New AP here. Is this thinking correct?

Not the best counter , but my general play of late (especially when I have limited time ) is to flat bet near the min (or just $25per) until we get deeper in the shoe so I can see where we are. Then I start to stack up my wins or just push $100 or 200 on a hand or two and win and hopefully color up . It has worked many times , my thinking is : if I min bet at a $10 dollar table it will take an incredible run/shoe for me to win 15 /20 hands and be up 150/200 dollars (sitting with 2-300) . Instead, if I can win 2 or 3 big hands in a row or 4 out of 5 I can be up $200 and walk if I want or go back to lower wagers and protect my winnings . When I get up to double my buy in or more I usually institute a " if I lose two hands in a row , I am done for now ". Suprisingly, I often built in my stack even playing 50 per hand . Much of this was on a recent trip to Vegas . I also did cash out on video black jack turning 80 into 700 and 200 into 700 locally . I also enjoyed double deck a lot more than 8 shoe . The Cromwell was very good to me. Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number (up 200 on roulette) and saw a dude hit for 3500 with his wife after getting down 800 and waiting for the shuttle to he airport.

Quote: Greg216

Not the best counter , but my general play of late (especially when I have limited time ) is to flat bet near the min (or just $25per) until we get deeper in the shoe so I can see where we are. Then I start to stack up my wins or just push $100 or 200 on a hand or two and win and hopefully color up . It has worked many times , my thinking is : if I min bet at a $10 dollar table it will take an incredible run/shoe for me to win 15 /20 hands and be up 150/200 dollars (sitting with 2-300) . Instead, if I can win 2 or 3 big hands in a row or 4 out of 5 I can be up $200 and walk if I want or go back to lower wagers and protect my winnings . When I get up to double my buy in or more I usually institute a " if I lose two hands in a row , I am done for now ". Suprisingly, I often built in my stack even playing 50 per hand . Much of this was on a recent trip to Vegas . I also did cash out on video black jack turning 80 into 700 and 200 into 700 locally . I also enjoyed double deck a lot more than 8 shoe . The Cromwell was very good to me. Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number (up 200 on roulette) and saw a dude hit for 3500 with his wife after getting down 800 and waiting for the shuttle to he airport.

None of this sounds like Advantage Play to me, but I think you know that.

I didn't see any thinking there so your question can't really be answered.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt since you say you are new to AP, what you have described is not AP. You also admit you are not the best counter so you are probably just experiencing a lucky streak. The mention of roulette wins in particular point to that.

I'm less cynical of people on here. I know what it's like to believe you know something well enough to make you inclusive of a group only to discover later with more homework that you were not even close.

I suggest doing some research on here and you will find what the other members consider AP plays and what actions an AP makes. Even there you will find some disagreement. There are a few people here who don't even believe AP's exist (although for those of us in the know, we get a small kick out of hearing this - helps us with our cover - wink, wink, nod, nod).

Anyway, welcome to the forum.

Quote: AxelWolf

None of this sounds like Advantage Play to me...

not even this?!??

Quote: Greg216

Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number

Sorry , got carried away with other info and a sort of trip review .

My basic question /idea is : It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe.


I did count while in Vegas (and generally pay more attention to the status of the shoe) and would dial it back when it was negative and up my bets when I knew I had the Advantage . I don't have the free time to get as well versed and proficient as some of the amazing minds on this board .

Quote: Greg216

...My basic question /idea is : It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe...

Hey Greg, and welcome to the forums. I have the answer for you:

No. You are not more likely to come out on top by betting big for a few hands, and I'll explain why and then show you the math as to why to back it up. Basically, blackjack has a built in house edge. This house edge is something that will be realized over "the long run." So every time you go in to a casino, on any 1 individual night, you could win, or you could lose... but what I'm telling you is with mathematical certainty after X hours (the long run, usually about 1,000 hours) you WILL lose. This is how casinos in the desert were built. This is why they offer the "games." ...because you can't, and won't beat them in the long run.

Anything that's in the short span of a night, weekend, month, etc, is considered the short term and also referred to as "variance." Variance is the natural swings the game could take in the short run. Another way to think of variance is "luck." In mathematics, when you have a small sampling size of something, well it's not a very good representation of the actual data because you could have outliers that skew the data. Variance in blackjack works the same. You could win $5,000 tonight, which in the span of this month makes it look like you have a winning game... BUT moving towards the long run, and the much larger sampling size, your outlier will be but a blip on the radar to the harsh mathematical reality that is your Expected Value... which is derived from your average bet, the number of hands you play, and the house edge of the game.

Perhaps it will be easier to view this with the math now.... On any 1 given night, here's how you could calculate your Expected Value (EV):

EV = (AvgBet * NumHands)*HouseEdge

So how about a quick example? Let's say you simply FLAT BET the whole night at $25. Let's say you play for 4 hours, getting 75 hands per hour, for a total of 300 hands for the night. Let's also say you're playing an "average" quarter game with a .4% house edge (this is easily derived based on the rules of the game and things like the Wizards House Edge Calculator - https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/ ).

EV = (25 * 300)*(-.004) = (7500) * (-.004) = -30.

So if you played 4 hours for a night and only flat bet $25, you could, in the LONG RUN, expect to lose $30 for this session. This means when you've played 1,000 hours, on AVERAGE, you can expect to lose $30 per 4 hour session, or essentially you're expecting to lose $7.50/hour.

So now let's look at it how you want to do it... Let's say 90% of the time you bet $25, and then the last 10% of the time (at the end of the shoe) you bet $200. What does that do for our EV? Well, that makes your average bet $42.50, but let's say $50 for simple numbers (maybe you bet bigger a couple more times =P). Now...

EV = (AvgBet * NumHands) * HouseEdge = (50 * 300) * (-.004) = 15,000 * (-.004) = -60

So what's happened? You've effectively DOUBLED your expected losings! But why?? Well, I hope you can see the one important factor in the equation... The House Edge! You haven't changed it... You're still playing with the same negative house edge so by betting more, all you're really doing is LOSING more. I hope this shows you that no betting scheme, positive/negative progressions, martingale, etc will work. NONE of them will work because they don't change the house edge!

So how do you actually gain an advantage? Well you must change the house edge! Welcome to card counting =). Card counting keeps track of the cards removed because when little cards are removed it's better for the player. This small cards leaving "slowly but surely" change the house edge. A card counter tracks this ever changing house edge and waits for it to be in his favor, THEN bets bigger. So let's say a card counter waits for a really good count which will yield him a 1% favorite, now let's look at his EV if he always bets $200 when he's this 1% favorite. Let's say this only happens a fraction of the time, so he plays like 50 hands with this 1% advantage...

EV = (200 * 50) * (.01) = 10,000 * .01 = +100

Now we're talking! Betting $200 when we have a 1% ADVANTAGE will, in the long run, win us $100! (over those 50 hands)

There's a lot more to it than that, and I'd suggest reading my 3 A to Z articles if you're wanting to learn more on the topic... but this should be enough to show you why just betting more "at the end" actually LOSES you MORE money (because you're not changing the house edge)!

Here are the articles if you're interested:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

See! That is the info I am used to seeing . How about my "end " is when I get the advantage and I play my few big hands , get up and color up ?

I didn't mean "just wait until the end of the shoe". I meant the end of my play. When I had the advantage I would push 100 or 200 (if I had that profit ) and get up, then quit with my winnings . It happened 5 different times on my trip , one or two were actually early in the shoe and obviously involved "luck " .

But for us guys that are not going to log HOURS at the tables and only looking for a quick double up or small profit it seems to work . I usually play 200-300 bankroll and will quit with 150+ . I KNOW IT IS NOT SCIENTIFIC or the way a full or parttime BJ PLAYER plays , but maybe it is better than 80% of players who have no clue what they are doing ?

Btw, a couple of my "biggest losses" we're giving back a ton of winnings I was up and being too aggressive because I had a profit I was hoping to make HUGE . Did lose my discipline and "chase" a few times and it bit me

Quote: Greg216

See! That is the info I am used to seeing . How about my "end " is when I get the advantage and I play my few big hands , get up and color up ?

I didn't mean "just wait until the end of the shoe". I meant the end of my play. When I had the advantage I would push 100 or 200 (if I had that profit ) and get up, then quit with my winnings...

So are you card counting to track the house edge and know you have an advantage? If you're just keeping track of winning and losing hands then you're not card counting and your'e not tracking the house edge, thus you have no advantage and I'll revert back to how betting more, without an advantage, only leads to losing more.

Quote: Greg216

But for us guys that are not going to log HOURS at the tables and only looking for a quick double up or small profit it seems to work . I usually play 200-300 bankroll and will quit with 150+ . I KNOW IT IS NOT SCIENTIFIC or the way a full or parttime BJ PLAYER plays , but maybe it is better than 80% of players who have no clue what they are doing ?

Unfortunately no, you're going to do worse than the flat bet player. By betting more, in the short term, you're going to introduce more variance. This means a flat bet player may NEVER be able to win $3,000 in a night just flat betting $25... where as if you randomly bet $300 or so you might be able to have a really lucky night and win that. However, the flat bet player will NEVER lose $3,000 in one night, and if you have a really unlucky night, you can lose that. So you're just widening your range of possibilities, but it's to both good and bad... and by betting more with a disadvantage you WILL lose more in the long run than the guy who just flat bets and plays basic strategy.

The game becomes less fun when you realize the harsh truth that you can't beat it by any kind of betting/playing scheme outside of card counting and other very advanced AP techniques. But to answer your latest question officially: You will do worse than someone simply flat betting the table minimum.

Nose twitches, slapped myself in the face twice, once hard.
Nose still twitching, not ready to shoot myself...,-)

Sounds reasonable. Fortunately I will never get anywhere near -3000 in a day or even a week . I invest maybe $600 on a bad day but usually will play only 2-300 on any given day or night .

Just played locally and made 400 on a regular game at the casino in about half a shoe. Invested 200. Then a little run on video black jack. The wife was happy that I cashed in 1100 on a 200 buy in total and paid for our 200 dinner earlier in the night ...

I hope to keep it fun by playing sporadically , but of course winning is the real fun , but I never try to lose more than what I would feel bad about (a few hundred)

Quote: Romes

So are you card counting to track the house edge and know you have an advantage? If you're just keeping track of winning and losing hands then you're not card counting and your'e not tracking the house edge, thus you have no advantage and I'll revert back to how betting more, without an advantage, only leads to losing.

Definately counting , disregarding wins or losses win streaks or lose streaks. I just picked my spots to push really hard . Once the count got up to -19 deep into the shoe then I played a couple big hands and hit big (for me). I also knew when to actually drop down to min bets , then actually just get out when the count got really bad.

I know it is far from perfect (like some of you) but I had
A great , successful trip to Vegas and a great night locally when i got back so I will take it. Good thing about small buy ins is that smallish wins are good and satisfactory and washout losses don't hurt as bad .

Quote: Greg216

Defiantly counting , disregarding wins or losses win streaks or lose streaks. I just picked my spots to push really hard . Once the count got up to -19 deep into the shoe then I played a couple big hands and hit big (for me). I also knew when to actually drop down to min bets , then actually just get out when the count got really bad.

The count got down to (up to) -19, and then you bet big? I'm sorry, which count were you using again? I read too much, here, there, and yonder, so I lose my place ;--)

Quote: Greg216

My basic question /idea is : It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe.

I'll give you a different perspective.

If it is negative expectation, you indeed are better off betting a few big hands [keep an eye on total action - I'll assume this stays the same - important] The reason it is better, is that the Variance decreases as you play more hands. You have a better chance to get better Variance in this fewer-bets-same-action way, but Variance is always a double-edged sword. It is also the best way to lose all your money the most quickly. If all that doesn't make sense, I'll try to expand on it later.

If you are indeed a card counter, and it's positive expectation, then betting smaller amounts for the same total action is best strategy. Since the odds are on your side, you want lower variance. Look into the Kelly criterion to see what is the best sized bet. Ironically, in card counting you work against making smaller bets because you must increase the betting when the time is right. This introduces more Variance, something that drives card counters crazy.

So for you to come up with this question is natural. You are getting a taste of the crazy. Good luck to you!

Trying to do hi-Lo. -19 or 19. What I meant it was 19 to my favor. I always get confused on that. There were 19 more low card out if the deck than high.

Quote: Greg216

Trying to do hi-Lo. -19 or 19. What I meant it was 19 to my favor. I always get confused on that. There were 19 more low card out if the deck than high.

Keep trying, you are headed in the right direction. Don't be surprised when you run into roadblocks however, they prolly will not just shoot you and feed you to the gators. You're not playin' in FL right?

No point in counting cards if you are going to go and play roulette and other negative ev games after

I thought it was also "entertainment "? I work hard, make a solid living and do not win or lose to change my finances. I play infrequently and low enough to keep it "fun". But of course it is fun to win .

Quote: Greg216

Trying to do hi-Lo. -19 or 19. What I meant it was 19 to my favor. I always get confused on that. There were 19 more low card out if the deck than high.

Hi Greg,
Welcome.
I too play BJ for enjoyment and though I can count and play countable games, I prefer to mess about with uncountable RNG blackjack where the house edge is a tiny 0.4% I have the same sort of silly wins as you are experiencing, but put it all down to luck. Eg. buy in for 200: lose it, Buy in for 200 Double it then lose it all, buy in for 200 again and walk out with 2000. It feels good, but I don't delude myself: I'm just stupidly lucky at the moment. I get the distinct impression that you are tinkering with counting and deluding yourself about the advantage. Sorry, but that's how I read you.

Count of 19 !!! that surely cannot be true count. Surely TC 19 is a VERY very unlikely and infrequent event. If you are not converting to True Count, I suggest you cannot consider yourself a counter at all. Not a counter: Not an AP: just a gambler.

Take on board all that Romes and KewlJ have to say. They know their stuff.

By all means play for fun, but if playing for money, first measure the edge precisely. It will be tiny at best.
Soon enough you will experience the shoe where you flat bet a while at 25 then whack out a 250 max bet only to split, split, double, double, double, double.... and lose the lot.

Take care.

I have hit those split, split , double, double and of course lost to a 4 card 21.... Yeah , I don't pretend to be a "real counter" or want to get into doing 1:10 spreads. But this info on here is very very cool and helpful even in a small way . I have BS down and am looking to increase the quality of my play , along with keeping it fun .

I played a $10 a hand 100 dollar buy in last week just because the table was fun and the dealer was also(a group from the night before I watched and talked to for over an hour). Played small and even got off BS for a few "hunches" on 15/16 for me and went for a couple doubles when dealer was strong .

Made my trip to Vegas very fun. Also left with a couple extra bucks (50 that time )

Quote: Greg216

It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe.

That really depends on which hands you bet big on.

Overbetting your bankroll is a pretty sure way to lose big. (Look up "Kelly Criterion".)

The whole premise of AP is finding opportunities of when you are more likely to win than your opponent (the house) is, and taking the best advantage of those opportunities that you can. That's often NOT accomplished by pulling all the money out of your pocket and betting it on a situation where you are only slightly more likely to win than your opponent.

Grinding sucks, but if you want to be an AP, that's what you do.

Quote: Greg216

but maybe it is better than 80% of players who have no clue what they are doing ?

You are absolutely correct. You will do better than at least 80% of the other players if you use your strategy -- well, you'll lose significantly less money than others. The less you play, the better off you are.

Quote: OnceDear

Hi Greg,
Welcome.
<big snip> for brevity of course...

By all means play for fun, but if playing for money, first measure the edge precisely. It will be tiny at best.
Soon enough you will experience the shoe where you flat bet a while at 25 then whack out a 250 max bet only to split, split, double, double, double, double.... and lose the lot.

Take care.

If I remember correctly, it's split, split, split, then dbl, dbl, dbl, dbl. Now we are at 8 times the original bet! Are we having fun yet? Sometimes lots, other times no, or the whole damn thing could be a push and you still need to change your underwear......
Just 2F

Quote: Wizardofnothing

No point in counting cards if you are going to go and play roulette and other negative ev games after

I disagree.

Not related to the original topic, but I count cards competently and also play -EV games (mostly craps). I am realistic about my expectation in both cases (positive for BJ, negative for craps) and have a goal for each trip with respect to the amount of time and expectation I spend in each arena.

I honestly enjoy playing craps more, but I like to have the expectation of winning sometimes.

Well in honestly if you are using it to offset -ev of craps then I could agree with you-
However kinda like going and buying dollar store pregnancy test and then I suit from brioni