Never playing negetive counts

at my local spot, there is a game with decent rules (0.40-0.45% edge aprox) its played with 5 decks delt down to last 50-60 cards

If I count with hi-lo and I ONLY play when the RC is 0 or better, but I flat bet, assuming perfect play and no index's, would that be a profitable game? or if not profitable, would it be at least break even?

Quote: Bondy3

at my local spot, there is a game with decent rules (0.40-0.45% edge aprox) its played with 5 decks delt down to last 50-60 cards

If I count with hi-lo and I ONLY play when the RC is 0 or better, but I flat bet, assuming perfect play and no index's, would that be a profitable game? or if not profitable, would it be at least break even?

No, a RC of 0 is still negative EV. In fact a TC of 0 is still negative EV. The game doesn't turn "positive" for the gambler until somewhere between TC 1 and 2, depending on the rules.

Quote: AcesAndEights

No, a RC of 0 is still negative EV. In fact a TC of 0 is still negative EV...

That depends. What if all the cards left were nothing but 8's? :-)

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

That depends. What if all the cards left were nothing but 8's? :-)

not possible, only 20 cards are 8 in a 5 deck shoe and I said they stop dealer at 50-60 cards :p

but all 8s would be very bad, EV =-1

Quote: AcesAndEights

No, a RC of 0 is still negative EV. In fact a TC of 0 is still negative EV. The game doesn't turn "positive" for the gambler until somewhere between TC 1 and 2, depending on the rules.

I know, if I only played at TC or 1 or better then It would be a positive game,

BUT I am playing at a TC of 0 or more, so I am still playing a significant number of hands at a disadvantage. though it is a slight disadvantage.

my question is, with only playing these hands at a disadvantage, will this bring me to break even or above?

Quote: Bondy3

...but all 8s would be very bad, EV =-1

Wrong!!! Depending on how many times you can split, you'd have a huge advantage! Think about it again.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Wrong!!! Depending on how many times you can split, you'd have a huge advantage! Think about it again.

lets say that the deck is made of 20 cards that are 8, I would be delt 8,8 vs 8, I would split to 4 hands, and then I would have 16, I hit 16 vs 8 and bust, this would happen on all 4 of my hands, resulting in a loss, of 4 units. So I guess if I really think about it, the EV is -4 units per hand

But this is irelivent to the original question, which is, would it be a positive return to play ONLY in non negative counts and not have a spread?

Quote: Bondy3

lets say that the deck is made of 20 cards that are 8,

I would be delt 8,8 vs 8, I would split to 4 hands, and then I would have 16, I hit 16 vs 8 and bust, this would happen on all 4 of my hands, resulting in a loss, of 4 units.

so I guess if I really think about it, the EV is -4 units per hand

Sure, but we KNOW all of the cards left are 8's. We'd split to 4 hands and stand on our 16's while the dealer will be forced to hit his and bust.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Sure, but we KNOW all of the cards left are 8's. We'd split to 4 hands and stand on our 16's while the dealer will be forced to hit his and bust.

thats assuming that I am playing with an 8 side count and all 5 shoes are delt down to under 20 cards. so its ridiculous and pointless to think about

this is irrelivent to the original question, would it be of positive EV to only play in non-negetive counts?

Quote: Bondy3

thats assuming that I am playing with an 8 side count and all 5 shoes are delt down to under 20 cards. so its ridiculous and pointless to think about

this is irrelivent to the original question, would it be of positive EV to only play in non-negetive counts?

Read my original response to A&8's and look for the smiley face. Wasn't supposed to be taken seriously.

Quote: Bondy3

I know, if I only played at TC or 1 or better then It would be a positive game,

BUT I am playing at a TC of 0 or more, so I am still playing a significant number of hands at a disadvantage. though it is a slight disadvantage.

my question is, with only playing these hands at a disadvantage, will this bring me to break even or above?

F*** if I know, buy the software and sim it yourself. If I had to guess, I'd say it's close to breakeven.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Read my original response to A&8's and look for the smiley face. Wasn't supposed to be taken seriously.

aahh, I see.

but think you can answer the question?

Quote: Bondy3

aahh, I see.

but think you can answer the question?

That I don't know.

I just ran the numbers... You're still getting negative EV from TC 0, but yes you're 'slightly' right the other TC's make up for it.

If you play 0 dollars whenever the count is < 0, and then flat bet $100 whenever the RC >= 0, then you can expect about $6.41/hour.

If you bet less, like $25/hand at anything RC >= 0, then you can expect $1.28/hour, and this is all assuming perfect counting/play. Thus, with any mistakes you're likely not playing a positive/break even game.

This would also be a bit fishy after a while and probably get your play looked at, especially if you wonged in with black chips (which would only end up netting you about $6.41/hour).

You'd be better off with a simple 1:6 spread:
TC < -1 = sit out
TC = -1 = $25
TC = 0 = $25
TC = 1 = $50
TC = 2 = $100
TC >= 3 = $150

On a shoe game a 1:6 spread is pretty "friendly" plus this would actually net you about $21/hour.

Quote: Romes

I just ran the numbers... You're still getting negative EV from TC 0, but yes you're 'slightly' right the other TC's make up for it.

If you play 0 dollars whenever the count is < 0, and then flat bet $100 whenever the RC >= 0, then you can expect about $6.41/hour.

If you bet less, like $25/hand at anything RC >= 0, then you can expect $1.28/hour, and this is all assuming perfect counting/play. Thus, with any mistakes you're likely not playing a positive/break even game.

This would also be a bit fishy after a while and probably get your play looked at, especially if you wonged in with black chips (which would only end up netting you about $6.41/hour).

You'd be better off with a simple 1:6 spread:
TC < -1 = sit out
TC = -1 = $25
TC = 0 = $25
TC = 1 = $50
TC = 2 = $100
TC >= 3 = $150

On a shoe game a 1:6 spread is pretty "friendly" plus this would actually net you about $21/hour.

Thanks for taking the time to running the numbers for me! I dont want to be suspicius, though I wouldn't wong in and out with blacks as that would be foolish (its a local place, most people play red, maybe 1 in 10 people plays with green and I rarely see people betting black)

Also, with it being local and small (they have 2 tables, but a lot of the time only have 1 table open), table max is generally only $300 they don't want big money playing. I like the vibe in there, I dont want them to 86 me, everyone knows me

what if I played all and did the 1-6 spread? how would that effect my results?

What about a 1-4 spread playing all? what is the lowest spread playing all hands that would be a non negetive EV?

Quote: Romes

I just ran the numbers... You're still getting negative EV from TC 0, but yes you're 'slightly' right the other TC's make up for it.

If you play 0 dollars whenever the count is < 0, and then flat bet $100 whenever the RC >= 0, then you can expect about $6.41/hour.

If you bet less, like $25/hand at anything RC >= 0, then you can expect $1.28/hour, and this is all assuming perfect counting/play. Thus, with any mistakes you're likely not playing a positive/break even game.

This would also be a bit fishy after a while and probably get your play looked at, especially if you wonged in with black chips (which would only end up netting you about $6.41/hour).

You'd be better off with a simple 1:6 spread:
TC < -1 = sit out
TC = -1 = $25
TC = 0 = $25
TC = 1 = $50
TC = 2 = $100
TC >= 3 = $150

On a shoe game a 1:6 spread is pretty "friendly" plus this would actually net you about $21/hour.

I was about to come back to this thread and offer my simulation services for $50/hour. Bid for this job would $50 as it wouldn't take that long.

Stop undercutting the market!

Quote: AcesAndEights

I was about to come back to this thread and offer my simulation services for $50/hour. Bid for this job would $50 as it wouldn't take that long.

Stop undercutting the market!

at $50/hr I would rather write my own sim...

In days of yesteryear when blackjack games had lower house edges, players could afford the play-all approach. Moderately higher wagers on the fairly frequent higher counts easily overcame all the negative EV hands.

But when you start to increase the house edge, which has occurred over the last 20 years, 2 big things occur. One is that that negative EV number for all those negative EV hands grows larger, individually and cumulatively, meaning more negative results to over come. The second thing is that the frequency of the good counts (positive EV counts) is now smaller. So you have more negative EV counts, with larger EV numbers to overcome and fewer positive EV counts to do it with.

So there are two choices, dramatically increase bet spread or reduce the number of negative EV counts played, or a combination of the two. Many players fail to realize just how big an effect that reducing the number of negative EV hands can have on your results. Getting out of at least some of the negative EV counts (the most negative of them) will dramatically change your results.

Now here is the problem. Escaping the worst of the negative EV counts, whether it be wonging out, or carefully times bathroom breaks or just sitting out rounds draws attention. Depending on the situation, it may draw more attention than a bigger spread and playing more rounds, especially if you only have a couple local places to place with only a couple tables.

The ideal situation for aggressively jumping out of negative counts is a location with many tables and pits and many casinos (this is the reason, I re-located to a place where I would have a large rotation of playable games and tailored my game to such an aggressive "escaping negative EV hands" approach). If you try to aggressively escape negative EV counts, by NEVER playing negative counts without a large rotation of games, it will quickly become very obvious what you are doing, even more so that spreading.

So while I applaud the OP's thinking, his situation of very limited games really does not allow for aggressive wonging to the extreme his is considering. Instead of escaping all negative counts and eliminating a spread (flat bet), the best he is can do in his situation is some sort of compromise of escaping some of the negative counts (the worst of them) which will allow him to reduce, but not eliminate spread.

Thank you KJ for the very insightful and informative post.

Quote: Bondy3

at $50/hr I would rather write my own sim...

Then you should just buy the software. Seriously.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Then you should just buy the software. Seriously.

CVCX?

Quote: Bondy3

CVCX?

Yes, and/or CVData depending on your needs. I think you would probably need CVData for that detailed of a sim.

Quote: Bondy3

...what if I played all and did the 1-6 spread? how would that effect my results?

What about a 1-4 spread playing all? what is the lowest spread playing all hands that would be a non negetive EV?

Quote: Bondy3

CVCX?

I definitely promote CVCX and CVData, but in just my opinion they're not necessary for your situation. For a professional playing a ton of games and needing to know specifics and run sims for bankroll/etc they are... but for your situation all of the numbers I've posted in this thread I've shown how to calculate and posted the necessary data sheets to do it. I'd re-read my articles (especially article 1) and then check out the A to Z thread they spawned from (specifically page 5). I link to google docs example spreadsheets which you can download, and modify for your specific game. Simply change the frequencies for your penetration, and then play with a spread and see what you come up with.

I'm always promoting teaching someone to fish, rather than just handing them the fish =).

Quote: Romes

I definitely promote CVCX and CVData, but in just my opinion they're not necessary for your situation. For a professional playing a ton of games and needing to know specifics and run sims for bankroll/etc they are... but for your situation all of the numbers I've posted in this thread I've shown how to calculate and posted the necessary data sheets to do it. I'd re-read my articles (especially article 1) and then check out the A to Z thread they spawned from (specifically page 5). I link to google docs example spreadsheets which you can download, and modify for your specific game. Simply change the frequencies for your penetration, and then play with a spread and see what you come up with.

I'm always promoting teaching someone to fish, rather than just handing them the fish =).

I will have to go back and read that thread Romes, I haven't seen it yet.

One of my pet peeves with this forum is people coming around asking for someone to sim something for them or answer a detailed question that requires a simulation or other software, and than balking when no one will do the work for them for free and with nothing in return. (Bondy3 did not exhibit this bad attitude, so he is fine, but I have seen it before.)

There's nothing wrong with asking for help, but no one owes you anything. Someone like Romes enjoys teaching and has posted up a bunch of free resources, so that is cool. But about the time you ask the 5th question that could be easily answered in 5 minutes with a readily available piece of software...maybe just buy it and do it yourself?

In my situation as just a hobbyist card counter, I estimated that buying CVCX and CVData were a good investment for me. The price seems high for a piece of software, but when I considered how much I was betting and how big my bankroll is, it just made sense to make sure I was playing the best game I could and was estimating my expected winnings correctly. Perhaps if Romes's spreadsheets had been available back then, I would have held off.

In my opinion, software is an invaluable tool for a card counters at any level of play. Qfit products are the best I have found, easy to use for those of us not super tech-savy, and Norm provided top notch support, should you have any questions or issues. These products are well worth the investment, even if you are playing lower limits. This investment will pay for itself many times over. Despite that I am banned from Norm's sites, I strongly endorse these products for anyone serious about card counting,

Besides, super important things like figuring different Risk of Ruins (RoR) setting optimal bet spreads for different games, and easily determining expectations for different games played, you can find the answer to almost any mathematical question that pops up. Just playing around with the products, you learn all sorts of different aspects that you didn't expect to and different concepts all seem to come together and make sense.

^^^^^^^ Still completely agree SIM tools are very, very valuable to players of any level. I guess for the casual player in my opinion it comes down to the same decision as "which count to use." The SIM software will be CENTS more accurate, for a cost. The excel sheets are super portable/easy to update, and free.

I might be biased though, because to be honest I don't run SIM tools anymore. I've only ever run a handful of SIMS to prove my excel sheets were just as mathematically accurate, as those are of course what I am personally more comfortable with. After that I never looked back... I've never promoted them as better than a SIM, but to the casual player looking to really personally understand the math (instead of having the SIM spit out answers) and save a few bucks, they are for them.

Quote: AcesAndEights

...Perhaps if Romes's spreadsheets had been available back then, I would have held off.

For anyone wondering, btw, I've had SIMS run on CVCX, CVData, etc and my spreadsheets are very, very, close to the actual EV that is reported from the SIMS. So long as you properly update the true count frequencies of the different games, they're nearly spot on. So for me, it's just so easy to pop one open, change a spread, and see the end number. I can essentially "sim" a game in about 10 seconds, and also do it from my phone while at the casino (in the bathroom of course!). That to me is personally the biggest reason I promote them. Portability. Then again perhaps the SIM softwares have finally come out with an APP you can use too?

Never understood why people who play a casino game never bother with sim software. I use CVCX, and I don't even play blackjack!

I've never used any of it.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've never used any of it.

Me either, but I should have ;-)

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've never used any of it.

Can I ask "why"?? Do you prefer to do your own calculations?

Quote: kewlj

Can I ask "why"?? Do you prefer to do your own calculations?

I haven't counted in years and am not about to start up. Back when I played regularly, I didn't know about these things out there.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I haven't counted in years and am not about to start up. Back when I played regularly, I didn't know about these things out there.

I see. Well, I really believe software is a must in today's environment of card counting. I could easily see newer counters reading those somewhat dated books from the 80's and 90's and using outdated idea like BR should be 100x max bet and end up playing to a much higher RoR than they should, or playing shoe games and raising bets one small or waiting bet per true count, instead of more aggressive and optimal ramps needed to overcome the larger house edges of 2016.

Even for more advanced players, it is very useful in figuring out EV for different games and even customized ramps for different games and conditions.

Quote: kewlj

...Even for more advanced players, it is very useful in figuring out EV for different games and even customized ramps for different games and conditions.

For me I can do all of these things, and do. I have a sheet for different places, shifts, tolerances, etc. So I know my exact hourly EV per penetration/ramp/rules for the individual places I go. If I'm going to go to Casino C, and it's been a while, I'll pull the sheet up which has the spread for their tolerance, their rules, my EV per pen/hands, etc. Then when I get there if I find something has changed, I'll know how it affects my bottom line and can make a very good educated estimate on what my EV still is without having to go run a sim or check. I quite often find I'm right on the nose when I get back and update for the current conditions, and I like having that level of understanding of the game.

I guess for me it's what I started with, what really got me to understand the numbers instead of seeing them, and what I'm most comfortable with. When you see the calculations like Gain Per Hand = Bet*TCFrequency*Advantage, that helps me REALLY understand a lot more about all of those things. Then I can tie in information like, well when the penetration changes, I see a much higher frequency, which will in the end up my gain per hand. On the simulations I've done it just tells you the answers, but you may or may not 'really' understand the math and reasoning behind them. With this, I feel it gave me a much deeper mathematical and practical understanding of the game... Which I can then leverage to think of new things/ways/importance's that I might not have thought about without this understanding.

Quote: Bondy3

at my local spot, there is a game with decent rules (0.40-0.45% edge aprox) its played with 5 decks delt down to last 50-60 cards

If I count with hi-lo and I ONLY play when the RC is 0 or better, but I flat bet, assuming perfect play and no index's, would that be a profitable game? or if not profitable, would it be at least break even?

The answer is likely yes. You are at a disadvantage at TC 0 but you may be saved by the frequency of hands that provide you enough TC+1 or more rounds to offset the losses at TC 0.

A sim will show that you do have an advantage due to the frequency. Reality will depend on the actual frequency at TC>0. I would add that the general frequency at TC 0 is often equal to sum of the frequency of all other rounds at greater than TC 0. So, you may get as many hands at TC 0 as you do >TC 0 but the win rate per TC should overcome the loss at TC 0.