Low limit 'professional' BJ play

This may be better as a blog post, but I am going to start it as a thread in the hopes that other low limit BJ card counters starting out or with any such aspirations may benefit. Comments are of course welcome.

Is it still possible to eek out a living playing low limit, red chip level blackjack in this day and age?

I did just this less than 12 years ago, beginning my blackjack career in March 2004, with a bankroll of $4300. I had little idea of what I was doing, did almost everything wrong and yet some how survived for 3 years at this level, paying my minimal living expenses and very slowly growing my bankroll.

Despite my experience or maybe because of my experience and knowing how extremely fortunate I was, I would answer the above question, 'almost' impossible. I say 'almost' because I think (or thought until now) that there was the rarest of circumstances that it was still possible.

For starters, probably no other place besides Vegas, because of still a reasonable number of somewhat playable games $5 games in close proximity, minimizing expenses. The second requirement would be a young person, early 20's with no dependents and/or responsibilities and zero or almost zero living expenses. But then you get into that whole thing of just what “playing for a living” is, if you are living at home with your parents or family member.

My brother is just such a person and is ending his first year of low limit “professional” blackjack play. This is some of the story of his first year and things that both he and I have learned watching his journey.

Beginning bankroll $10,000. The plan: to play a carefully selected rotation of $5, 6 deck games, spreading $5-$80 and a select few double deck games spreading $10-$60/$80. Based on the number of games available and limited playing schedule so as to not overplay, I projected his EV to be in the $1000 to $1200 per month range, maybe a little more if he could get in a little more time that I projected.

The idea was that since he had no real expenses other than a little gas and entertainment money, he would draw as little as possible to allow his bankroll to grow, so he could eventually begin to move up in stakes and earn more money. Well....that was the idea. :/

So his year started off with a bang. I didn't keep track of how he was doing other than very casually. It was his money, his experiment or career or whatever you want to call it. But as I said, he started off strong, significantly above expectation for the first several months. One couldn't have hoped for a better start. But looking back, that is probably the worse thing that could have happened.

I guess it was late spring that I realized he had 'won' almost $10,000 vs expectation of a just about half that, yet his BR was below the 10k starting point. Yikes! He was spending all his winnings....way more than expectation. I had hoped he would spend half of expectation, allowing his BR to grow, and he was doing the opposite. This was a fatal mistake. I feel like it was my mistake as I apparently failed him on some of the key money management lessons that he needed to understand.

So I attempted to re-teach this crucial money management lesson, which he didn't want to hear thinking that he would go on winning at this unrealistic rate. But he finally seemed to get it. So as summer came he reduced his spending down to the minimum that it should have been all along. Problem was that is about the time variances began to catch up with him. There were some losing periods and some very stagnant periods, which all card counters endure, as his actual earnings came crashing down from the those heavenly unrealistic levels towards expectation.

By October his win for the year stood just slightly higher than it was back in May, around 12,000, vs expectation of around 11,000. pretty close to where he “should have been”. Problem was his actual bankroll was now $8100, because of his over spending during the early part of the year. Small wins have push his BR back up to $9000 since then and with 3 weeks left in the year, who knows what will happen. Perhaps he gets lucky and his BR pushes back towards the starting point....perhaps not.

But the fact is that his current earnings are above expectation for the year, which makes it a good year and his bankroll is below where he started. That is not a sustainable path, but hopefully a valuable learning experience. A wasted year, but hopefully a lesson learned.

So back to the original question, I don't see how anyone could expect to REALLY support themselves at this low limit level of card counting blackjack play in this day and age, if they had legitimate expenses to pay. Again, I conclude this only 12 years removed from my own, now seemingly miraculous run down this path.

See this is what I was trying to explain to The Dealer in his posts about his "winning system.". Just because you start off good, does not mean you will always be good. Eventually and inevitably, you WILL lose. Sucks that your brother began losing seriously after about a year, after such amazing initial wins, but that is Gambling for you. Your brother is lucky he is not completely broke, living on the streets due to the losing.

Quote: Kentry

See this is what I was trying to explain to The Dealer in his posts about his "winning system.". Just because you start off good, does not mean you will always be good. Eventually and inevitably, you WILL lose. Sucks that your brother began losing seriously after about a year, after such amazing initial wins, but that is Gambling for you. Your brother is lucky he is not completely broke, living on the streets due to the losing.

If you would do me a small favor, please: I'd like to ask you to go back to the top of the Opening Post and read it again for comprehension. Here are some tips:

1.) There is a difference between Baccarat Systems and Card Counting Blackjack. KewlJ's brother is winning because he is playing with a winning expectation, so to say he WILL lose is an absurdity.

2.) To the last part, KewlJ's brother is NOT losing, he is winning, he has just had a nut bigger than both his Expectation AND Actual Win.

3.) Pursuant to #2, this thread is about bankroll and personal money management.

4.) Whatever the circumstances, I cannot envision a Universe where KewlJ would let his brother live on the street.

Here's a proper order in which to do things:

Read---Understand---Comment

Or:

Read---Do Not Understand---Ask Questions

You may or may not have really read, you did not seem to understand, and you Commented without asking questions. Please try again.

There may be a pop quiz tomorrow, just a heads-up.

Quote: kewlj

This may be better as a blog post, but I am going to start it as a thread in the hopes that other low limit BJ card counters starting out or with any such aspirations may benefit. Comments are of course welcome.

Is it still possible to eek out a living playing low limit, red chip level blackjack in this day and age?

I did just this less than 12 years ago, beginning my blackjack career in March 2004, with a bankroll of $4300. I had little idea of what I was doing, did almost everything wrong and yet some how survived for 3 years at this level, paying my minimal living expenses and very slowly growing my bankroll.

Despite my experience or maybe because of my experience and knowing how extremely fortunate I was, I would answer the above question, 'almost' impossible. I say 'almost' because I think (or thought until now) that there was the rarest of circumstances that it was still possible.

For starters, probably no other place besides Vegas, because of still a reasonable number of somewhat playable games $5 games in close proximity, minimizing expenses. The second requirement would be a young person, early 20's with no dependents and/or responsibilities and zero or almost zero living expenses. But then you get into that whole thing of just what “playing for a living” is, if you are living at home with your parents or family member.

My brother is just such a person and is ending his first year of low limit “professional” blackjack play. This is some of the story of his first year and things that both he and I have learned watching his journey.

Beginning bankroll $10,000. The plan: to play a carefully selected rotation of $5, 6 deck games, spreading $5-$80 and a select few double deck games spreading $10-$60/$80. Based on the number of games available and limited playing schedule so as to not overplay, I projected his EV to be in the $1000 to $1200 per month range, maybe a little more if he could get in a little more time that I projected.

The idea was that since he had no real expenses other than a little gas and entertainment money, he would draw as little as possible to allow his bankroll to grow, so he could eventually begin to move up in stakes and earn more money. Well....that was the idea. :/

So his year started off with a bang. I didn't keep track of how he was doing other than very casually. It was his money, his experiment or career or whatever you want to call it. But as I said, he started off strong, significantly above expectation for the first several months. One couldn't have hoped for a better start. But looking back, that is probably the worse thing that could have happened.

I guess it was late spring that I realized he had 'won' almost $10,000 vs expectation of a just about half that, yet his BR was below the 10k starting point. Yikes! He was spending all his winnings....way more than expectation. I had hoped he would spend half of expectation, allowing his BR to grow, and he was doing the opposite. This was a fatal mistake. I feel like it was my mistake as I apparently failed him on some of the key money management lessons that he needed to understand.

So I attempted to re-teach this crucial money management lesson, which he didn't want to hear thinking that he would go on winning at this unrealistic rate. But he finally seemed to get it. So as summer came he reduced his spending down to the minimum that it should have been all along. Problem was that is about the time variances began to catch up with him. There were some losing periods and some very stagnant periods, which all card counters endure, as his actual earnings came crashing down from the those heavenly unrealistic levels towards expectation.

By October his win for the year stood just slightly higher than it was back in May, around 12,000, vs expectation of around 11,000. pretty close to where he “should have been”. Problem was his actual bankroll was now $8100, because of his over spending during the early part of the year. Small wins have push his BR back up to $9000 since then and with 3 weeks left in the year, who knows what will happen. Perhaps he gets lucky and his BR pushes back towards the starting point....perhaps not.

But the fact is that his current earnings are above expectation for the year, which makes it a good year and his bankroll is below where he started. That is not a sustainable path, but hopefully a valuable learning experience. A wasted year, but hopefully a lesson learned.

So back to the original question, I don't see how anyone could expect to REALLY support themselves at this low limit level of card counting blackjack play in this day and age, if they had legitimate expenses to pay. Again, I conclude this only 12 years removed from my own, now seemingly miraculous run down this path.

I acknowledge you wanted to discuss this primarily with other young AP's. But here's my impression:

I think, if he learned something (and it seems he did, since he finished the year with much better money management than he started it), that it was a relatively cheap lesson and tuition well spent. He's much better positioned to go forward, whether AP Blackjack or nearly any other profession. I don't think that many US kids his age have learned to budget, to save up for what they want, to save money in a lot of small ways that add up at the end of the month, just because of how our world has discounted those skills in favor of indulgence. As you say, it's a critical skill.

As to AP Blackjack, assuming he's learned some patience along with what else you taught him about longevity and technique, I do think there's still a lucrative opportunity. The beauty of a bankroll and a consistent winning strategy is that it snowballs, not linearly, but geometrically, so it may take a few years, but he can be well-funded with self-discipline.

The hardest part for him is going to continue to be having money that's spendable but part of his business and not for any other use. Most people his age are broke and doing crazy and awful jobs to make any money at all, building their lives. But there it is, right in his pocket, and he can't spend it. Add the booze everywhere and the way money gets thrown around, and he's going to have a tough few years resisting the temptation to fritter it away.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I acknowledge you wanted to discuss this primarily with other young AP's. But here's my impression:

Don't be silly, BBB. I always value your thoughts.

I do know that blackjack enthusiasts and particularly aspiring card counters are a relatively minor part of this site, but occasionally we seem to have some aspiring young counters pop up, so yes, I am hoping that sharing this experience with them can help them avoid the same pit falls.

Money management and discipline is such a key component to card counting. "Key component" doesn't even begin to do it justice. Without mastering this part of the game, everything else is meaningless. Without proper money management skills.....RoR = 100%.

Since I apparently failed at conveying this lesson to my brother initially, I hope sharing his experience can benefit others. Although from my own experience, some of these lessons just don't hit home until you experience these situations first hand.

kewlj, thank you for sharing. I always enjoy your posts, but when you share in depth like this they are always great.

I missed this thread originally. Thank you for sharing the story. My questions.

1. Since your brother had no experience counting prior to coming to vegas (at least I assume that), how did you train him? IE software or another method.

2. How long did he practice before he hit the tables?

Quote: GWAE

I missed this thread originally. Thank you for sharing the story. My questions.

1. Since your brother had no experience counting prior to coming to vegas (at least I assume that), how did you train him? IE software or another method.

2. How long did he practice before he hit the tables?

I have now trained all three of my house mates over the last 4 years. All three picked up the game at different speeds. We have a blackjack table in our home, so that makes for easier training and practice.

The first was my partner (business and professional). At first we were partnering on only the machine part of my advantage play and I wanted to bring him in on some blackjack to use some other techniques like my own version of the traditional call-in type play (used very limited). He picked the game up very quickly although my hit and run, quick strike techniques were not a great match for him because he has some medical problems (back) that makes moving around so quickly and frequently a challenge. Later I discovered that just sitting at the blackjack table seemed to aggravate his conditions, so he has all but given up blackjack again, and is again concentrating on our machine play, except for a small amount of out-of-town blackjack play.

At the start of 2014, I trained my other roommate, a poker player to count cards. He was very slow to pick the game, especially the card counting aspect up. I know I am not really the teaching type and teaching him was very frustrating to me. He eventually picked up the game, made a little money short-term, and went right back to poker. That too was very frustrating to me.

Training my brother at the start of this year was somewhere in the middle. He has pretty good math skills and picked up the game and card counting pretty quickly. His training actually was spread out some, starting the last 3 months of last year. Because I was fighting through a bad year myself last year, I was concentrating on my game and racking up as much play as I could to try to turn my negative year around, and just didn't have time to devote to training a second player in the same calendar year (end of last year), so I taugh him little bits and pieces and give him things to work on, on his own.

When the calendar flipped to a new year, I spent about a month really working with him and off he went to play low limit. In hindsight I probably didn't do such a good job in the money management areas of card counting. I mean card counting isn't brain surgery. Most people can learn the basics of card counting in a few days. A monkey could probably learn the actual act of counting cards. then you get into some strategy change index plays and that is just memory and also is about how many such plays you want to learn. As we learned from Mr. Schlesinger (illustrious 18), after about 20 such plays the benefit really becomes quite minimal.

So, the act of card counting is really something that can be learned in days. Money management and learning how to be allowed to play is really the harder lessons to learn. Some of that learning 'how to be allowed to play' is really learned as you play, through trial and error. But the money management is were I really failed my brother. I should have focused more on that, as that is key to playing a winning game. If you don't understand money management and risk of ruin thoroughly, nothing else really matters.

Money management is where most fail.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Money management is where most fail.

Absolutely! It is where most fail and/or where many bail.

Because even when you learn and understand money management and the swings of the game, and even if you are financially prepared to handle such swings, THINKING you are prepared to handle them and actually going through a huge negative fluctuation are entirely different things.

The first time you hit a real negative run, really plays with your mind. You question everything you thought you knew and almost assuredly will even doubt the proven mathematics of card counting. You drop a third of your BR and many say "F this....this is just gambling" and quit.

But you go through a couple of these swings and bounce back and come out the other side in positive territory and you start to accept, "oh this is how the game works". You do that a couple times and all of the sudden all the money management stuff seems to make sense. Up until that point it is just book stuff. You learn it but it doesn't really click and all make sense until you live it.

At least that was my mileage. :/

If you had charged all three for training, that would be +EV..
There are good guys in the world after all......
Even if very slightly -EV.

KewlJ, thanks for the post. Very fascinating that your whole household AP's.

If it is not too personal, I would be interested in how much time your brother is spending per week on his new profession?

With such low EV, is he looking to supplement his income with a "job" to cover some expenses or does the his AP hours not allow for such? I am not trying to be judgmental. I would assume most starting low level counters would find it necessary to do both.

A great read and a very, very good lesson to any newer counters Kewlj. Thanks for sharing!

Quote: DRich

KewlJ, thanks for the post. Very fascinating that your whole household AP's.

If it is not too personal, I would be interested in how much time your brother is spending per week on his new profession?

With such low EV, is he looking to supplement his income with a "job" to cover some expenses or does the his AP hours not allow for such? I am not trying to be judgmental. I would assume most starting low level counters would find it necessary to do both.

I would think most low limit counters would do both until they start to have some positive variance. It's quite difficult to sit at a minimum wage job of like $8/hour when you know you could be making 150-200% of that playing a game (even at lower limits). If you start thinking about being a quarter player, $8/hour seems like a waste of your time even.

Thus, even if most low level counters try to supplement with a job, I'd imagine they go through streaks of quitting the regular jobs (in good variance) and picking them back up (in bad variance). Just my thoughts though.

Quote: DRich

KewlJ, thanks for the post. Very fascinating that your whole household AP's.

If it is not too personal, I would be interested in how much time your brother is spending per week on his new profession?

With such low EV, is he looking to supplement his income with a "job" to cover some expenses or does the his AP hours not allow for such? I am not trying to be judgmental. I would assume most starting low level counters would find it necessary to do both.

I don't know about the "whole household of AP" comment. My one house mate, who is a poker player, calls himself "a professional poker player", but I am not sure he is doing much more than treading water. He could not survive if he had to pay legitimate housing expenses somewhere. I don't consider someone sleeping in his car between comped rooms as he was doing when I met him, a professional "making a living".

For that matter, my brother could not survive paying any sort of housing costs at the stakes he is playing. But having no or very minimal expenses is an ideal situation for someone starting out playing low stakes, and attempting to build their bankroll. I wish I had that 12 years ago, when I started out playing low stakes.....it wouldn't have taken me so long (3 full years) to build bankroll and bump up in stakes.

My brother worked a parttime job for 5 weeks this year during the Halloween season at Circus Circus haunted house. It is the second year he has done that. Other than that, low limit blackjack play has been his full-time job. Because he has a smaller rotation of playable games at that stakes, there is more travel involved for him which is counter productive in both time and money (gas expense).

Can I come camp with you guys?
I can sleep under the fake palm tree in the living room, my own private island paradise....
I'll put the bedroll in the truck during the day.
You'll barely know I'm there.
Unless I start cooking, then you'll know.....

Pretty sure kewlj is getting their first born out of the deal, an AP never does anything for free if they can get paid for it!!!!!!

Kewlj,

Your housemates could sell water on the bridges to supplement their incomes :-)

Regarding poker players, I think you know my feeling about them - the vast majority of "professional" poker players are degenerate, compulsive gamblers who happen to be decent poker players, with little understanding of money management, etc. Unlike "us," who would never consider playing negative EV games without a very good reason (generating coupons, free play, etc.), most poker players will kill time between rounds throwing away money at roulette, craps, (non-AP) BJ, etc. True APs and poker players are vastly different animals. And yes, there are exceptions, such as Ivey.

Quote: 21forme

Kewlj,

Your housemates could sell water on the bridges to supplement their incomes :-)

True APs and poker players are vastly different animals. And yes, there are exceptions, such as Ivey.

That is funny 21forme, because my one housemate, the poker player did just that the first year I knew him (before he lived with me). When I met him, he was sleeping in his car on weekends and getting comped rooms most weeknights (usually at the lowest EE property, which was imperial palace before they remodeled). When he found out I lived in a condo a block off the strip, he asked if he could store cases of water, which he bought in bulk at Sam's club in my storage and I agreed. Each day he would wheel 5 cases up to the strip, stopping at the corner gas station for Ice.

Yes, poker players (in general) are have a very different mentality than us. They are much closer to degenerative gamblers in my opinion.

That IS funny.

BTW, I sent you an email this morning. I have several email addresses for you, and can never keep straight which is your active one.

Quote: 21forme

That IS funny.

BTW, I sent you an email this morning. I have several email addresses for you, and can never keep straight which is your active one.

You got it right. Kewljvegas@yahoo is what I have used since I moved to Vegas (although I use a different one for communications from casinos. :) I thought the other one, that had my name in it, had been closed. Didn't it bounce back to you?

Too much info, edit now.
I do not want to see your bare naked ass all over the Internet.
I don't want to see your bare naked ass, period.
But if I find myself in your area (unlikely, short leash, someone call the authorities pls, I'm trapped, held hostage), but if I find myself in your area I offer, just simple offer, to buy the first round...

A noble effort to make AP wannabees aware of just how difficult this life is. But too few will heed your great advice. SIGH If I were young and stupid once again and wanted to try this life, I would probably get a 12-8am job in Vegas somewhere, hopefully one I could get a chance to sleep for an hour or two, hustle every waking hour, hustle a free room or spot on a couch, and try and build a bankroll that would allow me to quit that night job.
All told, there are much easier ways to make a good living, but Hyman Roth said it best to himself....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zfGdG79taE

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Too much info, edit now.
I do not want to see your bare naked ass all over the Internet.
I don't want to see your bare naked ass, period.
But if I find myself in your area (unlikely, short leash, someone call the authorities pls, I'm trapped, held hostage), but if I find myself in your area I offer, just simple offer, to buy the first round...

What on earth are you talking about? How did you pivot to "bare naked ass all over the internet"? Did I miss something?

Sometimes I have a really hard time following along with you 2F. :/

Good story. Similar to what I've experienced. A mistake I think a lot of people make is thinking that because it can be a decent source of income, it must be their 'Profession.' It is one thing to earn $100 to $200 per week at a casino. It's a world of difference to have to rely on those trips to the casino to pay for everything we need to buy to live the life we want. Instead of trying to earn an entire salary, it is more important to try to figure out how to earn a similar amount on fewer hours with less stress.

Hard to get a mortgage, car loan, or even a payday loan with AP as your source of income.

Quote: muleyvoice

Hard to get a mortgage, car loan, or even a payday loan with AP as your source of income.

Lend me money based on EV! It's my money I want it now!

Quote: djatc

Lend me money based on EV! It's my money I want it now!

Can you wait until the ink dries ?

Quote: muleyvoice

Hard to get a mortgage, car loan, or even a payday loan with AP as your source of income.

If you're good at it, you wouldn't ever want or need to pay interest on a loan.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Too much info, edit now.
I do not want to see your bare naked ass all over the Internet.
I don't want to see your bare naked ass, period.
But if I find myself in your area (unlikely, short leash, someone call the authorities pls, I'm trapped, held hostage), but if I find myself in your area I offer, just simple offer, to buy the first round...

What in the world are you on about? This is your edited version? I went back through this entire thread trying to find the slightest reference to or pertinence of bare asses. Can I have that 10 minutes back, please?

I think he's being metaphorical.

Quote: TomG

If you're good at it, you wouldn't ever want or need to pay interest on a loan.

Yeah, just pay cash 250K for that house. No red flags there. LOL

Quote: muleyvoice

Yeah, just pay cash 250K for that house. No red flags there. LOL

A professional is going to pay his/her taxes. All of the money will be legit.

Quote: muleyvoice

Hard to get a mortgage, car loan, or even a payday loan with AP as your source of income.

I have gotten two different mortgages with AP being my only income. The first was difficult. I was required to put 50% down. But it was only 6 years into my career and only 2-3 at the higher betting levels, so I only had a couple years of income tax to prove my income level. I don't know, but I am assuming this requirement of putting significant down, would have probably been the same if I was a professional blackjack player or any other self employment that I only had a few years of documentation to back it up.

The second mortgage came 4 years later and I had successfully paid off the first mortgage after selling the property and by that time had 6-7 years of tax documentation to support my income levels.

I don't think as a professional blackjack player, I was treated any differently that any other self employed type person. There is going to be a different standard, but if you have documentation and a credit history, you can still get credit including mortgages.

Both of my mortgages were obtained in Las Vegas, where if you are a professional gambler and have documentation to prove it, you are not looked at as though you are from another planet. Being a professional gambler is not unheard of in Las Vegas. I suspect attempting the same in other parts of the country may draw that blank stare.