Am I drifting into the no fly zone?

I've won substantially now on my last 4 blackjack outings. I had already mastered basic strategy and have been working really hard at counting cards without appearing to count. I've created a much simpler way for me to count which accounts for the entire hand versus +/- observance and allows for easier deck dividing counts. But, I think I made a mistake.

Yesterday, I had a couple of big bets that I protected by hitting on the hard 17. Both came up with 4 and 3 for 21/20. After the second one, I could feel the eyes on me. So, I purposely lost some small and middle end bets. I even commented well my wife always says I make a few stupid plays now and then. I'm glad it worked out on the good side this time.

My concern is when they shout out "hitting on a hard 17" is that a camera surveillance nod? And, should I protect my bets, especially if they are large? Do I need to stay clear of hitting on hard 17s (even if I only do this once or twice per session?)

I just don't want to be flat betted or kicked from the tables.

They shouted that to protect themselves from angle shooting. And no counter would ever hit hard 17.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

They shouted that to protect themselves from angle shooting. And no counter would ever hit hard 17.

Thanks for the explanation and yes, this one did.

Two common plays you'll hear dealers shout out are "doubling hard 12" and "splitting 10's" as well.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

....And no counter would ever hit hard 17.

+1

Wanna know if you're drifting to the no fly zone?

1) What was the table rules and resulting house edge?
2) What was the penetration?
3) What is your bankroll?
4) What is your bet spread per true count?
5) How many deviations do you know?

Give me those and I can let you know almost exactly what the casino thinks.

Quote: JoelDeze

I've won substantially now on my last 4 blackjack outings. I had already mastered basic strategy and have been working really hard at counting cards without appearing to count. I've created a much simpler way for me to count which accounts for the entire hand versus +/- observance and allows for easier deck dividing counts. But, I think I made a mistake.

Yesterday, I had a couple of big bets that I protected by hitting on the hard 17. Both came up with 4 and 3 for 21/20. After the second one, I could feel the eyes on me. So, I purposely lost some small and middle end bets. I even commented well my wife always says I make a few stupid plays now and then. I'm glad it worked out on the good side this time.

My concern is when they shout out "hitting on a hard 17" is that a camera surveillance nod? And, should I protect my bets, especially if they are large? Do I need to stay clear of hitting on hard 17s (even if I only do this once or twice per session?)

I just don't want to be flat betted or kicked from the tables.

you need to have your own thread JoelDeze wins at everything and just keep posting under that thread.

What I don't understand is that the count has to be really bad to be hitting hard 17....So why the hell did you have your big bets out ? *Shrug*

Unless things have changed, cameras don't pick up vocals. Dealers call out stupid plays so when they backfire on t h e player.they are covered.

Quote: AxelWolf

you need to have your own thread JoelDeze wins at everything and just keep posting under that thread.

What I don't understand is that the count has to be really bad to be hitting hard 17....So why the hell did you have your big bets out ? *Shrug*

It wasn't. I just got a bad break. But I true count 3s and 4s just in case I have to protect my hand. That's why I only do that once or twice per shoe. And, I don't win at everything. I win over time. I haven't played blackjack for a long time but I've always done well when playing. I started playing again about 3 months ago and wanted to practice counting. I read some very good information on here from Romes and others and mixed up my sessions a bit. If I was doing poorly at craps I'd go play Blackjack. And, vice versa. But, I'm starting to get much better with my counting technique and so I believe I'm getting closer to where I like to be. I just don't want to mess things up since I only have one or two casinos close by.

Quote: JoelDeze

It wasn't. I just got a bad break. But I true count 3s and 4s just in case I have to protect my hand. That's why I only do that once or twice per shoe. And, I don't win at everything. I win over time. I haven't played blackjack for a long time but I've always done well when playing. I started playing again about 3 months ago and wanted to practice counting. I read some very good information on here from Romes and others and mixed up my sessions a bit. If I was doing poorly at craps I'd go play Blackjack. And, vice versa. But, I'm starting to get much better with my counting technique and so I believe I'm getting closer to where I like to be. I just don't want to mess things up since I only have one or two casinos close by.

IF you can influence the dice and beat sports there's no reason to do anything else but bet sports, play craps and enjoy life. Zero reason to count card's.

I would compare it to a millionaire robbing a 7-Eleven

Don't argue with the smart guys.
You might find yourself in over your head Wolfie ;-)

Quote: Romes

+1

Wanna know if you're drifting to the no fly zone?

1) What was the table rules and resulting house edge?
2) What was the penetration?
3) What is your bankroll?
4) What is your bet spread per true count?
5) How many deviations do you know?

Give me those and I can let you know almost exactly what the casino thinks.

1. Below...
$25 table, 8-deck shoe
Dealer Shuffle
$1k max / $200 max dealer match
Mid Shoe entry allowed
Surrender - DSA no RSA
All pairs except for aces can be split 3 times.

2. 75% to 85%.

3. 1k-2k.

4. 5x.

5. 4.

Doubtful you had an edge in this game.

Quote: JoelDeze

1. Below...
$25 table, 8-deck shoe
Dealer Shuffle
$1k max / $200 max dealer match
Mid Shoe entry allowed
Surrender - DSA no RSA
All pairs except for aces can be split 3 times.

2. 75% to 85%.

3. 1k-2k.

4. 5x.

5. 4.

Just looking at your answers... Your Risk of Ruin (RoR) is probably 100%. When you say "5x" for number 4, do you mean every time the TC goes up 1 you 5x your base bet? So example: TC 0 = 1 unit, TC 1 = 5 units, TC 2 = 10 units, TC 3 = 15 units, etc? If so, what's your actual max? 20 units? 30 units?

Quote: Romes

Just looking at your answers... Your Risk of Ruin (RoR) is probably 100%. When you say "5x" for number 4, do you mean every time the TC goes up 1 you 5x your base bet? So example: TC 0 = 1 unit, TC 1 = 5 units, TC 2 = 10 units, TC 3 = 15 units, etc? If so, what's your actual max? 20 units? 30 units?

No.

My max is always the table max.

On a $25 table I have a base of $25 to $125 (5x fluctuating).

On TC1 I remove $25 and have a new base of $50-$150.

On TC2 I remove $25 and have a new base of $75-$175.

I try to fluctuate between amounts so I don't look like I'm high maxing.

I deviate slightly on TC4. I throw a 75%-100% max bet in after this point. If I win I go to min which is $125 at this point.

Taking the "averages" of your TC "ranges" your spread appears as follows:

TC 0 = $75
TC 1 = $100
TC 2 = $125
TC 3 = $150
TC 4 = $850? (You said your max is table max, and that you bet 75%-100% of max at TC 4 and above).

Does this seem 'moderately' accurate?

So you're saying if you bet a near table max bet and win, you drop to $125 irregardless of the TC?

Also, you stated you have a dedicated $2k bankroll to blackjack, and yet you bet upwards of $1k per hand on your max bet? Did you confuse this with session bankroll? What is the TOTAL amount of money dedicated to counting cards?

Quote: Romes

Taking the "averages" of your TC "ranges" your spread appears as follows:

TC 0 = $75
TC 1 = $100
TC 2 = $125
TC 3 = $150
TC 4 = $850? (You said your max is table max, and that you bet 75%-100% of max at TC 4 and above).

Does this seem 'moderately' accurate?

So you're saying if you bet a near table max bet and win, you drop to $125 irregardless of the TC?

Also, you stated you have a dedicated $2k bankroll to blackjack, and yet you bet upwards of $1k per hand on your max bet? Did you confuse this with session bankroll? What is the TOTAL amount of money dedicated to counting cards?

Hi Romes,

Yes, that is accurate as far as mins. And, I fluctuate between the 5x unit mark within those brackets using $25 units.

As far as the other questions let me start by saying I am no where near an expert at Blackjack. I retain a lot of information, practice much of it, deviate some as I find things that work better for me and I try to simplify counting until I get better at doing it.

If I win the large max I've covered much of the progression I would have done progressing. I also don't want to top off my betting and show up on the radar. If you say that won't happen and I can do it differently I'll be happy to do so.

I have a $2k bank roll but it is actually split between Blackjack and Craps for the day. If I'm not playing craps at all I dedicate it all to Blackjack.

$1k is dedicated to cards but I can go up to $2k, if needed.

Okay, since those are the averages of your 5x unit mark within those brackets, let's take those as your "average" spread and plug them in...

You didn't mention if the game is H17 or S17?

All I can do is smh. I want to believe parts of this thread but just can't believe any counter would max bet and then hit a 17

Quote: Wizardofnothing

All I can do is smh. I want to believe parts of this thread but just can't believe any counter would max bet and then hit a 17

Maybe he learned from T3 and its side counting every rank!

Then his screen name should be rain man

I'll admit that I've hit 17 vs 10 twice. But both were high negative counts. One turned into a winner from a loser, the other busted which would've lost anyway. I believe the index play for 17 vs A is -4 TC.

Right but you wouldn't have your max bets out

Or pretty much ever bet 100 on match the dealer

Obviously this is a joke.

That's pretty much what I thought

Quote: SM777

Obviously this is a joke.

Where is Gordon when the question needs to be asked again?

Quote: SM777

Obviously this is a joke.

+1

Sort of.

Lightning can strike.

But hitting 17? Having big bets out there at a time when that might be a good idea? Seems more like a tall tale.

This post/thread is seven pounds of hooey. First, as has been pointed out, anybody who is counting cards and has a big bet out would NEVER be hitting a hard 17. It is possible sometimes to be hitting a hard 17 when the count is highly negative and the dealer is showing an Ace.

Let's say that the OP WAS counting 3s and 4s and had somehow divined that the deck, despite having gone strongly positive, was loaded with them little puppies. Wouldn't that increase the chances of the dealer having a stiff, thus mandating standing on that hard 17?

Also, the OP claims to have been operating with a $2000 bankroll, which would be ridiculously insufficient given his reported bet sizes. Sorry, but not only is this a fairy tale, it's an implausible fairy tale.

Quote: beachbumbabs

+1

Sort of.

Lightning can strike.

But hitting 17? Having big bets out there at a time when that might be a good idea? Seems more like a tall tale.

First of all, I don't tell stories that are untrue. If people want to second guess everything I say or do that's really up to them.

I asked a simple question and received a simple answer + an entire thread response questioning everything I did. I provided answers that were truthful and I don't necessarily need to respond to them or even this one.

I do my best to treat others with respect and I would appreciate it if others did the same. What I've learned from my short time on here is that many of the people here are part of the "can't do" crowd. If they can't understand or comprehend something they lash out.

It's rather unfortunate that some intelligent people can be obtuse and closed minded.

Ok I'll give you benefit of the doubt

If.... You are counting why were you playing 100 dollars on match the dealer?

Quote: JoelDeze

First of all, I don't tell stories that are untrue. If people want to second guess everything I say or do that's really up to them.

I asked a simple question and received a simple answer + an entire thread response questioning everything I did. I provided answers that were truthful and I don't necessarily need to respond to them or even this one.

I do my best to treat others with respect and I would appreciate it if others did the same. What I've learned from my short time on here is that many of the people here are part of the "can't do" crowd. If they can't understand or comprehend something they lash out.

It's rather unfortunate that some intelligent people can be obtuse and closed minded.

It's a pretty tired rhetorical trick--probably going back to the days of ancient Athens--to say that those who point out the logical fallacies in your arguments are "obtuse and closed minded" (that term should be hyphenated BTW). Also, it isn't exactly respectful--a concept that apparently is significant to you--to characterize those who disagree with you that way. You stated a virtual impossibility--or at least a gross logical contradiction--that you were counting cards, had big bets out, and found a reason to hit a hard 17. Sorry, that simply doesn't make sense. It's not a matter of argument. It's akin to a baseball player claiming that he hits home runs by closing his eyes and swinging where he thinks the ball is going to be. Now, THAT'S obtuse.

As you're new to these forums, you should keep in mind that they are inundated with posts where people are claiming various and sundry ways to beat this game or that, "systems," etc. etc. I'm sorry, but what you said is patently ridiculous, and while I am just barely willing to believe that you did talk yourself into hitting those hard 17s a couple of times, I am not willing to believe that any sane counting system would warrant your doing so at any time when you had big bets out. IF your system accounted for every single card by rank (as some blackjack computers can do), then it MIGHT be theoretically possible that there would be a situation where that play was warranted. But humans can't keep track of every single card in a shoe (and even if they could, the shoe would never be dealt so deep as to enable you to make decisions like that). Furthermore, as I pointed out, even if the deck WAS highly positive yet abundant in 3s and 4s, wouldn't it make sense to play for one of those cards being the dealer's down card rather than the next card off the top of the deck??

Bottom line: you could be telling the truth. But if you are, and such plays are indeed part of your system, you're playing at a huge disadvantage. Your reported bankroll size, being about 5% of what it should be given your betting criteria, suggests that you are not playing blackjack at a professional level. That's fine, of course. But your stories of hitting hard 17s successfully have only anecdotal value.

Quote: JoelDeze

First of all, I don't tell stories that are untrue. If people want to second guess everything I say or do that's really up to them.

I asked a simple question and received a simple answer + an entire thread response questioning everything I did. I provided answers that were truthful and I don't necessarily need to respond to them or even this one.

I do my best to treat others with respect and I would appreciate it if others did the same. What I've learned from my short time on here is that many of the people here are part of the "can't do" crowd. If they can't understand or comprehend something they lash out.

It's rather unfortunate that some intelligent people can be obtuse and closed minded.

No disrespect was intended. Still seems unlikely this was more than a psych hit. I enjoy both the discussion you bring and how you tell it. Would prefer you not get defensive and accusatory when you tell something a bit sensationalist and then get challenged over the details, but that's up to you, not me.

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Ok I'll give you benefit of the doubt

If.... You are counting why were you playing 100 dollars on match the dealer?

The problem is assumptions from others on why I did what I did.

First, the hit on the hard 17 was not a massive amount I was trying to protect. I hit deep in the deck when I had $175 at risk.

The wager I placed $100 on for the match the dealer that I won was when I placed a $600 wager. The deck was ripe to produce high cards and I felt like I would get a match. I didn't mind gambling $100 in case I got a big hit. Yes, it was an error. In my case the dealer had a top 5 and I received two unsuited 5s. While I won and doubled and ended up receiving $2,400 - $700 for a +$1,700 gain the match was pure luck. The original wager of $600 was calculated. If I would have lost the match and won the wager I would have made +$400. I didn't mind that.

Plus, and a big plus here. How many "counters" match the dealer? I didn't want to be looked at as a counter. Doesn't doing this on some bets help me out in terms of not being seen as a counter?

Quote: beachbumbabs

No disrespect was intended. Still seems unlikely this was more than a psych hit. I enjoy both the discussion you bring and how you tell it. Would prefer you not get defensive and accusatory when you tell something a bit sensationalist and then get challenged over the details, but that's up to you, not me.

Hi buddy,

I just wanted to clarify. While I quoted you, I was speaking about others, not you. You gave me the least resistance and skepticism.

Joel, surely you can see you are making claims that rub people the wrong way. Claiming that you are an overall winner is enough for some, but you go further. I'd put it in a nutshell by saying that you claim success by doing things in a revised, modified manner that raises flags.

For example, it's pretty much a given that a card counter needs a large bankroll. You say nay.

Now, it may be that you don't recognize the nature of the things that 'get people going'. But that gets questioned as well.

So you put 100 on the side bet where your -ev was probably more then your positive ev on the main hand?
That's where you lost me - I'm so confused

Quote: JoelDeze

First of all, I don't tell stories that are untrue. If people want to second guess everything I say or do that's really up to them.

I asked a simple question and received a simple answer + an entire thread response questioning everything I did. I provided answers that were truthful and I don't necessarily need to respond to them or even this one.

I do my best to treat others with respect and I would appreciate it if others did the same. What I've learned from my short time on here is that many of the people here are part of the "can't do" crowd. If they can't understand or comprehend something they lash out.

It's rather unfortunate that some intelligent people can be obtuse and closed minded.

Sorry if you already answered or addressed this but it's to dam early to read 5000 word posts.

You say you were just asking a question, and I get that, but here is how your "questions" come across to us reader's" ...... "Hey guys I'm a super good BJ player even though I'm rusty/new, i still play like a Fing champ, so let me explain just how good I am at counting. Let me tell you how clairvoyant and lucky I am. But first let me start off by telling you how much I win/won and bet. I had this super rare hand that might get me some heat especially since I really rocked it and won that sh*it. Hey guys basically I'm a boss at gambling, I know when to hold them and I know when to fold them."

__________________

So now that people find some holes in your storyland time and question you, we suddenly have closed minds. This is the same type of mumbo jumbo that mystic, voodoo, religious. Psychic, hypnosis say...
"You need an open mind, you must believe"

When just approaching a NO FLY ZONE one should not be surprised to find one has an uninvited F-16 Wingman.

No worries, prolly just a training exercise ;-)


Bang bang, he shot me down
Bang bang, I hit the ground
Bang bang, that awful sound
End Quote, Cher, Later Nancy, maybe others....

Well I was TRYING to point out another mistake. I bet the table was H17, in which you should NOT up your bet until TC +2, but he said he was doing so at TC +1. I wanted to see how much he actually understood counting, which doesn't appear that much. The side bet he admits he "gambled" on. It doesn't matter the TC you shouldn't play that bet. There are literally dozens of other ways to not look like a counter, and playing that bet for $100 is something that should not be done. The -EV from that hand massively hurts your +EV from the blackjack hand (again assuming you're even counting correctly).

In a given night, say you play for 3 hours, heads up at a decent pace of 133 hands per hour (so let's call it 400 hands in the night). Why don't we look at your EV/SD's for any 1 given night...

AvgBet = $25
OriginalSD = 1.15*25 = $28.75

***THIS IS ME ASSUMING YOU'RE COUNTING CORRECTLY AND EARNING ABOUT A 1% ADVANTAGE***
EV(400 hands) = (400*25)*(.01) = $100

SD(400 hands) = Sqrt(400) * 28.75 = 575... 2SD (95% confidence) = $1150

So on ANY given night you expect to make $100 from counting +/- $1150... Thus every single night you go and play you run the risk of going broke.... No counter who ever wants to make money would run that risk. Any serious counter has around 1% (ideally less) RoR. Thus, in order to do that, you'd need a bankroll of about $80,000 (rounding down).

So let's say you do this for 100 nights...

EV(40,000 hands) = (40,000 * 25)*(.01) = $10,000

SD(40,000 hands) = Sqrt(40,000) * 28.75 = 5750... 2SD (95% confidence) = $11,500

You could do this for 100 nights and still be down, all the mean while taking massive swings night after night at your bankroll.

Kelly Criteria dictates with your $1k bankroll you should have an average bet of $10. You're betting about 3x full kelly. It's already been mathematically proven by much better minds than mine that anything over 2x kelly is 100% mathematically certain to bust.

At this point it doesn't even matter if you ARE counting correctly or not... It is a mathematical inevitability that you will go broke.

*Note that I'm not even counting in the -EV from playing this -4% HE side bet Match the Dealer... which will just make matters worse.

**Also note I'm not even taking in to account that if you play a TC +4 max bet and win, you drop your bet to $125 on the next hand regardless of TC... Which will lower your avg bet at these counts and lower your EV.

Quote: AxelWolf

Sorry if you already answered or addressed this but it's to dam early to read 5000 word posts.

You say you were just asking a question, and I get that, but here is how your "questions" come across to us reader's" ...... "Hey guys I'm a super good BJ player even though I'm rusty/new, i still play like a Fing champ, so let me explain just how good I am at counting. Let me tell you how clairvoyant and lucky I am. But first let me start off by telling you how much I win/won and bet. I had this super rare hand that might get me some heat especially since I really rocked it and won that sh*it. Hey guys basically I'm a boss at gambling, I know when to hold them and I know when to fold them."

__________________

So now that people find some holes in your storyland time and question you, we suddenly have closed minds. This is the same type of mumbo jumbo that mystic, voodoo, religious. Psychic, hypnosis say...
"You need an open mind, you must believe"

I'll respond to this one because you provided me decent feedback, albeit a bit negative. Let me explain everything about me and my streaks as simple as I can (at least in my head).

One, I definitely count myself fortunate and "lucky" at times. So, a great bit of this is definitely just sheer dumb luck. If anything doesn't seem right or can't be explained I would just sum it up as this - I hit a bit of luck.

Two, I am extremely fortunate to have a brain that consistently works on extreme levels. I can't explain this very well but in my life I am constantly thinking, analyzing, problem solving, evolving, etc. I work in my sleep. I talk to other people and in the background I'm multi-tasking and also working. I suffer from massive anxiety and so my thought process is heightened to the point that I really have to think in order to not have panic attacks. So, sum up my problem solving to constant ruminating patterns of discovery, examine, adapt/evolve and solve.

Blackjack

Compared to others on this forum I consider myself a learning novice at Blackjack. I understand basic strategy and using enough deviations to offset things in tight games. I don't consider myself a very good card counter. Part of the problem is that my brain is thinking ahead and working on other elements so at times it's very similar to having ADD. But, the reason why I count well is because of my brain. All brains are smarter than computers. We utilize such a small percentage of our thinking process that most people don't even realize that their brain is working on trival and non-trivial assignments as they shuffle about their day. With myself, I've learned to organize and process things so that I achieve fast discovery, memorization and absorption. I also don't agree with all of the information I process. Therefore, while I'm sitting at the blackjack table my brain is actively counting behind the scenes (better than I'm counting actively). Have you ever driven a motorcycle? How about thinking while driving and then waking suddenly out of a day dream to find you drove 15 miles and can't remember driving all that time. Well, that's your brain understanding the full basics of driving. How difficult is it for a brain to count cards actively? In my estimation it's the same as when I tell myself I want to get up at 6:25 am and without setting an alarm clock I wake up at 6:24 am. How is that possible? Our brains understand time management and we know how to count seconds.

So, I'm an "OK" player at blackjack. I get on some lucky streaks. I trust my brain to keep me in the game. I don't second guess myself because I've literally trained my brain over many years to process background tasks. I'm also a programmer that knows 7 different languages and I work on code in my sleep as well. Some people just won't understand what I'm saying because they aren't natural thinkers or problem solvers.

Craps

I already understand every probability and every type of bet that can be made in this game. I've mathematically challenged myself to look at simulations, scenarios, etc. I set multiple dice patterns. I shoot and practice from all over the table to find consistencies/inconsistencies. I watch for table flaws in the felt too, especially on the back edges one to two feet in. You can tell when that happens as the stickman pushes the dice towards you and one rolls over as it hits a bump in the felt. My brain records and pays attention to all of that.

So, it's very feasible that once your brain processes all of the information around you, it can then extrapolate, plan and make adjustments during the course of play. There's a reason why your brain knows to increase your body temperature when you are in cool water. It knows to slow down and limit breathing expenses when you go underwater. Our brains are very powerful.

Summary

Most of the people here are very intelligent, but many just haven't either practiced on training and using their brains to process and critically think, or they deem the subject matter too trivial to spend processing hours on. With me, everything is worth processing and I am a machine. My friends and family believe I am a genius. Maybe that's why I have trouble saying the right things socially. Or, maybe it's why I don't really care what others think.

In terms of defending myself, I deem the process unproductive. But, if it makes people happy....

Quote: JoelDeze

...Blackjack

Compared to others on this forum I consider myself a learning novice at Blackjack. ...

Then you should understand that the majority of people that have responded to this thread, albeit negative, are actually trying to help you by pointing out you're counting hideously incorrectly. But every time someone points out something you've clearly done incorrectly, you get defensive and make up a reason/excuse as to why you did it. You're not arguing with us. You're arguing with the math of the game that's been proven and around for more decades than you've probably been alive... Which is what makes you look foolish and like you're not taking anyone's comments seriously. At that point, that's when you start getting the non-serious replies bashing you, because they figure you aren't going to take any criticism and actually learn from it.

Many people that have responded in this thread understand counting very, very well. It would behoove you to take their comments/knowledge and apply it to your game, if you want to actually have a winning game (which you do not right now).

Quote: Romes

...

I appreciate you taking the time to formulate and provide me additional information. In all honesty I am really just in an adjustment period. I've read a lot of what you've written as far as blackjack and you are a considerable expert in the game. I appreciate the wealth of information you are providing. My level is novice to intermediate when compared to yours. Part of my problem is agreeability. I understand the math and much of the rules but I don't believe you can win playing solely with a -EV philosophy and playing to reduce losses. I'm not saying you are doing this either. I'll improve and get better. Until then, as I'm adjusting and learning blackjack on a more consistent basis, I will definitely make mistakes. My brain keeps me in the game. That, and quite a bit of luck.

Craps is a different discussion entirely.

Thanks Romes. And, I appreciate you taking the time to help with the logic, the math and the critical reasoning. I'll learn over time.

Quote: JoelDeze

I am extremely fortunate to have a brain that consistently works on extreme levels.

Oh C'mon!!!!

Quote:

Craps
I already understand every probability and every type of bet that can be made in this game. I've mathematically challenged myself to look at simulations, scenarios, etc. I set multiple dice patterns. I shoot and practice from all over the table to find consistencies/inconsistencies. I watch for table flaws in the felt too, especially on the back edges one to two feet in. You can tell when that happens as the stickman pushes the dice towards you and one rolls over as it hits a bump in the felt. My brain records and pays attention to all of that.

Yes. and as Axel and others have noted, you just don't seem able to lose because your analytical and clairvoyant prowess are so magnificent.

Quote: OnceDear

Oh C'mon!!!!
Yes. and as Axel and others have noted, you just don't seem able to lose because your analytical and clairvoyant prowess are so magnificent.

I lose. I win. I lose. I win.

The only difference is that I haven't lost more than I've won. I also had some very big wins to offset some large losses. Most people when they lose money they go home. I look at swing momentum. Especially in a game like craps. Blackjack swings on the TC. It's a bit more complicated.

As for clairvoyance, I predict you were angry when you wrote your post.

Quote: JoelDeze

I'll respond to this one because you provided me decent feedback, albeit a bit negative. Let me explain everything about me and my streaks as simple as I can (at least in my head).

One, I definitely count myself fortunate and "lucky" at times. So, a great bit of this is definitely just sheer dumb luck. If anything doesn't seem right or can't be explained I would just sum it up as this - I hit a bit of luck.

Two, I am extremely fortunate to have a brain that consistently works on extreme levels. I can't explain this very well but in my life I am constantly thinking, analyzing, problem solving, evolving, etc. I work in my sleep. I talk to other people and in the background I'm multi-tasking and also working. I suffer from massive anxiety and so my thought process is heightened to the point that I really have to think in order to not have panic attacks. So, sum up my problem solving to constant ruminating patterns of discovery, examine, adapt/evolve and solve.

Blackjack

Compared to others on this forum I consider myself a learning novice at Blackjack. I understand basic strategy and using enough deviations to offset things in tight games. I don't consider myself a very good card counter. Part of the problem is that my brain is thinking ahead and working on other elements so at times it's very similar to having ADD. But, the reason why I count well is because of my brain. All brains are smarter than computers. We utilize such a small percentage of our thinking process that most people don't even realize that their brain is working on trival and non-trivial assignments as they shuffle about their day. With myself, I've learned to organize and process things so that I achieve fast discovery, memorization and absorption. I also don't agree with all of the information I process. Therefore, while I'm sitting at the blackjack table my brain is actively counting behind the scenes (better than I'm counting actively). Have you ever driven a motorcycle? How about thinking while driving and then waking suddenly out of a day dream to find you drove 15 miles and can't remember driving all that time. Well, that's your brain understanding the full basics of driving. How difficult is it for a brain to count cards actively? In my estimation it's the same as when I tell myself I want to get up at 6:25 am and without setting an alarm clock I wake up at 6:24 am. How is that possible? Our brains understand time management and we know how to count seconds.

So, I'm an "OK" player at blackjack. I get on some lucky streaks. I trust my brain to keep me in the game. I don't second guess myself because I've literally trained my brain over many years to process background tasks. I'm also a programmer that knows 7 different languages and I work on code in my sleep as well. Some people just won't understand what I'm saying because they aren't natural thinkers or problem solvers.

Craps

I already understand every probability and every type of bet that can be made in this game. I've mathematically challenged myself to look at simulations, scenarios, etc. I set multiple dice patterns. I shoot and practice from all over the table to find consistencies/inconsistencies. I watch for table flaws in the felt too, especially on the back edges one to two feet in. You can tell when that happens as the stickman pushes the dice towards you and one rolls over as it hits a bump in the felt. My brain records and pays attention to all of that.

So, it's very feasible that once your brain processes all of the information around you, it can then extrapolate, plan and make adjustments during the course of play. There's a reason why your brain knows to increase your body temperature when you are in cool water. It knows to slow down and limit breathing expenses when you go underwater. Our brains are very powerful.

Summary

Most of the people here are very intelligent, but many just haven't either practiced on training and using their brains to process and critically think, or they deem the subject matter too trivial to spend processing hours on. With me, everything is worth processing and I am a machine. My friends and family believe I am a genius. Maybe that's why I have trouble saying the right things socially. Or, maybe it's why I don't really care what others think.

In terms of defending myself, I deem the process unproductive. But, if it makes people happy....

Your Summery should read.....

I DO care what people think.... or I wouldn't make a long post(s) constantly telling everyone how smart I am.
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Sorry to be negative, but perhaps you can think of it as feedback or constructive criticism. It's what some other people are thinking and saying when they read your posts.

From what I said above you can see that I don't buy it when you say you don't care what others think of you. You may care less than others, but you do care a fair amount, that's obvious in many of your posts.

One day I hope to see your craps in action. I don't believe you have any better chances than a random roller. I'll even book the action.

I'm sorry you have problems with panic attacks and what not, it sounds absolutely horrible being a super genius.

Quote: JoelDeze

I lose. I win. I lose. I win.
I look at swing momentum. Especially in a game like craps.

Then your brain isn't working as well as you imagine.

Sure you lose some and win some, but you seem to believe that a loss will be followed by a win and a win will be followed by a loss because just like a pendulum, the game has swing momentum.

THERE IS NO MOMENTUM. There is NO SWING MOMENTUM!

To believe otherwise is to be a fully paid up believer in the gamblers' fallacy. You aren't one of those are you?

Angry? No. Exasperated, maybe, by reading a constant stream of BS and I don't mean basic startegy.

Quote: OnceDear

Then your brain isn't working as well as you imagine.

Sure you lose some and win some, but you seem to believe that a loss will be followed by a win and a win will be followed by a loss because just like a pendulum, the game has swing momentum.

THERE IS NO MOMENTUM. There is NO SWING MOMENTUM!

To believe otherwise is to be a fully paid up believer in the gamblers' fallacy. You aren't one of those are you?

Angry? No. Exasperated, maybe, by reading a constant stream of BS and I don't mean basic startegy.

I don't believe that a loss will follow a win. You and I can disagree on the concept of momentum. A lot of people misunderstand me. Maybe I provide too much information and make it more confusing.

On the angry comment I was attempting to be funny.

Quote: AxelWolf

Your Summery should read.....

I DO care what people think.... or I wouldn't make a long post(s) constantly telling everyone how smart I am.
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Sorry to be negative, but perhaps you can think of it as feedback or constructive criticism. It's what some other people are thinking and saying when they read your posts.

From what I said above you can see that I don't buy it when you say you don't care what others think of you. You may care less than others, but you do care a fair amount, that's obvious in many of your posts.

One day I hope to see your craps in action. I don't believe you have any better chances than a random roller. I'll even book the action.

I'm sorry you have problems with panic attacks and what not, it sounds absolutely horrible being a super genius.

I just like providing information. But, I tend to be long winded. My apologies for the long responses. I would love to have just "one" of you spend a day with me at the casino. I think you would find that I'm very funny and also intelligent. The offer is open any time. My Vegas dates will happen by week 8 or 9 of football season. I'd love to have a local tour guide from the forums.

Quote: JoelDeze

You and I can disagree on the concept of momentum. A lot of people misunderstand me.

For (swing) momentum to exist in craps, the gamblers' fallacy must not be a fallacy.

So what is your understanding of (swing) momentum and what is your position on the gamblers' fallacy?

Or do you dispute my assertion that believing in momentum in craps is the same as subscribing to the gamblers' fallacy?

Quote: OnceDear

For momentum to exist in craps, the gamblers' fallacy must not be a fallacy.

So what is your understanding of momentum and what is your position on the gamblers' fallacy?

Or do you dispute my assertion that believing in momentum in craps is the same as subscribing to the gamblers' fallacy?

Okay, I'll explain it like the stock market.

The MACD for craps in relation to hot and cold momentum (for my personal trending purposes) would affect my wagers the following ways:

If a person shooting rolls a 7.
If another person shooting rolls a 7.
I would play the DPL at $25 with a lay of $30 and place the DC on the 5th roll (if it gets that far).
The table has cold momentum.

If a person shooting rolls a point.
If the same person shooting rolls another point.
I would play the PL for $10 with $30 odds and start with $51 inside (5/6/8) and $10 in the field. I press the 5 by itself when it hits. I press the 6/8 together when either hits. I don't raise the field bet until the lowest placed wager on either the 5/6/8 divided by 3 exceeds 10.
The table has hot momentum.

It's the equivalent of having two movements on one scale or the other (determining a buy or sell).

The RSI indicator would represent how much money I have on the table and would represent over wagering or under wagering. I only take this into account depending on the number of rolls.

If a person is over 20 rolls, I reset my wagers by the 28th roll. The likelihood of a roll 30+ is difficult and only occurs a few times per night.

As for the gambler's fallacy, I measure my wins and losses similar to a trending graph. If I'm losing more, I wager less. If I'm winning more, I wager more.

I work for the largest property insurance company in the world. The mechanisms of gambling and insurance are very similar. The majority of loss is preventable but requires measuring risk and identifying ways to mitigate it. The same core principles apply here. I've built and used them in my football wagering algorithms and it's one of the fundamental reasons why I'm in the black versus in the red where casinos and sports books are concerned.

I've been a statistician for years. Just because I'm having success doesn't mean I'm BS'ing anyone. I will continue to have success because I calculate and follow a disciplined strategy, no matter how unorthodox it appears at times.

Quote: JoelDeze

I don't believe that a loss will follow a win. You and I can disagree on the concept of momentum. A lot of people misunderstand me. Maybe I provide too much information and make it more confusing.

On the angry comment I was attempting to be funny.

When trying desperately to be humorous it sometimes helps to use the little winkey smiley thingy.
On the other hand, in spite of your best efforts, sometimes people simply miss the joke ;-)