Pseudo Surrender opportunity missed?

Opportunity hit me by surprise recently. Playing pitch double-deck game with one other player. As the TC goes to +4 I have two hands of $150 out. I stand on my 15 vs. Dealer Ten up (no surrender offered); haven't seen other player's cards and haven't looked at my other hand at 3rd base (not allowed by the Casino). Guy says to me he will pay me $50 if I hit my 15 and end up busting(he wanted to preserve the sacredness of the cards). I'm thinking in my mind for some unexplainable reason that if I hit and I don't bust and lose anyways; he will not pay me. I just keep to myself and decline in order to get the game moving faster in order to play more hands. Is it really a no-brainer to take his offer on this or is there more to it? $50 is 1/3rd of my bet while I'll probably lose my whole bet if I stand while there's that remote possibility of dealer drawing a stiff. Taking everything into account, what would you do? Thanks!

I would have easily taken the offer.

Um...

Doesn't basic strategy say to hit? Does TC+4 really tilt the odds so much that standing is correct?

Even for that $50 offer?


I'm with the Wiz. Take it!

And then possibly look for more opportunities to allow the other player to pay you to play marginal hands...

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Um...

Doesn't basic strategy say to hit? Does TC+4 really tilt the odds so much that standing is correct?

+4 is the tipping point to stand on 15 vs 10. This is third ranking play deviation in the Illustrious 18.

Well, if +4 is the tipping point, $50 certainly tips it the other way!

Thanks all!

Not only should you have taken their kind offer of the $50 but you should have hit it $50 or not at +4, since the index is +6 to stand on 15vsT if surrender is unavailable. When surrender is available you would surrender down to -3 and at -4 hit, disregarding the surrender option. They were either a card sequencer or just a mental patient, one or the other. This is an extremely negative expectation hand in which you're in trouble no matter what, hit or stand.

Quote: Tarzan

Not only should you have taken their kind offer of the $50 but you should have hit it $50 or not at +4, since the index is +6 to stand on 15vsT if insurance is unavailable. When insurance is available you would surrender down to -3 and at -4 hit, disregarding the insurance. They were either a card sequencer or just a mental patient, one or the other. This is an extremely negative expectation hand in which you're in trouble no matter what, hit or stand.

When insurance is available? With a ten up.
Yes I know that there was a side bet called super insurance when you could insure against a ten,but if it even exists anymore it's rare.

Sorry... typed that in a hurry and meant surrender, corrected it.