Opinions

Some on here might know me from BJTF. And as I've posted before, ive made claims that Harrahs in Philly has been cheating me. Just to be clear this is not another whining thread as I haven't played there since. What I would like to know, is the likelihood of me getting cheated. Yes I know, this isnt the 60s or the 70s when the mafia ran the casinos and cheating is not very likely anymore. But let me tell you this and spit out some data i've had there. to. My wong in spread is 2x50 at +1 and 2x250 at +5, and for the past 15 hours of play at Harrahs in Philly it has resulted in me losing -13,700. Im also mostly a backcount player and would say 90% of the time I backcount and wong in at an advantage of .50% at +1 and max bet at + 5. The rest of the time I play heads up table minimum $15 or $25 tables and wong out aggressively at -1.

The rules they offer there are S17, DAS, LS and about 1 deck cutoff on a 6 deck game so it's a VERY favorable shoe game. I use Wong Halves with close to Full indices. I pretty much know every positive index and i dont play anything lower than -1 so i dont worry about the -2 and lower indices. Im down close to 14k and according to CVCX, that puts me at -2.85 Standard deviations down with a 0.22% chance of this happening. My expected win should have been 2500 for whatever that's worth. Im not complaining about not being at EV because I know 15 hours is such a short time, but im complaining about being behind so much that im nearly outside of the bell curve and more than 3 SD.

Now let me hear your opinions, yes i know blackjack is full of variance and 15 hours is nothing, but when you see results like this with a 0.20% chance of happening, what am I supposed to think? This has been completely bizarre and ive literally had close to -3SD in 4 of the 5 trips in the last 15 hours of playing time. I've lost nearly every max bet shoe i've played in. My game is solid and I have no doubts in my game that I've been playing badly. I am always disciplined with my bets as well and never overbet. I pretty much stick to it by the book every single time I play, but have now become very frustrated and feel the need to share this with the forum to hear some opinions of what's going on.

So with that being said, what are the chances ive been cheated? Has anyone else had similar runs at a particular store in a short amount of time like this? Someone please put me at ease that I havent been cheated because I would hate to find out all my hard work has been destroyed by this rigged store. Ive played about 500 hours for the year and am up 12k, but because of this nearly -14k downswing at this one store, im underperforming EV which should be around 30-35k for the year at the least.

I already filed a complaint to the gaming commission about Harrahs Philly as well but because they want to meet with me in person, i didnt answer them back because I dont want my face to be outed to the casino as I dont trust the PA commission or any commission at all.

First of all, without checking your calculations, your numbers appear contradictory. You say you are 2.85 standard deviations to the bad, then you say your results had an 0.2% chance of happening. Three SD off has, if memory serves, a 2.7% chance of happening--a bit less than 1 in 40. 0.2% is 1 in 500.

Whatever the exact numbers are, though, I'm sure others here will tell you that your results, while certainly unlucky, are not all that unusual, and certainly not unusual enough to suspect that you have been cheated. You have to learn to not only accept, but expect results like this.

im going by what CVCX tells me. And no 3 SD means 99.7% of something happening meaning .30%

Pardon me for asking, but what the hell does 15 hours have to do with anything. If you are wonging in, seems you should be able to state I played x hands at +1. x hands at +2. etc. How many hands played as cover ?
How many hands did you have the opportunity to take insurances ? ( 30% of your profit should be from that ).
Saying 15 hours is like asking what size shoes the elevator operator was wearing.

Basing your expected win on 500 hours seems a little flaky too.

Are you noticing anything shady about the dealers or procedure or is it simply the losing result? A negative 3 standard deviation happens sometimes. It is hard to cheat on a shoe game unless they have a prism or cold deck of some sort. A short shoe( missing some high cards) is also possible but also really unlikely.

In this modern era it is rare from most people's accounts. Dealing seconds on hand held games was a problem in the past but probably not relevant to the situation.

Quote: LoneW0LF

im going by what CVCX tells me. And no 3 SD means 99.7% of something happening meaning .30%

Yes, I misquoted the numbers. But there's still a discrepancy between your saying that the result you experienced was an 0.2% probability and your experiencing -2.85 standard deviations, which would be more than an 0,3% chance.

In any event, results within those parameters aren't all that unusual. Whatever your CVCX is "telling" you, it's just that you experienced a relatively rare event, not that you were cheated. You can't draw any inferences or conclusions from those results alone. Your sample size is MUCH too small for it to be representative.

Quote: LoneW0LF

im complaining about being behind so much that im nearly outside of the bell curve and more than 3 SD.

Arnold Snyder sympathizes with you

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

Do you think this store is cheating you or just cheating everyone? If it is just you and that means that there are some very lowly paid employees in on this. At some point one of them will be disgruntled and blow the whole scheme. Dust I think the odds of this just being bad luck or substantially greater than the odds of you being cheated.

the point is, my opinion is that the dealers dont know or any pit boss. They are cheating by stacking the deck and no dealer or pit boss ever sees the cards. They also can be manipulating the shuffle machine. Im very skeptical of the ASMs. Something just very bizarre so far at harrahs. Ever since they introduced the 6 deck games, ive been getting murdered.

So my next question and shouldve been more clear in my OP. What are the chances a casino would stack the deck and use an imbalanced deck or possibly rig the ASMs?

I'm there most days and was there two days ago- it's not happening- I'll post up any amount you want- if you want to wager on it! and willing to file with gaming under my name!!!!

Quote: odiousgambit

Arnold Snyder sympathizes with you

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

I love that article it's probably the first article any aspiring BJ player should read and carry around with them.

you're saying theyre not cheating? How much have you won there?

I know people that have won in lower 5 figures there.

Quote: LoneW0LF

you're saying theyre not cheating? How much have you won there?

That's meaningless and you should know that. Did you read that article...YOU will lose?

People run super bad sometimes and people run super good sometimes. I remember hearing a story about some guy hitting Mega Bucks a few times.

If 2 people were flipping a coin and someone won 15 times in a row he wouldn't think he was being cheated, but the other guy might think we was.

But if they're cheating ,you shouldn't win unless they're only cheating a little bit. Lol

Not going to discuss numbers but there was a major play there a few weeks back and it ran perfectly normal and right st expectTion over multiple tables over hours as well

Well im playing a flawless game and im down close to 3SD there.

It happens- I went 6 Royal cycles in the past without hitting a royal I've been at harrahs philly more then dozens of times this year and have never seen anything abnormal at all. They even let the promotion to the entire time without flagging or cutting anyone at all.

You are just running bad- I know sometimes it's hard to believe it I say the same things sometimes on video poker after missing quad aces 6 times on ten play when getting dealt trips or bricking 7 games of 10 play ux getting dealt 4 to a royal

you seem to be talking about other games in your posts. Im talking strictly blackjack. My feeling is they're rigging the deck at harrahs philly or manipulating the asms to clump.

No I'm speaking of blackjack

There was a promotion there-
I also have two friends that currently or have counted there and not had any statistical abnormalities

I guess what I should ask is this then. Have you ever had stores you just couldn't beat? Have you ever had a store you were close to 3SD down in whatever emount of hours you played there?

I'm sure there are many people that have had downswings like that on this forum

I think something everyone is missing is the 15 hours... That needs to be harped on more. In the shorter run you're going to be more subject to variance and thus more subject to hitting those extreme highs and lows (3SD's). Yes, you're quite far out to the left, but you know what that means at this point? Not a whole lot really... Go log another 35 hours and assuming 100 hands per hour then you'll have 5k hands and not much but at least "some" form of reliable non short term data.

Bottom line is with 15 hours, I could draw dramatically wild conclusions for both sides. You need more data.

Quote: Romes

I think something everyone is missing is the 15 hours... That needs to be harped on more. In the shorter run you're going to be more subject to variance and thus more subject to hitting those extreme highs and lows (3SD's). Yes, you're quite far out to the left, but you know what that means at this point? Not a whole lot really... Go log another 35 hours and assuming 100 hands per hour then you'll have 5k hands and not much but at least "some" form of reliable non short term data.

Bottom line is with 15 hours, I could draw dramatically wild conclusions for both sides. You need more data.

My wong in spread is 2x50 at +1 and 2x250 at +5, and for the past 15 hours of play at Harrahs in Philly it has resulted in me losing -13,700. Im also mostly a backcount player and would say 90% of the time I backcount and wong in at an advantage of .50% at +1 and max bet at + 5. The rest of the time I play heads up table minimum $15 or $25 tables and wong out aggressively at -1.


Does not seem to imply ( or is it infer ) 100 hands per hour.

Quote: 487tracydrive

...Does not seem to imply ( or is it infer ) 100 hands per hour.

I'm actually giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's actually getting 100 hands per hour for the 15 hours of play he has recorded. Very unlikely he has more than that if he mostly wongs in... Thus, I'm rounding him "up" so to say and still find he doesn't have enough data.

Quote: Romes

I'm actually giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's actually getting 100 hands per hour for the 15 hours of play he has recorded. Very unlikely he has more than that if he mostly wongs in... Thus, I'm rounding him "up" so to say and still find he doesn't have enough data.

Hands observed count towards the 100 hands/rounds per hour. Norm and Don have harped on this issue multiple times and CVCX was made to count hands 'observed' as part of the hands/rounds per hour figure. You're simply observing let's say 80% of the disadvantage rounds and playing 20% of the positive rounds. If you're not backcounting you're playing 80% disadvantage rounds and playing 20% of positive rounds. Backcounting does not hurt your EV when considering 100 hands/rounds an hour, it only helps it.

Quote: LoneW0LF

Hands observed count towards the 100 hands/rounds per hour...

Quite right. Unless he's back counting 2 tables I'll still wager he's not seeing 100 hands per hour.

the OP was me in this thread and it was my other handle and if the admin can go ahead and delete that username, it would be great. But Romes, how many rounds per hour do you think im getting if i mostly backcount and jump in at +1? I think I have been overestimating my EV because im only up 25k after about 550 hours in my log and that puts me around a little bit worse than -1 SD at 100 rd/hr.. Maybe I'm only getting 60-80? That would make my SD much better.

Hmm, really depends ZK. If you're back counting 2 tables then you could be getting over 100 hands per hour. Though, if you're jumping in at TC +1, then that must be "somewhat" frequently. This would mean you go down to only one table and one round for a few hands then possibly jump out? I'm sure you've experienced jumping in at TC +1 would result in a lot of playing 1 or 2 rounds and the count going negative. Do you wong out when this happens, or continue down through TC -1 let's say? All of these things will effect your hands per hour...

If you jumped in at TC +2, that would keep you on the table longer as it would take another round or two for the TC to go down (usually). HOWEVER, you must remember that if you do this then your TC +1 gain per hand is 0 for the hands you watch but don't play with the TC +1. I'm also assuming you're playing S17 games where TC +1 is advantageous to the player. Otherwise, I'd most certainly encourage you to wait to jump in until TC +2.

When doing a lot of wonging in, it can definitely be tough to estimate hands per hour. All I could really recommend is to play 5-10 sessions and really try to keep an exact count of hands played. Then you can base your estimations off of that moving forward. Do keep in mind that 1SD isn't proof of anything abnormal. If you are getting ~70 hands per hour instead, after 550 hours that would be ~38,500... Not exactly the long run but certainly on its way. Usually the 50k mark, and much more reliably the 100k hand mark are the tell tale you're looking for.

Yea S17, DAS, LS games . I have about a .50% advtg at +1 and the N0 is a bit shorter playing at +1 than coming in at +2. The win rate is also higher at +1. Of course the SD is a bit higher, but ill suck that up since i have the bankroll to support it. Yea I basically play a pure wong game. I jump in at +1 and out at 0.5 or 0. I also play heads up occasionally if i cant find a good table to wong in due to crowded conditions. I play all heads up games with aggressive wonging out and anytime it reaches -1, im out of there and on to a new heads up table. I basically make the pit bosses lose their minds lol and i dont care if im being obvious or bringing attention to myself. Im just out there to maximize my EV as i grow my bankroll.

Quote: ZenKinG

the OP was me in this thread and it was my other handle and if the admin can go ahead and delete that username.

Blony1789
Blony1789
Joined:Nov 23, 2016Threads: 1Posts: 5November 23rd, 2016 at 7:26:35 AMpermalink
A few days ago I was playing at a casino on the east coast (I won't mention any names).


ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined:May 3, 2016Threads: 4Posts: 18November 24th, 2016 at 11:09:18 PMpermalink
Yea the OP must be edited. Ill be sending the admin beachbums a PM as well.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Nov 24, 2016.

Can someone explain this as well?

I dont know what you're getting at, i was simply saying the OP(original post) must be edited. Are you trying to imply Bony is also me? lol. Well it's not , my only two names were LoneWoLF and this. And I already asked the admin to delete my old lonewolf name that i had createdi n the past before i was banned from blackjacktheforum.