80-90% penetration.

I've been practicing my counting skills and noticed while we are at the casino for some entertainment on the weekends, our favorite place seems to have very good penetration. The 6 deck games are consistently placing the cut card around the 5 deck mark. Have seen quite a few get placed even farther back leaving less than one deck undealt.

I am curious how a person might fare to be able to milk the casino for comps playing BJ? Im not really interested in trying to make alot of money, just have fun and not lose my money. Would making index plays and using a small spread like 1-5 be worthwhile?? The rules of the game are 6D, split up to 4 hands (even on aces) DAS, double any two cards, late surrender, 3:2 BJ... Wizard's calc puts this game at .45% house edge. There is also double deck with pretty much the same rules with a .25%-.30% HE but i am not entirely sure on how far penetrated those games get.

Quote: brettecantwell

I've been practicing my counting skills and noticed while we are at the casino for some entertainment on the weekends, our favorite place seems to have very good penetration. The 6 deck games are consistently placing the cut card around the 5 deck mark. Have seen quite a few get placed even farther back leaving less than one deck undealt.

I am curious how a person might fare to be able to milk the casino for comps playing BJ? Im not really interested in trying to make alot of money, just have fun and not lose my money. Would making index plays and using a small spread like 1-5 be worthwhile?? The rules of the game are 6D, split up to 4 hands (even on aces) DAS, double any two cards, late surrender, 3:2 BJ... Wizard's calc puts this game at .45% house edge. There is also double deck with pretty much the same rules with a .25%-.30% HE but i am not entirely sure on how far penetrated those games get.

Its not the best game in the world, but the penetration makes it playable, the score will be low, but the penetration makes up for it, especially so if they go beyond 5 deck cuts. A 1-5 spread can potentially beat this game if you play your indices appropriately. I wouldn't suggest a "playall" for this game, rather something more like WI@ TC1 WO@ TC-1 if more than 3 decks remain, WO@TC-2 if less than 3 decks remain, with a surplus of aces.

Though, I should say, I don't know why you'd limit yourself to 1-5 in this setting. 1-8 would certainly be more flexible here, 1-12 would likely net you a slim edge in a "playall".

Quote: brettecantwell

...The rules of the game are 6D, split up to 4 hands (even on aces) DAS, double any two cards, late surrender, 3:2 BJ... Wizard's calc puts this game at .45% house edge...

Are you sure about the HE? I'm thinking it'd be lower with those rules.

Edit. That game must be H17. So then the .45% makes sense.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Are you sure about the HE? I'm thinking it'd be lower with those rules.

Edit. That game must be H17. So then the .45% makes sense.

Yeah, he didn't mention the H17/S17, H17 calculates closer to .46%, S17 would be easily beaten by a "playall" 1-8 spread with minimal indices.

Quote: Exoter175

Yeah, he didn't mention the H17/S17, H17 calculates closer to .46%, S17 would be easily beaten by a "playall" 1-8 spread with minimal indices.

I think he's just looking for a break even type game with a small spread.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I think he's just looking for a break even type game with a small spread.

With the intention of milking comps, which is not a good idea, considering how poorly blackjack is rated/comped.

Sorry I forgot to mention it is a h17 game. I'm not sure on what sort of spread is possible... there's tons of folks just betting all over the place all the time but I always flat bet. Also we go to the casino regularly and most of the dealers and pit know us by name they are friendly and we like them alot.. We go mainly for the socializing and having a good time so I'm not interested in getting booted at all. Just a break even sort of deal ... I suppose the comps are not too big of a deal, rooms are useless to us as we live local. We already get small amounts of table game and slot play weekly. As well as smalldinner vouchers. We really aren't big spenders. Flat betting all the time.

With your given rules (6D, H17, DA, DAS, LS, Split to 4 hands, BJ is 3:2) I'm showing a House Edge of .55%

Since this is over .5% you'll need a TC +2 to raise your bet. I've plugged in the HE and a simple $10-$50 spread (upping at TC +2 and having max bet out at TC +4) to one of my publicly posted spreadsheets, and I'm showing an expected hourly rate (assuming 100 hands per hour) of $3.20. This might go up "slightly" because the frequencies should be a bit better on the good penetration, so let's say about $4/hour. This would disappear given you probably won't get 100 hands per hour, wong out at TC <-1, and you will inevitably make mistakes.

Basically, a 1-5 spread would not get the job done for you. Perhaps if you were playing Quarters at the exact same game with a $25-$125 spread, then given 100 hands per hour and no mistakes you could earn about $9/hour. The big kickers here are 100 hands per hour, no mistakes, AND wonging out at anything less than TC -1.

The comps you'll get rated are generally not very good. If a PB marks your average bet at $25 and you play for 1 hour getting 100 hands, then:

Expected Loss (EL) = AvgBet*NumHands*HouseEdge = (25)*(100)*(-.01) = -$25.00
*Note I set the HE to 1% because most places do not rate players at the actual house edge of the game, because most players are god awful and play a 2-3% HE game by not playing basic strategy.

Thus, your comps, which are "generally" 20% of your EL are:

Comps = EL * .2 = (25)*(.2) = $5.

So what does this mean? ASSUMING perfect play, wonging out at TC < -1, playing $25-$125, with a $12,500 bankroll, you'll make about $9/hour from the main game, and "optimistically" make another $5/hour in comps.

So what does this mean in reality? Well, you're going to make mistakes, probably not have the discipline to ALWAYS wong out at TC < -1, probably don't have a $12.5k bankroll for "milking" the casino, and probably won't get 100 hands per hour. Your real hourly average would probably be like $5/hour, and the casino comps (while generically 20% of your EL) could vary pending casino. Don't forget if you're getting less hands per hour (or even if the PB just rates the table at 70 hph) that's going to affect your comps because it makes your EL lower. So AT BEST you're gonna get $5/hour in comps, but more realistically something like $3.75/hour.

Overall you're going to put in a ton of effort, pull aside $10k+ for a bankroll, learn this new skill enough to perform it as flawlessly as possible, and you MIGHT at the end of the day (best case scenario) end up making about $14/hour, with $5/hour of that being tied up in comps, not cash. REALISTICALLY you're going to end up making about $8.75/hour, with $3.75/hour being tied up in comps, not cash. If you want, you can do it, but to me it realllllly doesn't seem worth it?

If you are going to use a small spread, there are two things that are imperative. One is that the game have a relatively low house edge. The second is that you don't play, at least some of the worst of the negative counts, by wonging in and out, carefully timed bathroom and phone call breaks, or just plain sitting out hands (if tolerated).

I will retell a story and info that amazed me as it happened.

It was towards the end of my Atlantic City days. At Borgata, which had the best rules and lowest house edge at the time, I would sometimes encounter an older gentleman that was counting, but only spreading 1-2 (occasionally 1-3) at the $25 minimum tables. At that time, my mode of transportation to and from AC was the train that ran between Phila and AC. This gentleman also rode the train, as he lived a half hour outside of Atlantic City (either Egg Harbor city or Hammonton, don't remember).

So one day I struck up a conversation. I told him he was still playing a losing game, with his insignificant spread. He countered that he wasn't. ?? He said his spread and sitting out all negative true counts more than -1, resulted in a small profit of $4-5 and hour. and this was greater than the profit he would make from playing $5 and $10 games on the boardwalk with a bigger spread and higher house edge. In addition, he said, he received more comps this way.....enough for an inexpensive free meal each day and being a widower, that was important to him.

I had a real hard time accepting his explanation. I did know that he jumped in and out with bathroom breaks and at times just sat out hands saying something about the flow of cards. So, when I got home, I ran some computer sims and sure enough, when I jiggled the figures a bit, especially the not playing most negative counts, numbers came up pretty close to what he was saying.

What I learned that day is if you are playing a game with a reasonably low house edge, it doesn't take all that much to 'flip' the game to even or slightly positive. Now, even or slightly positive isn't an amount most of us would find appealing or acceptable. The REAL key is escaping the worse of the negative counts.

And although I play much more aggressive spread than this gentleman, this opened my eyes to the huge importance of escaping the worse of those negative counts and situations and from that day forward I incorporated escaping at least some negative counts into my game. I have incorporated bits and pieces learned from many different players and sources into what is my current game and on that day a retired widower, spreading 1-2 added a valuable piece to my game. :)

Thanks for the replies I appreciate the feedback. I suppose another large concern is that I don't really bring alot in terms of a session banroll. I usually buy in at a 5 dollar table with 100 bucks. Playing basic strategy. Sometimes I can last for a real long time and others I might lose some fast with some bad luck. This is just flat betting. I am supposing that even if counting and using even just a small spread that variance will take even more money in a given time as instead of flat betting there might be more units on table.... Maybe the best course of action may be to just enjoy the game and accept the slight HE? Would there be any reason to count and just make index plays and still flat bet? Obviously it won't beat the game but I am assuming it has to help a small bit.

Quote: brettecantwell

Thanks for the replies I appreciate the feedback. I suppose another large concern is that I don't really bring alot in terms of a session banroll. I usually buy in at a 5 dollar table with 100 bucks. Playing basic strategy. Sometimes I can last for a real long time and others I might lose some fast with some bad luck. This is just flat betting. I am supposing that even if counting and using even just a small spread that variance will take even more money in a given time as instead of flat betting there might be more units on table.... Maybe the best course of action may be to just enjoy the game and accept the slight HE? Would there be any reason to count and just make index plays and still flat bet? Obviously it won't beat the game but I am assuming it has to help a small bit.

If you're going to count just for index plays then you might as well use something like the Tens Count and just focus on Insurance, as that's the majority of the EV from Index Plays.

If you're playing at a $5 table, a $5-$25 spread would net you pennies, and that doesn't include mistakes/etc. You're also correct in that it would actually up your variance, because it would up your average bet (probably to something like $11). You'd also want to take a session bank roll much more than $100, and even if you're "counting for comps" you're still going to need a bankroll that can withstand going bust. Thus, you'd still need at least a $2-$3k bank roll overall, and probably take like $300-$400 with you per night (not that you'd need that all the time, but just as a sufficient session bankroll).

Overall it sounds like you're underfunded to do much at this game. I would not recommend learning a counting system just for index plays / insurance. You're really not getting much out of that. My honest recommendations are these:

1) I don't think you want to count for money. You're just trying to lose less. For your time, effort, and lack of bank roll, it doesn't really sound feasible for you to count. Just stick to flat betting $5, and concentrate on playing PERFECT basic strategy. One change you can incorporate is you SHOULD play continuous shufflers as it actually lowers the house edge by like .02%. If you're losing EL = (5)(100)(-.005) = $2.50/hour, but they rate your EL with 1% or more, then they'll comp you COMP = EL * .2 = (5)*(.2) = $1/hour. Thus, you can limit your losses to only about $1.50/hour. This is probably the best way to limit your losses with minimal effort.

2) You learn Hi/Low, save up your money (approx $6-$8k), and count spreading $25-$75, wonging out at TC < -1. Without formally running the numbers I think this would yield you about $8/hour. You should get a few bucks per hour in comps as well (COMP = $2.75) . This should at least put in you in the double digit per hour earning. Then you'd be playing a winning game, and with a small spread of $25-$75 it should limit your variance, though admittedly this is going to be more money than you're used to playing with/for.

Yeah I've got basic strategy memorized well. No real issue there. Reason I don't play too much a session and just flat bet is I know I'm playing a losing game. If I were to get my skills improved and know mathematically I could actually count and not lose money it would be alot easier to justify setting aside a bankroll just for blackjack and play higher bets. Sounds like flat betting is going to be my best bet for now. I'll probably continue to try and practice counting as a side goal as Im sure it cannot hurt to know how the shoe is doing even if I don't make any sort of move to take an advantage. At very least I could wong out with real bad shoes or maybe take the insurance bet if warranted like you mentioned. Or maybe not.... knowing the count might just add unneeded temptation..


Is it even feasible for a person to count cards and win at a single casino and not get caught or does it really require a person to hop around? I'm guessing to make any real money you need to play aggressively which draws heat thus requiring you to move around...

Quote: brettecantwell

...Is it even feasible for a person to count cards and win at a single casino and not get caught or does it really require a person to hop around? I'm guessing to make any real money you need to play aggressively which draws heat thus requiring you to move around...

This might vary pending whom you talk to, but in my opinion it's quite possible. Most counters, especially weekend warriors that go on trips, usually have a "home casino" they have a card with an use to get rooms for trips/etc. They'll count at these places, but with a smaller spread because they know they're not trying to make money, just get comped rooms/meals/whatever for their trips where they can go and count hard at other places. If you're going to count at "one" casino for your lifetime, well, eventually they'll catch on. There's a LOT you can do to deter this event from happening though... Playing short sessions, moving pits (or enough tables down you know a diff PB is watching) after exposing max bets, free camo, sometimes camo with a cost, going on different shifts, keeping a chip inventory to keep PB interactions down, etc, etc.

I explain a lot more about these topics in my 3 articles... They're a lot to read, but they should answer any and all basic questions you may have (and a lottttt more):

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

If you're going to a place where everybody knows you, and you're just looking to break even while milking comps, why not scout out some video poker and play heavily on multiplier days (if available)? If you start changing the way you play at the blackjack tables with a 1-5 or 1-8 spread, where every dealer knows you and knows you only flat bet, this might raise an eyebrow or two, and since you mentioned you don't want to get booted, why risk it? The money you'll wager at blackjack is insignificant compared to the money you'll wager at video poker in relation to the comps you'll receive. There are a MILLION ways to "work" the comps system.

Without getting in too deep, I'll just put it like this. There are 4 casinos near me that I frequent, few others that I do not. They mail me ~750 per month, per casino to come play, with hotel offers ranging from 2-8 nights per month, and 2-6 free buffets. Almost all of this is done exclusively with video poker and machine plays. I do this for a means of financial support, since my "job" is to "work" the casinos for profit as an AP. Between the 4 of them, I'll take home roughly ~2700 per month just on their slotplay, while I play a "breakeven" game during their point multiplier days. Now, obviously, this is a little bit more involved than some of you want to get into, and I understand that. My question is more along the lines of, what is it YOU are looking to get out of this, and from the casino?

Exoter has a really good answer, and view of different ideas of "milking" the comps. It was my understanding the OP wanted to play blackjack because he likes it and he just didn't want to be playing a losing game... but perhaps this will give the OP more to think about? Report back if you find 9/6 JoB with point multiplier days and a good comp / return rate =D.

Yeah to be honest i am not real concerned with the comps, just figured they might be nice, thats why i mentioned it originally. This casino does have some 9/6 JOB but unfortunately they dont reward you points on the card for playing it, if it did i would play it alot more.. Unless they still comp you knowing that you play it?? There is another casino about 20 miles away that does award points for VP play at 10 dollar coin in for 1 point, but its 8/6 pay table.

I do enjoy the table games mostly and yes am just looking to make my money last longer. I think i can see how involved really counting for money is and I dont think i have the time to spend to get to that level. Just looking for the next step after memorizing basic strategy that can help my game.

Quote: brettecantwell

Yeah to be honest i am not real concerned with the comps, just figured they might be nice, thats why i mentioned it originally. This casino does have some 9/6 JOB but unfortunately they dont reward you points on the card for playing it, if it did i would play it alot more.. Unless they still comp you knowing that you play it?? There is another casino about 20 miles away that does award points for VP play at 10 dollar coin in for 1 point, but its 8/6 pay table.

I do enjoy the table games mostly and yes am just looking to make my money last longer. I think i can see how involved really counting for money is and I dont think i have the time to spend to get to that level. Just looking for the next step after memorizing basic strategy that can help my game.

The next step after basic strategy is the leap to counting, I'm afraid. If you want your money to last longer, I really don't have much advice for you beyond the leap.

I will say this, card counting is not a difficult thing to do at its core, I could teach anyone to do it. Its when you start adding index plays, memorizing just a few dozen or even hundreds to squeeze +EV that it becomes more difficult, but don't be put off by it. With a lot of practice, many of us have become very successful in our own right in doing it, it just takes time, patience, and discipline.

Arnold Snyder's easy but effective Red7 count essentially says that if you can add and subtract by one and two, you can count and therefore play a winning game (if the conditions are right). I always believed that. 'Blackbelt in Blackjack' by Arnold Snyder is a pretty good book for someone taking baby steps into the world of counting. Very easy to read and understand.

By the way, the Red 7 count is what's categorized as an unbalanced count, which means that you don't have to divide the running count by number of decks remaining -which happens to be the tough part of learning to count for someone just starting out.