What is the correct play in this situation?

My partner and I were playing at a casino last night, and my partner was playing at a table and noticed the dealer was consistently exposing the next card in the shoe. She stopped counting and was betting table max on 3 hands. On one round, her 3 hands were (from first base to third base) soft 15, 14, and 10, the dealer had a 6 showing and had a 9 in the hole. She saw the next card was a 10, and decided to stand on all 3 hands and the dealer of course busted.

I have some experience in hole card plays but not in next card knowledge plays, so I had no idea when she later asked me if she made the corrected play. Does anybody know what the right move was?

Quote: BJ4Profit

My partner and I were playing at a casino last night, and my partner was playing at a table and noticed the dealer was consistently exposing the next card in the shoe. She stopped counting and was betting table max on 3 hands. On one round, her 3 hands were (from first base to third base) soft 15, 14, and 10, the dealer had a 6 showing and had a 9 in the hole. She saw the next card was a 10, and decided to stand on all 3 hands and the dealer of course busted.

She stood on a ten. At table Max x 3 !!!!!
LOL. It might not have been the optimum play, but it sure was one to remember.

So, you had a guaranteed three-unit win by standing, because you knew the dealer would get 25. However, you had to stand on the 10 to do it. Just going off feel, that would seem to be the play to maximize EV for that hand.

However, it may have set off a red flag. In the interests of longevity, I would have stood on the first two hands and doubled on the 10.

Quote: Wizard

So, you had a guaranteed three-unit win by standing, because you knew the dealer would get 25. However, you had to stand on the 10 to do it. Just going off feel, that would seem to be the play to maximize EV for that hand.

However, it may have set off a red flag. In the interests of longevity, I would have stood on the first two hands and doubled on the 10.

Agreed.

You should ask Dan.
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The dealer didn't mention anything about standing on the ten 10?

Quote: AxelWolf

You should ask Dan.
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The dealer didn't mention anything about standing on the ten 10?

There was an older Indian (from India, not a native American) who would do these weird plays a lot at Motorcity. And no, he wasn't hole carding or next carding.

Quote: AxelWolf

You should ask Dan.
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The dealer didn't mention anything about standing on the ten 10?

Thanks. Correct play is to:
1. Play Pai Gow Poker or Dice, or;
2. Speak to the floorman, saying, "Jim, what the hell is wrong with your dealer? She needs a trip to the shift office. A little chit-chat. this is what's going on...."

Quote: Paigowdan

Thanks. Correct play is to:
1. Play Pai Gow Poker or Dice, or;
2. Speak to the floorman, saying, "Jim, what the hell is wrong with your dealer? She needs a trip to the shift office. A little chit-chat. this is what's going on...."

3. Pound away on the game until either it gets corrected or you get the boot as it gets corrected. :-)

Take the money and run..
Fast, don't look back.

If you were getting next card info every hand I would have doubled the soft 15 and then play out your remaining hands depending on the next card info.But I would not stand on a total of ten.

If it's 3 max bets that you basically are garunteed to win I think the right choice was made. Easy money

I would want to keep this going for many more rounds, so I would stand on the 14, 15 and double down the 10. While I know I put two bets at risk, I know I have 20 on the doubled bet and my odds of loosing all three go way down against the dealers 15. Not hitting the 10 is way too hot a play to not get heat and a correction, if it is seen.

I think this improves my chances of this play continuing.

Quote: Paigowdan

Thanks. Correct play is to:
1. Play Pai Gow Poker or Dice, or;
2. Speak to the floorman, saying, "Jim, what the hell is wrong with your dealer? She needs a trip to the shift office. A little chit-chat. this is what's going on...."

According to Dan the correct play 20 years ago was to buy stock in Enron instead of Apple because earning money based on information is wrong

Quote: BJ4Profit

My partner and I were playing at a casino last night, and my partner was playing at a table and noticed the dealer was consistently exposing the next card in the shoe ... the dealer had a 6 showing and had a 9 in the hole.

How did she know the dealer had a hard 15?

Many of us have seen plays worse than standing on a 10 (split 5s, double a hard 14, though usually not with max bets out). If you can sell a stupid drunk act, the comps might be nice playing like that

Quote: Stealth

I would want to keep this going for many more rounds, so I would stand on the 14, 15 and double down the 10. While I know I put two bets at risk, I know I have 20 on the doubled bet and my odds of loosing all three go way down against the dealers 15. Not hitting the 10 is way too hot a play to not get heat and a correction, if it is seen.

I think this improves my chances of this play continuing.

Exactly my thoughts. I am not a big fan of hole card play. By that I mean I don't seek out such situations as I once did (for a brief period). It's not cheating, as it is the dealer's/casino's responsibility to not be sloppy, but I just don't care for winning that way. THAT said, when I find myself in a situation (rather than seeking it out) where the dealer is being sloppy, I take advantage of it. What am I gonna do, pretend I didn't see?? LOL.

BUT, my single top priority is longevity. I count cards for a living, mostly in my regular rotation of casinos in my home town, and I hope to continue to do so for a few years. I take every precaution to draw as little attention and play within each casinos comfort level. In this situation, the best play standing on that 10 and a guaranteed win, would be just such an attention drawer that I try to avoid, so, I would go ahead and double the ten and take my chances. Still a pretty advantageous situation, knowing the dealer has a 15. :) And I would have not jeopardized longevity for one guaranteed winning hand.

Quote: BJ4Profit

My partner and I were playing at a casino last night, and my partner was playing at a table and noticed the dealer was consistently exposing the next card in the shoe. She stopped counting and was betting table max on 3 hands. On one round, her 3 hands were (from first base to third base) soft 15, 14, and 10, the dealer had a 6 showing and had a 9 in the hole. She saw the next card was a 10, and decided to stand on all 3 hands and the dealer of course busted.

I have some experience in hole card plays but not in next card knowledge plays, so I had no idea when she later asked me if she made the corrected play. Does anybody know what the right move was?

Extremely skeptical this ever happened. Assuming it did, your edge is enormous, so some cover is probably warranted. I would guess you would probably hit any casino's win tolerance within an hour or two of this kind of action, so you probably don't want to stand on 10.

Quote: TomG

How did she know the dealer had a hard 15?

Many of us have seen plays worse than standing on a 10 (split 5s, double a hard 14, though usually not with max bets out). If you can sell a stupid drunk act, the comps might be nice playing like that

Because she could see most cards before its dealt, so she saw the dealer hole card.

Her first hand was a soft 15, so she actually made 2 weird plays in that single round.

So I see the general concenses here is that she made the right play EV wise. We were traveling and we played at an Indian casino when this happened, so longevity wasn't really an issue for us.

Quote: BJ4Profit

We were traveling and we played at an Indian casino when this happened, so longevity wasn't really an issue for us.

Ah, well when playing at Indian Casinos, you run into a whole different set of issues and risks. Indian Casinos play by their own rules on how they handle different things, and some of the way they handle different things aren't exactly legal, but you the player has little recourse. In other words, they could find that play suspicious, decide you were cheating, take your chips and kick you out and you would have little recourse. Just saying you gotta be careful. :/