16 vs 10

Hello,

I play 6 decks, no surrender, ENHC

Base Strategy say:
16 with 2 cards vs 10 : Hit.
16 with 3 cards or more vs 10 : Stand.

But https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/hand-calculator/ say
10+2+2+2 : Hit

I don't understand.

You are splitting hairs with this one, it has been discussed before.

The basic strategy tries to give you the best EV without too much complexity. The basic strategy does NOT give you the best EV in every situation. But the fact is, the difference between always hitting and always standing here is really small. You can be successful flipping a coin in this situation.

The more advanced play is to change what you do based on a count, where if there are more low cards left, you hit.

EDIT - I like surrenders response better lol ^^^^^^^^^^

Rounding to the thousands decimal place, they're essentially the same:

HIT: -.577
STAND: -.578

I'm imagining the engine says to hit because of ENHC, or a bug in the software. Off of a 'fresh' deal you shouldn't hit 3 card 16's, let alone 4 card 16's. Then again this is for my understanding of the game, which mostly revolves around non ENHC games. In this situation, for a hi/low count the running count is +1, and you should never hit your 16 when the count is positive (basic strategy shows the index of 0 for hitting 16).

I've in fact been curious of another anomaly... If you're in LAST POSITION only, and you have 16 to dealer 10 (before they draw their 2nd card - euro style) why would you EVER hit? If you draw a card to make your hand (2-3-4-5) then basic strategy would have told you to stand had that been the dealers card. If you pull a card that makes you bust, then the dealer makes a hand anyways so you lose either way. I don't understand why you wouldn't ALWAYS stand with 16 if you're in LAST POSITION only (so the next card is either going to you or the dealer). My guess is it comes down to the math of the game, and the average hands being made and just needing to hit, but simple logic about the unknown next card seems to dictate not hitting.

Quote: surrender88s

You are splitting hairs with this one, it has been discussed before.

The basic strategy tries to give you the best EV without too much complexity. The basic strategy does NOT give you the best EV in every situation. But the fact is, the difference between always hitting and always standing here is really small. You can be successful flipping a coin in this situation.

The more advanced play is to change what you do based on a count, where if there are more low cards left, you hit.

Thanks
I agree that it's "couper les cheveux en quatre" but many charts adds this special case.
So it seems important for beginner.

There's a few other cases you didn't list, and also I'm not sure I follow your logic on the cases you listed.

Top card is 2-5:
Hit, you make 18-21, dealer is playing a 10 and May/not beat you
Stand, dealer makes a stiff hand, but still has a chance to beat you.
(So I don't see how this is obviously better or worse to hit or stand, you need to know the probabilities of how the dealers hand will play out)

Top card is 6:
Hit, you bust
Stand, dealer makes 16, you can hope he would then bust
(So this seems to say Stand)

Top card is 7-10:
Hit, you bust
Stand, dealer makes hand, you lose
(So you are screwed either way)

Top card is A:
Hit, you make 17, still playing against a dealer 10
Stand, dealer makes 21
(This seems to say Hitting is better, though you are still an underdog)

Given there is at least 1/13 chance that hitting is the better play, and 4/13 chance of "need to do more math", I don't see how you can purely logic your way into a decision.

Firstly it is a very close decision, so for practical purposes it's best to go with your gut feel for whether there are more low cards left than normal. For technical purposes it matters which cards you have, typically the ones which give you a 20 and 21 have a high importance, so if there's less of these then it swings the decision. Thus I can believe you hit T222 vs T ( https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/3b/ ).

I play ENHC and don't think the way cyrus does - the main difference is when the next two cards were both small, in which case it was usually better to have taken a card, but other situations by and large offset each other. A similar situation applies to 13's vs 2 and 12's vs 4.

There will always be people at the table who, with hindsight, say you shouldn't have done X. The important thing is to either be consistent or find some metric (e.g. counting) which swings the decision one way or the other. Occasionally I will inform other players that I will be taking a card (I nearly always hit 16 vs 10 as it's easier that way). btw if you're counting and adjusting your bet there's an argument for always standing.

I did an analysis of the cited appendix a while ago in an attempt to derive a simple optimal strategy. This is what I came up with:

Three-card 16 vs. 10: Hit when you have a 10 or 6 except when you also have a 5. Expected return -0.539615

Quote: charliepatrick

btw if you're counting and adjusting your bet there's an argument for always standing.

A STRONG argument. :) For those that may not know, it's called counter's basic strategy. Here is some reasoning:

For all intensive purposes at a count of zero, it's a push. Standing may cost you a thousandth of a penny. The only time you will be making the wrong play is negative counts. Many counters, myself included play minimal negative counts (wong out aggressively) and when you are playing and make the 'wrong' play, you have your minimum wager out so the cost is very minimal. All other times, upwards of 80% of the time you are making the correct play and 100% of the time that you have any wager larger than minimum you are making the correct play.

So the cost is minimal. That begs the question, why give up anything when you have the ability to make correct play 100%. Answer: How a player plays 16 vs 10, which is one of the most common hands, is one of the single most play that is used to identify counters. 16 vs 10 and Insurance are the top two. Specifically playing one way at certain times and playing the other way at other times.

So for the cost of almost nothing, a fraction of a penny to a couple penny depending on your stakes, literally, you have eliminated one of the leading indicators used to identify counters. I am not a big 'cover guy'. The edge from card counting is just too slim to give much back in the form of cover. But this one is a no brainer. The benefit tremendously outweighs the cost.

Quote: kewlj

For all intensive purposes .

Hey. 8-)

I watched a superintendent of schools addressing the town recently and he repeatedly mispronounced accreditation. Oh well, I guess it was a mute point since no one else caught it. :-)

Quote: kewlj

For all intensive purposes

The correct expression is : "For all intents and purposes"


To OP: For 16 vs 10, the effect of removing a 2 from the deck is smaller than the effect of removing a 3,4 or 5. If you hit 16 and get a 2 it will only promote your hand to an 18 -which is still a losing hand. A 10-2-2-2 vs 10 happens to concentrate 3 of "the least impactful low card" in the players hand, which is why it is an exception to the rule.

Quote: 1BB

a mute point

A moot point :-). But for all intensive purposes, I know what you meant.

Quote: surrender88s

A moot point :-). But for all intensive purposes, I know what you meant.

You and me should start a thread on misused words. Would anyone like a thread started by surrender88s and I? :-) Still doing the smiley. :-)

Quote: kewlj

...
So for the cost of almost nothing, a fraction of a penny to a couple penny depending on your stakes, literally, you have eliminated one of the leading indicators used to identify counters. I am not a big 'cover guy'. The edge from card counting is just too slim to give much back in the form of cover. But this one is a no brainer. The benefit tremendously outweighs the cost.

Kewlj, based on the above is it safe to say that you always stand on 16 vs 6?

Quote: DRich

Kewlj, based on the above is it safe to say that you always stand on 16 vs 6?

The thread is about 16 vs 10. Yes I always stand 16 vs 10. For what it's worth I stand 16 vs 6 as well. :)

Quote: 1BB

You and me should start a thread on misused words. Would anyone like a thread started by surrender88s and I? :-) Still doing the smiley. :-)

;-) is a smiley and a wink, use when you want them to think you might be flirting. Or kidding or just when you feel the need to be obnoxious....giggle, giggle.

Quote: kewlj

The thread is about 16 vs 10. Yes I always stand 16 vs 10. For what it's worth I stand 16 vs 6 as well. :)

Obviously, 16v10. Thank you

Quote: 1BB

You and me should start a thread on misused words. Would anyone like a thread started by surrender88s and I? :-) Still doing the smiley. :-)

You and I. You should start. I should start. You and I should start.

Quote: HipsterDood

You and I. You should start. I should start. You and I should start.

Is you one o'them liberal edumacated grammar perverts???

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Is you one o'them liberal edumacated grammar perverts???

Have you read this thread?

Quote: HipsterDood

Have you read this thread?

Do you realize this thread was dead for more than a year, and you bumped it to make a grammar correction?