house edge of blackjack of short run

yesterday, i played blackjack in Macao. showing maths is not working at all in shortrun.

i know the basic strategy, i respect it a lot. but i lost like 15 hands in last 20 hands. but many other(99.5%) is playing by their feeling. they are just right no matter if they are making right decisions on odds.

here by this post, i especially want to show how house edge goes in short run, not that much short, maybe one's life time., i don't want to give bad influence of any kind. i just show it to understand the game more. we need to just accept what comes.

by software:
6 decks, cfm, surrender, double after split, split to 4 hands, stand soft 17. flat betting. totally by basic strategy

first one thouand hands, house edge: 1.85%.
2nd one thouand hands, house edge: -4.45%.
3rd one thouand hands, house edge: 3.35%.
4th one thouand hands, house edge: -6.64%.
5th one thouand hands, house edge: 3.8%.
10 times*one thouand hands, in average: 0.42%

first 10000 hands, house edge: -2.87%.
2nd 10000 hands, house edge: 1.71%.
3rd 10000 hands, house edge: -0.87%.
4th 10000 hands, house edge: -0.43%.
5th 10000 hands, house edge: 0.74%.
10 times*10000 hands, in average: 0.58%

first one thouand hands, house edge: 1.85%.
2nd one thouand hands, house edge: -4.45%.
3rd one thouand hands, house edge: 3.35%.
4th one thouand hands, house edge: -6.64%.
5th one thouand hands, house edge: 3.8%.
10 times*one thouand hands, in average: 0.42%

another point, i want to say how losing and winnging streak work.maybe it is not mentioned in other places:
in any game of half and half by average in theory.
in 20,000(twenty thousand) hands. we win half and lose half. in this half winging and losing,
1 lose or 1 win: 2500 times.(25% of total winning or losing times.)
2 lose or 2 win: 1250 times.(half of above)
3 lose or 3 win: 625 time.(half of above)
4 lose or 4 win: 312.5 time.(half of above)
5 lose or 5 win: 156.25 time.(half of above)
6 lose or 6 win: 78.125time.(half of above)
7 lose or 7 win: 39.0625 time.(half of above)
8 lose or 8 win: 19.53125 time.(half of above)
9 lose or 9 win: 9.765625 time.(half of above)
10 lose or 10 win: 4.8828 time.(half of above)
11 lose or 11 win: 2.44 time.(half of above)
12 lose or 12 win: 1.22 time.(half of above)
13 lose or 13 win: 0.61 time.(half of above)
14 lose or 14 win: 0.305 time.(half of above)
15 lose or 15 win: 0.1525 time.(half of above)
.........
it means also if 200,000 hands, there is 1.5525 times of winning or losing 15 times in streak.
also if 20 millions times, 4.7 times of 20 times.

it may come tomorrow. or it may never come in one's lifetime.

Your odds of winning a hand are ~42%, losing ~49%, and pushing ~9%.

Thus, your odds of losing 15 in a row are: .49^15 = 0.00002253934... or about 1 in 45,000 (actually a hair less, but let's round).

Blackjack can be a fickle game because you're set up to lose more frequently than you win, and a big mistake most beginners/intermediates make is they think when the count raises they should "win more often." You win in blackjack because of your ability to double, split, get paid 3:2 on BJ, and because the dealer must hit 16 even in higher counts so they will bust more often. Other than that the dealer is just as likely to get a BJ as you are in a high count, you just get paid more for it.

I wouldn't focus too much on anything in the "short term" other than possibly being cheated. If you run through 10-20k hands and you're more than 3SD out of expectation, then you have something that needs further investigation... but on any one night/weekend/week/etc you really can, and will, ride the roller coaster of variance that comes with the game. This is why most pro's/etc mention blackjack is a very tough game to beat because you can only do so in the long run, over 100k plus hands (100 hours of play at 100 hands per hour).

Blackjack is quite a variable game. If you were to run a Blackjack simulation then you would find the calculated House Edge per 1000 hands would vary, as you have seen. Indeed the first time I tried a ploppy player strategy, they came out ahead for the first 1000 hands! As you have also seen, as the number of hands grow, the House Edge tends towards the long-term value.

On the other side, an advantage player can suffer losses and it will take many hands to almost guarantee a profit - mathematically they could still lose their bankroll before making a profit. However that's a different issue.

yes, i deeply think so.

i know to think : to follow the trend is much easier.

the trend can be any. like to see deal gets a 'too many' at first 10 or A when watching others to play, or the dealer loses 3 times...

also money management and stopping the loss is much easier.

thanks, Romes.

there is a question, i did it a new post, but nobody is answering me, here i want to hijack my post to get your answer, i know you give serious answers.
:
i buy dead chip: 10000 dollor to get 12500 dollar dead chips.

for dead chip, if we lose, we don't get cash chip. only after we win, we get cash chip. does this mean house edge is cut by 1.25% or 1.25%/2?

for baccarat, as we all know, betting banker all the time, house edge is 1.06%.

can i win money if i keep betting banker?

Quote: tomchina123

thanks, Romes.

there is a question, i did it a new post, but nobody is answering me, here i want to hijack my post to get your answer, i know you give serious answers.
:
i buy dead chip: 10000 dollor to get 12500 dollar dead chips.

for dead chip, if we lose, we don't get cash chip. only after we win, we get cash chip. does this mean house edge is cut by 1.25% or 1.25%/2?

for baccarat, as we all know, betting banker all the time, house edge is 1.06%.

can i win money if i keep betting banker?

I don't know what dead chips are... I'm just going off what you wrote and trying to take it literally... So there's some way you can spend $10,000 and get $12,500 in chips, which sound like "Free Play Chips." You only get paid real chips if you win and if you lose they go bye bye. I'm going to go ahead and ASSUME all $12,500 is in free play chips so you need to play them through at least once in order to actually have real money at the end of the day.

*Note if this is some online promotion I would not do it. I'm assuming a real casino.

So you're spending $10,000 and getting $12,500... if you bet BANKER every single betting round, and say a $500 bet every single round, then:

EV = AvgBet*NumHands*HE = (500)*(25)(-.0106) = -$132.50... Do note, this is also for something like EZ baccarat where I"m not taking commission in to account.

Thus, if you have no commission and simply "play through" your betting requirement of $12,500 (play through the free play at least once) then you should stand to make $250 - $132.50 = $117.50. Again, this is without commission on wins though (which at a $500 bet and a 5% commission would be $25 per win, and would certainly make you LOSE money on this play through).

Again, I'm not really sure what you're asking, but that's my best guess at what it appears you're asking.

Quote: Romes

Again, I'm not really sure what you're asking, but that's my best guess at what it appears you're asking.

He's talking about "dead chips" which is an incentive given in Asian casinos. He is off by a 0 here. He is getting 2.5% -- $102,500 in chips for $100,000. Dead chips cannot be cashed. They must be played until they are lost. Any winnings from using these chips are paid in cash chips. The person plays through their dead chips until they lose them all. Then, often, they take their cash they have won and buy more dead chips, usually at a reduced rate of 1% or so ($101,000 in dead chips for $100,000).

For example, suppose a player is given $102,500 in dead chips for $100,000 and bets them all on Banker. A chip bet on Banker must be wagered, on average, 2.241 times before it is lost. Thus, the player must wager ($102,500)x(2.241) = $229,700 on average to lose his dead chips. The t-win on this total wager amount on Banker bets is 1.058% x $229,700 = $2,430. So the player's initial balance of $102,500 in dead chips is worth $100,070 in cash after the play-thru. The player has won (theoretically) $70.

A 1% dead chip incentive gives a $101,000 in dead chips for $100,000. Exercise -- show that the casino has a theoretical win of about $1,394 in this situation.

So, the player has a microscopic edge over the house with a 2.5% dead chip bonus. Future buy-ins are usually 1%. These dead chip bonuses have a clear profit for the house after the initial round. The first buy-in is break-even. After that, the player gets a discount, but the house still has a solid edge. These dead chip programs are given as part of a junket, so it is highly unlikely that a player who abuses them would be welcomed back.

Thanks Romes, thanks, Teliot.

yes, it is 102500.

and the dead chip is like this.

i have an understanding on this, check if right( i also wrote it in another post.). i guess it is, but not so sure.

in theory, it can.

every betting, we lose 1.06% by betting banker because of house edge of traditional baccrat is 1.06%., but because of dead chip, you get 1.25% more of the totally bankroll, then we make 0.19%.for very bet.

but it is a hard job. because the house edge can vary even in 50,000 hands.

here are the tests i did in excel.

this is 10 times, each time is 50,000 hands.always betting banker;
-0.018409
-0.010453
-0.015406
-0.003628
-0.005266
-0.015679
-0.012832
-0.015679
-0.01174
-0.004759
by average
-0.0113851

and so it is still risky and long time job.

right?

Quote: tomchina123

and so it is still risky and long time job.

right?

No. The house edge does not vary. You are not making 0.19% for every bet. Your simulations are irrelevant.

Quote: teliot

...the player's initial balance of $102,500 in dead chips is worth $100,070 in cash after the play-thru...

The other thread discussing this is https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/24041-can-this-way-beat-baccarat/ and I agree with your figure and a million shoes (80m hands) got 100.03%. I have given a lengthy discussion (average/SDs etc.) about simulations needing to run enough trials to get sufficiently closely packed results before any firm conclusion can be drawn. In my runs of 10x200,000 hands, the results (shown on the thread) were 99.27-100.67%, and had an average of 99.86% - but because of the range, you couldn't be that confident of the estimate. Bacarrat (and Blackjack which I'm more familiar with) need many millions, if not billions, of hands before firm conclusions can be drawn.

This is the way I worked it out - you eventually stop betting when your free money runs out, this happens when 102500 of the other side happen, thus just work out how many results you win before that. This is P/B*102500 or B/P*102500, then multiply by $1 or 95c as appropriate.

Bet	Perms	WIns per 102500 other side	Payout
Banker	2 292 252 566 437 880	105 336.903	100 070.058
Player	2 230 518 282 592 250	99 739.500	99 739.500

Quote: charliepatrick

Bet	Perms	WIns per 102500 other side	Payout
Banker	2 292 252 566 437 880	105 336.903	100 070.058
Player	2 230 518 282 592 250	99 739.500	99 739.500

Hi Charlie. The way I did the math above is the standard computation that marketing does when evaluating these incentives (for example, see "Casino Operations Management, 2nd edition" by Kilby, Fox & Lucas). To do this by simulation and expect to get a reasonable result is not going to be easy, and will be far less accurate.

As for your method, it looks like it gets the same result and is very clever. However, it is not as intuitive to the casual observer as the "standard" way of doing it.

As for that other thread, the poster appears to believe in heavy doses of voodoo and has an aversion to fact, so you have my blessings for your willingness to deal with that.