$200 win session(s), likely or not likely
I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).
Best!
Quote: hpntqNewbie here,
I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).
Best!
Welcome fellow blackjack player! I'm going to give it to you straight because I assume that's the way you want it. It's all about the bankroll and you are seriously underfunded.
Per the "Probability of Loss" table on this link,
If you play 100 hands, you are likely to lose 15 units 10% of the time when playing basic strategy with a minimum bet and a 0.4% house edge. That's a loss of $225 or more, 10% of the time.
Believe it or not, if you use a great counting method, and play perfectly, and get to something like a 1.5% player advantage, you will actually lose MORE than this, MORE than 10% of the time. This is because instead of betting 15 a hand, you will be betting much more at high counts.
Just one way to look at your question.
Quote: hpntqNewbie here,
I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).
Best!
The good news is that you can easily win $100-200 in a session at a $15 min table -- this is only 7-13 units per session. Depending on the spread you could make this in one or two hands.
The bad news is that you could also lose your $1000 BR in one or two sessions at a $15 min table since your BR is only around 67 units!
The standard deviation per 100 hands (SD/100) for most games is usually somewhere between 20-30 units. For larger spreads, which you'll need to beat shoe games, this is typically over 30 units. About 34.1% of the time you will lose between 0 and 1 standard deviation, and about 13.6% of the time you will lose between 1 and 2 standard deviations. (Replace "lose" with "win" if you're an optimist.)
From these observations it's clear that you could easily lose your entire BR in one trip.
Quote: hpntqWhat up BB! thanks for the welcome! and straight up answers are the best, much appreciated. As for the bank roll, 2 follow up questions. 1) would a funded roll be 4-5k? I know its still low as opposed to some people starting with 10k and up. 2) with a 4-5k BR or a 10k + BR are you also insisting that this money should be money I am OK to lose with?
The old bankroll standard was always 100 max bets. Assuming a 1-16 betting spread your max bet would be $240. Your bankroll would be $24k. That was before the ability to do simulations. I still would not be uncomfortable adhering to that standard but it's no longer one size fits all. Sims can now be run that are tailored to your exact game inputting every bit of information including rules, betting spread, number of people at the table, count used, wonging and the color of your socks. Okay maybe not that last one.
How much money you are okay losing is an individual thing and everyone has their own threshold. Losing is not an option for me so I am not okay losing anything at the blackjack table. I am often disappointed. :-)
This idea of making $200 per session......that's really not how blackjack works. You might be able to earn $200 in EV (expected value) per session, with a bigger bankroll. But the reality is that you might go many sessions, many days, many weeks, even months, playing a 'winning' game but not winning a dime. Then all of the sudden, it turns and you start winning buckets full. That's variance and that is a huge part of this game.
I get the feeling you would like card counting to be like a job, where you can depend on a set amount every session, day or week, and it really doesn't work like that.
Quote: kewlj1BB hit on the way underfunded bankroll part. But that is only part of the bad news.
This idea of making $200 per session......that's really not how blackjack works. You might be able to earn $200 in EV (expected value) per session, with a bigger bankroll. But the reality is that you might go many sessions, many days, many weeks, even months, playing a 'winning' game but not winning a dime. Then all of the sudden, it turns and you start winning buckets full. That's variance and that is a huge part of this game.
I get the feeling you would like card counting to be like a job, where you can depend on a set amount every session, day or week, and it really doesn't work like that.
I the latter part of your post is what I have been "trying" to convince myself, but the more I read, the more I realize that its total unlikely to make $200/s and swap it for my part time work. I wanted it to replace my part time job! :P
Quote: 1BB
How much money you are okay losing is an individual thing and everyone has their own threshold. Losing is not an option for me so I am not okay losing anything at the blackjack table. I am often disappointed. :-)
Losing kills my soul haha
Quote: hpntqI the latter part of your post is what I have been "trying" to convince myself, but the more I read, the more I realize that its total unlikely to make $200/s and swap it for my part time work. I wanted it to replace my part time job! :P
The only way playing BJ part-time could replace a part-time job, is if you don't 'need' the income from that part-time job for regular living expenses. If your living expenses comes from somewhere else, like your primary job, and you are working a part-time job and using that money to save for some longer term project or expense, then card counting could work, if you really learn to do it correctly.
Quote: kewljThe only way playing BJ part-time could replace a part-time job, is if you don't 'need' the income from that part-time job for regular living expenses. If your living expenses comes from somewhere else, like your primary job, and you are working a part-time job and using that money to save for some longer term project or expense, then card counting could work, if you really learn to do it correctly.
Wow, there's been a lot of fantastic responses in this thread and I think all of them have hit it on the head. From being underfunded, to the variance of the game NEVER guaranteeing 1 particular session will be a winner. The way I like to explain it to people is there's this pot of gold. Every time you make a bigger bet in a positive situation, you're putting anything from pennies to dollars in to this pot of gold. When you hit "the long run," which is after so many hands, then you'll see your guaranteed results and have money from that pot of gold. Now don't get me wrong. I'm not saying you'll lose for 500 hours straight then suddenly win. I'm just trying to put the variance in perspective. On any given night you could win a grand, or lose a grand, but if you're playing correctly in the long run this will balance out to your expected value (EV). So when you see us talk about making $X per hour, this is just what it will mathematically average out to, not how much you will actually make per hour per night.
It sounds like you have a start and some base knowledge in the subject. From here you're missing smaller concepts (bankroll management, how to form your spread accordingly, and how to calculate the EV of your games). I probably sound like a salesman promoting my A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack thread, but honestly, the reason I made this thread was to put all of this information that was scattered about in to one place, and to try to make it more user friendly/understandable. Please give it a read, then a reread, and I think it'll answer a LOT of your questions =). Also, I expanded the thread more than 4x and it's going to be released as 3 articles under the articles section above, so I would say keep a look out for those as well!
Don't think you have a winning game, know you have a winning game.
Quote: RomesI probably sound like a salesman promoting my A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack thread, but honestly, the reason I made this thread was to put all of this information that was scattered about in to one place, and to try to make it more user friendly/understandable. Please give it a read, then a reread, and I think it'll answer a LOT of your questions =). Also, I expanded the thread more than 4x and it's going to be released as 3 articles under the articles section above, so I would say keep a look out for those as well!
Don't think you have a winning game, know you have a winning game.
Ill check it out romes, thanks.
