AUSSIEKELVIN
AUSSIEKELVIN
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April 20th, 2016 at 7:37:02 PM permalink
I have been playing Blackjack for over 30 years and my win rate is in the vicinity of 70-80% for each session (not each hand) and have been playing with their money from the very first session. Not a big winner looking for that pot of gold, just happy with a reasonable profit for the amount of time spent playing. In all those years of playing I have probably played tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands of hands ) of blackjack and feel that I am a fairly accomplished player, certainly experienced enough to sense when something is not quite right during a blackjack session.
Recently, for the first time, I tried online gaming with one of the recommended Casinos, and came away with a feeling that something was amiss regarding the cards being "dealt". Too often my hand would be just beaten by one point (my 18 V d19, my 20 v d21) the dealer finishing with 21 after starting with 2 -3, or worse still, with a 5 or 6. An unusual occurrence or unlikely sequence of cards happening too often not to be noticed and I am starting to believe that the games may have PATTERN RECOGNITION software built into them. It seems to begin after 5-10 hands and logging off and logging back in again does not help, as the game information is saved and "stored" until I return. Not at all like changing tables at an actual casino.
As regards pattern recognition, any competent player can sit beside or stand behind another player and observe their play and betting style,(chip up/down, flat stake etc) and usually within half a dozen hands or so, can soon tell whether they are good strategy players or not and can then accurately predict their next course of play as soon as they are dealt their next hand.
Now, if I (or you) can recognize a pattern of play just by casual observation, a sophisticated computer program could certainly do it with ease, and then adjust or change the yet unseen cards(including the dealers hole-card) in the computerised "pack" accordingly. Am I paranoid?? I don't believe so, and as anyone who plays Blackjack would know, almost anything can and will happen, but not in an inexplicable repetitive manner.
Incidentally, the Wizard's practice game of Blackjack is excellent, and I believe certainly free of any these concerns. A couple of times now I have started with the $1000 "bank" and turned it into over $100k, on one occasion $200k, as well as keeping a spreadsheet of my activity for later revision. Thought or comments on PATTERN RECOGNITION software anyone? Cheers from Australia.
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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April 20th, 2016 at 7:53:33 PM permalink
I have programmed computers for many years. Of course it is possible pattern recognition is part of the programming. It's a business driven to maximize profit. You can find cases on this forum where great effort has gone into trying to prove or disprove whether an electronic game is "fair." It takes an awful lot of data your time to make a case, and the conclusion renders only a probability, not a yes or no answer. That's why I stick to playing at the tables if I'm interested in a fair game.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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April 20th, 2016 at 8:12:01 PM permalink
I understand perfectly what you are saying. But, by the way, the term 'pattern recognition' is usually used differently - it refers to the type of software that can look at an image -such as a playing card - and "recognize it." Technically, you are referring to software that would "flag" behavior based on individual markers or tell-tale actions. A low grade 'artificial intelligence" program could be used to do that,, but its probably software that is simpler than that.

On the hierarchy of trust in gambling, I would propose:

- State-regulated U.S. Casino - High trust
- Indian reservation casino - Moderate to low trust
- Online gambling - Low to no trust

Everyone has their own experiences and intuitions on which they base their opinions. I just find it hard to believe that unregulated gambling software on the Internet isn't jiggered to make as much money as possible.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AUSSIEKELVIN
AUSSIEKELVIN
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April 20th, 2016 at 8:59:04 PM permalink
Thank you for your reply "BleedingChipsSlowly". In those online sessions I described, as a test I started with $100, built it up to $1000+, but when it started going sour (for all the reasons already stated) I bailed out with $600. To be fair, they did credit my bank account within a couple of days. I wanted to post a screenshot to show you one good example of the unusual , but unable to do so. Cheers.
AUSSIEKELVIN
AUSSIEKELVIN
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April 20th, 2016 at 9:00:46 PM permalink
Thank you for your reply "Gordonm88". In those online sessions I described, as a test I started with $100, built it up to $1000+, but when it started going sour (for all the reasons already stated) I bailed out with $600. To be fair, they did credit my bank account within a couple of days. I wanted to post a screenshot to show you one good example of the unusual , but unable to do so. Cheers.
sabre
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April 20th, 2016 at 9:10:15 PM permalink
Why don't we just jump to the part where you try to sell your "system" and get it over with?
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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April 20th, 2016 at 9:18:09 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Why don't we just jump to the part where you try to sell your "system" and get it over with?

Badly played, sir. Wait for it... wait for it...
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
RoulettePhysics
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April 21st, 2016 at 12:02:59 AM permalink
Any pattern recognition requires correlation to the game outcomes and known variables, and sometimes other game outcomes. Otherwise known as cross referencing. It's an approach not exclusive to gambling.
The only way to beat casinos is to increase accuracy of predictions. You can't change payouts, but you can change odds with "advantage play".
seven
seven
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April 21st, 2016 at 12:13:12 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I understand perfectly what you are saying. But, by the way, the term 'pattern recognition' is usually used differently - it refers to the type of software that can look at an image -such as a playing card - and "recognize it." Technically, you are referring to software that would "flag" behavior based on individual markers or tell-tale actions. A low grade 'artificial intelligence" program could be used to do that,, but its probably software that is simpler than that.

On the hierarchy of trust in gambling, I would propose:

- State-regulated U.S. Casino - High trust
- Indian reservation casino - Moderate to low trust
- Online gambling - Low to no trust

Everyone has their own experiences and intuitions on which they base their opinions. I just find it hard to believe that unregulated gambling software on the Internet isn't jiggered to make as much money as possible.



where would you sort in the Bitcoin provably fair online casinos? thanks
AxelWolf
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April 21st, 2016 at 2:30:11 AM permalink
Quote: AUSSIEKELVIN

In all those years of playing I have probably played tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands of hands ) of blackjack and feel that I am a fairly accomplished player, certainly experienced enough to sense when something is not quite right during a blackjack session.

Big red flag when you don't actually know if you have played" tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of hands"

"Yet you are a fairly accomplished player"??? A fairly accomplished player wouldn't not know if something was tens of thousands of hands or hundreds of thousands of hands.

Sounds like you are just guessing about everything.

If you don't even know within 50k hands how many you have played how can I trust you have a win rate is in the vicinity of 70-80% for each session. AGAIN, BIG DIFFERENCE between 70% and 80% win rate.

Given a hundred thousand hands there is no way you have a win rate of 70-80% for each session.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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April 21st, 2016 at 3:15:55 AM permalink
I would suggest that anyone considering a pattern recognition strategy read the book entitled "Fooled by Randomness," by Nicholas Taleb.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AxelWolf
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April 21st, 2016 at 5:49:18 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I would suggest that anyone considering a pattern recognition strategy read the book entitled "Fooled by Randomness," by Nicholas Taleb.

I guess, but there's really no need to waste the money. There's enough logic for someone to cling to.

Unfortunately there's been actual cases where people were right but that's very rare.



Online is a different story. I'm convinced that some casinos do have some kind of large bet gaff and or second half wagering requirement take down.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:06:36 AM permalink
In Taleb's book he makes the very interesting point that when the market tanks, the sellers, particularly the moms and pops, behave as if the whole stock market is just some garbage. When this happens they sell down some very strong stocks to advantageous price points.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
MathExtremist
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:23:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Online is a different story. I'm convinced that some casinos do have some kind of large bet gaff and or second half wagering requirement take down.

They certainly have in the past. Some of my earliest online gaming clients (in the 2001 timeframe) were selling to drastically underfunded operators in the Caribbean. These guys wanted to run $1000 slots on a $500k bank. Naturally, any big win would wipe them out, so the vendors put in a "loss mitigation" routine that would tighten up all the games if any game started dumping. Sometimes the routines would simply not pay anything, site-wide, for a few minutes. It was totally crooked but that's what you get without any regulation.

I was reasonably successful in convincing some of them to change to properly-designed games, but I'm sure equivalent rigged games are still out there.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AUSSIEKELVIN
AUSSIEKELVIN
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April 21st, 2016 at 4:00:38 PM permalink
Replying to SABRE "Why don't we just jump to the part where you try to sell your "system" and get it over with?"

Oh my my!! What a cynical person you are. NOTHING to SELL but patience, discipline, a thorough understanding of the game of BJ, knowing when to get out and never get greedy, and NEVER EVER play slot machines (they are a cancer on society).
Last edited by: AUSSIEKELVIN on Apr 21, 2016
AUSSIEKELVIN
AUSSIEKELVIN
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April 21st, 2016 at 4:21:35 PM permalink
FOR AXELWOLF who replied to my original post -- "Big red flag when you don't actually know if you have played" tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of hands".
"Yet you are a fairly accomplished player"??? A fairly accomplished player wouldn't not know if something was tens of thousands of hands or hundreds of thousands of hands.
Sounds like you are just guessing about everything.
If you don't even know within 50k hands how many you have played how can I trust you have a win rate is in the vicinity of 70-80% for each session. AGAIN, BIG DIFFERENCE between 70% and 80% win rate.
Given a hundred thousand hands there is no way you have a win rate of 70-80% for each session.

My apologies for not actually counting and recording the number of hands of blackjack that I have played in the intervening 33 years, but then, I don't have an OCD condition. And you don't have to trust or not trust whether I have a session win rate of 70% or 80% or any other %, as I am not issuing an investor prospectus to list a company on NYSE . "Accomplished player" means that I am still playing with the casino's money ever since 1983, and common sense would dictate that a streak of luck does not last 33 years. Where will you be in 33 years?
Last edited by: AUSSIEKELVIN on Apr 21, 2016
AxelWolf
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April 21st, 2016 at 6:08:48 PM permalink
Quote: AUSSIEKELVIN

Where will you be in 33 years?

Probably 6 feet under.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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April 21st, 2016 at 6:16:03 PM permalink
Quote: AUSSIEKELVIN

Replying to SABRE "Why don't we just jump to the part where you try to sell your "system" and get it over with?"

Oh my my!! What a cynical person you are. NOTHING to SELL but patience, discipline, a thorough understanding of the game of BJ, knowing when to get out and never get greedy, and NEVER EVER play slot machines (they are a cancer on society).

"and NEVER EVER play slot machines"

IS NOT GOOD INFORMATION.

As far as a cancer on society that's a different discussion.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sabre
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:10:31 PM permalink
Quote: AUSSIEKELVIN

"Accomplished player" means that I am still playing with the casino's money ever since 1983



Of course you are.
Wizardofnothing
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:37:18 PM permalink
Playing with house money doesn't mean you are winning or why you do works, I have a friend that plays speed count and side bets, he got lucky and hit 25k on the side bet and for last six years he has been playing with house money -and has less then 4 k of it left
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
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