is you're playing for the long run, not any 1 particular night.

In a high count you're not much more likely to win your next hand. The reason the game is profitable is because of all the extra options you have...

1) You get paid 150% for your blackjacks, the dealer does not.
2) You can put more money on the table in good positions, such as splitting and doubling.
3) In a higher count the dealer will bust slightly more often... You don't have to hit your poor hands when you're not supposed to (16 stands to dealer 10 in any positive count, for example).

I haven't had a chance to read the article you're referring to... Perhaps you could post it for us to review? There are a lot of very good blackjack players and mathematical minds on this site that could give you very valuable feedback.

Also, I would recommend you read the A-Z blackjack articles hosted on this very site:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Hi tnx for your comments,i am agree with you about playing long time can cause more loss but i always play basic strategy regarding to the rules and number of decks (exactly what wizard recommend),and play flawless according to count,but still not 100 percent win it hapens most of the time but not always,anyway the article i was talking about can be found in:

(just search in google fletcher balckjacj system it will pop up)

Please use punctuation. I tried to work out what you were asking but gave up as it was one big run-on wall of text.

Quote: simon79

Hi tnx for your comments,i am agree with you about playing long time can cause more loss but i always play basic strategy regarding to the rules and number of decks (exactly what wizard recommend),and play flawless according to count,but still not 100 percent win it hapens most of the time but not always...

There is NO system that wins 100% of the time... Otherwise why would the casino still offer the game. Even drunk idiots who don't even play basic strategy still sometimes win, and the house has a HUGE edge on them, now why do you think that is?

Simon, basic strategy wasn't developed to win 100% of the time. It wasn't even developed to WIN AT ALL over the long run of the game. It's simply the best way you can play while playing against the BUILT IN house edge of the game. Basic strategy isn't supposed to win. Anyone that knows anything about blackjack knows that.

So simon of course sent me a link to this Fletcher System... Some thoughts for the rest of you guys:

1) As thought, it's a completely bunk system that the first 20 pages of the 168 PDF explanation is all about what it doesn't do and what it does do while of course not telling you how it actually does anything. It's just fluff. "You'll win 90%+ time!" Hell, this is the FIRST THING I saw when opening the PDF: "A System So Powerful That Anyone Using It Can Turn $11 Into $50,000 in Just 11 Hours!"

2) Makes fun of real card counting saying no one does it and anyone left says you have to have a massive bankroll for any kind of respectable win (which is true if you have any clue what Risk of Ruin is).

3) Next, he gives us some GREAT examples:

"Here are a few examples –
If you start with a $110 buy-in, you will double it in less than 20 minutes playing
online!
A $25 bettor will win $143 every ten minutes he plays online.
The Fletcher Formula © 2013 Silverthorne Publications All Rights Reserved
8
A $100 bettor, playing online, will win an astounding $3,435 an hour!"

Do notice you NEVER hear about how this happens... That's just like me saying: Guys, mail me a check for $1,000 and I'm sure you'll get lucky enough to somehow win $10,000! IT WORKS! JUST DO IT! There's literally zero merit to any of these.

4) When talking with his old college professor he asked if he believed what Ed Thorp believed (effect of card removal... REAL math to the game) and his response was "I believe that the right betting strategy can win at blackjack and … " This right here tells you this "system" is complete bullshit. No betting system will ever change the house edge, simply change your expected LOSS. The more you bet, the more you expect to lose. That simple.

5) The betting is based around making 3 bets, pumping the bet to the right of the winning bet up, or when a bet loses taking it away until they're all gone and restarting. It's ridiculous and has zero mathematical basis and I will be anyone money it does not work.

I could go on and on and on... God this paper is complete fluff with zero substance and zero effort put towards showing how anything can realistically get mathematically accomplished. I hate things like this because it's a complete bunk piece of crap that is literally just trying to steal money from unsuspecting people that want to play the game better. This "system" teaches them nothing, makes them play WORSE, and in my opinion literally robs them.

Guys, all you need is a $12,500 bankroll to make ~$2k/hour at a real table, or ~$8600/hour online!!!