I'm no counter
May 14th, 2016 at 5:58:21 PM
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I sat down today with the intention of trying OPP. Yes, I know it is not very good, but I wanted to try counting SOMETHING. Maybe with more concentration I could have done better with it... but after 4 hands in the 8 deck shoe (75% pen), it was eating up too much of my brain cells.
So I reverted back to what I usually do. I'm no counter, but I am fairly observant.
When I'm playing with 4 or 5 other people and I see a round with very few 10s, I bump my bet up. In one case there were 0 cards on the table over 8. Playing $10 units and still a somewhat cautious player (as far as increasing units), I put $40 on the table. The blackjack that came next round felt quite good. :)
There were a couple times when I ramped up at seemingly the right time and it paid well. Seemed like more often than not.
On two occasions (after telling the table over and over again "I always hit 16 on 10!"), I stood. I'm no counter, but I'm fairly observant. Coming off a couple runs of low cards, I guessed correctly that the next card would bust me. Both times dealer turned low in the hole and the paint I didn't take busted him instead.
Don't know really where I'm going with this. Long time lurker, first time poster. Last six visits to the BJ tables have netted $1150 (no session losses). I generally stop when I've doubled my buy-in ($200), it's time for me to leave, or in the case of the floating casino, when it shuts down. I should grow a pair and increase my base unit since I'm playing with house money, but I'm content to hit and run. One visit I was up $300 after an hour and walked out the door.
I'm no counter, I'm just fairly observant.
So I reverted back to what I usually do. I'm no counter, but I am fairly observant.
When I'm playing with 4 or 5 other people and I see a round with very few 10s, I bump my bet up. In one case there were 0 cards on the table over 8. Playing $10 units and still a somewhat cautious player (as far as increasing units), I put $40 on the table. The blackjack that came next round felt quite good. :)
There were a couple times when I ramped up at seemingly the right time and it paid well. Seemed like more often than not.
On two occasions (after telling the table over and over again "I always hit 16 on 10!"), I stood. I'm no counter, but I'm fairly observant. Coming off a couple runs of low cards, I guessed correctly that the next card would bust me. Both times dealer turned low in the hole and the paint I didn't take busted him instead.
Don't know really where I'm going with this. Long time lurker, first time poster. Last six visits to the BJ tables have netted $1150 (no session losses). I generally stop when I've doubled my buy-in ($200), it's time for me to leave, or in the case of the floating casino, when it shuts down. I should grow a pair and increase my base unit since I'm playing with house money, but I'm content to hit and run. One visit I was up $300 after an hour and walked out the door.
I'm no counter, I'm just fairly observant.
May 14th, 2016 at 7:17:40 PM
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There is no such thing as house money. IT IS YOUR MONEY. After a big day at the horses my Dad would splurge on Mom and us kids, That way the track could not get it back. LOL
May 14th, 2016 at 11:06:50 PM
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Quote: ernestmiddleThere is no such thing as house money. IT IS YOUR MONEY. After a big day at the horses my Dad would splurge on Mom and us kids, That way the track could not get it back. LOL
I was going to mention that as well.....YOUR MONEY. lol...
Welcome to the forum, lazy!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
May 16th, 2016 at 7:01:27 AM
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Welcome to the forums lazy.
It feels good when things go according to plan, but I do want to note... Even when I count perfectly, and know that I have the advantage in the game, the results may not work out as desired. So to some effect, count aside, you're still just getting lucky. For example, your 16v10 hands. That is a VERY close play, which is why it hits in any negative count and stands in any positive count. Say you were actually in a positive count (since you don't know, but you estimated), that doesn't mean the dealer will have a small card under, and that doesn't always mean you'll get a bust card next. Plenty of times you'll stand there and the next card is a 2-5. Plenty of times you'll stand and the dealer will have a made hand 17-20. The fact that it worked out so nicely, giving you the benefit and pretending it was in fact a positive count, is still a lot of luck. Even in the positive count standing here is a defensive play which still carries a negative expectation.
I would not recommend bumping up your base bet as you're playing a negative expectation game. The more you bet, the more you're going to lose in the long run. In your last few sessions you've been lucky, which is why people that don't know how to beat the game play the game... because every so often they win.
There is also a lot more to counting than just seeing the big and small cards. There are deviations from basic strategy based on the count, betting ramps, bankroll management, Risk of Ruin (RoR), cover plays, and so much more. Simply noticing small cards and betting more the next round might be a hair step up from your average ploppy, but it is NOT a winning game that you'll continue to win with. So in your best interests, be careful!
It feels good when things go according to plan, but I do want to note... Even when I count perfectly, and know that I have the advantage in the game, the results may not work out as desired. So to some effect, count aside, you're still just getting lucky. For example, your 16v10 hands. That is a VERY close play, which is why it hits in any negative count and stands in any positive count. Say you were actually in a positive count (since you don't know, but you estimated), that doesn't mean the dealer will have a small card under, and that doesn't always mean you'll get a bust card next. Plenty of times you'll stand there and the next card is a 2-5. Plenty of times you'll stand and the dealer will have a made hand 17-20. The fact that it worked out so nicely, giving you the benefit and pretending it was in fact a positive count, is still a lot of luck. Even in the positive count standing here is a defensive play which still carries a negative expectation.
I would not recommend bumping up your base bet as you're playing a negative expectation game. The more you bet, the more you're going to lose in the long run. In your last few sessions you've been lucky, which is why people that don't know how to beat the game play the game... because every so often they win.
There is also a lot more to counting than just seeing the big and small cards. There are deviations from basic strategy based on the count, betting ramps, bankroll management, Risk of Ruin (RoR), cover plays, and so much more. Simply noticing small cards and betting more the next round might be a hair step up from your average ploppy, but it is NOT a winning game that you'll continue to win with. So in your best interests, be careful!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 16th, 2016 at 2:09:03 PM
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I appreciate your response. Last time at the table a guy sat down and asked about the side bet (your two cards + dealer up to make a poker hand). No one had bet it all afternoon and he finally plunked down a nickel. Turned a straight that paid 4:1 (I think). I told him "That's the worst thing that could happen... now you'll keep betting it." Sure enough, he gave it all back before long.
Much the same here I suppose. And I needed someone else to say it.
Much the same here I suppose. And I needed someone else to say it.
Quote: RomesWelcome to the forums lazy.
I would not recommend bumping up your base bet as you're playing a negative expectation game. The more you bet, the more you're going to lose in the long run. In your last few sessions you've been lucky, which is why people that don't know how to beat the game play the game... because every so often they win.
There is also a lot more to counting than just seeing the big and small cards. There are deviations from basic strategy based on the count, betting ramps, bankroll management, Risk of Ruin (RoR), cover plays, and so much more. Simply noticing small cards and betting more the next round might be a hair step up from your average ploppy, but it is NOT a winning game that you'll continue to win with. So in your best interests, be careful!
