Taking even money on insurance
Quote: RdavidleemdI understand that taking insurance is a sucker bet, and I totally understand that on a 3:2 blackjack payout taking even money favors the house. However, I just got back from Vegas and most tables on the strip that accommodated low-rollers like me were 6:5 payouts. I'm not a mathematician by any stretch of the imagination, but when I crunch the numbers it sure seems like taking even money on these tables actually favors the player. Please correct me or help me or talk me through this. Am I correct?
You're not allowed even money on a 6:5 game. But you are correct, if offered it, take it!
Quote: IbeatyouracesYou're not allowed even money on a 6:5 game. But you are correct, if offered it, take it!
I never realized that until just now. Obviously it makes sense since even money is just insurance but it never dawned on me.
edit before anyone squeals I checked with the manager afterwards, it was one of their un-advertised perks.
Quote: charliepatrickI was once offered even money on a 1:1 game - naturally I took it. So there's no harm in asking.
edit before anyone squeals I checked with the manager afterwards, it was one of their un-advertised perks.
Some even-money Blackjack games have a policy of "autowin even money" - in return for the reduced payout, a player's BJ automatically wins. Depends on the variant.
Say you were playing blackjack and were sitting at first base. You see the next card that is going to be dealt out is an ace before you place your bet. Knowing this is an advantageous situation you put a $500 bet out even though the count is neutral or slightly negative. You get a Blackjack but the dealer is showing an Ace.
In this circumstance would you take even money because of the extraordinary circumstance, or would you wave off insurance knowing that in the long run you will make more money not taking insurance especially when the count does not warrant it?
*Also assume you are a fairly low stakes player with your usual max bet being $100.
Quote: Mow21I have a question about taking even money also (while card counting).
Say you were playing blackjack and were sitting at first base. You see the next card that is going to be dealt out is an ace before you place your bet. Knowing this is an advantageous situation you put a $500 bet out even though the count is neutral or slightly negative. You get a Blackjack but the dealer is showing an Ace.
In this circumstance would you take even money because of the extraordinary circumstance, or would you wave off insurance knowing that in the long run you will make more money not taking insurance especially when the count does not warrant it?
*Also assume you are a fairly low stakes player with your usual max bet being $100.
I've had this situation. Table maxed the bet. I did NOT take insurance. Dealer didn't have a blackjack.
Now that's just me. Should you take it? No. But obviously under some circumstances, others will take it.
Quote: Mow21I have a question about taking even money also (while card counting).
General: Insurance is a good play if the probability of a dealer natural exceeds the cost of insurance divided by the payout.
In most cases ("Insurance pays 2 to 1"), that means it's a good bet when the probability of blackjack exceeds 50%. (My scribbles say higher than TC+2.5, although this is probably wrong.)
In the case of "even money" on a 6:5 table, that means it's a good bet when the probability of blackjack exceeds 20%. (My scribbles say higher than TC-1.4, although this is probably wrong.)
Insurance is always a good bet if you know the dealer has a blackjack. (Probability=1)
Insurance is never a good bet if you know the dealer does not have a blackjack. (Probability=0)
Are you getting $500 Ace coupons or something?Quote: Mow21I have a question about taking even money also (while card counting).
Say you were playing blackjack and were sitting at first base. You see the next card that is going to be dealt out is an ace before you place your bet. Knowing this is an advantageous situation you put a $500 bet out even though the count is neutral or slightly negative. You get a Blackjack but the dealer is showing an Ace.
In this circumstance would you take even money because of the extraordinary circumstance, or would you wave off insurance knowing that in the long run you will make more money not taking insurance especially when the count does not warrant it?
*Also assume you are a fairly low stakes player with your usual max bet being $100.
I have taken even money while using Ace coupons but mainly because I can quickly move on. Also sometimes the dealers get confused if they should pay it like a BJ or just pay even money. It's better not to get the floor involved.
Let's do some quick math to see how bad of a bet insurance is. There are 16/52 face cards (I'm not going to remove 2 aces and 1 ten from the deck, just to make the math easier). That means insurance has a probability of 30.7..% to be correct. In other words, if I "gamble", then 69.3% of the time I'll win the extra 0.5 bet and 30.7% of the time I'll win 0.
With a $1K bet out, 0.693 * $1,500 = $1,039. That is the value of the hand by "gambling" [not taking even money].
By taking even money, you automatically win $1,000.
So, you're giving up about $39 in EV by taking even money (on a $1K bet). So basically, you're giving up 3.9% in EV by taking even money. With such a large bet out there............if it was me..........I would almost certainly take even money.
Well, first of all, "everyone" knows that insurance is a bad bet (high HE).
But what they don't quite understand is that taking even money, although it is still a poor bet (same HE as regular insurance).....it has a very low frequency, since it only occurs when you get a BJ and the dealer has an Ace showing.
I *think* it was in Don Scheslinger's (sp?) book, it was written that if you always take even money when you get a BJ versus dealer Ace........the loss in EV is tiny. It would be along the lines of playing 99 hands per hour instead of 100 hands per hour [or something like that].
Quote: DieterGeneral: Insurance is a good play if the probability of a dealer natural exceeds the cost of insurance divided by the payout.
In most cases ("Insurance pays 2 to 1"), that means it's a good bet when the probability of blackjack exceeds 50%. (My scribbles say higher than TC+2.5.)
In the case of "even money" on a 6:5 table, that means it's a good bet when the probability of blackjack exceeds 20%. (My scribbles say higher than TC-1.4.)
Insurance is always a good bet if you know the dealer has a blackjack. (Probability=1)
Insurance is never a good bet if you know the dealer does not have a blackjack. (Probability=0)
What kind of a count system are you using? I'm so confused by your post.
If the TC is +2.5 (two point five), there are NOWHERE NEAR 50% of t/j/q/k in the deck.
If the TC is -1.4 (minus one point four) there is WAY MORE than 20% of t/j/q/k in the deck.
Insurance (at 2-to-1) is a good bet if the chance of a BJ exceeds 33.33%, NOT 50%. But, somehow that 2.5 figure is correct (I think it's really like 2.7 or something like that, at least in HiLo).
In a 6:5 game, even money would be proper if the chance of a BJ exceeds 1/6 (ie: 1 for every 6 cards is a Ten value). IF 1 in 6 cards are a Ten. Then there are 5 ways to win $5 for even money and $6 for "gambler", and 1 way to win $5 for even money and $0 for "gambler".
That puts even money at: 6/6 * $5 = $5 in EV.
Gambler is at: (5/6) * $6 = $30/6 = $5 in EV.
If 1/6 cards are tens, then both plays are equal.
If there are MORE than 1/6 tens remaining, then even money is a good bet. That means there has to be about 16.66% remaining tens. If every -5 TC means 4 faces and 1 ace is removed, and you need to remove about 8 face cards from the deck (to get 8/52 ~ 15.5%)......then as long as the TC is greater than -10, then taking even money on a 6:5 game is the proper play. If the TC is less than -10, then you should "gamble" and not take even money.
Quote: RS
What kind of a count system are you using? I'm so confused by your post.
If the TC is +2.5 (two point five), there are NOWHERE NEAR 50% of t/j/q/k in the deck.
If the TC is -1.4 (minus one point four) there is WAY MORE than 20% of t/j/q/k in the deck.
Cursed aces.
Yes, I see my error.
In my (almost) defense, Index is what... +3 on insurance? with hi/lo?
Quote: Mow21I have a question about taking even money also (while card counting).
Say you were playing blackjack and were sitting at first base. You see the next card that is going to be dealt out is an ace before you place your bet. Knowing this is an advantageous situation you put a $500 bet out even though the count is neutral or slightly negative. You get a Blackjack but the dealer is showing an Ace.
In this circumstance would you take even money because of the extraordinary circumstance, or would you wave off insurance knowing that in the long run you will make more money not taking insurance especially when the count does not warrant it?
*Also assume you are a fairly low stakes player with your usual max bet being $100.
This is a great example of the nerves getting to someone =). It shouldn't matter if you have $10 out on the felt or $10,000. If the count doesn't dictate for you to take insurance, then you don't. Now, the only exception to this is when there's "life changing" money on the line. Let's say you were on a game show and they made a $1 million bet for you and you got a blackjack vs dealer ace. Then it would appear a pretty good idea to take the even money and walk! However, if $500 won't drastically 'change your life' then you should only take insurance when the count dictates (TC +3). Otherwise, do the right thing and let it fly =).
I disagree assuming someone isn't counting.Quote: RomesThis is a great example of the nerves getting to someone =). It shouldn't matter if you have $10 out on the felt or $10,000. If the count doesn't dictate for you to take insurance, then you don't. Now, the only exception to this is when there's "life changing" money on the line. Let's say you were on a game show and they made a $1 million bet for you and you got a blackjack vs dealer ace. Then it would appear a pretty good idea to take the even money and walk! However, if $500 won't drastically 'change your life' then you should only take insurance when the count dictates (TC +3). Otherwise, do the right thing and let it fly =).
If they are not counting, then they shouldn't be playing, because its -ev.
Ok I get it, they are playing for entertainment. They are already making a bad decision playing a -EV game justified as entertainment, if that's the case they can justify a bad play as entertainment and the happiness of winning a sure thing and pocketing the money. %500 can bring a lot of happiness. getting scooped for $500 can make for regret, with I should've thoughts and unhappiness . Getting extra for the BJ won't really bring that much more happiness.
FYI. I think that DON'T HEDGE unless its life changing money is complete BS. If you're an underbanked AP and you can lock up a few thousand(NOT LIFE CHANGING MONEY) that you can put to work for yourself on something better, something that's +EV. YOU SHOULD ABSOLUTELY HEDGE.
Thou shalt not hedge your bets( if you have enough money that's not working for you.)
Quote: AxelWolfI disagree assuming someone isn't counting.
If they are not counting, then they shouldn't be playing, because its -ev.
Ok I get it, they are playing for entertainment. They are already making a bad decision playing a -EV game justified as entertainment, if that's the case they can justify a bad play as entertainment and the happiness of winning a sure thing and pocketing the money. %500 can bring a lot of happiness. getting scooped for $500 can make for regret, with I should've thoughts and unhappiness . Getting extra for the BJ won't really bring that much more happiness.
FYI. I think that DON'T HEDGE unless its life changing money is complete BS. If you're an underbanked AP and you can lock up a few thousand(NOT LIFE CHANGING MONEY) that you can put to work for yourself on something better, something that's +EV. YOU SHOULD ABSOLUTELY HEDGE.
Thou shalt not hedge your bets( if you have enough money that's not working for you.)
You do have a point for those playing for entertainment, but I guess we'll respectfully disagree? =p. They won't be getting scooped for $500 with a blackjack, at worse, they'll push. You do have a point that they're already playing negative so why not take the even money? However, the original question I responded to was asking whether or not you 'should' take the even money while card counting. What's the point of counting if you don't use your extra information?
To the AP and don't hedge comments, I definitely disagree. You are NOT an AP if you're hedging your bets on non-life changing amounts of money. If you're really an AP you don't see a few grand you just made, you see the $500-$1000 you just LOST in expectation by not doing the proper mathematical play. AP's are AP's for life, it's just the way the brain works. You're not playing for the here and now, you're playing for the long run (life). I personally will make the best bets I can mathematically make my entire life, outside of blackjack, etc. This will give me the greatest profit possible by the end of my life.
The biggest bet I think I've ever placed is probably about $300-$400 per hand. If I had a $1,000 bet up and blackjacked vs dealer ace (in an even or slightly negative count as asked in the question) I would never in my life take even money. If the dealer has it, so be it, but I know mathematically I'm going to win a lot more money in the long run by not taking even money, so let it fly; I'm seeking, the full amount. =)
Quote: beachbumbabsI can totally see Romes' point, but as a non-AP, I would absolutely take even money. Bird in hand and all that, since if your regular max bet is $100, that $500 probably exceeds your hope/expectation for the entire session. Take it, and get the hell up unless the dealer's so weak you are getting peeks on a regular basis.
Again, no issues with this, and also, my comments are directed towards counters/AP's (as that was in the original question). I mentioned I agree with Axel's point of entertainment players taking the even money because they're already -EV, so the money is a win to them at the time.
It sounds like you know how much better the 3:2 game is than the 6:5 game. You will find that many members here die a little inside when they hear someone is playing the 6:5 games. So, don't take it personally if you are scolded for playing it! :) There aren't too many $5 3:2 games left on the strip for us low-rollers, but if the Wizard's Blackjack Survey is accurate, they can still be found at Circus Circus & Excalibur. It's a crying shame that most of joints on the strip have taken a good game (3:2) and turned it into a lousy one (maybe lousy isn't the best word, because 6:5 still has a better edge than roulette or most "carnival" games), but often trekking to one of the places offering 3:2 is not practical. What's a red-chipper to do, right?
As to the current turn to this discussion, when I first started playing, I had to specifically ask for even money. I thought I was onto something! Now, I know better. These days, the dealers try hard to sell EM.
I'm not a counter, and I don't ever take insurance, but if I decided to stack up my chips and go all in on a single hand*, I would probably take even money. We're probably talking a few hundred here. Certainly not "life changing," but definitely "session changing" or even "trip bankroll changing."
Quote: IbeatyouracesYou're not allowed even money on a 6:5 game. But you are correct, if offered it, take it!
That's not universal. At our casino, you can inexplicably take even money on a BJ at a 6:5 table. This is insane for Hollywood Columbus, given that the rest of the casino is run by Ebenezer Scrooge.
So we are clear I'm not advocating anyone to take even money in most cases. Especially an AP. If you're going to play BJ play it correctly.Quote: RomesYou do have a point for those playing for entertainment, but I guess we'll respectfully disagree? =p. They won't be getting scooped for $500 with a blackjack, at worse, they'll push. You do have a point that they're already playing negative so why not take the even money? However, the original question I responded to was asking whether or not you 'should' take the even money while card counting. What's the point of counting if you don't use your extra information?
To the AP and don't hedge comments, I definitely disagree. You are NOT an AP if you're hedging your bets on non-life changing amounts of money. If you're really an AP you don't see a few grand you just made, you see the $500-$1000 you just LOST in expectation by not doing the proper mathematical play. AP's are AP's for life, it's just the way the brain works. You're not playing for the here and now, you're playing for the long run (life). I personally will make the best bets I can mathematically make my entire life, outside of blackjack, etc. This will give me the greatest profit possible by the end of my life.
The biggest bet I think I've ever placed is probably about $300-$400 per hand. If I had a $1,000 bet up and blackjacked vs dealer ace (in an even or slightly negative count as asked in the question) I would never in my life take even money. If the dealer has it, so be it, but I know mathematically I'm going to win a lot more money in the long run by not taking even money, so let it fly; I'm seeking, the full amount. =)
I'm talking all forms of AP hedging there's various forms of hedging or buying insurance (Smart poker players have been known to do it). The most important tool you have in AP IS MONEY. I have posted my thoughts on this before. There are absolutely correct times to hedge bets. It's different for everyone and their personal situation . Ill give an extreme example of someone who shroud( actually similar situations actually came up last football season for a few guys)
Let's say an under bankrolled AP only has a few hundred dollars. He makes a few +EV 6 team/2 point parlays, a couple $50's and a $100 bet. Lets say for argument sake someone will loan him the money to hedge and hold the ticket if hes wins 5 going on 6. Sure enough going into the Monday night game he's got 5. If he misses he's out of AP and has to get a job.
Meanwhile he hears about some incredible promotion going on. He needs approximately no more or no less than the amount he would receive if he hedges. This promotion will most likely quadruple his bankroll.
Most successful AP's I know have hedged at on time or another while giving up a small amount of EV. I have seen a few situations had someone not hedged they would've been out of AP. to significantly add to you're bankroll if you can put the money to good use is not a bad AP move. I'm not saying someone should hedge every chance they get.
I have Hedged, bought insurance, sold off some EV and various things like that many times in the past to lock up a profit, and I will continue to do so when i feel its the right thing to do, as long as I'm not giving up more EV than the entire play is worth.
It's basically a form of bankroll management.
Along the same lines. Give me a progressive worth 7% where the 7% is all tied up in a 100k to 1 shot. Or give me 5% on some promotion that's almost a lock to win( lets say double on 4oak's ) I'll take the 5% play any day of the week.
It's easy to sit scoff at someone and say you shouldn't do something or never would when it's not actually happening. I want to see it in action.
I always hear people crying about, "jf only they could get .5 or better on higher denomination VP." And how they would be hammering it all day. Then you tell them about something that's .8 and you suddenly get a different story. Same story with .5+ on BJ for $300+ a hand. I come across s%it and no one will play it.
Some people can't admit stuff but I can. Call me a bad AP for admitting I will give up some EV for guaranteed money that's absolutely fine with me.
Quote: AxelWolfLet's say an under bankrolled AP only has a few hundred dollars.
If he has that little money, the bets he was making were either not with an advantage, or were so small they were worth less than an hour of mopping floors at McDonald's
Further, there is no such thing as a promotion worth $1000+ that does not have decent possibility of wiping out a three figure bankroll.
In the examples with sports bets: buying off a six-team parlay isn't necessarily a Disadvantage Play. But if someone is going to do so without at least close break-even, why wouldn't they have just played a five team parlay instead and saved themselves 4.5%?
Quote:Some people can't admit stuff but I can. Call me a bad AP for admitting I will give up some EV for guaranteed money that's absolutely fine with me.
Giving up EV is not the definition of hedging. In fact, until you're earning about six figures per year, giving up EV is part of Advantage Play: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
(but if a single hand of black jack is so big that Kelly would say to take insurance without a high count, the bet was probably over Kelly to begin with, which means it wasn't AP ... I guess the possible exception might be a "free-ace" coupon. Is anyone really finding one of those that lets them bet $500?)
Quote: beachbumbabssince if your regular max bet is $100, that $500 probably exceeds your hope/expectation for the entire session.
For a lot of us, our "session" started around 1992 and hasn't ended yet
Quote: TomGFor a lot of us, our "session" started around 1992 and hasn't ended yet
Point taken.
Quote: TomGFor a lot of us, our "session" started around 1992 and hasn't ended yet
Is there some specific event that happened in 1992? Legalization in more places?
On April 1, 1991, riverboat casinos opened in Iowa. I believe those were the first in the nation. Other states added casinos soon after, including Colorado, and Illinois.Quote: VenthusIs there some specific event that happened in 1992? Legalization in more places?
First off that was an example of something that could happen there's many different scenarios that could come up. The person could've had a big bankroll just before or while he made the bets and something tragic happened. It's irrelevant what bets are made or why, its after the fact and now a decision needs to be made.Quote: TomGIf he has that little money, the bets he was making were either not with an advantage, or were so small they were worth less than an hour of mopping floors at McDonald's
Further, there is no such thing as a promotion worth $1000+ that does not have decent possibility of wiping out a three figure bankroll.
In the examples with sports bets: buying off a six-team parlay isn't necessarily a Disadvantage Play. But if someone is going to do so without at least close break-even, why wouldn't they have just played a five team parlay instead and saved themselves 4.5%?
Giving up EV is not the definition of hedging. In fact, until you're earning about six figures per year, giving up EV is part of Advantage Play: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
(but if a single hand of black jack is so big that Kelly would say to take insurance without a high count, the bet was probably over Kelly to begin with, which means it wasn't AP ... I guess the possible exception might be a "free-ace" coupon. Is anyone really finding one of those that lets them bet $500?)
There's been many plays and opportunities that require a very small bankroll and have a high probability of winning and significant bankroll boosting power. I'm not going to post that type of information on a public forum just to prove something. However I'm willing to make a significant wager in private.
I realize there's break even or good hedging opportunities as well. Were obviously not talking about that. We probably wouldn't be having this conversation if taking even money was +EV at the time.
The reason I talked about the other stuff is because the entire no hedging/insurance thing is all about not giving up EV. There's various forms of hedging.
You should NOT hedge in situations where you are frequently hedging. For example, a don't-player in craps who bets the hard-way for whatever the point is. Or even worse, the guy who does $100 don't-bets then will make something like a $50-100 place bet on whatever the point is. In other words, it should not be part of your regular "game plan" for playing.
Of course, this isn't the same as let's say, if you bet a parlay in sports (like Axel alluded to), and you're looking at a hefty payday if your final game comes through.
Hedge if it's some life-changing (or even big amount, not necessarily life-changing) amount.
