Bankroll Size for $25 Min?

Hello,

I'm new to the forum, so apologies if this has been addressed before, but any tips would be welcomed. Long story short: I used to play Blackjack a lot about 6-7 years ago, busted out of my bankroll then quit gambling. Anyway I'm back into it again! In the past I used the A/5 count and got lucky (for a while), but I figured I'd learn from my mistakes and improve my game, so I picked up the Hi-Lo. I had a successful "test" run at the tables last week, however I noticed some new (to me anyway) and annoying trends since I started going back to casinos on the regular:

It's almost impossible to find a table that stands on soft 17.
Blackjack pays 6:5 wtf????
To get any decent rules, you have to play at least $25 min a hand

I don't have a lot of disposable income at the moment, but I'm looking to build up a bankroll. I figure I could play conservatively, keep a relatively low spread, utilize the Hi-Lo count, try to break even til the count is in my favor. I got lucky this past weekend, bought in with 400, doubled up a few hours later. But I realize that I'm going to need a bigger bankroll than that to sustain my play. Anyone got a ballpark of what size bankroll I should run with given this playing style?

Also, bigger question: since getting back into Blackjack, I noticed the rules changing pretty fast in house favor. I could get pretty liberal rules at $10 min table back in 2008 (this was also mostly at Foxwoods & Mohegan). What do you think is in store for Blackjack in the next 5-10 years? Will counting eventually be made obsolete?

Thanks for reading this and any input!
SB

Hey Steve, welcome to the forums! You're in the right place as there's a lot of intelligent part/full time AP and math minds running around here. It sounds like you've indeed learned a bit from your past and your heart is in the right place. You are absolutely correct about the rule changes; it's quite difficult to find good games now days that aren't either $25 min or a counter trap (or both). As a start I should hope you know that you should NEVER play 6:5. The simple rule change from 3:2 to 6:5 ups the house edge 1.39% (as noted in both the Wizard's Rule Variations and sited in my 3 A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack Articles). So if you're playing a S17 game that's normally about .4% HE, but they have 6:5 blackjack payouts, you're now playing a game that's 1.79% and you'd need a TC of +4 to even be breaking the barrier in to positive expectation.

Your question is one of many people whom have a base understanding on the topic but then come to the conundrum that is Bankroll Management. I explain in much much more detail about it in my articles (article 1 to be more specific) but to sum it up: it depends. If you're trying to play with a low Risk of Ruin (RoR) then by the "old rules" you'd need 100 max bets, or more. Today I would recommend running a sim of your action game to find out, but even 100 max bets is okay to get some educated numbers off of. So if you're playing a quarter game, what's your max bet?

On the opposite hand, what is your bankroll? As this can also define your max bet. It's a two way street. Are you limited by your bankroll? How much are you looking to make? To give you at least some idea, I went ahead and pulled up one of my handy spreadsheets (which I explain in article 1 how you should make one of these) and plugged in some numbers:

Game: 6D, 3:2, S17, DAS, DA2, Resplit to 4 hands, NS... .4% HE.
Spread: $25 - $300 (TC +1 = 50, TC +2 = 100, TC +3 = 200, TC +4 (and up) = 300).

For this game/spread you're looking at an hourly EV (assuming 100 hands per hour) of: $41.19

*This assumes you wong out at anything less than TC -1. You shouldn't use this spread on DD as it's probably a bit much and will draw attention.

So what does this mean for your bankroll? Well, we didn't even have to get an hourly EV to estimate that! Your max bet is $300... Well, to get your bankroll around 1% RoR you'd need 100 max bets, or $30,000. Don't freak out that you don't have $30k, this just means you must be willing to invest $30k in order to take on the casino with this approach (game/spread/etc). Another way to calculate this that's mentioned in Article 3 is standard deviations.

So you don't have $30k, okay, what can we do? Well, you'd need at least a session bankroll to be playing, which at that level I would recommend being around $2k-$3k, or 6-10 big bets. So if you don't have that, I would recommend either playing lower stakes, or practicing more and saving up to build your bankroll. After you have at least a session or two, you can play from a "theoretical" bank roll if you want, but you need to understand what that means. That means you can play now, pretending you have $30k because your bankroll is "refundable." Which means you're going to continue to contribute money to it until you don't need to or you get in $30k. This enables you to play as though you have a $30k bankroll and employ the game above, but like I said, if needed, you need to be able to go $30k deep (over time) to make the math of this work.

Given your questions and story, I really like where your head is at, but I do want to caution you to learn a bit more before you go play. Feel free to correct me, but it doesn't seem like you would have been able to work out your own hourly EV for the games you've been playing. If you can't do that, you fall in to the biggest trap of them all: You think you have a winning game, but you very well might not. You must know and be able to prove you have a winning game before I'd recommend playing in a casino for money. Take a look at my 3 articles and a LOT more should become clear/calculable. You should be able to answer your own questions above, as well as give me an hourly EV for your game/spread. Then my friend, you'll know you have a winning game and be ready to play =).

Thanks so much for the response! This is really helpful. I'm no math whiz, but I think I have a decent understanding of probability. I stayed away from the 6:5 tables like the plague. I have been running simulations at home with 4 decks and poker chips as I try put a cohesive strategy together. When I hit the tables this weekend, it dawned on me that I would need a way to calculate an hourly win rate to get a grip on profitability so I'm not wasting my time and figure out a bank roll that could sustain the inevitable bad breaks, at least for while. I was really at loss on how to do that.

Currently, I have about $1500 that I can play with right now, but I can also save up for a couple months. When I was playing this weekend, my max bet was $200. I work a full time job, so my goal with Blackjack for the immediate future was just to hopefully make a couple hundred extra bucks a month. Not looking to get rich quick and I know from my past experience that it can all evaporate.

Another question: what do you mean by a "counter trap"? Do casinos deliberately try to weed out counters and how can I tell? I figured since I was playing relatively low stakes, no one would pay me too much attention. Although I did notice after paying through a few shoes, the dealer started cutting the deck differently. He went from cutting like less than a deck (in a 6 deck game) to cutting ~1.5 - 2 decks. The pit boss didn't come sniffing around, so I assumed I was cool. Was I being a big red flag without knowing it?

Thanks again!

Didn't read the whole thread. Sorry. But with a $25 min bet, bring $8,000. That's just me. I like a lot behind me. I've lost $1,400 in ten minutes playing a $25 to $200 spread at DD. I would say that a $4,000 bankroll for a trip with a 25-200 spread would work 90+% of the time (if you can count, make index plays, etc.).

Ah, you're in the exact spot a lot of counters get in to (and I did myself). You learn to count, then think you can win! Until you can quantify what you're doing (i.e. show profitability like you mentioned) you aren't winning anything yet. Like I said prior I think you've got a decent idea and you're definitely heading in the right direction. I shall once again highly encourage you to read the 3 A to Z articles =). They cover everything you need to know to then 'know' you have a winning game.

A counter trap is a table or two in a casino that happens to have AMAZING rules. Say most of the casino is 8D H17, then you stumble on this very tiny pit of 4 tables that are all S17. Two of them are DD, with surrender and great PEN. Wow, what a game! Well, it is a great game, but with something that good I'd be on high alert. A lot of casinos will make a great game like that because they know counters will flock to it. Thus, they'll give extra scrutiny and attention to anyone whom plays at those DD tables. If you sit down at a table and someone already thinks you're a counter, it's really not hard to figure your game out, especially at double deck where the count changes so frequently your bet will be up and down with the count a lot. If you're on vacation, or have a lot of places to play, well then perhaps attack these tables with a modest spread and 'feel it out' first. However, if your goal is something more permanent, you don't want bared, and you desire longevity, then I'd recommend playing 6D S17 over DD even. The hard part about spotting a counter trap is you need to observe someone playing it, or you need to play it to see just how much scrutiny any play at the table is getting.

You probably weren't getting too much heat with $25-$200. Perhaps the dealer was sloppily cutting less than a deck to shuffle less, didn't care, etc. Then perhaps he knew the PB was watching him on one or two so he followed protocol and cut 1.5-2 off. When it comes to heat, it's an extra sense you'll pick up overtime. If you're in doubt though whether or not it was targeting you, why not just leave and come back another day? Heat and back offs are also covered in Article 2 =P.

Thanks again for your help! Reviewing your articles today. I'll study up and post my progress in a few months. This forum is a great resource, hopefully I'll be able to contribute someday. - SB

For a $25 table, the minimum bankroll requirement is $25. But you would need at least a bit more to cover all basic strategy splits and doubles. . .

You can find Kelly Criterion calculators online. For most profitable blackjack play, the general rule is 100-times you maximum bet. That is based around a roughly 1% edge on the biggest bet. Most gamblers feel half-Kelly is more appropriate. (if you can't come close to estimating your edge, this formula says you should never play the game)

Quote: SteveButte

I don't have a lot of disposable income at the moment,

Your bankroll is all your assets, not just disposable ones. Also, if you don't have much, then losing everything isn't as much of a set back as it would be otherwise -- at least not if you have a paycheck coming in every week or two.

Ideally you should be able to start with a $5 to $50 spread and repeat until rich. But you have to start at $25 minimums, so maybe that means taking on a big chance of losing everything