Dealer Probabilities
January 14th, 2016 at 12:15:09 PM
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Hey guys, I just tried calculating the probabilities of a dealer getting 17-21 and busting assuming infinite decks (probability for each card is always 1/13) and standing on soft 17. The numbers I got were close to the 8-deck probabilities found here:but far enough off that I'm not convinced I didn't do anything wrong... (They should be slightly off because with finite decks the card probabilities aren't always exactly 1/13) If anyone knows if this has been done or wants to give it a try themselves I would love to compare and see if we get the same results.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:37:32 PM
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Here are my H17 infinite deck values.Quote: spencer739Hey guys, I just tried calculating the probabilities of a dealer getting 17-21 and busting assuming infinite decks (probability for each card is always 1/13) and standing on soft 17. The numbers I got were close to the 8-deck probabilities found here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2a/ but far enough off that I'm not convinced I didn't do anything wrong... (They should be slightly off because with finite decks the card probabilities aren't always exactly 1/13) If anyone knows if this has been done or wants to give it a try themselves I would love to compare and see if we get the same results.
17 0.133260
18 0.141507
19 0.135474
20 0.182262
21 0.122078
22 0.073567
23 0.065646
24 0.057405
25 0.048843
26 0.039958
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January 14th, 2016 at 1:02:14 PM
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Here's what I get:
| Up Card | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace | 0.1889173 | 0.1889173 | 0.1889173 | 0.1889173 | 0.077806189 | 0.166524613 |
| 2 | 0.13980914 | 0.13490735 | 0.129655433 | 0.124026456 | 0.117993485 | 0.353608136 |
| 3 | 0.135033988 | 0.130482326 | 0.125580537 | 0.12032862 | 0.114699643 | 0.373874885 |
| 4 | 0.130489736 | 0.125938074 | 0.121386413 | 0.116484624 | 0.111232707 | 0.394468446 |
| 5 | 0.122251285 | 0.122251285 | 0.117699624 | 0.113147963 | 0.108246173 | 0.41640367 |
| 6 | 0.165438177 | 0.106266579 | 0.106266579 | 0.101714918 | 0.097163256 | 0.423150492 |
| 7 | 0.368566194 | 0.137796963 | 0.078625365 | 0.078625365 | 0.074073704 | 0.262312408 |
| 8 | 0.128566544 | 0.359335775 | 0.128566544 | 0.069394947 | 0.069394947 | 0.244741242 |
| 9 | 0.119995441 | 0.119995441 | 0.350764672 | 0.119995441 | 0.060823844 | 0.228425159 |
| 10 | 0.1207097 | 0.1207097 | 0.1207097 | 0.3707097 | 0.037376367 | 0.229784833 |
January 14th, 2016 at 2:17:40 PM
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Awesome thats what i got. thanks a ton!
